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Monday, December 17

SNOW AT LAST LATER THIS WEEK


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

A deep area of low pressure will track just to the West of our region Thursday night.  Initially this system will bring a period of showers and strong wind gusts with a strong cold front.  As colder air surges East on Friday morning, lake snow showers will begin to develop across the region.  The parent low may slow down over Eastern New York Friday night and Saturday.  IF this were to occur, a moist cyclonic flow could bring the first significant snowfall to Western New York.

We don't know how much snow will fall at this point but plow-able amounts are possible over most of the region with higher amounts in the elevations and normal lake effect areas Northeast of Rochester where over a foot of snow is easily possible.  Again this depends greatly on the track and speed of this system so stay tuned and KEEP BLOGGING!

233 comments:

  1. So far so good.

    ;D

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  2. Of all the sadness that surrounds us right now,a white Christmas would be beautiful!

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    Replies
    1. Well said, Tiffany! Couldn't agree more.

      Scott

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  3. Hey, we got one inside 5 days! Now for nail biting as we see what this system does. Feels like I've waited 18+ months for this.

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  4. I know this is still a few days away but would this storm change over to snow before dawn or are we talking sometime in the afternoon.

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  5. Lets not count our chickens before they hatch.

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    1. I'm not counting chickens...but at least now I can actually see the chicken coop.

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  6. The NWS is talking about it potentially snowing everday through Christmas. That would be awesome and perfect timing. I just do not want to get my hopes up yet but it is exciting.

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  7. Here's a prediction. This blog is going to explode between now and Friday.

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  8. Snow and cold just in time for winter, I would take it. When ever the lake is involved there is always the chance for huge disapointment. I remember being very disapointed last season with a lake effect event that never worked out. Hopefully there will be significant wrap around moisture and a slower moving storm once on the Vermont/NY border like the models are showing.

    I will beleive this scenario when I see it. I am hopefull for significant snow but not convinced we will get it. If nothing else it does look to be increasingly colder after Friday.

    Green christmas in Hamlin?

    Time will tell.

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  9. Whats the outlook for Christmas eve and Christmas Scott? Should we expect snow in the Rochester area those days?

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  10. Yeah Scottie! It feels good to have a snow map this far out. Lets hope it materializes - and I agree with Chris this blog is gonna blow up.

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  11. Yeah Scottie! It feels good to have a snow map this far out. Lets hope it materializes - and I agree with Chris this blog is gonna blow up.

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  12. Agree with the experts going to be STRONG winds and sizable LES for areas around Rochester. The elements are looking more and more like they are coming together and if they do you snow lovers are going to be happy, happy and happy. Still not a lock so stayed tuned to the experts and I am not saying I am one just tell it like I see it!

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  13. Scott,

    I'd rather not have snow! If I could brib you what would it take to say that the heat miesier will continue his 101 dannce? As we used to say in Arizona, " Don't have to shovel sunshine " I'll even throw in extra cash for Mother Nature,,if this helps any.

    Green Christmas--

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    Replies
    1. Why would you move from Arizona to Rochester? Usually the opposite happens, and it's because of the snow.

      And as we fair-skinned folk say, "you don't get sunburned by snow."

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    2. If the snow miser won't give us what we want maybe we can ask the burgermeister meisterburger let us have toys in Sombertown town this year. Signed Frosty

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    3. Is this JM from Rochester, Jimmy is this you.

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    4. Who dat Jimmy you speak of?

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  14. move south then, stop asking for no snow on here

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  15. Warm Lakes, Moist cold air.... Things looking good my friends!

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  16. This Friday/Sat will be interesting to watch still looks like great snow potential. Again, I have not heard about any concern with the winds? I think they will be STRONG! However, looking at latest information we have to keep our eye on a week from today and beyond. I know it is Christmas a week from today (Merry Christmas). But I am talking about the potential for a major, major storm somewhere in the east. All models are showing this potential. I know it is 7-10 days out but models showed the hurricane Sandy potential this early. Just throwing it out there. Track again will be the key and there is no way to tell that now. However there will be a huge storm next week in east.

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    1. That late week (next week) storm is lookin monstrous. It's way out there and I'm taking it one storm at a time here but at least it looks like change is finally coming.

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  17. Hi. Can we get a possible idea of travel impact over the weekend and into next week, since so many people will be traveling? My family and I, for example, have a Christmas party 30 miles east of Rochester on Saturday, then I have to be at church about 25 miles north of my house on Christmas Eve, and then we go and see family in WNY and Wayne Co. on Christmas Day. I wish we had never set up all this travel on Christmas Day. Every year I get freaked out about it, and there is nothing I can do about the weather. It is what it is. But each year I get myself all worked up about it.

    Don't get me wrong - I do like snow. I just hate driving in it when people do STUPID things. I've gotten to be such a grump in my "old" age. Now I have anxiety attacks over the possibility of having to drive in snow. What happened to me?

    One Christmas in particular sticks out in my mind: In 1978 or 79 I was in elementary school. There was no snow that year (that I remember) even until Dec. 24th. I was SO disappointed. Overnight, we got at least a foot. It was one of the most JOYFUL days ever. I even got my grandmother to go out in the snow with me. One of life's highlights. Even as a boy, I used to check the weather and pray for SNOW for Christmas. And when it would start to melt on Dec. 20th I would ask God that it would get colder again. Christmas 1982 was not Christmas because it was 62 outside!

    What happened to that little boy in me? Why did I get old? Where has that childlike joy gone?

