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Monday, January 7

January Thaw Starts Tuesday

Written by John DiPasquale:

Today will be the coldest day of the week, which will be followed by the Polar branch of jet stream mainly being off to the north for much of the next week!  This will ensure us of not getting much, if any, snow & temperatures that average well above the "norm".  As Stacey said in her posts Sunday evening, ups & downs are normal in winter, or any season for that matter.  Don't worry snow lovers there will be some more winter weather, we are only a few weeks in.  We'll see how cold it turns next week, as colder air will return, but the big question is how intense will the cold be when it arrives??  Stay tuned through the week into the weekend for updates.  In the meantime enjoy the nice thaw on the way starting tomorrow...

Have a great night WNY!
  

56 comments:

  1. I think I'm going open my pool later this week. Widespread highs in the 80's next week followed by a lengthy stretch in the high 90's, maybe low 100's, all-time record highs will be at stake regionwide, heat stroke will be a common problem amongst the elderly, lawns will spontaneously combust. This will be the most sensational January heat wave in the history of WNY. I don't care what any of these stupid experts say, with their fancy models and meteorology degrees and knowledge of weather patterns, winter is definitely over!!

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  2. Euro lost the -NAO it had a few runs ago. Extend the torch and bow to Anonymous. Kidding, but I wish it hadn't done that.

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  3. The NCEP and GFS ensemble means continue to strongly support a return to below average temps for a few days later next week, followed by a return to average. The Euro losing the -NAO for a single run is nothing to fret about, as it is only a single run and the operational models are having plenty of difficulty resolving the long range pattern. One concern that's been mentioned is that if the northern plains don't receive a snow cover during upcoming arctic intrusions into that region, then the arctic air mass might not be very cold once it reaches us and all the talk of big arctic air in the East ends up falling by the wayside. However, that same concern was voiced before the last cold intrusion and look what happened. And with forecasts calling for plenty of North American storm activity over the next few weeks I personally have strong doubts that a snow cover won't be re-established over the northern plains over that time span.

    In short, and as already mentioned by News 8 Weather and many others ad nauseum, winter is still not cancelled.

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    1. I'm not super concerned with the NAO..at least not as much as I would be if I lived South of NYC. I wasn't suggesting winter was over. But once I spend so much time convincing myself something is going to happen I start finding ways for it not to happen. Then I start model hugging and getting myself concerned over every run. It may be a sickness. I'll try to keep it in check.

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  4. I would LOVE to get my hands on some of the weed that that that the first poster is on. It MUST be steller!!

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    1. Oh that was me lol. Can't prove it, you'll just have to believe me. And I was being completely sarcastic in that post.

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  5. All signs still point to extended above average temperatures and no snow. Early spring still on track gotta love it. Please everyone say with me" Winter done". Thanks

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    1. Still haven't thought of anything new to troll us with I see. You could bore a corpse to death Johnny One Note.

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  6. In the town of Hamlin we took all our plow gear off today and we are going to start to get ready for blacktop next week. I called the blacktop plant and told them we didnt have to wait for the "GROUNDHOG" this year to tell us spring is here, we have a "JACKASS" giving us the outlook this year a couple months early. He said maybe we should wait and see. I agreed we will wait and see what winter will bring.

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  7. P.S. I hope you have a sence of humor Anonymous. You must with your thinking spring is here already.

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  8. Winter lovers might want to read the Climate section of the NWS discussion. It's somewhat technical but here is the last paragraph:

    WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY…WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH SYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

    Get that crow ready Mr. Warm Monger, you will likely need to eat a lot of it.

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  9. OK get the crow ready.I am getting my spring clothes out while you do that. NWS and their technical jargon they are clueless. Btw HP I have a SENSE not sence of humor but thanks for asking even though you need spell check. The NWS will put this same crap out next week and high confidence in a pattern change coming in the early part of February same old same old. Do you remember last year when you all sat there last winter with your thumb up your you know where saying the pattern is going to change and low and behold no change. I will maybe believe when Mr. Hetsko says it is going to happen but he knows and has remained very quiet lately because he does not want to let all of you snow nuts down.

