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Friday, December 14

Snowstorm or NO Storm? Continued...


Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Here we go...again...with the Nor'easter, or "out to Sea'ster, as Scott calls it. (LOVE IT!). Anyway, here are the two models in question side-by-side. There are, of course, big differences in the two on the time, strength, and even if there will be a storm late next week. The GFS develops a storm on Wednesday (almost out to sea), with another, much weaker low moving in by late Thursday and into Friday. The EURO brings the storm a little further inland on Wednesday, but quickly develops another strong double-barreled low by Thursday night and into Friday. With both of these scenarios being almost a week away, I'm not going to hang my hat on EITHER of them! But, both of the models are hinting at 1) an atmosphere cold enough to support snow, and 2) enough moisture to potentially give us our first area-wide, GROUND COVERING snowfall. Will it happen? Who knows yet! It's just too far away.

175 comments:

  1. Don't care, as long as there is safe travel for Christmas Eve and Day.

    ReplyDelete
  2. My guess is, NOPE!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Disagree this is one to keep an eye on!

    ReplyDelete
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  5. The GFS went from a weak system to a great lakes cutter, with cold air moving in behind with some snow. Anyone who is currently relying solely on these models to make a forecast for this storm must've pulled out half of their hair by now.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Some good news here---Finally there is something to watch and regardless of whether we get snow from this storm or not, it looks like we are getting colder. These seem to be positive winter indicators.

    The glass is half-full as opposed to half-empty.
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Definitely. Better still, there are subtle hints at fundamental changes in the Pacific pattern, which if true would mean the cold won't be fleeting.

      Delete
  7. I was just going to ask if people are thinking that the cold will stick around for a while this time? One 7 day forecast i saw (forgot which station) had cold next wednesday but then showed like 49 on Thursday! and then another station had next week toward end of it staying cold in the upper 20's. I like to look at all the stations 7 days to see if they are all about the same of if one is way out of whack.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I was hoping for a nice storm. But, it looks like Ill have to wait until the next big thing comes along and then heads out to sea before it gets here.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm a little suspicious about any cold air hanging around. Something seems out of whack.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'm not quite sure what to make of the 12z Euro. It shows one storm early next week as a complete scorcher in our area with almost all rain, then develops a strong great lakes low that becomes completely encased in cold air as it passes over WNY over the weekend. This is truly a chaotic pattern coming up, still not prudent to rely on models for next week.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Agree with Anon have to wait until Sunday or early next week. You are right about the 12z Euro. I still think it is going to surprise all of the snowlovers.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Next week still has many questions. Would not be surprised to see frozen precipitation in Western NY. The other thing that I feel is a strong chance for major LES next weekend into Christmas. The favorite areas could be measuring this snow in feet. Just my opinion looking at the latest information.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Andrew: NO no no no. My anxiety level just went up. I'm all for a white Christmas, just not a Christmas storm.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Favorite areas means not Rochester. If Lake effect it will be East or SW of Rochester as it usually is.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do words and phrases like "uncertainty" and "model chaos" mean ANYTHING to you? And just because the favored areas bear the brunt doesn't mean Rochester gets nothing. See: December 2010.

      Delete
  15. Last paragraph from the most recent NWS BUF AFD. Pretty much summarizes what's been said here and should make some snow lovers a little giddy:

    WILL KEEP THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM VERY BROAD DUE TO
    SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STORM LOCATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
    AND EARLY LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
    COLDER WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
    HAS BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE NORTHERN US WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
    HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CREATED BY SOME BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH
    ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
    WEST AND DEEP CUT OFF TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE
    UNDER THIS TROUGH A SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
    AND TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST COAST WHERE THE 12Z MODELS
    AGGRESSIVELY DEEPEN THE LOW BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE PART OF THE
    NORTHEAST AND A POSSIBILITY OF MORE LAKE EFFECT EAST OF THE
    LAKES.

    So maybe...just maybe...those calls two weeks ago for a colder pattern after mid month weren't just a pipe dream after all.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Do I cancel my Christmas travel plans and stay home? This looks ominous. Airport delays... no trip to Grandma's house :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not yet. Still too much uncertainty, it'll be several days until the situation becomes clear. Lots of changes could occur between now and then regarding the forecast.

      Delete
    2. I wouldn't be canceling any Christmas travel plans on December 14th..lol.

      I'm wishing the model runs were a little more consistent. Even the -NAO isn't going to bring TRUE Arctic air.. just seems models shouldn't be flailing the way they are.

      I've been wrong every time I've said anything so far this winter..so hopefully all this talk of cold and snow comes true.

      Delete
  17. Nice timing for this mess with all the people trying to travel.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe a mess. Maybe. I cannot stress this enough: UNCERTAINTY.

      Delete
  18. enough with the crap about travel - we can all handle it - buy a freaking plane ticket, take a bus, snow shoe (hopefully) - and thank God Macedon has taken a break - Andor rew gets his act together (of course it won't last) and someone else takes over the mantle of either whining or being arrogant.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Classic post! Love it!
      Andy

      Delete
  19. Still Hopefull Hamlin PlowerDecember 14, 2012 at 5:28 PM

    I love sitting back reading new blogs, realizing how fickle the bloggers on this page realy are. Most jump back and forth about winter on every new model run. BLOGGERS ARE SAYING ITS GOING TO SNOW, BIG STORM, THEN NO IT WILL NOT SNOW ALL WINTER SAME AS LAST YEAR STORM GOES WEST. Very funny and just alittle silly.

