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Friday, January 18

BITTER COLD, SNOWY PATTERN NEXT WEEK


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Happy Friday everyone!  After some modest lake snow last night, the weather pattern will become favorable for localized heavy lake effect snow next week.  Bitter cold temperatures along with a series of upper air vorticies will combine to produce fluffy lake snows.  Obviously it's WAY too early to try to put numbers on next week but I will say that towns North and near Route 104 stand to collect the highest tallies.  Even Rochester and Monroe county can get significant accumulations in this type of set up.

We'll keep you updated on the specifics as we get closer but if you're ready for more snow then this is the week for you!

Have a great weekend!

78 comments:

  1. VERY ready, but what about us in the southertier? (Wayland) Do we stand a chance at much or is it mainly north of the thruway?

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  2. there you go anonymous - get those clubs out!

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  3. Scott thanks for the update. Is this going to be similar to the stretch in January 2004. It appears there is going to be a trough hanging around the area from Monday to Thursday. With the arctic air in place and a bit of help from this synoptic feature and we could be shoveling in western NY even before a possible area wide more significant storm Friday.

    Get ready for Winter, Spring is going to have to wait for a while this year.

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    1. I'm going to be watching that Friday storm. I'm hoping temps aren't an issue. Right now it looks to me after that storm we have a mild day or two while the pattern reloads and we do this all over again. A fella can hope can't he?

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  4. So much for the snowless pattern people were yammering about. This is actually starting to remind me of a stretch in December 2010, with not as much snow but still a decent amount over a lengthy period of time. The late week system may bring a short interruption to the cold pattern before a reload arrives in its wake. At which point Troll Anon will emerge from his cave to announce that he has opened his pool.

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  5. Looking at the data I do not see it and I know Scott has said it and that is why maybe I am looking at things wrongly. I see the winter chill but not any significant snow the next ten days. I am still keeping the gloves and boots in the closet.

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    1. Hard to pinpoint totals with lake snow. Forecasting it is something I wont even read about because it's complex and make my eyes cross. Seems to me to have the highest bust potential even when you are pretty confident in it.

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    2. If the data you're looking at is any global model then you should know that their lower resolution means they can't discern localized heavier lake effect bands. There are short range mesoscale models run by the NWS BUF office that do a much better job with that. In any event, as Scott said the best shot at significant snow should be east of Rochester. The entire region stands a chance at the kind of snow that slowly adds up over time, rather than dumping on us all at once. This is because of a trough which is shown to hang back over the Great Lakes Sunday night through Wednesday night, producing a hybrid synoptic/lake effect snow shower setup.

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  6. Wow surprised how quiey this blog is? We must not be going to get any snow the next week.

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  7. Latest GFS takes bigger storm next weekend well east of us another miss just like last winter. How about those spring like temperatures today? Early winter starting with a few seasonable temperatures next week with a little snow.

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  8. There could be a high wind warning issued for tomorrow because I think winds could be really strong when the cold front comes through. I believe that some areas are going to get hit with a lot of LES snow from tomorrow night through Wednesday. It will be localized but feel north of thruway could get good amounts. As for next weekend anon I would not say we are out of the path of that one yet. Still early but it will be a major snow storm for someone and we have to watch it. That is how I see it but I am not an expert.

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  9. SNOW IS COMING NEXT WEEK!!!!!! The spring temps wont last long you better enjoy them today. I would not MODEL HUG late next weeks storm.

    Last thing, you might as well just use your username ANDREW. YES ANDREW it has been very easy to see who it has been, posting as Anonymous all along. Wording and persistent know it all attitude gave it away weeks ago. SPRING IS NOT HERE BY ALONG SHOT!!!!!!!!!!!!! GET THOSE SHOVELS READY!!!! THIS WINTER IS NOT LAST YEARS WINTER!!!!!!

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  10. SORRY ANDREW THIS IS WHERE I STICK MY FOOT IN MY MOUTH!!!!!!!! I ALSO don't think you had changed your attitude, BUT I WAS WRONG. You haven't posted in a while. I APOLOGIZE FOR LAST BLOG BEING NEGATIVE TOWARD YOU.

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  11. I was posting I thought that was unfair Hamlin but thanks for the post. I have not been posting the negative winter stuff that anonymous is saying. I am trying to say what I think since Scott let me back. I always only say at the end that is how I see it.

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  12. Hamlin is correct that model hugging is never a good idea. That said, the latest GFS is not a miss by any means for the end of next week, as it depicts us getting a period of moderate snow.

    And Troll Anon, it's time to cut the crap about spring coming soon. You've beaten that drum so hard I'm surprised it hasn't broken yet. The NWS forecasts highs in the teens Monday through Wednesday of next week, including a mere 17 on Wednesday. That's 14 degrees below average, which is not "seasonable" by any stretch of the imagination. Snow chances will abound as well, none of them will be that big of a deal but we'll likely be dealing with more than just "a little snow." Modest amounts adding up over time, that's the theme.