    Now I have boys of my own, and they are just as excited as I once was. Their eyes are so big and bright, and my 6 year old was so excited to help me wrap presents yesterday. My 9 year old (who has autism) is finally "getting" Christmas. It used to be a horrible stress on him. Just overwhelming. This year he finally sat on Santa's lap for the first time. I cried. I really did.

    I guess all I want for Christmas is just one minute, no matter how fleeting, of being excited about snow coming for Christmas. I don't need an ipad or an iphone or some other gadget. I just want a moment of pure, unadulterated joy and excitement and release from the stupid anxiety of having to travel here and there for the holidays.

    I'm sorry about the rant. It's just been a hard go lately. Hey, at least we have family to see. At least my kids are alive.

    Thanks for reading, and Merry Christmas!

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    1. Nicely written. I fondly recall that big snow Christmas eve circa 1978. It was memorable because there was no snow on the ground and then suddenly Christmas eve it started and we woke up to a winter Wonderland.

      Safe travels

      Andy

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    2. I remember the miracle snow on Christmas Eve that year! I think it was 1978. Our minister told the people who had prayed for a White Christmas to stop praying lol. I also remember 1982. My husband and I still talk about it. I was miserable because it was so warm. Something we decided early on when our kids were little was to let everyone come to our house instead of driving around all over the county to see the relatives. We've been married 30 years this year, 4 grown kids and so far everyone still comes here! I assume that will change when the grandchildren come but for now it's awesome. Hopefully for everyone's sake we will get a nice snow cover this weekend, make everything look like a Christmas card, and then the roads won't be bad for everyone driving and trying to get to friends' and relatives' homes on Monday and Tuesday. ENJOY THE SNOW AND INSTILL A JOY OF WINTER IN YOUR KIDS!!! If we have to live here we may as well enjoy the beauty of what God gives us all four seasons :) Merry Christmas :)

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    3. No rant - I think stories like yours are why we are all on here hoping for some snow (except for the anti-snow creeps) - and I remember that Christmas - the snow coated everything - looked like the scene in Christmas Story when Ralphie looks out the window on Christmas morning. One notch below the snow was getting the greatest hand held game ever - Mattel electronic football

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    4. Thanks for your replies, all three of you. They did quite a bit to cheer me up. Grinch: actually, I never had Mattel FB - but that magic snow Christmas, I did get Simon and Merlin! Now, that was GREAT!

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    5. Hi guys, this is so strange, I had just been talking to my wife about that 1978 surprise Xmas snow yesterday!..its so cool that you guys were talking about it on this blog!! I had just turned 9, I was in Buffalo, were I grew up. By the way, I have been following this blog since it began, every winter, as I am a complete and total weather nut since I was a little boy. LET IT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!! (But also let everyone get around safely!!)

      Dan in Brockport

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  18. Where is everybody on here? working? LOL I sneak a look in on the blog while at work everyonce in a while. Still looking forward to snowy weekend, although my wife is not as she has to drive to newark for work. friday and saturday.

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    1. They're keeping their mouths shut until it actually starts snowing for fear of making Mother Nature change her mind...

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    2. I hear you, I would hate to have it be a bust. Either way it sounds like we are all in a small area wide snow, but the lake effect could decide to take a crap and not happen for us.

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    3. As it looks now that low is gonna hover off to our east for a bit putting us in a good position for a bit of synoptic snow and multiband les, the latter of which we know is localized and unpredictable this far out. However, given the strength of the low and the wind direction it looks like missing out on les will be the exception not the rule for those of us north of I-90. I think the reason it's quieter on here is because there's not much to argue about anymore. We are 3-4 days out, GFS and ECMWF are agreeing, and all we can do is watch and wait (and hope).

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  19. Are there any updates from the News 8 team based on latest model runs?

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  20. 06Z GFS would leave at least a foot for everyone from Jamestown to Buffalo to Rochester to Syracuse.

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  21. Scott or team with the factors mentioned yesterday by you. I believe the snow ratios are going to be high with the LES is that correct?

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  22. Anyone want to venture some guesses for snowfall amounts through Saturday just for some fun? It could be our own little snowfall contest - gotta get the closest without going over. I'm calling 8 inches...and no cheating and waiting til Thursday to guess!

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  23. Devin is that for the Rochester metro? Also is that LES or synoptic snow from the storm?

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  24. I'm hoping for more as the potential is there...but seeing over a foot is just asking for too much faith from me after last winter. I hope I'm wrong!

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  25. Snowfall guessing contest? I'm guessing 7 inches total for the event through the weekend. A nice way to end our snow drought.

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  26. I'll will have an update later today but really no numbers will be issued by our department until Thursday. Exact placement of low will be important as LAKE ENHANCEMENT will be the primary meteorology with this snow fall.

    Scott

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  27. Good ol' Henry Margusity from AccuWeather has us down for 1 to 2 feet total through Saturday. Keep in mind that he isn't the greatest forecaster at the medium range, or at any range really. Also it likely represents a broad brush in regards to mesoscale features such as lake effect bands.

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  28. I will guess 7.5 average.

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  29. i'll guess 4 inches for Farmington and Victor area, total between synopic and LE. We always seem to get missed in this neck of the woods. Maybe i'll break out the shovel, but the snow blower will be on stand by. I think i used it twice last year, and even then i really could have just shoveled. I'm hoping to be surprised by some more. Love seeing the snow fall.