    The only thing for sure is the weather is getting more active and more exciting. It also APPEARS as though the weather will become more wintery for the middle of December POSSIBALY going into January.

    The only other thing we know for sure is NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THIS NEXT STORM WILL DO LET ALONE TH WHOLE WINTER.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Replies
    1. Thanks Ollie.

      Delete
    2. Absolutely beautiful XD

      In the meantime, I do believe Scott just said we are definitely entering a more wintry pattern for next week. Times are a changin'

      Delete
  21. Why are the models always all over the place all the time? What good are models if you cannot trust them. It seems like you cannot trust them until the day before a storm hits and even then they could be wrong. It seems that technology in predicting weather is getting worse rather than better. It seems that forecasting weather is a guessing game.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Put simply, numerical models such as the GFS and the ECMWF attempt to predict the weather using a series of equations that are impossible to solve precisely, so they are approximated iteratively instead. The errors in these approximations increase further out in time, which is why these models are so inaccurate at longer ranges and somewhat imprecise at shorter ranges.

      Delete
  22. Farmington Snow LoverDecember 14, 2012 at 7:22 PM

    Models just predict what they think will happen based on what they see (thats my novice explanation, i am probably wrong). i don't think we are getting worse at predicting weather, its just that people expect to know sooner an sooner about potential storms etc, and its just not possible for the most part. And people in this day in age expect to get things fast and as soon as possible so we all want to know that snow is coming to make us feel good even before the storm has formed. Just sit back and if you watch models, don't get worried from run to run. Scott always said models are only ONE of the tools he uses. I am liking what i have been reading so far about next week but won;t get all worked up yet, too soon, been let down before. learned my lesson this winter from last.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anon, the formulas these models use are around 29 lines of equations. With that many variables, a slight change in any number can drastically alter the equation, thus causing the constant flip flopping with each run. That's why it's better to look at trends and leave the fine tuning to a few days out. All as I know is forecasting weather is a ridiculously challenging task, and the News 8 team does a damn good job at doing it and making it look easy!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Unless I am missing something the models show the storm at the end of next week cutting West and then a SW to West wind for lake effect which would not include Lake effect snow for Buffalo, Rochester or Syracuse.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Not to get my hopes up, but things look to get interesting Thursday night into Friday, Yes, far away, but something to talk about none the less.... Reminds me a little of Dec. 2008. When storms were cutting across out of midwest then bombing out on coast. Rather than coming up from the south and always having us on the western edge of Precip. field and getting next to nothing... Lets see how things look Monday....

    ReplyDelete
  26. Early week looks like a rain to snow event how quickly will the cold air move in will be the question. Late weeks stronger storm also looks like a rain to snow event. There looks to me much more cold air for this storm to work with. If this storm does infact redevelope on the coast how quickly will that happen and how fast will the cold air move in. I think it is more likely that the late weeks storm will cut slightly west or go directly over head. I think it will be mostly rain with cold and lake inhanced snows at the end. Hopefully the cold air is here to stay for awhile after.

    I agree with David very intresting fun to watch as we head towards Christmas.

    BTW, to the person woried about getting to Grandmas house if it snows on Christmas. If she lived in Hamlin you wouldnt have to worry because I will have to miss Christmas Plowing snow so people can get to there relatives houses if it is snowing. SO STOP COMPLAINING I DONT.

    ReplyDelete
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  28. Get ready Chicago, Michigan for a nice snowstorm by Thursday and Friday. For us, unfortunately for snow lovers, RAIN changing to a LITTLE snow after the low passes. The GFS and Euro have the low almost in the same place passing West of us. They have been pretty consistent.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Give it a break! Seriously!

      Delete
  29. Macedon..... Can I have you lottery and horse track picks as well.. Good Grief.....

    ReplyDelete
  30. Farmington Snow LoverDecember 15, 2012 at 12:31 PM

    Macedon,

    You are looking almost a week out, and you sound so sure of this. I would be careful jumping to conclusions too soon. There is a lot of room for change on this. Lets keep an open mind.

    On an unrelated note, I haven't been too concerned with the weather outlook after what happened yesterday in Conneticut. I have been praying for those familes who lost a loved one and we should all keep that whole community in our prayers. As an educator myself, I can't imagine having something like that happen where I teach or for my kids.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Can't fix a broken record it seems...

    So far the track of the storm late next week would be just to the west of our region, but a sizable amount of cold air gets entrained in the system resulting in a changeover to snow. The NWS discussion mentions the possibility of the first significant area-wide snowfall of the season, so this is certainly one to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  32. It is weird that you cannot give your opinion on this Blog without people saying you are complaining. Very strange. I am giving my opinion people. Grow up please.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All we ask is that you contribute something other than whining. And stop being such a downer all the time, especially when hope is afloat for snow opportunities.

      Delete
  33. Yes Macedon, opinions are welcome. But i don't care if michigan is going to get snow out of it or not. it could miss them for all we know.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Question that hopefully will get people talking about something else....... How much of a years worth of snow on average comes from lake effect? 65%?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. About 50 percent of our snow on average comes from lake effect. The other 50 percent is mostly due to clippers and the occasional larger storm system.