    As for today, the fact that it's a mild day is completely ruined by a stiff wind leading to wind chills in the 30's. I don't know about anyone else, but I'd rather have a calm 25 than a windy 45.

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  13. Next weeks storm is actually looking better than it was before in terms of track and cold air vs. warm air advection (I find it funny that spell check on here doesn't know this word), so I'm not sure what anon is talking about. Yes the 12z takes it east of us but we are fairly close to the sweet spot. Given the way things have been lately I wouldn't be surprised if later runs push it farther south and east but like Hamlin said model hugging at this point is pointless. With that aside, this week really looks great for LES opportunities. I think the blog is quiet because there isn't much to talk about until the LES actually begins to set up over the next few days. Once mid-week rolls around and temps take the plunge, snow begins piling (for some of us), and the upcoming storm is more set in stone (hopefully), things will become more active here.

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  14. Also the MJO forecast is looking better than before

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  15. NWS has issued a high wind warning from 1:00am until 4:00 pm tomorrow. Just an fyi would imagine there will be LES snow advisories or warnings at some point. That is how I see it!

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  16. I hate high wind so much. Some heavy lake effect would make it a little better....

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  17. Friday's NWS forecast high has been lowered from 37 to 29 with a 50 percent chance of snow. Four days next week are forecasted to have highs in the teens. brrrrr

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  18. 12z Euro has Arctic air all week, no signs of warm air. Low 20's at best late next week. The lakes look to be primed all week for LES. I could also do without the strong winds tonight. They should calm down tomorrow afternoon as the storm exits quickly. January snowfall totals might be helped out a lot the next two weeks. I still feel totals will end up at or above average this January for most, from Thruway north. Very exciting wintery pattern we are heading into with these WINDS OF CHANGE.

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  19. A major limiting factor for lake effect will be the lack of low level moisture, which will keep totals from getting too out of hand. Still, areas north of the thruway look good for at least modest amounts of lake effect next week.

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  20. This is reminding me a lot of Early January 2004, it is just a few weeks later. This setup really favors areas like Hamlin, light winds with northwest arctic cold flow. Cold air spends a lot of time over the lake with added nighttime land breezes causing convergence along the lake shore. This setup will overcome the lack of synoptic moisture. There will be widespread VERY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS NEXT WEEK for areas south of Lake Ontario. Snowfall will be the greatest at nighttime hours. I AM VERY, VERY EXCITED about next week and beyond.

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  21. I can definitely see the snow pile up pretty nicely near the lake shore, in fact the NWS discussion mentions tea kettle type lake effect hitting lake shore areas much of the time. They also mention a convergent flow overcoming the lack of moisture to some extent. Being in Henrietta I can only wish that the overall wind flow was stronger so the more significant lake snow would spread across more of the region and include my house.

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  22. Here is HPC's forecast for QPF through Wednesday:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

    That would be a widespread 5-10 inches of snow given the low temperatures, and taken strictly verbatim. I think amounts nearest to the lake will be higher than that, but it's not HPC's job to take that level of localization into account.

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  23. Lake effect is nearly impossible to accurately forecast days out, but a general nw/wnw flow through the duration of Sunday through mid-late week will favor the lakeshore from Orleans to Wayne Counties. One thing to watch is a possible connection to Georgian Bay, helping Orleans County out a bit. Also, winds die down after tomorrow night, which will help to increase the residence time over the lake. Moisture is a huge factor in these lake effect events. You HAVE to have the moisture along with the cold air! I'd say Monday night through Tuesday may have the heaviest snow. Also, as far as the late-week storm goes, it's looking colder today than yesterday, which would keep us all snow. We'll take the lake snow day by day!

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  24. It looks like most of the snow will fall North of 104 and East into Wayne county where the city and airport South may see very little.

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  25. Kind of confusing because Scott said yesterday even Rochester and Monroe county can get significant LES from this set-up? Seems like that is now less likely?

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    1. Isn't Monroe county and Rochester in between here:

      "will favor the lakeshore from Orleans to Wayne Counties".

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  26. Scott I thought the series of upper air vortices would supply the moisture for lake effect snow?

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  27. Anonymous 10:57 has the geography right ha ha must have been the spring miser anon in the other one.

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  28. Places in Michigan reporting gusts near 60 MPH with power outages.

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  29. The low pressure at the end of the week does not look impressive at all with most snow falling south and east of us. There looks to be a major storm after that that, right now, looks to go west of us leaving us on the warm side until the cold front passes. The snow for us this week looks less and less likely, but we will see.