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    1. I'll be getting my Spring clothes out too...for a few days this week...before temperatures drop again next week.

      Mr. Hetsko has been quiet, but I guess John and Stacey don't count because they've been vocal about the warmup not lasting. Besides, he probably has better things to do than deal with the buffoonery on this blog.

      I remember last year, none of the experts were on board with a big pattern change and winter lovers were grasping at straws. This time many experts are on board and straws aren't the only thing to grasp.

      I agree about those clueless experts though, their extensive training in meteorology is truly useless compared to the almighty Weather Stone.

      Picking on a single misspelling...really? Trolling used to be a art, that no longer appears to be the case. Kids these days don't know what real trolling is...

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  10. Yes you got me, my English is not very good. I might not be very book smart; BUT, I do have something you do not have, which I find very Useful. COMMON SENSE!! YOU cant learn that you either have or you dont. SORRY, you got screwed YOU DIDNT GET IT. Hopefully your "SENCE" of humor helps you get by.

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  11. Really would like to know what David and Weatherguy think about this winter pattern change coming or not. These two guys have good posts unlike some of the people on here like talking about winter over.

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  12. As the New 8 team has repeatedly said, this is typical for any given winter season. The models have been fairly consistent in bringing much colder air down to our neck of the woods around the middle to late part of the month, which is believable since the NAO is trending negative, the PNA is trending positive, the AO trending way negative, and the polar vortex has split, not to mention the significant stratospheric warming event that just took place. In addition, the models have been kicking some butt concerning long range predictions so far this winter. However, there is still way too many variables and if there is a lack of moisture with the cold, then the air may become modified due to a lack of snow cover. Bottom line, there are way more variables in favor of cold of snow vs. a stubborn ridge, which is responsible for our current little thaw. Hang in there snow lovers, it could get really interesting around the middle of next week!

    Agree David or Andrew!?

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  13. Still figuring January 20th.. + or - 2 days.

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  14. Storm chances 18th and 23rd. First one might be messy.

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  15. I agree with Weatherguy that things will become more of the winter variety more towards last week of January. The question is are we going to get more really cold or snowy? I do not think it will be both at once. Either we are going to get some of the coldest air we have seen in several years with not much snow or normal temps with several snow storms possible depending on storm track. Only time will tell but I think we all would agree winter is far from over.

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  16. to the anonymous that said Scott has been quiet so far about cold coming, just last night in his forecast he put up a graphic of arctic air intruding the eastern US later this month. So maybe now you will think it is possible. If you go by just the 7-10 day forecast, it looks like winter is over, i'll give you that, but if you don't already know that we usually do get a good january thaw every year then maybe you belong on a different blog. This has become a petty back and forth blog match of who can top who, but you still have not backed up your opinion with any real facts other than stating that you are right and we are all wrong. What benefit or gain to you experience from following this blog, I'm just curious? Is your self esteem so low that you need to bully people around on this blog to make yourself feel better? I truly feel sorry for you and hope you find happiness in life outside of this blog. And if i had a crystal ball, i would predict that when cold does set back up, you will disappear like a fart in the wind.

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  17. I love reading this blog but I'm getting quite tired of it being littered with ridiculous, nonconstructive, childish comments that succeed in nothing more than displaying how immature and ignorant people in our communities are. Clean up the blog and grow up if for no other reason than to stop yourselves from looking idiotic. Thanks.

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  18. Clean up the blog by any combination of the following - require posters to sign in(yeah I'll have to get an account) and/or display the IP address of the posters.

    And YEAH! to the cold air coming back!

    Andy

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  19. Now if we could just News 8 to help us out with that...I don't think it is a high priority for them though.

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  20. Get the sun tan lotion out. Latest data suggests no cold air surprise until February. Then guess what it will get pushed back again on and on we go. Give it up people.