      Delete
  35. Wheres the news 8 team for a little "expert" commentary....

    ReplyDelete
  36. I think the 0z and 12z Euro have a good handle on next Thursday/Fridays storm. Low pressure Tracking over head or slightly west. Looks to be another near miss. Mostly rain from low, then going to snow with wind, cold and lake effect snow to end. How quickly will the Low exit the Northeast? How long will the cold last? Will late next weeks storm be the patern changer?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not even sure that it's mostly rain, as the Euro depicts a lot of cold air becoming entrapped in the low. Little doubt we'll start off as rain, but if the Euro track was to be believed we would see mostly snow. The GFS track is far less favorable, as it would only serve to bring a windy cold front through the region.

      Delete
  37. Don't give up on this one yet the Euro isn't looking too bad at all. All we can do is wait but at least now there is something to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I agree Jo-sef..... still over 5 days away, little shift 50 miles south, or east and were golden.... Its almost better to be not in the sweet spot so many days out, because every storm will move around the models until a day or two away... No model huggin this far out. Looks like a storm is going to happen more and more likely, hopefully were in it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed and even if it plays out like Hamlin Plower illustrated which is not an unlikely scenario, I will welcome the lake effect. My gut says we are at least getting more than a dusting but we will see.

      Delete
  39. I am not being arrogant here and do not want to get tossed off the blog again. I just try to tell it like I see it either way. I did say when Scott gave me the pass back that this was going to be a big storm next week. I stand by this! This will be a big size snow storm for someone. I believe central/western NY will be in the sweet spot. I also mentioned some big LES could set up for those favorite spots which could include the Rochester metro. I agree with the rest of you Monday will give us better answers. Also after this storm goes through late next week cold air will settle in for an extended time.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I will welcome any snow we can get and I agree about model hugging. Way to early to be certain. Time will tell and we can all hope for a nice storm. We might not want to forget about Tuesday/Wednesday yet either, who knows, very interesting and exciting next week.

    ReplyDelete
  41. I do not mean to be a downer as everyone states I am, but I just do not see it. All channels and models are showing temps near 50 by Thursday with that storm cutting West. Cold air will filter in behind the cold front and some will receive lake effect, but it will be very localized. I see no BIG storm here at all. I hope I am wrong, I really do, but I do not see us getting a lot of snow, if any. Again, this is just my opinion. I hope Andrew is right.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you do not see the potential, then you are blind. And it's one thing to have an opinion, it's another thing entirely to be flat out wrong. Both the NWS and Channel 8 have a high near 40 on Thursday NOT 50, and we know that both of those organizations tend to get it right more often than not. The Weather Channel does as well. Channel 10 has a high near 50, but their forecasts aren't very believable beyond 3 days. There are models that show a cutter, and there are others like the Euro that show a storm over the lower lakes transferring its energy to the coast. True, this might not end up being a big storm for us, or even a significant one, but at least SOME snow is a pretty safe bet.

      These are not my opinions, these are facts.

      Delete
  42. "If you do not see the potential, then you are blind. And it's one thing to have an opinion, it's another thing entirely to be flat out wrong. Both the NWS and Channel 8 have a high near 40 on Thursday NOT 50",

    I just watched Stacey at 6--her forecast for Thurs is 48 a lot closer to 50 than 40. So I don't know where your "facts" are coming from.
    I hope Macedon is right about this and Andrew is wrong. Unfortunately, Andrew's record is pretty good so you snow lovers may get your wish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I got near 40 from the 7 day forecast graphic on this website, which apparently needs to be changed. Still, nothing else that I said is wrong.

      Delete
  43. Farmington Snow LoverDecember 15, 2012 at 6:51 PM

    anonymous...do you not like snow? hoping that macedon is right?

    ReplyDelete
  44. When has Andrew EVER BEEN CORRECT. He is more often than not incorrect. If you where paying attention earlier you would have saw that Andrews big storm prediction he was talking about was for Tuesday's storm not Fridays. HE DOEST HAVE A CLUE WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT. He is so full of SH&^ that he even thinks he is the king of forecasting.
    Just keeping it real as I see it.

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  45. I take what he says with a grain of salt but it is nice to hear everyones take and predictions on things.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Farmington Snow LoverDecember 15, 2012 at 7:32 PM

    anonymous who said you watched the 6pm weather and stacy said high of 48...check YOUR facts! 7 day forecast on 8's website shows a high of 40 on thursday, take that LOL. hows that for facts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On the Ch 8 News at 6 and 11--high of 48 on Thurs.

      Delete
  47. Farmington. That forecast on this website has not been updated yet. It still shows the Saturday forecast. Once it is updated you will see it will change to a high of 48. The storm Thursday is going West. Sorry that is a fact. I love snow as much as anyone else, but this December will go down as one of the least snowiest months ever. A green Christmas is in the cards again. It will get colder by weeks end and all we can hope for is a little lake effect, but not all will see it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The least snowy month ever had zero inches, so you're already wrong on that one.

      Snarkiness aside, how can you be so dead certain about all of this when there is still two weeks left in the month and all manner of uncertainty in the models regarding next weeks storm? Oh right I forgot, model outputs never change over time and there has never been uncertainty in a forecast for one week in the future.

