Welcome Back to January!
Written by John DiPasquale:
What a difference a day makes!! The third warmest January day ever recorded in Rochester when the record of 69° was hit at about 1 Sunday afternoon has been replaced, as expected, by more typical January air to begin the week. At noon temperatures were in the low to mid 30s, which is for most about 25 to 35 degrees colder than we were this time yesterday!! Wow! Today will be quiet with a glimmer of sun here & there to finish out the day, but for the most part clouds should hang tough.
After some clearing occurs tonight, we should see some sun on our Tuesday with a seasonable chill. Temps will warm to near 40 Wednesday with a blustery breeze developing and a few flurries possibly developing. An Arctic front will squeak through late Wednesday night/early Thursday providing a taste of arctic air for Thursday into the start of Friday with highs likely to be between 20 & 25 Thursday & starting the day in the teens Friday before we moderate in advance of a developing storm over the West-Central Great Lakes later Friday & especially Saturday. Sunday at this early vantage point appears to be a transition day, & much of next week could turn VERY, VERY COLD!!! We'll see...Stay tuned for updates through the week.
Have a good one all!
Cold isn't so bad, I just hope the snow goes elsewhere. Good to see it gone.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we're going to see a ton of snow through this period, but I would be surprised if the grass was still showing by this time next week. Get your jackets back out, cause it looks like the cold is coming back with a vengeance!!!
ReplyDeleteSaturday night and Sunday could be rather snowy and intresting around here. That clipper looks to have alot of energy with it and alot of cold air behind it. The 12Z EURO has that clipper further south than the 12Z GFS. Either way the very cold air and lake effect look to follow for the next week. The EURO also has the very cold air pushing in next week.
ReplyDeleteSorry spring loving Anonymous, you better put the shorts and gulf clubs away. VERY COLD WITH SNOW LOOKS GOOD TO ME!!!!!
Cold without snow is a waste of cold air. The opportunities for snow look very limited.
ReplyDeleteThe ski resorts will be able to make snow. Clearly not a waste.
ReplyDeleteAndy
I know it is only January 14th, but with no significant snow in sight January may end up being well below normal in snowfall. We will see.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it will be like December! Started boring, ended snowy!
ReplyDeleteMacedon,
ReplyDeleteWe typically get most of our snow during the season from small systems like clippers, troughs, fronts and lake effect snow NOT LARGE STORMS. Just because there are no East coast storms does not mean it will be snowless. During the next few weeks we will get our fair share of snow, and with the cold air it will stick around longer than a few days. I will take this pattern over a big east coast system on one day to see all the snow melt the next day.
We will get plenty of snow in this pattern before it is all said and done. January will not be well below average. I think it will be average or above average before it is over. We will see but I am excited about the upcoming weeks, WINTER IS FINALY BACK.
Completely agree HP we will get snow. And your right we get to our 90" average as you say, an 1nch or 3 at a time, not large storms.
DeleteAndy
The alarmist on another channel seems set on a Sunday/Monday vigerous clipper that needs to be watched? Wishful hype or the real deal?
ReplyDeleteI know the Euro model was showing a rather vigorous clipper at one point, seems to have gone away from that idea for now. I know exactly who you're talking about, he's a notorious global warming denier on top of being a cold and snow monger. Always places some sort of storm threat at the end of his 7 day forecast and 95 percent of the time they don't occur. That said, I feel like there should be several opportunities for minor/moderate snowfall during next week, but nothing too significant.
DeleteHow does a clipper to watch make anyone an alarmist?
DeleteThe 12z EURO still has that energetic clipper almost overhead on Saturday night. 12z Euro is trending that clipper further south than the 0z run has it. Euro HAS NOT gotten rid of it all. If it moves more south it could be our next shot at decent accumulating snow. It needs to be watched. Either way it will be bringing in the true Arctic air and accumulating LES.
ReplyDeleteScott what are your thoughts, Sundays clipper HYPE or POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER needing to be watched?
This is from the CPC regarding next week:
ReplyDeleteLAKE-EFFECT SNOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW FAVORS NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
Thus reinforcing the notion that while no big storms are in sight, we will very likely NOT be snowless.
All hype as usual. There are NO BIG snowfalls in sight for at least the next 10 days so again people will start hoping/hypeing snow. The temps will not be that cold either.Your basic garden style winter temperatures. Hang in there as I have been saying spring has sprung last Sunday and will continue.As you have noticed Scott has not chimed in much about the cold or snow. He knows it is no big deal and always tell it like it is. Thus he does not want all the snow mongers to get angry so silence is the best method.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have thoughts as to how long this arctic intrusion coming Sun/Mon might last? A few days...a few weeks?