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    1. That's the spirit anon! Never say die!!

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  21. Almost ready to have the lawn dethatched and aerated. Can't wait for that first round of golf on Friday. Just saw some robins in the lawn too!!!

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    1. If you want to golf on Friday prepare to be rained on. Saturday will likely be much better, partly sunny and 52 based on the NWS forecast. I hope those robins have their fluffy coats ready for what awaits them and us. Besides aren't robins a year-round species in our region? Wouldn't surprise me if you saw some if that's the case.

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    2. Have to reply to the robin comment - yes, they do winter here. Interestingly, the ones we see in the winter, spend their summers further north, and "our" robins (that summer here) mostly migrate south for the winter. Pretty neat.

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  22. AO looks progged to take a sharp nosedive very soon. That alone won't bring our cold pattern, it's what occurs later on that matters. Most PNA ensemble members go to neutral after mid month, NAO members are scattered around but mainly on the negative side. 12z GFS brings an asinine amount of cold, probably overdoing it as it usually does. You don't want too strong of an arctic blast anyway if you like snow, it can have a tendency to shove the storm track too far to the south to keep us in line for storm threats. Take much of February 2010 for example, only once the Jet Stream began to retreat north did we see our one decent storm at the end of that month.

    In the meantime, Saturday looks like it will be a great day for an outdoor reprieve. At least with this warmup we won't be seeing endless clouds and rain. Warm air is useless when it's rainy and dreary all the time.

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  23. I'm wondering if my idea of the 20th might be a little late. I'm SLIGHTLY interested in the next Wednesday/Thursday period instead of the 18th. Euro has the -NAO back.. and went crazy with it. I realize it is volatile from run to run but it's just an observation.

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  24. 00z run tonight is the most important run in the history of weather modeling.

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  25. What do you mean Caledonia about the 00z run?

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  26. Just me being dumb. 18z GFS was not so cool near the end of the run. Our anonymous friend would be dancing in the streets if that verified. I can see ways this upcoming period could be a swing and miss and I get a little antsy sometimes.

    Just hoping to see that little hiccup not be there on the 00z is all.

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    1. If you value your sanity you should not hug the operational models, especially not intermediate runs like the 18z GFS. None of them have a solid handle on the pattern, even if they show the right idea from time to time. Ensembles are where it's at, and they've consistently painted a solid winter pattern starting later next week, with average/below average temperatures through the end of the upcoming 16 day period.

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  27. I agree and I shouldn't be hanging on each op run. I've told myself to stop looking past 7 days and to not even look at the operational runs. I still do it. I could probably stop posting every random thought I have on here and stop making a fool of myself though. lol

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    1. Eh, don't worry about it. Your random thoughts are certainly much more welcome than the asinine ramblings of our anonymous trolling troglodyte. He's the only one making a fool of himself.

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  28. Well, you certainly see how important that Western ridge is on the 00z GFS.

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  29. Bought the flip flops yesterday for the early spring coming this weekend and beyond. All signs still pointing towards that cold air and snow hoping being pushed back into mid February. Oh wait now end of February, no March. You get the picture.

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    1. What signs are you referring to anonymous? please elaborate

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  30. Mr. Hetsko is the sign because he is honest and has not been real strong with his backing for cold and snow coming. He does not just hype up things for hype like his counterparts. I am not going to read all the models(data) for you farmington. I am sure you can do that. Just wait and see it play out. When all you avid winter lovers are crying that all you had was one storm this entire winter then you will be thinking of me. Just get your spring/summer things ready early this year. Yours truly "The Troll"

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  31. All signs are mixed. Not sure what you are looking at or who you are listening to. If you can tell me what it's going to be like in 10 days after the last 36 hours of modeling.. you should be leading the Climate Prediction Center.

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  32. Ok Anon then how come everyone else can say all signs are pointing to big changes coming and pretty much assuring it will happen 10 days away? I have my own scientific data and knowledge that I do not care to share on this blog. You just mark it down the rest of this winter will be very much like last years.