      I don't think you're quite getting it so I'll say it more emphatically this time: YOU THINK YOU ARE BEING REALISTIC BUT YOU ARE NOT. YOUR IDEA OF REALISTIC HAS BEEN WARPED BY A PERVASIVE NEGATIVE ATTITUDE. Even if the worst case scenario actually happens as you've described it then what, dare I ask, is the harm in having a little optimism before it does? Do you not like when people are optimistic? Do you get yourself off to crushing people's hopes? Here's my advice to you: get off this blog for awhile and see a psychiatrist, because you are not well in the head my friend.

      Delete
    2. You are being a little harsh my friend. I am just giving my opinion. I am not being negative. Calm down. I hope I am wrong. Wow, I think you need to seek some help.

      Delete
    3. I agree with Macedon. People had a problem with Andrew?? This guy above is a real head case.

      Delete
  48. ok whatever. I still say its a week away and I don't know how you can be so darn sure you know what the outcome will be. I like to have a little bit of hope, gives you something to look forward to...what are you looking forward to, hoping yuor forecast of no snow comes true?

    ReplyDelete
  49. You guys are funny. I love the weather, almost to the point of obsession at times...but it's just weather kids.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The point is that we're trying to enjoy each other's company here on this lovely blog, and discuss the weather and obsessively speculate on storms and such, and some negative nancy is trying to ruin it with his constant pessimism. I could just ignore it if not for the fact that I used to be like that, and it kills me to see someone else falling victim to the same problems.

      Delete
    2. Anon, how is it being negative giving an opinion. Do you not think I want to say we are going to get a BIG snowstorm?? Believe me I do. This blog is to give opinions and what we think may happen. Anytime anyone goes against what you think may happen you get bent out shape. Calm down. You guys did the same to Andrew who also just gave his opinion. Merry Christmas.

      Delete
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  51. Guys. I hope it snows too. I love snow and am very frustrated. I am just looking at the models and history and patterns and giving an opinion. I wish I could say it looks good for snow but the models are now being consistent in bringing the end of the week storm West of us. I hope that changes.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Wheres channel 8 on here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think they are done dealing with our nonsense lol

      Delete
  53. Macedon, your problem is that you're so quick to jump on the worst case scenario when it is far from evident that it will occur that way. You do it every single day for every single situation, and it got old weeks ago. I have a similar problem with people who jump on the best case scenario too early, but at least their cheery disposition doesn't make them unpleasant.

    I would agree with you on the idea of a full blown great lakes cutter, IF it was clear that that scenario will occur. Which it isn't, not by a long shot. There are still several scenarios being depicted by the models, they are far from being in agreement with each other and probably won't be for a few days at least. As for my opinion, I would go with a period of rain followed by a period of moderate snowfall then a few days of lake effect, mostly in the favored areas but occasionally moving through metro Rochester. A big storm is unlikely but still on the table, so don't throw that idea out yet.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Just FYI... Storm isnt Thursday.. Friday and Saturday.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Also read the huge article talking about the system from NWS... Still very alive. And not to plug another Blog, but Accuweather has excellent forums with very knowledgeable people...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. +1 for AccuWx forums, the people there are awesome.

      Delete
  56. It will snow. Not too sure about a Nor Easter or anything like that, but I do think we will get some snow. Probably wont stick around for XMas though....and that is the part that sucks the most.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wouldn't be so sure about the snow not sticking for Xmas, some indications are that the cold will stick around through that week. We shall see what actually transpires.

      Delete
  57. GFS and NAM models dont even have Tuesdays storm figured out yet. The latest runs trend Low Pressure further East. It may be a more snow event in Western New York.

    The point is Tuesdays storm is not set in stone yet and everyone is fighting over the end of next week. Some snowfalls sneak up and bite us when we are not looking.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Agree Hamlin! Our biggest storms seem to come crop up last minute. How many storms from 5-7 days out on a model verify exactly? They show a storm, and where it goes, nobody knows until a day or 2 out....

    ReplyDelete
  59. The only thing working against Tuesday's storm being a snow producer is the lack of cold air involved. We saw this a few times last year where a storm would move to a favorable spot, but the lack of cold air kept us mostly or all rain. Besides, the late week storm appears to be the stronger of the two by leaps and bounds, and will likely draw in a sizable chunk of arctic air unlike the Tuesday system. Ideally for me we would get snow out of both, but I don't quite see it happening for the Tuesday storm.

    ReplyDelete
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  61. 0z GFS is still at odds with the Euro regarding the storm late next week, albeit a touch further south. Still tries and fails to transfer its energy to a secondary coastal low, which is depicted much more robustly on the Euro. Will be interesting to see if the 0z Euro holds its ground or caves to the GFS.

    ReplyDelete
  62. The weather team updated there forecast for Friday... Says "snow for all" :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It says "snow for all?" as a question, because we still might get shafted. 0z GFS is a fail not only with the storm itself but also with the cold behind the storm, as it zips away pretty quickly and a zonal flow re-establishes. I don't know if I want to buy that considering the developing west-based blocking pattern.

      Delete
  63. Of course, still far out. we will see...