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  30. why does the weathel channel have a name for the storm in the west right now, which is evetually coming our way? they are calling it Draco? since when do we name normal sytems?

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    1. TWC are the only ones doing it, I don't know what they expect to accomplish with their winter storm naming system but it's a really stupid idea regardless.

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  31. Avon will get 1 inch regardless of what everyone else gets...

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    1. So will Caledonia. Most times the airport reports 9 inches and I still see grass.

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  32. i agree that naming a storm is stupid unless its a hurricane or something

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  33. If this storm hits, we'll call it "Stomo Fantastico" and if it doesn't, we'll call it "The Usual."

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  34. Here's a few predictions--

    1. No matter how much snow we get, there will be complainers that it was a bust. And the amount of complaining will be inversely proportional to the amount of snow that falls.

    2. The new stations will run their typical overdone first snowfall stories --interviews with some guy shoveling his driveway or sidewalk, some random snowplower and interview someone from a town or city DPW about being ready for the snow.

    3. Wegman's will be busy

    Not a prediction but some advice--- be careful traveling and enjoy whatever snow we get.

    Andy

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    1. Andy,
      That was the laugh I was looking for..Thank You!! Don't forget the auto body shop, you can bet they will have one of those on there too!
      Chris

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    2. Lol! Andy you are so right. The news stations will have 24 hour coverage on how the first snow of the season has brought the area to a standstill. Lol!

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    3. I find these types of stories embarrassing. We are from a part of country that where this type of event is not supposed to be a big deal. This isn't South Carolina, ya know.

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  35. I'm just glad we actually have some snow to talk about! This time last year, everyone, including myself, gave up on winter. I am going to enjoy these next couple days leading up to the "event" and can't wait to hear what Scott and his team come up with number wise! But so far, things are looking good for everyone, even those away form the lake!!!

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  36. Oh, and the unlucky news reporter-ette who gets to stand on the bridge over 490 and say, "The cars are going slow. Oh, boy. That wind is messing up my hair..."

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    1. I think they need to add an interview or two with the idiots in the medians who were going way to fast then realized that they had to stop!...

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  37. And the little old lady who had her flashers on as she goes 25 on 390 even though it hasn't snowed yet. "Well, young man. You can never be too careful. I just don't understand why you young folks drive so fast nowadays."

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  38. its nice to hear that the temps are projected to stay low enough to keep the snow around until at least christmas...what are people seeing after christmas in terms of temps? i know i read someones post about a potential big storm...that will be fun to see if it comes true and to what extent it does. It is nice to finally have some weather to talk about.

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  39. As I have said before I say it like I see it. I am saying based on the current information I believe the Rochester area will get 7-9 inches from just the storm. The LES could bring to specific areas another 8-12 inches because the lake is primed and all the ingrediants are there for major LES. I may be underestimating those LES numbers. My question for the News 8 team is aren't the winds going to be a concern? I have not heard of anyone mentioning that. I see winds of 30 mph sustained at times and gusts to 50? Idk again not an expert just how I am interpreting the latest data. Of course 3 days out things can change.

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  40. Andrew I agree, just looking at some data and the storm looks little stronger, little slower, and a little colder. All 3 things are good for us my friend!

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    1. I hope so. Too much wind can reduce the efficiency of lake effect, or even eliminate it. I assume people have checked into windshear between surface levels and 5,000 ft...if winds are going in different directions in that range, that disrupts lake effect too. So, wind worries me, as does depending upon that Low stalling in the wrong spot...or not stalling at all.

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  41. Im with you on the winds. Dare I say blowing and drifting? Still a few days out but my fingers are crossed.

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  42. Yes winds are a concern with blowing and drifting likely on Saturday. Most of this event will be lake enhanced snow NOT lake effect snow. There is a major difference and lake enhancement would favor more areas getting significant snowfall verses a pure lake effect event. I'm still waiting for consensus on cyclogenesis and placement of the actual storm on Saturday. Both are critical to snow tallies!

    Scott

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  43. I really hope future forecasts start emphasizing the threat of blowing snow, because whether we see a significant amount of snow or not we will see problems from blowing and drifting, given that at least a few inches from this is about as close to a guarantee as one can get in meteorology.

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    1. Give it time! Friday won't be the end of the world...or will it? :)

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    2. In that case, we won't have to worry about Saturday's forecast.

      Good luck to all the men who waited until the last minute to shop for their wives.

      (Oh, wait, that's Dec. 24. They still have time.)

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    3. Yeah really, the timing of this storm could not be more perfect. Or imperfect, depending on your point of view.

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  44. Updated NWS forecast for Friday:

    "Snow likely before 9am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

    And Friday night:

    "Rain and snow. Low around 30. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

    My poor abused heart just sank a little.

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  45. This rain stuff true Scott?

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    1. If it's any consolation, they keep at least a 70% chance of pure snow from Saturday through Saturday night. Still, I hope this isn't the start of some pesky warm trend.

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  46. Don't agree with that forecast at all. You'll see it change. Scott

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    1. *removes razor from surface of wrist*
      *places book of emo poetry back in drawer*

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    2. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA Thats hilarious

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    3. Scott,
      Does this have the potential to be a larger event than any given snow that we saw last winter?

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    4. I would say yes because if I recall we did not get a single storm of over 5 inches last year.

