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Friday, January 4

A Gusty Friday!

Written by John DiPasquale:

Significant winds continue to blow, especially in counties near the lake & in elevated areas with gusts as of noon ranging from 40 to 50 Buffalo to Rochester to Watertown!  This is causing some blowing & drifting of the lighter fluff on top of the more dense snow pack from the big storm.  Expect the winds to slowly ease tonight into Saturday, as a cold front passes through late tonight.  Behind the cold front, there should be a touch of lake snow late tonight into Saturday morning.  A coating to an inch or so may fall throughout Saturday morning, but no real significant snows are expected through Saturday. 

Late Saturday night into early Sunday a shot of snow should occur with warm front that may leave a quick coating to an inch or two of wet snow.  A good chunk of Sunday looks to be fairly uneventful with a few wet snow showers & flurries from time to time, but late Sunday into Sunday night the weak storm delivering the milder air for Sunday will slowly shift to the east & drag a cold front across the region.  This will lead to some general snow showers later Sunday afternoon into the evening.  Later Sunday evening & night into Monday morning, as some Arctic air pours in on a north-northeast flow will cause some decent lake snows to fly, which could pile up several inches of fluff during this time frame.  Combine the very cold temperatures, with gusty winds & some decent lake snows & Monday morning's commute may not be too fun.  We'll see if this in fact pans out.  Stay tuned through the weekend for updates.  Lake snows should slowly taper off during the late morning/afternoon Monday with highs in the 20s.  A warm front will then move through Tuesday morning with a much milder, brisk Tuesday afternoon, as highs make it well into the 30s to maybe near 40.  A shot of rain & even milder temperatures then will try to blow in for Wednesday, before some real big changes may occur next weekend & beyond with pattern change.  We'll see...Long range data has been consistently showcasing this happening.  Keep it here, & we'll keep you posted bloggers.

Have a great Friday & weekend everyone!

   

41 comments:

  1. Thanks for the post John,

    I havent had much time to blog, that is how you can tell it is a wintery patern, lots of plowing. The winter is far from over actually it has just started. I am look forward to the next round of lake effect snow. This nickle and dime snow is also nice, it keeps the snow pack nice and white, and the overtime rolling in. LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, much different from last winter.

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  2. John not sure where the LES is coming from that you have mentioned. I thought Scott said on his forecast that maybe light snow at best for Sunday? He did not even mention any LES? If this sets up is it more for the traditional areas or would north of the thruway be a traget?

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  3. What big changes next weekend?

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  4. Cold changes. I think our best stretch of winter hasn't happened yet. I think the timing of when it arrives is the big question. Might be closer to the 20th I think.

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  5. What is John talking about with this Sunday night into Monday morning not one other forecaster has mentioned this. Also big changes next weekend? I think John posts some things without consulting Scott and that is scary.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, because you know so much more (eyes rolling)

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  6. I've been waiting for a robust MJO signal to pop up. Figures it would finally do so in the worst possible phase. Hopefully it moves right along.

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    1. From what I've been seeing the MJO should breeze rather quickly through those unfavorable phases into either the more favorable Phase 7 or the Circle of Death. I love how sinister that sounds..."circle of death."

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    2. I hope so. The ECMF has it slowing way down so we are still in phase 6 on the 18th ( warmest in the East ). The gfs ensemble has it in phase 7 by the 15th and phase 8 by the 18th. Either way they both work out with our little heat wave in phase 6. Just differ on the duration I guess.

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  7. The AO looks to go slightly positive in the short term, before the spread amongst the AO ensemble members becomes very wide. Still, the mean is moderately negative and has been for a few days. NAO seems to want to go moderately negative as well, and with a lesser degree of spread amongst ensemble members. PNA is still neutral/weakly negative, with somewhat of a wide spread amongst ensemble members. Temperatures are slated to go into the tank across the Canadian Prairies about a week from now, as the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere moves into that region and spreads south and east after that, reaching the Great Lakes about 10-12 days from now. There has been a tremendous upward spike in temperature in the polar stratosphere over the past several days, bigger than the one that resulted in severe cold in much of Europe last winter. The odds of a bitter cold second half of the month are increasing by the day.