    ReplyDelete
  64. Stacey seems to be really down playing (at 11) any major event for next weekend. She indicates it will snow enough to cover the ground but "no big deal" -- hope she is right.
    Horrible time for a big event too many people traveling.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Every model has lost the cold following the late week storm and they now indicate a more transient arctic shot, before a return to the zonal status quo. Worse yet, the Euro has done as I feared and caved to the GFS solution, bringing nothing more than a gusty cold front. Still plenty of time for things to change, but this is a significant step back for our too-long awaited pattern change.

    ReplyDelete
  66. This surprises you in what way? I am just as frustrated with this pathetic start to the winter like everyone else, but this December could go down in history as one the snowless of all times. A green christmas will happen with no snow in site. This is the way this winter will be. Storms to our West with a very brief cold shot and a few flakes before it warms up again. The mets keep talking about a pattern change. It is not going to happen so stop predicting what you do not know. Other channels are worse. First it was Dec 10, then Dec 17th. Both have come and gone with no pattern change. Give it up guys. This winter will be worse than last years with much less snow than 50 inches. This could be a winter with 20-30 inches like 1933-34 I believe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait a minute! You just predicted not only next week, but the entire winter and then tell us to stop predicting the future because we don't know?

      Delete
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  68. The models now even take the end of the week storm further West. I bet we exceed 50 degrees on Thursday or Friday depending on its strength. We may get a few snow showers once it passes but that is it. WHat a beautiful picture out of Flagstaff Arizona. They had about 9 inches of snow yesterday and it was wet so it stuck to the trees. It was a beautiful Christmas postcard. It made me jealous and longing for snow.
    Oh well, I can keep dreaming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What scientific analysis are you using to draw that conclusion, or is it just a wild guess?

      It just seems that your overly negative & sweeping predictions aren't based on science or data, but rather emotion or gut. Also your view of the past also seems to be driven by emotion and not data either. For example a couple weeks ago you said you're moving to Canada because we don't have real winters anymore. But the fact is that since 2000 we've averaged over 100" which is about 10" above the historical average since 1940. Just look at the data, it doesn't support your sentiment.

      2000-01 133
      2001-02 58.1
      2002-03 135.2
      2003-04 125.6
      2004-05 113.6
      2005-06 73.9
      2006-07 107.2
      2007-08 106
      2008-09 103.7
      2009-10 89.2
      2010-11 127
      2011-12 59.9

      I know it's frustrating to not have had any snow. It especially sucks if your income depends on it. But the fact is that next weeks storm is too far out to draw any solid conclusions and be negative as your doing, or be overly positive about it hitting us either. I'd rather not be in the strike zone this far out, because I can't count the number of storms we were sure to get that never happened.

      Andy

      Delete
    2. Hopefully we are going back to winters of the 30s-60s where 70-90" was a norm with over 100" a rare exception. The anomaly has been the last 20 years not what we are getting now. That is in regards to snow. It IS warmer now than back then. Just an added bonus.

      Delete
  69. Sorry, Flagstaff received 8.6" on Friday and 11.7" on Saturday. Wow. Very very jealous.

    ReplyDelete
  70. MAcedon,

    You are predicting less than 50 inches of snow....that is pretty bold. where are your "facts". I wouldn't be jumping on you because i know thats just your opinion, but i hate to say it, but you are slowly becoming the new Andrew, sounding like you know everything and somehow have a crystal ball. And everybody else must be wrong because one person from Macedon says its so.

    Everyone has their own opinions on what they think will happen. Just don't be so quick to shoot down everyone else this so far out.

    And news 8 probably isn't on here because this blog, while their are some exceptions, has become a high school drama party with so much back and forth its getting old. I am as guilty of it as the next. Lets try to stay upbeat all of us.

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  71. Farmington, I have never said anyone is wrong nor do I say I am right. I hope my guess does not come true. I am just going by what I have been seeing. Everytime it looks like the pattern will change it does not. We are in the same rut as last year. I want the pattern to change, but the bottom line is it has not and does not look to for the rest of December. I am not shooting down anyone elses opinion. Everyone has the right to post what they think will happen without being put down or being told they need to see a psychiatrist. That is just childish.

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  72. ok, point taken, lets see what comes about later today and early this week.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Gates, All I know is a pattern change has been predicted, pretty much by all for the last several weeks. Every few days it keeps getting pushed back. I remember some saying it would begin around December 10th, saying there are many signs pointing to a change. Now it looks like sometime next year when, and if the pattern changes to winter. I'm sure there is slight hope for a white Christmas, but every day that passes, the odds are increasing against it.

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  74. Do not give up hope yet snow lovers at minimun big LES for some starting next weekend.

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  75. Is there validity to someone saying that the cold is not sticking around and the pattern is not changing or is that just speculation?

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  76. Well it looked promising.. MJO going to phase 1..West based -NAO.. crashing SOI. What happened?

    ReplyDelete
  77. I think news 8 team is all hungover from last nights xmas party....

    ReplyDelete
  78. Models are still all over the place, they show cold, they show a storm... to say where it is going to go at this point impossible. Some models have it OTS, some have it going west and getting rain here. Some have us getting clobbered.... Time will tell...