ReplyDeleteMy guess would be just a few days. Then back to normal temperatures .. no extreme cold or warmth. I'm hitting the snooze button until this weekend at least.
ReplyDeleteJust depressing to own a snowmobile right now...I am on the edge of selling mine yet a part of me keeps hoping although I don't know why as the chance of snow seems slim according to Scott's forcast last night for the rest of January....just like last year I kept holding on to hope. There is always Dec...there is always Jan....well Feb. is usually snowy...guess not but March produces big storms....you get the picture. Is it worth holding onto a snowmobile anymore?
ReplyDeleteI feel the same way. Kicking myself for not getting out during the brief period in December. I was looking back at winter history and it isn't that uncommon to have multiple dead ratter winters around here. That doesn't make me feel any better but it keeps that glimmer of hope alive that we will eventually get a block buster winter again.
DeleteThere have also been some winters that turned completely around after a slow start.. though counting on that makes my hair fall out.
Right! The waiting for things to turn around is stressful when you're trying to make a decision to sell or not. If I sell, it will be a snowy Feb. and March. If I don't it won't snow much at all.
DeleteSell it then! Just kidding.. Euro weeklies says it stays cold around here until at least mid February for whatever that is worth. I'm hoping the Tug Hill can get something so I can at least trailer it up there.
DeleteI see Troll Anon is still in major denial. Spring has not sprung and the cold is coming. Besides how can something "continue" when it has already stopped?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me like the very cold air will hang around for more than just a few days. Some moderation may occur next weekend, but of a "less cold but still rather cold" moderation. No extended thaw will occur for at least a few weeks. Not worth looking beyond that, as there is no reliable data that goes out that far. Next week's theme remains: very cold with no big storms, but NOT snowless. And those of you on the verge of giving up on any big storms the remainder of the season need to remember that patterns rarely last longer than a few weeks. For now, just be glad it isn't 43 and muddy :)
I guess I was referring to the harshest of the cold only lasting a few days next week. I'm hoping anonymous doesn't crack his head open diving into the ice on his pool next week.
DeleteThere is the possibility that one of these "no big deal" waves could turn into something a little more moderate over the next 10 days I suppose. But what Ginger and I ( and anyone that snowmobiles ) need is a solid foot of snow on the ground. That looks like it might be tough to do over this forecast period..thus the woe is me posts above.
Ha ha people are getting the picture VERY LITTLE SNOW over the rest of the winter. Sell the snowmobiles they are useless. Still no sign of Scott on blog he may be waiting for the groundhog? Or he knows the complaining will continue when he tells you the real deal about a mild(average temps) and snowless rest of the winter. Keep waiting because I have pointed out it will all keep getting pushed back and before you know it May!
ReplyDeletei just wanted you to know how much i appreciate your wisdom on this blog. I was able to save a ton of money when i scheduled our lawn aerating and seeding to be done next week as opposed to waiting until May since you said spring is here. I really appreciate how you explain everything and comfort us that winter is over. I hate the cold and snow anyways, so I just wanted you to know you are appreciated.
DeleteHa ha people?? Sounds like taunting to me. Is this how an adult should act? @@
DeleteA few points:
Delete1) Average highs right now are in the upper 20's/low 30's, average lows in the high teens/low 20's. Hardly what one would consider "mild."
2) Scott doesn't post here because he is busy not dealing with total idiots like yourself.
3) Nothing has been pushed back, everything is occurring right on schedule. The coldest air is arriving after the 20th, which has been stated here multiple times. Yet you keep insisting it will be pushed back. Notice a trend here?
4) No one can tell how snowy/snowless the rest of winter will be, so you can cut that nonsense out right now.
5) When you contract hypothermia from taking your own advice you'd better hope someone is there to call an ambulance and give you a Darwin award.
6) You, of all people, should not complain about taunting. You've been more guilty of it than any of us, so you have no right to complain.
If you actually believe what you are saying you are in for a shock Anonymous. The coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is right across the border and it's going to be visiting us a few times over the next couple of weeks. Spring isn't a few days away by any stretch of the imagination.
Deleteyou make an insightful comment here anonymous...yes that is what typically happens, if you wait long enough, that darn May comes around. i hate when the calendar does that.