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  8. I will be honest, I do not want the frigid air at all. I do not like cold, but love snow. Where are the storms again. Since our last one over a week ago there has been nothing. Is it going to get active again?

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  9. Winter is over it is going to get warm and stay above average. Yeah for that! Our channel 10 over the top people have it getting brutally cold in 10 days. Some of the coldest air we have seen in a long time according to the world is ending forecasters. We will be above average temps rest of winter with no mare that 30 inches of snowfall the rest of the winter. Mark it down! Also mark down the stupid troll comments will start coming again.

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    Replies
    1. Yawn. Come back when you can think of something new to say Trolly McTrollerson.

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  10. Nothing has changed significantly from yesterday regarding the long range. Neutral/slightly negative PNA, moderately negative NAO, moderately negative AO. Worth pointing out that the AO ensembles have been trending even more negative over the past several days, and one member takes the AO to literal off-the-charts levels of negative. That would be an unlikely extreme however, especially with an extremely wide spread remaining amongst the ensemble members. In any event, arctic air still looks to pour down into the western/central states initially before bleeding east. I think it's important to note that on occasion these cold outbreaks can take several days longer to materialize than initially forecasted, so don't be surprised if all of this gets pushed back a bit.

    And of course I see that our troll is still as stupid as ever :P

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  11. Yes it will get pushed back to June like everything did last winter right? I suppose you were the one who kept saying that pattern change was coming last year and kept pushing it back? Keep lookin at your misleading ensembles. The fact is winter is over!

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    1. I wasn't even here last year ^_^

      You've presented the same tired claim here for a week now, if you aren't going to come up with something new and interesting to troll us with then at least support your "fact" with data. Potentially misleading evidence is better than no evidence at all. And BTW, this week's temperature forecast does not count as evidence. And if you're going to cite the CPC temperature anomaly map as evidence then keep in mind that it's automated on weekends and thus quite unreliable, and has no expert discussion written to explain it further.

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  12. STOP FEEDING THE TROLL!

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    Replies
    1. I just want him to say something new and original for once, his tired rhetoric is starting to bore me.

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  13. The colder the better. It feels great to sit next to te would stove when it is brutally cold outside. I also like to walk in the cold and snow it just feels good. Winter weather just make me happy to be alive.

    I am looking forward to seeing what the month of January will bring once it is all said and done, much like I was for the month of December. I expect winter weather fans will not be dissapointed.

    I will say that NO PERSON KNOWS what the whole month of January will do let alone the whole winter. I agree with Anonymous' post at 11:31 all signs are pointing toward winter making a return, maybe in a big way, by the middle to end of the month. I will sit back wait, watching the models and forecasts and staying hopefull the warm will not last long.

    The big questions will be:

    Will there be enough of a BLOCKING patern to force the cold air far enough South and East in the U.S.?

    How long will it take for the cold air to get to the Eastern U.S.?

    Where will the storms set up as the colder air moves South and then further East?

    How long will the arctic air last if it does make it here?

    Temperature gradient fuels some big storms. I would expect the patern to get much more active again in the next few weeks. I feel winter weather fans WILL NOT be disappointed by the end of January. We will have to wait and see. I would bet money on winters return in a big way, lets hpoe anyways.

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    Replies
    1. Meant the wood stove and Hope

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  14. I agree with HP and keep an eye from the 17th on thru the rest of the month. It will become colder and pretty active with storms and as usual track will be the key but feel the path of the last storm will become the theme of the winter will a chance of at least one Noreaster. Quiet now but as they say snow lovers good things come to those who wait. There of course will be significant melting next week with the warmer temperatures for a few days next week.

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  15. With temps getting into the 40's and maybe 50's for several days we can kiss this snowpack goodbye.

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  16. You are right Macedon big thaw starting Tuesday to Sunday 40s into the 50s. Snow gone winter over even though many here want to tell us the 2nd half of January will be coooold and snowy. Will be a nice and quiet rest of the winter. In fact in February and March you will think it is May around here LOVE IT!