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  79. Farmington - like everything, it's speculation. My guess...not better than anyone else's...is that any storm we get won't result in sustained cold as it swirls out of here counter-clockwise. That is because the PNA is still negative, meaning there is west-coast troughing of the jet stream. As long as there is a trough out west (which is why Flagstaff, AZ is getting so much snow), I don't think we will have prolonged cold. The forecast is showing the PNA going positive by the end of the month, which indicates that the trough will dissipate. First, that has to come true. Second, the NAO is neutral, which does not lend itself to a particularly stormy pattern or blocking for a conduit of cold Canadian air. At least the AO is negative.

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  80. Neither of the last two GFS runs create as much of a zonal flow after the storm as the 0z did, with a slight moderating trend followed by a return to seasonably cold. The storm itself would still slide a gusty cold front through with some residual lake effect, but not really too big a deal, although at least minor accumulations would occur for most. A pattern shift is still certainly in the cards, just not a complete flip to a western ridge/eastern trough. Figures that the NAO exits negative territory the moment the Pacific pattern becomes a bit more favorable, but we can still see a stormy pattern with a -AO a la December 2008. Also FWIW, the HPC is much more optimistic than any model regarding the storm and the pattern following it, and this could easily be another case of the the models latching onto a pattern change, losing it and then showing it again at the last moment.

    The most frustrating thing it that the whole pattern change idea seemed like a slam dunk just 24 hours ago, and now it's completely in doubt. That pesky Pacific pattern just keeps screwing us over at every turn and toying with the models and our hopes. Still, do NOT cancel winter, or even the rest of this month, just yet. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having a little hope, especially when there is no way to know for sure what will happen. I'll say it again to drive the point home: THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND CHRISTMAS.

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  81. Good day! I simply wish to give an

    enormous thumbs up for the good data you could have here on this post.

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    ReplyDelete
  82. The Euro hasn't completed its run yet, but so far it's well south of its previous run for the late week storm. A beacon of hope in a sea of sh#t.

    ReplyDelete
  83. 12z Euro is a sizable improvement from the 0z, tracking the storm across NYS and keeping the cold around longer. The mood swings continue. I am beginning to wonder if all of this is healthy for me...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what site do you all go to to look at the forecast models?

      Delete
    2. Seriously, I hear you lol!!

      Delete
    3. There are threads on the AccuWeather forums where people like to post model outputs, but I've been going to the Penn State E-Wall site for model outputs.

      Delete
  84. News 8 team is hungover.....

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  85. The NWS is stating the end of week storm will move to our West or right over head. Either way it will be rain. They state the winds behind the system will be West which means normal areas East of the Lakes, SW of Rochester will get some snow. The rest of us, well, it does not look too good.

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    Replies
    1. Not sure how you conclude no snow.-- below is the hazardous weather outlook reads for rain changing to snow.


      HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
      313 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

      NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-172015-
      NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
      NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
      CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
      313 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

      THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
      YORK.

      .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

      THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

      .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

      THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING HIGH
      WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS WEEK. BEHIND THE STORM
      SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR MAY ALSO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST
      OF THE LAKES. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES
      IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY TRAVEL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

      Delete
  86. The weather this week looks ALL over the place with "warm storms" on Tuesday and Thursday, but Thursday's storm is really looking like it'll draw in enough cold air at the end of it for some synoptic snowfall by Friday, plus some decent lake effect on the northwest wind Friday/Friday night. That northwest flow looks like it wants to continue into the weekend, so I'm going with off and on lake snow. As of right now, I'd say a few synoptic inches on Friday, with a more significant event for those favored lake effect folks. I was telling Scott yesterday that my confidence in this week's forecast is fairly low, but I have a good feeling about this late week storm! Of course, it's 5 days out on top of the models being inconsistent. Call me an optimist (if you're looking for the snow).

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    Replies
    1. I've got a good feeling about it too, especially given the southward trend on some of the models. This isn't your garden variety cutter either, some back end snow for all seems like a pretty good bet at this point.

      Delete
  87. Macedon is a putz

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Grinch do us all a favor and get off this blog if you cannot say anything good. You are contributing nothing at all. What you are portraying is a negative and childish attitude. Lets grow up a little.

      Delete
    2. You accusing someone of being negative is like Santa Claus accusing someone of being fat. This post only confirms any suspicions that you might be a troll.

      Delete
    3. Macedon, how about you stop posting baseless nonsense like you did at 510PM. Because what you said isn't what the NWS is saying.

      Delete
    4. By the way. why don't you put your name on this blog instead of hiding behind anon.

      Delete
  88. Macedon on sports - "Bills look good today".

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  89. I move that we ignore Macedon from now on and let him wallow in pity by himself, because he is clearly not willing to see the bright side of anything. Plus the teenage melodrama is getting really old.

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  90. When is the next run for the models? Take it easy guys. starting to sound like some bullying going on, and that is pretty teenage melodramatic as well. How about you stop posting as "anonymous" so we can see who is making the comments. I think they should set the blog up so you can't post as anonymous, what do you guys think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm for that - unfortunately anyone could just create multiple names so it wouldn't solve the problem. For a while I was thinking Macedon was just Andrew. He's referenced Andrew quite frequently in the past and his analyses of the model runs have been so far off at times that it seems like trolling, and right when Andrew started getting positive Macedon began posting comments antithetical to him. Regardless, it would be best if at least the rest of us regulars on the blog could agree to ignore the crap and discuss the weather amongst ourselves which I plan to start doing...although sometimes I have to admit I find it all very funny. Speaking of weather, News 8 just said what I've been thinking (and the Euro HAS been indicating) for the past few days now - so thank you News 8 for joining us again and let's all have fun watching and waiting.