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  30. It looks like Eastern Wayne into the Syracuse area could get quite a bit of lake effect snow. 6-12. They have lake effect advisories out. MOst of Wayne county West will see a few scattered snow showers over the next few days. Last years pathetic snow total is creeoing up on this years. We have had only 29 inches this year, which,most of it feel from 1 storm and then 1 lake effect event a few days later. Last year at this time we had about 17 inches. We should have about 50 inches by now. I hope this snowless pattern changes soon because January is almost over and then we have February and maybe March. March could go either way. Over the past few years March has been quite snowless and warm.

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    1. You do know there is going to be more than one lake effect event this week don't you? Can we see what happens this week before we start with "we never get any snow" posts? And lets not be nailing down storm tracks for storms that are 6-8 days away.

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    2. yeah seriously macedon, you are the biggest Debbie Downer. I don't understand your baseless negativity on everything.

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  31. It will snow in western ny this week YOU WILL SEE. The NWS is always late for advisories in Monroe and Orleans. Once the Lake Snow starts to fly later tonight ATTITUDES will change quickly on this blog page.

    GIVE THIS PATTERN AND LES A CHANCE BEFORE CALLING JANUARY A LOSE!!!

    Now I have to go plow snow OT, keep it coming.

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  32. Had a lightning strike near Perry Center around 5am. I don't recall having lightning in Jan. before.

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  33. Yes most areas especially near and North of the thruway will see significant lake snows this week. I agree with "Hamlin" that this air mass is similar to January 2004 when it snow 3-6" most days. Northern parts of Monroe, Orleans and especially Wayne county will have over 12" of snow by Wednesday night.

    Scott

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  34. Looks like the latest GFS shows we should be for sure watching the storm next Thursday/Friday time frame. It looks to me like we would get 8-10 inches if it verifies. Wondering what the other weather people think. Scott what do you think about this storm?

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    1. Looks more like 4-7 inches to me at this point. I'd like to hear what Scott and other people think as well.

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    2. Looking at it again I may be low-balling it a little, but we all know the "if" in "if it verifies" is a big if.

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  35. Euro and GFS are coming into agreement for next Friday. It isn't the greatest but it doesn't look bad either and the lake might help us out a bit. I'd say it's still worth watching and we will be getting some snow but of course who knows how much. Also LES should really explode this week in the favored areas. The difference between lake temps and 850mb temps is pretty huge. The only real factor working against significant LES is lack of moisture - but I'm with Scott and I'm thinking we will all be pretty jealous of areas east of Rochester by mid-week...fingers crossed for getting lucky with some LES in the metro, we all know this stuff can have a mind of it's own. LES can be just as interesting to watch as big storms for me, so I'm happy.

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  36. Scott,

    Thanks for the post. The continuous negativity of some, about this winter is to much to handle, it is making me very bitter. I will not give up on this winter until it is in the books.

    Andrew,

    I agree something to watch. I like the track the 0z Euro and the 12z GFS has it taking. This track would have the heaviest synoptic snow falling along the NY, PA boarder. Western NY would also pickup on significant snowfall. That is a favorable track for Lake Enhancement off Ontario. Followed by more significant LES next Saturday. It is way to early to but numbers on it, but it will be something to watch making an exciting week of weather, to say the least.

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  37. Living in Sodus Point, I will keep everyone posted with what's happening on the ground. Friday during the day, a nice little plume of snow set up right here, putting us in the sweet spot and giving a solid 5-6" of snow. Driving west towards Webster on Lake Road, the snow slowly thinned out to nothing. My fiance, who lives in Webster, was shocked when I told her that I had to run the snowblower that afternoon. Areas south of 104 had little accumulation.

    Right now, the wind is blowing hard out of the WNW about 20-30 mph with gusts over 40. Lots of evaporation occurring over the lake, but it is falling as scattered heavy lake effect on Oswego County. If winds die down a bit and the winds stay oriented to the west, Oswego Co. and the Tug Hill could easily get a foot of snow.

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  38. Lake effect band is starting to get better organized now. There is a connection to Lake Huron forming that might put Orleans and Monroe county in the advisory range later this evening. I expect this band to get its act together this evening as the winds begin to settle down and the 850mb Temp continues to drop. I do see Orleans and Monroe counties getting in on the advisories or warning before the morning. We will see.

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  39. Snowing moderately in Hamlin with 20-30 MPH winds LOVE IT. Waiting for the phone to ring anytime, more OT.

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  40. Not sure what all are seeing not one flake flying out my window and 36 degrees? More spring like weather to me. Some will get snow but majority will not. Storm end of the week is weak and south? Get out your spring gear still not backing off that it is coming early.