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    5. False. We received a lake effect storm last February that totaled around a foot at the airport. Over 15 inches fell that weekend, I remember it fondly because it was the most wintry point in the season, and I got to walk home in heavy lake effect and frigid temperatures at 3AM while slightly inebriated. People call me crazy for enjoying long walks in heavy snow at 12 degrees Fahrenheit, but what can I say I'm a bit of a weirdo...

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  47. We did get about 15" out of lake effect event in late January 2012, but no one else got as much. It was all melted about 5 days later. I remember being in awe at how quickly it disappeared.

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  48. As long as we have a white Christmas for Santa and his reindeer. I am hoping for my customized Cowboy Jay whistle and and gold plated phone for the hot line to the big guy. Not Jerry. Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow!!!

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  49. Stacey here! Regarding your typical "first big snow of the season" stories: how would you, as viewers, suggest we cover the snow this weekend? I'm not being rhetorical here. I know news stations usually cover certain stories the same way year after year, so I'm looking for some fresh ideas. I'm sure I'll be one of those reporter-ettes standing out on 490 talking about the roads and having horrible hair, so I'm down for some new, fresh ideas! And....go!

    - Stacey

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    1. How about showing how official snow measurements are taken?

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    2. Instead of standing on 490 Come over to the West side of the county and stand of the east end of one of our 3 mile long feilds. This will show people what whiteouts and zero visability are realy like. On second thought better not, not very safe, and kind of boring. I guess 490 is fine with me.


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    3. I like the idea of official snow measurements!

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    4. I like all three of the ideas posted thus far. I would like to see a more detailed account of how your team collaborates with one another and the work that goes into forecasting events like this.

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    5. Stacey,
      How about stories that focus on the positive aspects of snow -- the beauty and recreational fun it offers and the special excitement that comes with the first snow. We don't need stories about the drudgery of snow at that just conditions certain circles of people to focus on the negative.

      Andy

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    6. wouldn't really call it "the first big snow"....

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  50. do a feature on the whackos on the blog (me included)

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  51. Question for Scott since this is lake enhancement snow then the strong winds are benficial for incrreasing the snow totals not hurtful like they could be with traditional LES?

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  52. I know this is way off, but like Andrew said there could be a big storm for someone next week. Right now, and I hope it changes, it looks to cut West again.

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    1. The difference is for that time frame we have a blocking pattern that may work in our favor. Additionally, most ensembles are south and east of their operational counterparts in regards to the track. I've seen some people say that the block will prevent the storm from being a pure cutter, and result in more of a coastal transfer situation similar to what a lot of ensembles are referencing.

      But enough about that potential storm, as it's still a long way off, there's a lot of spread amongst models/ensembles and we have other more immediate concerns.

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  53. I hope your right, but in the meantime let's enjoy the snow coming Friday and Saturday. BY the way, I do like the way the blog has been lately. People are treating each other with respect. I for one will try not to be negative.

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  54. I hope the Low slows Northeast along NY/Vermont board and not overhead. The placement of the slow moving Low pressure will be key for this lake Enhancement to take place. To far west and Ohio, PA and South of Buffalo will get bulk of heavy snow. Slow moving or stalled Low over Vermont, and Western NY gets the heavy snow. I am more hopefull by the day. Let it snow.

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  55. I am with you HP. So many variables with this one, I am surprised at the confidence in the meteorology world on its outcome. Getting mixed results on sustained cold after Friday. Some are indicating 20s for awhile, others in the 30s, but I did see on one of the model runs ...GFS I think...that shows next Wednesday's storm creating a rapid SW flow immediately before its arrival. Wouldn't that result in a quick warm up?

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  56. Chris,
    I too am surprised (and happily so) at how quick the mets have come to believe this scenario will yield us some snow. I think someone way back weeks ago was commenting that it seemed that in general they thought with al the technology we have that forecasts should be able to see stuff sooner. I would say our scott etc have been looking/predicting this way far in advance. Good job guys, and girl (sorry stacey). This is the same system given the west and midwest snow correct? won't it lose strength by the time it gets to us?

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    1. What it loses in strength will be at least partially made up for in residence time and the effects of lake enhancement.

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  57. Stacey, How about a biggest snowman contest..... You, vs John vs Scott Sledding race? Ice Skating competition!

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  58. A real white possibly sort of maybe snowy start to winter and Christmas, say it ain't so? or just plowable potential?! As a teacher, a profession that must represent a quarter of this blog at least, besides plowfolk and basement dwellers, I am offended at that biased label. I expect "Supposed Snow Day" to be utilized soon. Well, I'm sure no one will read this as I usually leave the last post. The holidays must be near as Macedon found the holiday cheer and Andrew got to be sort of right and seems to be on his meds. Joy to the World!

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    1. I assume you're not an English teacher....

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    2. Whoever you are with these one liners, keep them coming.... hahaha

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    3. @Anonymous. How's the basement?

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  59. Stacey,

    Take a ride in a local town snow plow, i know its been done before but i haven't seen it in a while, go to a local school to see how they handle the snow (if we get a lot). those are a few of my ideas.

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  60. 0z NAM wants to take the low, redevelop it over eastern New York state then retrograde it to the east end of Lake Ontario as a 988 mb low. Does this make sense, and what implications does it have that we can't see on the models?

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  61. Replies
    1. I sure hope so. NAM QPF output doesn't paint us with much snow, but at the end of its run the low is still hanging around. Obviously still a lot of details to iron out. The best we can hope for is as Scott mentioned, a low meandering around near eastern New York/western New England.