      Delete
    2. The next GFS run finishes around 11:45 tonight, the Euro around two hours afterward.

      I don't see the point in removing anonymous posting, because all it does is change the color of the mask. As in people can use a fake name or a fake social network account in order to post, sometimes even multiple names/accounts. Besides I'm not even sure if this blog's software would allow the removal of anonymous, and I'm definitely not sure if getting new software is feasible.

      Delete
  91. Farmington - next model run is currently in the process - the 0z, which occurs at midnight UK time, or 7:00pm EST. Should be done by around 10pm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's not quite how it works. 0z designates a run of a model, not the model itself.

      Delete
    2. Ok. Still learning this stuff!

      Delete
  92. Believe me, Jo-sef I am not Andrew. I am curious as to why you and others keep saying I am being negative when I am just giving my opinion. How many times do I have to say that. If one of the METS came on and said that we are not going to get snow from this storm and will be no big deal would you say he or she is being negative? I think not. Calling people a troll and throwing out nasty comments is childish. Can we just stick to the weather please? I hope it snows this week, I really do. In my opinion I just do not see alot. Anyting is better than nothing. Let it snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For the record, Macedon, I don't have a problem with you. :-)

      Delete
    2. If it was a Met saying it then we would not say they were being negative, as long as such an attitude was warranted. Which, in the case of pro mets, it almost always is because they know when to throw in the towel on certain events. The biggest reason people accuse you of being negative is because you say things like "this is going to be the most snowless december ever" and "this winter is going to be worse than last year" when we still have weeks left in the month and months left in the season, and no way to know for sure what will happen. Yet you seem so sure of yourself more often than not. It's a lot like watching a hockey game where your favorite team is losing 2-0 early, then saying "they're going to lose for sure and it will be the worst loss in team history." Negativity in this case is not just voicing an opinion devoid of optimism, it is throwing in the towel long before it is prudent to do so and biting on the worst scenario possible. This is what you do, a lot. And it's really annoying to read every. single. day. I can't tell you how many times I've wanted to throw in the towel on something way earlier than I should, just because things didn't look good at the moment and I began to let my emotions cloud my judgement. The key to beating that is to take a little breather, remember that old saying about the fat lady and her singing and get to a point where you can think logically again.

      Let's all calm down and enjoy the next seven days of weather, it could be quite an exciting time.

      Delete
    3. Good point anon. I guess I get so frustrated because of the lack of snow and how we continue to miss storms.

      Delete
    4. Believe me a lot of us are frustrated. The key is to not let it take over your mind, and realize that in the end it's not really that important.

      Delete
  93. Thanks Chris. Does anyone know the scientific reason why storms keep cutting West of us? Why don't they just slide East through the Ohio valley and South if us. They seem to always cut West or they are just too far South and East. Does anyone know? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Appalachian mountains

      Delete
    2. Agreed with David, Appalachians. Storms like to take the path of least resistance, and the Appalachians provide a path of most resistance. For us to be in the sweet spot storms need to track right along the western portion of the Appalachians, which is a very rare track but has happened before. March 8-9, 2008 comes to mind. Another way we can get big totals is for us to be on the western edge of a large storm along the east coast or on the coastal plain. This happens much more frequently, but typically the biggest snow amounts occur to our east. Valentines Day 2007 and Christmas 2002 come to mind here. There are also storms that move directly west to east in a cold zonal type flow (also known as a gradient pattern due to the tight north to south temperature gradient), they can occasionally be vigorous but tend to be fast movers and aren't as intense as coastal storms and great lakes cutters can be. December 2008 is a good example of this type of storm track, as we got a few decent storms in that gradient pattern but they were quick hitters.

      Sorry, I kinda geeked out a little there...

      Delete
    3. No need to apologize. I thought those cutters went that way because of the jet stream flow and high pressure ridging in the SE USA...?

      Delete
    4. The amount of ridging and the jet stream configuration govern whether a storm tracks west of the mountains or east of them. Unless there is a set of circumstances that gives a storm no other option but to track along the mountains instead, such as a very particular placement of strong high pressure systems.

      Delete
  94. Really? That is interesting. I could understand why that would be though. Thanks Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Storms tend to right up the coast east of mountains. Or ride up to the west, puts us in a weird spot for big storms. Our biggest storms have gone up the coast and right up the Hudson river.... Then that NE wind across the lake enhances Precipitation. Storms can hug the coast, but energy often transfers to the ocean..

    ReplyDelete
  96. December 2008 we had 3 storms in a row. The jet stream was cutting deep across the center of the country but then a weird ridge was over the Carolina's. The storms rode north from like Iowa, tapped into golf moisture, then cruised right acorss PA, west to east keeping us in the cold zone. If im not mistaken, Dec.2008 was our snowiest December on record? I remembers plowing like 200hours the month..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was our snowiest December until 2010, when we got a solid 2 weeks straight of deep freeze and lake effect. Oh how I miss those days. I was in Buffalo during those 3 storms in a row in 2008, though it was actually 4 for Buffalo because the last one was a lake effect storm. That one had some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen. 5 inches per hour with sustained winds over 30 mph, being outside in it felt surreal. Awfully fortunate that it happened on a Sunday, and mostly in the evening and overnight so that travel wasn't impacted too badly. 18 inches maximum in West Seneca, my house got a smidge over a foot and a 5 day total of over 30 inches.