ReplyDeleteIt has been my experience that even with strong subsidence from Arctic high pressure, some localized LES will occur early next week. Huge snow to liquid ratios (25:1) would mean extra fluffy snow that falls near the lake. Temperatures will be VERY cold early next week. I expect low teens for highs and some well below zero readings Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
ReplyDeleteScott
That would have to be some of the coldest readings we've had in several years I would think.
ReplyDeleteAnyone see potential at all for a ground whitening clipper early next week?
It's been a long time since we've had low teens for highs O__o
ReplyDeleteI was thinking what Scott said above but second guessing myself and wondering if I was just getting too excited. I'll be climbing in the Adirondacks Feb 2-4. The coldest temps I've experienced there were close to -25 without windchill. I'm wondering if this next trip will come close if not beat that...on a related note - here are some questions that I hope News 8 will chime in on but if not that's fine, I'd like to get the blog's take on them: Some of my best experiences climbing have been "undercast" days, where once on top of a mountain (usually over 4000ft) I am above the clouds. I know that an inversion such as the one we are under now increases the chance of that happening, as convection is capped and the low level clouds linger. My questions are: is it possible to predict roughly how long we will be experiencing this inversion? What other factors influence the chances of undercast conditions in the mountains (I know moisture and the low angle of the sun play a role)? I know it's next to impossible to predict something like this because the difference between being above the clouds or being in them can be just a few hundred feet, but it's fun to speculate and get excited about the possibilities ahead of time. Who knows, maybe undercast won't be an option because we'll be in a blizzard when a freakishly strong clipper pulls even more strength off the ocean and stalls over us (fingers crossed). Anyway, here's something we can talk about (hopefully) instead of bickering.
ReplyDeleteVERY COLD WITH SNOW from Sunday and Beyond!!! I see many chance for snow after tomorrow, with LES and clippers throughout the forecast period. I WOULD NOT sell the snowmobiles WINTER IS NOT OVER, not even close to over. Give it three weeks and you will see. I am with channel 10 on this one.
ReplyDeleteReally Hamilin Plower??? Maybe I better take my sleds off from craigslist.
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 Hamlin how dare you mention them? What about our own Channel 8? Scott just said below zero temperatures and LES? Be respectful please!
ReplyDeleteIf you reread Scott's post he said that the LES would be near the lake, not widespread across the region. But I do agree on one thing, the Channel 10 Hypemaster doesn't deserve a mention on here unless it's something about the fact that he's a Hypemaster.
DeleteHere is question to all the experts on here. I was wondering what were the weather factors that were prevalent when we had that March 1993 Superstorm? Like all the indices and any other data. Does anyone know I am just interested in what were the ingrediants that created this Superstorm?
ReplyDeleteI'm not an expert, but I've done a little reading about that particular storm. An unusually sharp dip in the jet stream resulted in a storm track through the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast. At the same time, there was a clash of very cold air to the north of the jet stream and warm air to the south. A low pressure developed in the Gulf along the jet stream and due to the sharp temperature contrast strengthened to an absurd level (960 mb minimum central air pressure, about what you would find in a Category 2 hurricane). Since it developed in the Gulf it carried a huge amount of moisture with it, and the end result was a widespread blizzard with lots of snow (as much as 5 feet in some mountainous areas). I'm not sure what the indices were, but I would imagine there was a -NAO/AO and a +PNA.
DeleteScott just wondering do think with those well below zero numbers Tuesday/ Wednesday mornings wind will also be a factor to create dangerous WCs?
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember what the winter of 2001-2002 was like? Did it start off semi warm and end cold? I might have stumbled onto something with the QBO that will win me the Nobel. Just kidding.. but does anyone remember?
ReplyDeleteCaledonia,
Delete2001-2002 Snow grand total of 58"
Nov 0.1
Dec 7.1
Jan 11.9
Feb 18.7
Mar 13.8
April 6.5
That season was sandwiched by two winters that exceeded 130"
Andy
Thanks Andy.. years where it looks to me had a similar evolution of the QBO to this years are 1977-78, 1984-85, 1994-95, 2001-02, and to a lesser extent 1996-97. Do you have a data base you can compare those years with?
DeleteYes I will look at those in an hour or two when I get to my computer. I also will post NWS link where I got the data.
DeleteAndy
Thanks! If you are busy I can do the leg work if you want to give me the link. I don't mean to send you on a wild goose chase for some stupid idea I had.
DeleteHere you go for the years you mentioned.
DeleteMy source data is from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=buf and just select "Rochester Monthly Snowfall" and I just copy/pasted the data into Excel.
