It looks like winter wants to stick around for a while, at least in the temperature department. Both long range models (GFS & EURO) really want to hang onto the unseasonably cold temperatures through the end of the month. Both models have quick little "warm-ups" as surges of warmer air get drawn into the Northeast with a few storm systems. GFS is more aggressive drawing the warmer air in, but even so, that warmer air is just marginal for a rain/snow mix. That being said, those storms are a week away, and plenty can change then. I guess the point of this blog is just to emphasize the fact that winter IS here for a while, now we just need to get some snow to go along with the temps.
The clipper on Sunday looks like it'll give us a fresh few inches. In terms of lake effect, winds are awfully strong at the start of it, which would cut back on residence time over the lake, and the fetch is shorter, so lake enhancement may not be all that great, but it'll help at least a little.