      I hope no one has a problem with me reminiscing about a Buffalo storm, but that's where I grew up and I have quite a few fond memories of awesome lake effect snowstorms.

      Delete
  97. Buffalo sets up perfect on those SW winds. Lake Erie is shallow and can warm up quickly. And the long fetch just funnels the moisture into Buffalo. Rochester is tough for Lake Effect, unless we get a connection of Huron or Georgian Bay. Not enough lake fetch, especially Iroq. points west... But when we do get nice storms with NE winds, it can really pile up..... December 2008 I was in Antigua for my honeymoon and I was talking to the Chef who cooked us Christmas dinner on the beach. He was from some island in SE Asia and I asked him, what he wanted for Christmas, he said to see snow. He was in his mid 30's never seen a snow flake in his life. He was telling me his brother recently moved to Canada so he is going to go up there in the winter so he can finally see snow. And we complain about a 50" season. hahaha

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  98. 0z GFS still hangs on to the northern solution for the storm. Once again we are left hoping that the Euro holds tough. It nearly caved last night but then went back to its old idea. Still several days left to sort this out, but this would be a bad time for the GFS and Euro to swap roles.

    ReplyDelete
  99. GFS is trending more east and south than it was earlier in the day. Well see how tomorrow goes. No model hugging yet! There is going to be a storm, hopefully were targeted...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually it did trend south, I jumped the gun on my earlier post. Initially it looked like it was going to go way north again, even further north than the 18z run, but then it made a hard right and moved just north of Lake Ontario. Baby steps in the right direction. The Tuesday system looks a tad better too, but that one wasn't expected to do much in the first place.

      Delete
  100. After last year, its almost better to be out of the target zone this far out, then be surprised later :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh definitely. Remember the Groundhog Day Storm of 2011? We were in the sweet spot for that storm for five days leading up to it, but the models kept inching north with the track and the reality ended up being half as much snow as we were originally forecasted to get.

      Delete
    2. yes sir..... This will be fun to talk about the next few days and hopefully we get a winner! The NWS seems a little more giddy with their recent update... Lets see what tomorrow brings when everyone is back to work...

      Delete
  101. Here it is! The 0Z of the GFS! And the verdict is...it's still 5 days away! :) That being said, no major changes with the newest run, showing the cold air filtering in by Friday morning. Not a whole lot of synoptic moisture, but enough I think to coat the ground with . We are not in the sweet spot for any significant synoptic snowfall, but rather I still think the bigger story with this will be the lake effect/enhancement that sets up during the day on Friday and Saturday, probably through the weekend. Very windy and quite warm to start on Thursday, with some blowing snow a possibility through the first half of the weekend (where the biggest snow falls).

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  102. Whats holding back the synoptic moisture?

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  103. Lake enhancement can add up :-)

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  104. Let's hope for a clean miss. Today was soooooo nice. Shame for it to end.
    Looks like a "normal" week around 12/25 then potentially another warm up.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're all alone in that sentiment buddy, at least on this blog. Any talk of warmups or cooldowns after Christmas is not warranted as of now.

      Delete
  105. Yeah, this blog is definitely the 2%.
    NWS shows possible warm up post Christmas---keeping my fingers crossed.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Euro holds its ground. Maybe a whisker NW of its previous run. Just a whisker though, not any sort of major change to fret about.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Any updates from anyone on what the latest data is saying?

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  108. I was hoping the mets would chime in.. We are finally behaving ourselves too!

    ReplyDelete
  109. I still stay with what I felt before. We will be getting synoptic snow from the LP but the bigger event is the LES that will occur. I know that does not excite many because LES as Scott says is zip code snow. However those lucky spots will get a lot of snow!

    ReplyDelete
  110. Well, we can only hope for the Lake effect for areas near the lake and a little synoptic blessing for the rest. At least there is some hope.

    ReplyDelete
  111. But we aren't really talking storm, right? What about the period after (like Christmas Eve/Day)?

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  112. I still believe, in my unprofessional opinion, that we're in line for a moderate amount of synoptic/lake enhanced snow (3-6") from this event. The lake effect potential doesn't excite me too much personally, as it will likely be occurring on a westerly/west-northwesterly flow which favors areas well east and well southwest of Rochester. Still, the tug hill plateau and southern tier ski resorts getting thumped would be very nice for winter sports enthusiasts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And, 12:43, do you think this is mainly a Friday event, or an all-weekend thing?

      Delete
    2. Mainly Friday for metro Rochester, mainly early weekend for the snowbelts due to rather hefty lake effect. The new thread posted by John outlines some of the details.

      Delete
  113. I am so confused. Channel 10 states up to a 1ft North of the Thruway with much lesser amounts South of the Thruway. You are stating 1-3 North of the Thruway and much more South of the Thruway. How can different Meteorologists be so far off from each other. I am just going to go by what I see when the snow falls. It looks like next weeks storm is a West bounder again with Rain. Oh well!!!

    ReplyDelete

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