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  62. If it retrogrades to far west western NY misses out on heavy snow. Low pressure parked north of lake ontario will favor areas well west and Southwest of the Rochester area, Northweast Ohio, Northwest PA, Southwest NY. We need the LP to be near Vermont.

    LP placement, speed and moisture wrapping around it are all key for big snowfall in our area. It is not a sure thing for the Rochester area by any mean. Time will tell.

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  63. I'm a little slow.. I just now got what Scott meant by Friday not being the end of the world.

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  64. The new run of the GFS seems to have the low parked on the East end of Lake Ontario. That seems to be to far West for us to get heavy snow. Am I right or wrong?

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    1. Not necessarily. The total QPF spat out with 850 temps below 0C is between 0.75 and 1 inch, which would translate to 7.5 to 10 inches of snow IF taken verbatim and assuming a 10:1 snow-water ratio. This is despite the low retrograding toward Lake Ontario. The NAM has a similar idea but much less QPF, albeit with the low still lingering at the end of its run. Still many details to work out that can make a big difference.

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    2. No, that is what you want. I saw the rapid refresh of the GFS. It looks like rain will change over to snow Friday night. The low actually deepens and moves further north east. Great setup for us. A lot of moisture in the air is available and the lakes are still very warm. Watch out for the next storm. The models all want to take the storm into Green Bay, which will likely not happen. All the models will adjust themselves with time. These model are not understanding mechanisms in the Pacific ocean, therefore, printing out garbage. Things are starting to turn around for us.

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    3. I seriously, seriously, seriously doubt that we'll stay all rain until Friday night. I haven't seen anything that would indicate that, including Scott's forecast. I can see how we don't go over to all snow until Friday afternoon, but I trust the experts in their ideas that we won't be liquid during the day Friday. As for what I want, what I want is a massive blizzard with 3+ feet of accumulation. What I saw is what I typed above.

      As for the next storm, I don't even want to think about it until this one is over. Not even worth diving into with so much going on for late week and so much uncertainty and model spread regarding next week.

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  65. That was the worst Santa impression I have ever heard Scott :P

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  66. Holy cow. If the GFS were to verify today we wold have a major major blizzard here next week. The GFS is taking that storm right up the hudson and is a 972 mb low. I know it will change since it is a week away but if it were to verify, HOLY COW.

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    1. Yeah...if nothing else that thing is just pretty to look upon.

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    2. I saw. I salivated. Then I cried, because I realized that a storm like that is just a pipe dream this far out in time. Would much rather see that solution on all the models a few days before it happens.

      In the meantime, we have this Friday through Saturday to be concerned with.

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  67. What the heck happend. John has totally changed the forecast to liitle snow now. What changed in 12 hours.

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  68. He has taken the snow almost totally out of the forecast and increased the temps. What the heck.

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  69. I do not see that the models have changed. What am I missing that John sees to change the forecast so drastically?

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  70. At 5 this morning John said on the air that latest data is showing more warmer air getting into the act. He said he was much more bullish with total accumulations yesterday than with what he's seeing this morning.

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  71. Well, we all cannot say that we are surprised. We are constantly dissappointed here in Western, NY. I knew I should not have gotten my hopes up. We go from an almost gauranteed white Christmas to maybe not. The other channels are holding on to the fact we will see good snow and so is the NWS so we can only hope that John is wrong on this one.

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  72. I did say don't count your chickens before they hatch.

    It's great we got something to watch, but based on experience we should temper expectations.

    Andy

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  73. I do not agree with John on this one. I understand that he is being conservative until the models do come into better agreement. They are trending a "bit" warmer, but models are still showing at least a solid 6". And then what they wanna bring up the coast later next week is pretty awesome!!

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  74. This is all so confusing. You watch the other channels and they call Saturday lake effect snow. You watch Scott and he says not lake effect it is lake enhancement. Then you hear John who has changed things quite drastically. He says snow showers on Saturday? Yet Scott was still saying on his 11:00 forecast that we were going to get the plowable snow the latest data supports that. How can John go with the overnight GFS which is by far not the most reliable one? I would wait until the inormation from the latest GFS comes out this morning.I still stand by my original thougths. I also stated the other day keep an eye on a MAJOR storm sometime next week. This still has to be watched.

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  75. You guys are killing my soul :( I guess ill just go back to bed and dream about next winter (the doll at the end of Rudolph)

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  76. From NWS..... THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
    THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING IN WAKE OFF THE
    FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. AMOUNTS PROBABLY LIMITED AT THIS
    EARLY STAGE OF THE EVENT WITH MODEL SUGGESTION OF A MID LEVEL DRY
    SLOT INTRUSION...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH
    SPOTS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

    ON FRIDAY...THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
    ALLOWING FOR TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE FILLING LOW WEST OFF THE
    AREA TO A NEW LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR FILLING IN
    BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BLOSSOM
    SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
    PROCESS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO
    THE REGION. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASING ENOUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
    TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE
    LAKES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF LAKE ERIE.

    SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS STAGE TOUGH TO PINPOINT...BUT CURRENT
    INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NEARLY THE
    ENTIRE AREA...WITH WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
    STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH
    DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY FOR
    HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
    THE HWO PRODUCT.

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  77. I hope these new findings are wrong also, i was getting my hopes up that friday/saturday was going to give us enough snow to last until christmas. How could John change so much between when I watched Scott at 10pm last night. all i can say is wow, i should have seen this coming.

