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Thursday, January 17

Cold Wants to Stick Around



Written by: Stacey Pensgen

It looks like winter wants to stick around for a while, at least in the temperature department. Both long range models (GFS & EURO) really want to hang onto the unseasonably cold temperatures through the end of the month. Both models have quick little "warm-ups" as surges of warmer air get drawn into the Northeast with a few storm systems. GFS is more aggressive drawing the warmer air in, but even so, that warmer air is just marginal for a rain/snow mix. That being said, those storms are a week away, and plenty can change then. I guess the point of this blog is just to emphasize the fact that winter IS here for a while, now we just need to get some snow to go along with the temps.

The clipper on Sunday looks like it'll give us a fresh few inches. In terms of lake effect, winds are awfully strong at the start of it, which would cut back on residence time over the lake, and the fetch is shorter, so lake enhancement may  not be all that great, but it'll help at least a little.

28 comments:

  1. Just cold really boring who likes real cold temperatures without snow? This winter stinks again.

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    Replies
    1. Did you even read the last paragraph?

      "The clipper on Sunday looks like it'll give us a fresh few inches."

      And there should be more clippers and some lake effect afterwards. And hey, at least there's no rain in the forecast.

      I can answer your question though: ice fishermen.

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  2. ...and those of us with ice rinks in our backyards.

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  3. However, those of us with livestock don't like the super cold temps - with or without snow! Snow is better than hard frozen ground, but I can do without the below zero, single digits, and teens.

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  4. GEFS has the MJO moving smartly into phase 8 after a short pause in phase 7 over the next week.

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  5. So what does that mean Caledonia?

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    Replies
    1. Phases 7, 8, and 1 put us in a more favorable position for snowfall

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    2. I should add that phase in particular 8 can contribute to storm tracks up through the eastern states and increase chances of us getting a good snowstorm. Of course there are other factors at work as well.

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    3. *phase 8 in particular

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  6. Euro dropping ejecting that shortwave way further south than the GFS for next thursday... Keep your eyes peeled for a potential snow maker!

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  7. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 17, 2013 at 9:47 PM

    Moderate snow in Penfield/Webster right now (Creek/Empire/Browncroft Blvd). Probably have at least 1/2 inch, ground is white, still snowing. Is this lake effect or synoptic, looks like its coming off of Erie from the radar, but I am just a novice on this.

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  8. I love how bitter bitter cold now neans 10 degrees. Years ago bitter cold was minus 10 and people want to question global warming. The "arctic blast" is a joke. And two inches of snow gets everyone excited. A weak winter with spring in view get ready.

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    Replies
    1. I love how you can apply present tense adverbs to future events. And I'm still waiting eagerly for your overwhelming proof in an early spring. Weren't we supposed to be planting our tulips by now according to you?

      Spring keeps getting pushed back...

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    2. I love how you try to hide your failed forecast by being critical of the one that was right.

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  9. It looks and feels like winter in Hamlin again not a big event by any means but it is nice to see. I also just banked 3 hrs OT, I will take it. Next week still looks snowy and cold for the most part WINTER IS BACK.

    Michele in Penfield,
    This is lake effect off of Ontario enhanced a little by some upper level energy swinging through. Early next week will be much the same but it might be more favorable for some bigger snow totals. I also agree with Weather Guy, late next week might there might be a system with significant snow possibilities. Either way it is far from spring weather, I LOVE IT!!!!

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  10. A few inches of fluff here in Henrietta. Looked pretty while it was falling, big dry flakes with little wind...a perfect winter night IMO. Wasn't expecting enough to cover the grass, just goes to show how snowfall can sneak up on us sometimes.

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  11. Just walked the block to get to work here in Newark...the snow looked pretty good all the green is covered and the brisk winter air felt great...

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  12. No big snow events in site same old story nickle and dime us. As I have stated spring is still here a little. Did anyone see Saturdays high? Keep the sunglasses out. Also cold not as cold as they predicted next week. As I have stated normal winter termperatures.

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    Replies
    1. You stated spring is here a little? You told us to get pool chemicals and lawn mowers ready! You are going to use a few hours of semi mild temperatures to claim victory? One can't help but chuckle.

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    2. Apparently one semi mild day among several frigid ones means spring is in full bloom. Who would've guessed? I've got the sunglasses out already, on this cold yet sunny day. Seeing the sunrise on my walk this morning amidst the fresh snow was a treat.

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  13. Picked up about 1.5 whopping inches last night. It looked pretty but with temps in the 40's tomorrow it will all be gone. I definately think we are in a nickle and dime pattern with no storms in sight unless you go to the South.

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    Replies
    1. There won't even be storms south of us. Split jet stream flow + dry continental airmass = no big storms for anyone. This is a clipper pattern, where mainly northern areas (including us) get small amounts of snow that add up over time. Better than nothing I'd say.

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  14. I am with just about everyone here. Cold air with no snow is a waste of cold air...I say bring on the snow...

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  15. I have said this over and over again the one storm we had right after Christmas is it for the winter. Just like last winter cold no storm or goes west of us and we get rain. We have plenty of cold now and no storms. It will get warm and we will get rain when stroms come. Get use to it please and stop complaining. Calendar may say different but winter is over and get ready for mid 40s tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WRONG AGAIN! Looks like you lose again LOSER.

      Perhaps you should get a life?

      Bet you live in mommy's basement and you have rosey palms.

      Delete

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