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  33. Once again "The Troll", all the teleconnections favor a much colder and snowier pattern mid next week and beyond. The models are beginning to catch on to this and will come into better agreement by this weekend. And when we get some decent snow next Thursday through Sunday, I actually will be thinking of you and how wrong your predictions were!! If your gonna troll this blog, at least use some data/numbers/facts to back up your "winter's over theory"...

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  34. All I know is that I'm going to enjoy spending the entire day outside on saturday when it's 50, partly sunny and hopefully rain free. And then looking forward to next week with more seasonable or colder and hopefully snowy conditions.

    Andy

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  35. My only concern at the moment is the MJO forecasted to loop back into phase 6. It's a ways off still but that would be very ungood if it happens. To my untrained eye, it looks like it is currently driving the bus.

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  36. There is a guy at work who is just like anonymous. Would laugh at me whenever it was warm. He just couldn't understand why it bothered me so much. He quit doing it after I told him what he was doing was like me laughing at him if it rained every time he wanted to golf during the summer. He still took some jabs but he was a decent enough human to quit the open mocking.

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  37. It will be looping back and will not help the winter pattern change and thus continue to lead it getting pushed back. Caledonia you are smart the MJO drives the whole weather pattern it is a big thing. All have thought it was going to a favorable phase but it is not. But what do I know people just call me mean names like a troll but in the end I will be right.

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  38. MJO doesn't trump all when every teleconnection favors cold and snow, however it may shorten its stay...

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  39. Can't see them yet..but I'm reading that the 12z modeling looks good. Anonymous.. MJO only drives the pattern when it's high amplitude. If it becomes weak..other forcing takes over. We are getting a cold shot next week. Only question I think is duration.

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  40. Not to mention it could loop back around and go through phase 7-8-1-2 end of January and through February. All assuming the signal remains strong..that could put a damper on the early spring talk just as easily as it going the other way or dying out all together.

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  41. Troll,

    It seems you have become the "old andrew" (sorry andrew) in which he was consistently negative and a know it all with regards to no winter etc. I dont think you would be meeting such resistance on this blog if you were to take the approach of stating your opinions based on data and leaving out the gloating, know it all, and pat me on the back attitude. If in fact your predictions come true, it would be nice to know how you came to your conclusions, otherwise it could simply be luck that what you say and what really happens are the same thing. Anyone can say winter is over and have a 50/50 shot at being right. So I think I speak for all of us when I say quit the cocky attitude and just have a discussion with people instead of simply telling them they are wrong and you are right. I hope this helps you understand. If you give negativity, you will get it, or sarcasm right back.

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    1. oh, and we call you troll because you have refused to give yourself a name, if not your real name even just a blog name would give you some credibility vs. anonymous. If you are so confident, wouldnt you want people to know it was you and not someone else pretending to be anonymous?

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  42. I'm still waiting for this mysterious "data" that our Troll keeps referencing. It isn't hard to make reference to data, I can't see a reason why he "won't care to share it." That tells me that he doesn't actually have any data, and is simply trying to get under everyone's skin.

    Guess what? Ensemble data still suggests a period of average/below average temperatures for several days starting later next week. The NAEFS, which one can find on weatheroffice.gc.ca and which has been quite skillful since last winter, implies something similar, but closer to average in the 8-14 day period. Which is actually great if you like snow, because it would imply a closer proximity to the mean storm track. Bottom line: whether you are expecting spring to be in full bloom on MLK day or a historically frigid 1977-type pattern, chances are you will be sorely disappointed. There is little doubt of an extended wintry period with occasional short bouts of very cold air, however. Just not the six week ultra-frigid icebox being hyped up by some outside this blog.

    One more note: weather is not a sporting event, gloating and laughing at people about it is plain pathetic. None of us have any IMMEDIATE impact on it, thus we should not act like we do.

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