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  78. I hope NWS above is correct and John is wrong (sorry John)

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    1. Hi Farmington & all the bloggers, I know I down played it a bit this morning with regard to the weekend snows, but I still do believe we will experience an accumulating snow throughout the region. The big question remains how much?? As Scott said in the blog he wrote last night, the intensity & precise track the storm takes will really dictate how much we get. The only reason I soften my tones on the big snows for Friday night into Saturday was because the low levels did not look quite as cold with some of the data coming in late last night & early this morning, plus the storm's position was a little further east, quicker across New England instead of near Montreal & Northern New York longer like it had it yesterday. Either way, we will likely need the shovels region wide, just keep it here & we'll continue to update the forecast & eventually come out with numbers once we are closer to the event come tomorrow night into Friday. I SHOULD NOT HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE WEEKEND SNOWS AS MUCH AS I APPARENTLY DID, SO QUICKLY. My apologies...Come on snow!! Stay tuned everyone.

      News 8
      Meteorologist (AMS Seal)
      John DiPasquale

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    2. By the way, I also think we will have a white Christmas too! It would be nice, since it has been a few years since we last saw one.

      John

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  79. One of our other weather people had 2-4 or 3-6 inches of general snowfall Friday and then more lake effect snow on Saturday with those amounts to hard to call now. So time will tell.

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  80. its cool they are giving amounts, but if i were a met i'd be worried to give amounts too soon because things can still change. but the NWS sounds pretty sure of at least advisory criteria snow for everyone, even down in southern tier for those who usually miss out on snow.

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  81. Not to be a Jerk, but they tell us to keep blogging, and the Mets are only on here once a day if were lucky....

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  82. I imagine they are pretty busy between updating facebook, twitter, and this blog, along with working. I too would like to see them update this a little more during the day with some posts to either ease our minds or let us know things are going down the crapper with snow hopes. But i understand they have other things going on as well. I find myself relying on bloggers like Andrew and the other guys who seem to be able to interpret the data since the mets aren't on here alot this year.

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  83. which station had snow amounts already?

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  84. I was sad to see the change in the forcast this morning. My three-year-old has been waiting very patiently for snow to play in. My fingers are still crossed that we get snow for him to play in and we have a white Christmas.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Anonymous, We should have enough snow for your 3 year old to play in & should get that white Christmas too. Amounts of snow coming up this weekend will depend on elevation & location, as typically is the case with lake enhancement/effect snows, but we should all receive enough to enjoy! Stay tuned for updates & have a great holiday season with your family!

      John

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  85. Channel 10 was not issuing snow amounts yet on 10.2. To them it sounds worse Saturday, but they are still calling for Lake Effect and not Lake Enhanced. (But maybe they are saying this because more people "get" lake effect.

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  86. Channel 10 did say 2-4 or 3-6 this morning

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    Replies
    1. 8 said 3 inches this morning.....

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  87. from what i'm reading on the blog it is starting to sound like last year all over again, unless someone can step in and calm our fears about missing out on at least a decent snow? guys help us out here! my youngsters would love to play in the snow as well, so would i with my snow blower LOL

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  88. The models are starting to get away from the double-barrel low scenario, which won't provide AS MUCH synoptic snowfall, but still enough to cover the ground for pretty much everyone. However, the lake enhancement still looks solid for Saturday which is why I'm confused. Maybe John was thinking we were going to get a lot more yesterday, but I think a white Christmas is still looking good. And remember, it's only Wednesday morning, still have a ways to go. Also remember John is a meteorologist! Maybe he sees something we don't...

    And Andrew is right on, next week bears serious watching!

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    Replies
    1. Hi Weatherguy, As I stated above, the slightly warmer air in the lower levels, & positioning of the low Saturday still supports accumulating snows, just not as sweet as it looked yesterday, but of course since it's still a few days away that could surely change, as we all know. It will be interesting to see what the rest of today's runs into tomorrow have! Yes, next week could get really interesting & fun, but way too far out to get excited yet. Stay tuned for more updates via the blog & of course on tv over the next couple days.

      Have a great day & holiday season Weatherguy!

      John

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  89. Very disappointing as usual. This is why it is so hard not to complain and be negative. We get the short end of the snow stick all the time. Hopefully things will change again. Who knows.

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  90. As long as it is enough to cover the grass at this point I will take that so at least we have a white christmas, which we did not have last year. I knew we were jumping on those models too soon, they change everyday. like someone said yesterday it would almost be better too look like we were not in the best spot 5 days out and then have the models come closer into a sweet spot for us toward the actual event, sounds like the opposite is happening for us again this time. Lets stay positive, its no ones fault so no sense in complaining or trying to blame anyone.

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  91. Now, now everybody....

    Don't count your chickens (or snowflakes).

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  92. I am pleasantly suprised to see more sunshine than i expected today. Last night scott said clouds would be sticking around and maybe we would see some shy sun later, but i woke up to a nice sunrise and i still see the sun out there with some clouds.

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  93. The latest GFS that just came out hits us hard with a lot of snow. That is what I see. Maybe I am wrong but just saying what I see.

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  94. Thanks for explaining John. Your team is the best in town!

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  95. Things really haven't changed too much. I'd say the biggest change is the system exiting a little quicker due to the lack of blocking in the North Atlantic. No need to worry. There's still a snow in the forecast, it's too early for numbers, and it looks like the pattern change might finally be coming...I hope :)

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  96. thanks for the clarifications John, we freak out too easily, or at least I do. Thanks for taking the time to respond to us. I look forward to positive updates later.