77-78 84-85 94-95 96-97 01-02
Nov 12.7 1.6 2.8 24.9 0.1
Dec 35.2 11.6 7.6 14 7.1
Jan 60.4 36.8 12.8 24.8 11.9
Feb 40.7 26.1 23.6 13.3 18.7
Mar 7.5 8.4 5.3 26.4 13.8
Apr 4.2 2.6 4.1 1.3 6.5
Andy
ouch, sorry about the formatting, but I bet you can figure it out.
DeleteAndy
I figured it out.. just turn your head sideways and it looks fine. I really like that NOAA page, thanks for the link.
DeleteI was hoping that all the years when the QBO trended up from negative to positive during mid winter were back end winters. Looking at snow and heating degree days it looks like only 84-85 and 94-95 fit.
From the NWS: Not good for snow.
ReplyDeleteAS POINTED OUT IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER
WEATHER WILL NOT NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ONLY
NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
We will see. I love the cold just as much as the snow. If it don't snow lets breaks some record lows the colder the better. With that said, I still like our snow chance in the coming week and beyond, especially here along lake shore in Hamlin.
DeleteThese clippers, fronts and troughs can be sneaky and under forecasted, 2-3 inch snowfalls every couple of days will add up quickly. Maybe each event is not enough to HYPE up, BUT AS A WHOLE can be very impressive.
I'm not worried about the short term lack of significant snow. These types of huge arctic outbreaks are often dry to start with, plus there should at least be SOME snow with the passage of a few arctic fronts. Not to mention this from the CPC regarding the 6-10 day period:
ReplyDeleteLAKE-EFFECT SNOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
This is an above average confidence outlook from them, FWIW.
We normally get our bigger synoptic snows when the arctic outbreaks relax and we get an over running event. Am I right?
DeleteI believe so. As I recall it seems like most large eastern storms in general occur during/after pattern relaxation.
DeleteFunny how the alarmist on the other channel has backed off his vigorous clipper and snow idea. Yet he has it down to 5 degrees next week while Scott the realist has us at 0 for lows Tuesday and Wednesday. Very interesting. It does look like we are settled in for cold but no big storms for the next several weeks.
ReplyDeleteSeveral weeks is too big of a time span to make that kind of prediction.
DeleteHow long will the temps in the teens last?
ReplyDeleteGuess it's too early to write off snow all together:
ReplyDeleteCOLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS. FOR NOW WILL
JUST RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT
WITHOUT THE DETAILS OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS THE
WIND DIRECTIONS...SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE UNKNOWN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO COME WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ATTEMPT TO FORECAST LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL JUST YET.
Scott you said yesterday that next week you expect some well below zero temperatures. I am wondering if you still think that and if yes are you saying areas up north of Rochester because all the other forecasters have lows at 5-8 degrees next week. Have not heard anyone say below zero temperatures except you. Just wondering what you think today? Thanks
ReplyDeleteStill not buying this arctic intrusion getting to Western, NY. I see it more NW of us. It will be a little cold but not extreme. Snow will be minimal at best and that is it. Not a big deal. Do not put the clubs away because in a few weeks you will be swinging them again in spring temps.
ReplyDeleteSo basically what you're saying is that every expert (including Scott) and every half-decent supercomputer in existence will be wrong? I highly doubt that. Extreme cold would be highs near/below zero and lows below -10, which we already know isn't going to happen. Single digit lows are a pretty safe bet however, with a chance to dip below zero. As for snow, there will be many opportunities next week, mainly of the nuisance variety, but not "minimal at best" by any means. And there are certainly no indications of spring arriving in a few weeks, in fact I would hedge on the side of colder than average temps persisting through the first week of February.
DeleteBy the way I took your advice from a few weeks ago and stashed the winter clothing away for good, only to step outside in my shorts and T-shirt a few days ago and almost freeze to death. And to think I was looking forward to a nice dip in my pool that day...
BRING ON THE COLD I CANT WAIT. Dont give up on snow next week yet. This reminds me of December where almost everyone was ready to pack it in just before Christmas giving up on winter.
ReplyDeleteThe Vigorous clipper is still in the forecast; however, it looks like the track will be far enough north to limit snow accumulations though. The cold looks like a lock now and should stick around for a while.
Not super excited about how quick the Euro takes away the PNA ridge.
ReplyDeleteWhat does that mean Caledonia?