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    1. It's 27 degrees at the airport. Where do you live where it's still 36 degrees? You must have really low standards as to what spring is if you consider 36 degrees to be spring-like. Saying the majority won't get snow is a direct contradiction to what Scott said, so I'm guessing either you don't know how to read or you just like being stubborn. Storm end of the week isn't terribly strong but it isn't that weak either, and it could easily change on the models. You'll be backing off on the spring talk when your thermometer doesn't get above 20 most of next week.

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    2. No..you said winter was already over. Spring being early is a different call. Nice try.

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  41. I liked Macedon more when he lost the negativity for a whopping 5 days earlier this season. At least he isn't talking like he knows what will happen this time so it's much more bearable.

    I feel really happy for Hamlin, just wish I could have his situation (not the OT plowing but the 12+ inches of snow). Geography is a cruel mistress sometimes, but I'll take my possibly significant accumulation any day. At least I'm north of the Thruway and not in a snow hole like Dansville. The late week storm isn't a gangbuster but w/e I'll take it. I only need one or two major storms each season to keep me satisfied.

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  42. There's a 500 mile long streamer originating on Lake Huron and stretching all the time to Vermont! If it drops a few miles south, I will be getting slammed with LES.

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  43. I am thinking that from Webster to Sodus to Wolcott right along 104 will get a lot of snow tonight... I think that the band that is over the like will intensify and drop 3 miles south and 104 will get pounded... We could see warnings posted later tonight if this is right.

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  44. They have posted Lake effect snow warnings for the south shore of lake erie where they will get 1-2 ft of lake fluff by Wednesday according to the NWS.

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  45. People north of 104 will be happy anyway. The rest of us, we will see what happens.

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  46. Charles, what about north of 104 Monroe, Orleans county?

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  47. Lake effect Warnings just went up for Wayne county East, nothing for Monroe County West.

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  48. Lake Snow warnings out for Wayne Cayuga and Oswego Counties

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  49. David what is your take about the LES and possible storm at the end of the week?

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  50. I dont think that band is going to drop south..

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  51. I havent really look at Fridays storm yet.. Just got back in town.... Looks like band over ontario has stabilized in movement for the time being....

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  52. I'm a little surprised that the NWS didn't go with an advisory in Monroe County to account for the lakeshore communities. Then again, they have a tendency to overlook the counties west of Wayne, and usually end up issuing headlines at some point. I remember last season we got over a foot from lake effect and there wasn't even a headline of any kind until the event was well underway. By the time we finally got an upgrade to a warning the event was half over. The whole time Scott was driving home the point that it was an ideal setup for metro Rochester, and to expect significant accumulations. That was before the event began.

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  53. I dont think the band will drop south too much but the band will thinken up a bit as well as even just a 1-2 mile drop south will result in lakeshore communities getting hit hard.

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  54. The NWS point-and-click forecast calls for a low of 2 in my neighborhood Tuesday night O___o

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  55. If anything, looks like its moving slightly north....

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  56. 5 day QPF chart through Friday, courtesy of HPC:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif

    Taken verbatim, and again considering the low temperatures, that would equate to 12-18 inches of snow in our region over the course of the week.

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  57. For a very few that would equal 12-18 inches so please do not mislead all. The storm at the end of the week looks like as I said this morning south and east of us on the latest GFS run. Plus not an impressive storm at all.

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    1. That's why I said TAKEN VERBATIM. Where is your proof that the 12-18 inches would be for a very few? Nice job citing an intermediate run of an operational model for the late week event, too bad the more reliable Euro is further north with the track. No one is expecting an impressive storm at all, it will probably be a moderate/somewhat significant event for someone. With everything taken into account, it's not unreasonable to conclude that a foot or more of snow could happen for most by the end of the week.

      Have you at least given up on your super-early spring idea?

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    2. It's obviously not going to be a blizzard we tell the grand kids about.. but I wouldn't write it off completely as a moderate snow event. The track south and east is going to keep it all snow anyway.

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  58. The band is back moving southward again.

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  59. Nothing but a stray flake or two out here so far. However, looking out over the lake, the view is quite ominous. Northern Cayuga and southern Oswego County getting hit HARD right now. Fulton is getting slammed.

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  60. Dont tell me that... I have to work in Wolcott at 4 AM tomorrow and I am driving from Ontario

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  61. Better plan to leave at 3:30, Anonymous.

    As of 6:45, it is snowing moderately here.

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  62. I have to be there at 4 I am leaving at 2:45 should give me enough time to get there

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  63. I misread your post - I thought you had to leave at 4:00. When you get up, check the radar! If you are still up now to see this post!

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  64. Perfectly clear skies here in West-Central Wayne county. The BIG story this week will be the cold not the snow. I am not being negative for the snow lovers but most of us will not see a lot of snow this week. I think most of us will still have green grass come Wednesday.

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    1. There's a new thread you know...

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