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  97. Hi Bloggers! Newest data continues to showcase an accumulating snowfall (plow-able) Friday night into Saturday with wrap around synoptic snows combined with lake effect/enhancement snows. What an adjustment it will be after all the mild weather & lack of snowfall so far this year. Good news for all you snow lovers, which it appears most of the bloggers are, just like myself! More updates to come over the next day or two.

    John

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the update John, especially for those of us that don't read models.

      Would love it if you would post models a little more often and point out some of the things you look at.

      Keeping fingers crossed for a nice snowfall.
      Andy

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  98. I am so confused. He is going back on what he said this AM. Now we are back to a plowable snow.

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  99. Starting to think this is going to be a dud like several times last year. When the mets are hesitant this late with a possible storm bad sign that there are to many things that have to happen right for a good snowfall. Thinking this will be a few inches for all.

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  100. I strongly believe it will be a White Christmas, but nothing we can not handle.It looks like Saturday is going to be one of those bitter cold, windy days with occasional snow. A few inches maybe, but no feet of snow.

    For the system sometime next week, it will most likely be a mixed bag type.

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  101. Still like us for a 3-6" snowfall in our area late Friday night and Saturday. Perfect for a White Christmas. If we don't get an 1" of snow by Saturday, a new record will be set for longest into a season without an inch of snowfall from one event. No one should be sad here, we're getting snow!

    Scott

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  102. NWS now has all rain for us on Friday. I get the sneaking suspicion that this is the beginning of a slow death for our snow event.

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  103. NWS AND channel 13 are saying 40+ by next Wed.

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    Replies
    1. That's in advance of the next storm system. Behind it should be much colder air.

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  104. Yay! There are little angels watching over us snow lovers!

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  105. I totally agree with Scott and the Channel 8 crew. However, I have lived here in Western NY all my life and been through over 50 plus winters. Sure we will receive snow this weekend, but most of the accumulations, will be south of the Thruway. We need to remember that the lake has a huge influence on synoptic events. With the temperatures being warmer near the lake, I believe here in the Rochester area, 2 inches the most if that.Could be up to a foot south of the Thruway. That is the way these early systems work. Please correct me if I am wrong Scott.

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    Replies
    1. I would think the 2 inches would be closer to the lake, with 2-5 inches across the southern Metro and 5-10 south of the Thruway. This warm trend is getting really troubling and annoying though, as this pesky pattern we've been stuck in seems to want to do everything it can to spoil the fun.

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  106. I agree in general with you but I don't see a foot in our immediate area. City 3-5", Lakeside 1-3", elevations of the Finger Lakes region up to 8"

    Time will tell but yes I agree more to the South this time around. The Western Southern Tier will probably get the most around here but I'll take 3-4" in my backyard.

    Scott

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    Replies
    1. What happened to lake Enhancement, isnt that always higher closer to the lake?

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  107. Winter Storm Watch
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
    333 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

    NYZ012-019>021-085-200445-
    /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.121221T1400Z-121222T2100Z/
    WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
    WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
    333 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
    WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON.

    * LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
    COUNTIES.

    * TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

    * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY
    NIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO
    13 INCHES. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

    * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE FRIDAY
    NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

    * IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE STARTING
    ON FRIDAY. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
    THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY
    POOR VISIBILITY.

    * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
    EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SMALL CHANGE IN THE
    EXPECTED TRACK MAY ALTER EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO
    RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

    STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
    WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
    CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

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  108. Up here in Hilton were going to get the shaft I take it?

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  109. wouldn't lake enhancement also favor the lakeshore communities? what about the winds aligning for lake effect. seemed the NWS ws calling for north to NW winds which should set up lake snow even after this system pulls out a bit...am I off base here or was that the case but now its changed?

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  110. Looking ahead what is the best track for us for next weeks storm? i see 3 tracks on weather.com. What would be the best scenario, the one that stays east and heads for us?

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    Replies
    1. None, all warm for us. it has to go east of us, if it hits us, all rain

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  111. NWS service has us all rain Friday and Rain/Snow friday night. Im gonna say it. B U S T

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  112. alright, so we can quote you as saying its a bust, and if we get some snow, you will eat crow? what are you calling a bust, no snow at all, or way less than we thought? i have no doubt it will be less than we all were hoping for...scott still says 3-6 for most inland...what does andrew think?

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  113. perhaps it could head for us, just to the south and then move to the coast, yes it will warm up but would it prevent a huge warm up. draco went to the west and were talking a little snow this friday, saterday.

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  114. as for the storm mid next week weather.com had three tracks with the further east track going right through our area. I do not think that will be the case though and think it will head up east of the appalachians and up the hudson valley which would bring us snow for western new york.

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  115. i'm still confused and scotts 4pm forecast on ch. 8 didnt' help me with this...are we still talking about lake effect setting up behind this system due to the wind direction, or is that not a concern any longer?

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  116. Postion of storm of course is not what we hoped for if your want snow. Looks like that impacts the lake enhancement and not much with the system because warmer air is getting involved and rain for a time Friday. 2-4 in the metro for whole event. More for those southwest of us. I missed it I guess sorry.