ReplyDeleteVortex lifts north and we moderate some. It also would let more energy into the pattern and as Weatherguy says we have to lose it a little for better snow chances. It wasn't staying there the rest of winter anyway. That ridge spent a good portion of the start of winter to far West. Just want to hold it a little longer now that it is in a good spot. It's one model 8-10 days away so who knows.
DeleteCaledonia, that ridge has to break down a little bit or else it'll be way too cold and dry to support decent snows... And the end of next week bears watching!
ReplyDeleteScott backing off the cold only low single digits no below zero temperatures. Weatherguy so you are saying keep an eye on something 10 days away when people have a hard time 3 days out?
ReplyDeleteThe latest data shows PNA going back to negative and EPO neutral shortly. As I said get ready for the early spring to continue. Get the pool chemicals early. This will lead to a less favorable storm track and warmer temperatures.
ReplyDeleteWOWWWWWWA, REALY???
DeleteThe Euro op shows the vortex escaping to the North Atlantic..the more reliable mean says the vortex stays in place. That set up could be a pretty good snow producer somewhere in the East. I could see a snowy period followed by a PNA spike. We'd have snow on the ground followed by your pool chemicals freezing in the garage. Wouldn't that be spectacular?!
DeleteA neutral EPO isn't a bad thing at all, just means it won't be much of a player. I saw the PNA ensembles, most members towards the long range are neutral/weakly negative. Keep in mind that only slightly above/below the middle line still qualifies as neutral. Besides, these are just two pieces in a very complex puzzle. Remember that our two-week cold spell not long ago occurred with a +NAO and a neutral AO, which one would think wouldn't favor cold here. And during the height of our thaw the NAO was actually NEGATIVE. It's not always about the teleconnection indices, one also needs to follow the progression of upper level features. At this point we appear in line for a lessening of the cold late next week, followed by a reinforcing shot afterwards. The frigid pattern won't be sustained, but we won't be experiencing any extended thaw for the rest of the month. So put those pool chemicals away before you hurt yourself, Troll Anon.
DeleteInteresting tidbit from CPC regarding the 8-14 day period:
ReplyDelete"A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT INCREASE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS."
Along with this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Granted this outlook has below average confidence (2 out of 5), so take it with a grain of salt for now.
The 00z GFS looks like it was initiated in anonymous's basement.
ReplyDeleteIt only starts to look bad towards the very end, at a range not even worth considering on an operational model. The other parts aren't too bad, though it kind of bugs me how towards day 9 of that run we finally get a stronger system in the upcoming cold regime...and it brings a surge of above freezing air and rain -_- fortunately it's still at enough of a distance where it will change a lot, plus there would be a period of snow as the airmass cools again. I will bitterly shake my fist at the forces of cruel irony if we somehow get more rain than snow in this pattern. I highly, highly doubt that will happen, but with our luck lately it wouldn't be totally shocking. lol
DeleteThe storm track looks to be South for awhile so areas in the South will have snow on the ground where our ground will be bare. We are almost 2 ft below normal and while we will see nickle and dime type snow it looks to be very minimal at best. We will definately get very cold, but snow will be minimal especially away from the lakes. We will see.
ReplyDeleteIt alos looks like the series if clippers that will affect us over the next days will pass North of us leaving us with very little. The GFS also shows next weeks storm track well West of us. Again we will see. This, of course, will not be good for snow.
ReplyDeleteThere is nothing worthwhile people as fsr as snow coming so just stop and get ready for spring as Ihave stated. Models show nothing remember 7-10 days ago arctic blast this weekend? It is going to be 40 on Saturday? All the models show no significant storms and it will be just like last winter as I have said. Well below snow totals for season and it will be more rain. Macedon you get it now get your pals on here to understand.
ReplyDeleteAnd 14 on Wednesday.. spring keeps getting pushed back.
DeleteHope I was looking at the right Euro run. It's a bit different than the GFS.. hands off the +PNA to an east based -NAO and keeps us cold. Which one has the right idea?
ReplyDeleteThat one day foray into the 40's has been in the forecast for several days, if you're just noticing it now you're a bit late to the game. I'll get ready for spring when there is actual indication of its arrival. Which, once again, there isn't. At all. I think a few of next week's clippers will surprise us with more than just minimal snow. Still no big stuff, but NOT snowless.
ReplyDeleteNot an expert just wondering about that clipper system that comes through Sunday. Will that create winds over the lake from WNW direction? If that is the case would that support good LES for the areas north of the Thruway? I do believe the snow ratios will be real high with the LES. Just wondering what the experts on the blog think.
ReplyDelete