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    1. Holy lord wishful thinking much? Average high in May is near 68 degrees, the all-time RECORD high in February is 73.

      But yeah, all the people calling for cold temps in the dead of winter, well they're just crazy morons...

      The day I see a February around here that shapes up like May is the day I sell my snowblower and buy 20 gallons of tequila to celebrate.

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    2. What are you saying? It's never got warm in a normal winter before? A return to cold and snow after a warm up isn't unprecedented. We shall see what happens. There will be cold on our side of the globe.. all it will take is the mechanism to bring it East. I like our chances.

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  17. These highs and lows happen virtually every single winter around here, so the mild weather this upcoming week is...normal! Granted, the GFS and EURO have been trending slower with the arrival of the cold weather. It looks like a slight blocking pattern will hold onto the warmer air into the weekend, and hopefully start breaking down early next week. NAO still wants to go negative and bring the colder air in I'd say in the next 7-10 days. Winter's not over!

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  18. HOLY #### A NEWS 8 WEATHER SIGHTING!! I thought you had left us for good amidst all the tomfoolery and trollbaggery ;_;

    That's good news about the cold coming though, albeit only a fool would completely cancel winter in the face of one measly warmup.

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  19. Nah, we would never leave you! Enjoy the little January thaw before winter comes back and we all go blog crazy again!

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  20. Do not see that cold getting here for a long time. North and west of us yes but here no. Winter is slowly ending with temperatures well above norm and snow well below. Enjoy the early spring.

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    Replies
    1. yup, cancel all your winter plans, no more snowmobiling trips, put way the jackets, because anonymous above at 7:49 says winter is over. I turned off the furnace because this person is so knowledgeable. see you next winter season.....in 7-10 days!

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  21. I just signed up to have my driveway sealed this week, really good deal too. Now I just need to open the pool.

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  22. Yup, just shoveled the snow off my lawn, so I can mow the grass next week.

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  23. all good ideas, i heard that walmart has July 4th products already stocked on their shelves because of the anonymous post above and from pervious troll knowledge. I also witnessed a farmer (who obviously reads the blog) getting ready to plant corn because it was gauranteed to be spring soon. Anonymous is now rochester new most accurate forecast, sorry scott.

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  24. Step 1: Polar Vortex has split.

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  25. Now people are catching on that spring is near and winter is over. Sealing the driveway,mowing the lawn and farmers getting ready to plant. People are hard learners on this forum but eventually they do catch on to reality. Caledonia Polar Vortex has split where has it gone? Why has it taken off? Is it angry? What does that mean? Please enlighten us.

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  26. Instead of one giant vortex over the pole..it has split in two. One section will settle over Scandinavia and the other over Hudson Bay. It's when the Hudson Bay vortex drops south and it's cold lobes circle around we get our winter back. It's going to take longer than many would hope.. probably around the 20th or so.

    I think the evolution will be similar to what we saw in December. With the West and Central states seeing the cold first. Will probably see some posts lamenting how storms always cut to our west a few times before we get ours. Of course anything could happen. It wouldn't be the first time it looked like winter was on its way only to never show up. We may have to suffer watching you prance around in your banana hammock for the next 2 months after all.

    But like I said earlier, I like our chances.

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  27. Not going to happen! You will say the 20th then the 20th will come and the experts will say " Looks like the pattern change will be in February". Then the first week of February will be mild and the experts will say "Mid to late February the pattern will change". Then ... you get my drift and I do not mean snow drift. Just like last winter the pattern for cold and snow will not change. You trolls had your one storm enjoy those memories as everything melts and look forward to our early spring.

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  28. At least you aren't a jerk about it. You could very well be right. But I have yet to see you give a reason why you think that might happen. Because it happened last year? Either way, all that is a ways off. Enjoy the warm weather.

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  29. I literally don't understand why someone who doesn't like weather or apparently other people for that matter posts on a weather blog. It's very weird. Aren't there blogs for weather unenthusiasts? Geez

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  30. We are going to spend some time under the storm track. We could end up with very cold rain ending as a little snow over and over again. That would be fun. Not really. I'm pretty sure the idea of non stop sunny and 50's between now and April is off the wall.

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