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  117. I am confused. Channel 10 states up to a ft North of the Thruway with much lesser amounts south of the Thruway. This channel states 1-3 North of the Thruway and much more South. How can Meteirologists be so different from each other looking at the same models. I will wait to see what happens when the snow or rain starts falling. Next weeks storm does not look good for mus eithet. Yet another Western mover whcih means rain for us. This is the pattern like we said several weeks ago. Storms move West and cool us off for a few days until the next storms moves West. The Midwest is getting pummeld this year now from this storm and next weeks storm. We are the losers unfortunately. Oh well.

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  118. Yes saw that KW said on the other channel it will look like a winter wonderland here Saturday?

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  119. so thats it, everyone throws in the towel, ho humm poor us? some snow is better than none and it will stay till xmas at least, could be worse. i'm just saying. lets see if updates get worse or better over next 24 hrs

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  120. Sorry Farmington, 1-3 inches is pathetic and does not excite me in the least. When they tell you 1 day ago that areas North of the Thruway could see up to a foot and then 12 hours later, 1-3, that is a huge disappointment for snow lovers. I would rather see no snow at all than 1-3 wimpy inches. I would rather break the December no snow record to be honest with you. Sorry, but I very dissapointed.

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  121. well i see it from a different perspective...1-3 is plenty of snow for my little ones to play in, and for us to call it a white xmas. i agree that i am dissapointed that its not going to be a huge deal, but at this point i think most would agree that any plowable amount of snow will be good, especially for those who make their money plowing driveways etc. the mets were interpretting the data and things changed, its not as if they were tricking us and waited until now to say haha tricked you its only 3-5...to say you would rather have no snow than 1-3 is pretty depressing for me to hear, i feel sorry for you. Hope you can see some positive light in the near future.

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  122. When we get a real snowstorm like Denver, Minnesota and Wisconsin are going to get, than I will be excited.

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  123. Track records for the last few years seem to always pull storms further west than anticipated, which cuts down on snowfall and warms us up. That trend is continuing it seems for next weeks storm. For this weekends storm, I have a feeling it will not live up to expectations, although I'm sure we'll get some snow to hang around for Christmas. Not being pessemistic, just saying it like it is. I'd love to see more snow than what's forecast, but how often has that happened.

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  124. ok, understood. in the meantime let the rest of us try to enjoy what little snow is coming, maybe we can look forward to another storm next week, other channels were hinting that the track of it may favor us, like closer to coast instead of west of us. time will tell.

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  125. Madison, WI. Blizzard warning with 10-18 inches potential.

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  126. I miss our old winters where it got predictibly cold in november and we got enough snow to keep us all happy, sometimes too much and we complained. and it would stay cold until March with a few brief warm ups to give you enough time to put up and take down xmas lights. its like a switch was flipped after winter 2010 and we live in some twilight world.

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    Replies
    1. Look at the 1940's.
      Andy

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  127. Totally agree Farmington

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  128. Could next weeks storm, wednesday rain with high of 39 and Thursday snow and high of 30.(that according to accuweather.) Nws has warm air and rain on wednesday. But if theres 2 lows and they transfer energy, placement of the 2 pieces would be key. weather.com stated it could be in 2 pieces so its something to watch.

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  129. it will be at least be something to watch. we will have to be realistic and not get our hopes up too far out. if we aren't going to get a lot of winter, we might as well have fun tracking whatever storms come our way, good or bad.

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  130. I'm not giving up yet for friday-saturday. looks like if we get snow it will be more friday night into saturday. news 10 seems to confident with plowable snow likely. Other stations arent saying as much now, but I will estimate 4-8 inches hope for more. will know a lot more tomorrow.

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  131. what site do you get the gfs model or models to look at?

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    Replies
    1. if you go to wunderground.com they have a pull down menu for a model i was messing with today. i couldn't figure out how to switch between different model types. they used to have it where you could choose euro or gfs etc. i'm sure someone else will post a website we can use.

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  132. 8-13" in the forecast for my area in WNY (Southern Erie County). woo-hoo.

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  133. Still way to early for snowfall numbers. With this type of event I wouldnt trust any numbers until Friday late night when thing start to take shape. Way to many variables with Lake Ehancement events.

    I dont care if it is 10,13 or 8's forecast at this point it is pointless to try and put numbers on it is basically a guess at best.

    I would be surprised if here in Hamlin we get a dusting; however, I also would not be surprised if we got a foot. That is the way these events work.
    NOT POSSIBLE TO FORECAST ACCURATE SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS FAR OUT FOR ANY LAKE ENHANCED EVENTS.

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  134. Agree Hamlin, Back in my plowing days, If I had a dollar for every event they called for a foot, and we got an inch. Or I remember nights id be out plowing with a 1-3 forecast and 12" fell. Id be rich.....

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  135. For this weekend this is when I start using the NAM model. If you look at the 48 hour cumulative snow fall forecast you can really pick out the forecasted track of the storm pretty nicely. Right now it only takes us out to noon on Friday. As far as model sites I use PSU ewall and a site called Unisys Weather.

    Just in case anyone cares.

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  136. Since as far back as last Friday the models were indicating a rain to snow event for this Friday, with the changeover happening anywhere between noon and midnight on Friday night, so I'm not sure why people are getting worked up over that aspect of the storm. The changeover now looks to be at night for sure and into Saturday, but the length of time the low sticks around and the strength of the low aren't quite what was projected back then (I'm saying this without having looked at anything since early this morning so correct me if I'm wrong). So our chances for high totals with the overall synoptic/lake enhancement are decreased but who knows what lake effect will bring on top of that. I agree with Hamlin/David, no way to know - but it's not as exciting as it once was. However, at least there is FINALLY some snow coming!

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