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Wednesday, January 9

Damp, Mild End to this Week





Written by John DiPasquale:

Today will be windy, & milder, but the gusty winds of over 40 at times will make it feel more like the 20s & 30s this afternoon & early evening, despite 40 something degree readings.  After a quiet night tonight & day Thursday, it will turn kind of soggy, but milder still on Friday with highs climbing to near 50!  The weekend will remain mild, if not even milder with highs in the 50s & dry Saturday, but probably turning damp on Sunday.  A cold front will probably makes it's way through Sunday night/early Monday & cool us down significantly during the day Monday into Tuesday.  There may be a bit of rain ending as snow Monday/Monday night, & then we'll see about another storm possibly developing down south on stationary front for the middle of next week?  If this happens could be significant snow for us.  That's a BIG IF, though.  Stay tuned.  Either way, it looks like a much colder more typical weather pattern settles in during the next week. 

Have a great rest of your Wednesday WNY!


40 comments:

  1. "then we'll see about another storm possibly developing down south on stationary front for the middle of next week? If this happens could be significant snow for us"

    That would be the 16th-17th deal. IF it happens..hopefully there will be more precip on the cold side of the boundary than has been modeled. A significant snow would brighten the moods of people who like that type of thing.

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  2. I am not sure what John is seeing in regards to that stationary front middle of next week? There is not much precipitation associated with that front. This is twice now that John is throwing out possibilities for snowfall that are not even there. He did a post last week about LES this past weekend to keep an eye on it? It is starting to get concerning that he just throws stuff out there and says BIG IFs.

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  3. Why is that concerning? What is wrong with a little speculation my friend? I am glad he provided an update and now we can monitor if his "light" prediction pans out. No harm, no foul in my book.

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  4. "Significant snow" a "light" prediction?

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  5. Ok, will everyone feel better if Scott says 3 ft. of snow, with blizzard conditions for days next week, followed by more big storms, and no thaw until April.

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  6. I was thinking that was what this blog was for? Behind the scenes talk and looking for potential weather. I mean, we can get the consevative forecast at 20 different point and click forecasts and on air almost around the clock. I always figured this place as a loosen the ties and lean back with your feet on the desk type deal. No?

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  7. Light as in a light vs. hard prediction. Not snow. Maybe I should have used the word loose. Hopefully that "enLIGHTens" you.

    Too many negative Nancy(s) on here...

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  8. I agree Caledonia. I remember Scott saying last year that he was going to stop commenting on events until at most 4 days out and I think that has to do with him getting crucified on the blog for not being perfect, but that should be what this blog is for - behind the scenes speculation and looking ahead towards the possibilities of what might be in store for us. We aren't forecasting here, and news 8 shouldn't be bound to forecasting either.

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  9. Caution: soapbox moment incoming...

    People ought to stop crucifying meteorologists for missing a forecast. Meteorology is a difficult and inexact science, it would be asking too much for our humble weather folk to nail a forecast all of the time, especially from 4 days out. Sure, they should at least end up pretty close and they should all be held to a reasonably high standard, but sometimes things happen that can't be foreseen that demolish a forecast. I remember a storm from a few years ago that was supposed to nail the southern tier counties with the highest snow totals, but it took an unexpected jog north and nailed us instead. Conversely, back in early 2011 there was a storm that was projected to give us a foot or more of snow and we ended up with a good bit less than a foot. Once again, factors that were nearly impossible to nail down messed up the forecast. Neither of these forecasts were terribly far off either, just enough to bring the peanut gallery out of hiding. I just feel like some segments of the general population believe that a forecast is as simple as drawing some neat graphics and putting them on a green screen, and that occasionally blowing a forecast is a sign of incompetence. And then as if our humble weather folk don't feel bad enough about missing a forecast, the peanut gallery berates them and makes them feel worse. As if any schmo from Accounting could do it better. Bottom line: people need to stop expecting meteorologists to be perfect, and they need to stop pretending they can do someone else's job better.

    soapbox moment over

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  10. This is a blog to discuss weather. Anyone that calls out the mets that is not one themselves is just being a troll. I am pretty sure they know more than you and probably look at other factors that you have no idea about. Sometimes I wonder why certain people are on here.....I know I like to look forward to possibilities with our weather!!!!

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  11. Lets talk weather instead of arguing. Anyone see anything interesting next week or after as far as storm potential based on most recent models?

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  12. I think Scott and the crew end up being accurate for the specifics of a storm when it gets to be a day or two out. That's what is most important and the only time it is posible to give specific numbers.
    Ray from Brockport

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  13. Once again as stated before the current data supports no big storms or cold air in the next 10 days. Please get ready for that early spring that I have been predicting and getting butchered on here for making those predictions. Sorry as people have said this is a blog to discuss weather and make predictions about what may or may not be coming. It just seems that I get called names because I give facts about spring coming early and do not play to all the snow lovers. Is this blog just for snow/cold lovers or all weather? Get your sandels and shades out because the pattern is not changing!

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    1. can you name one piece of supporting evidence to prove your point please? "current data" tells me nothing. Yes for the most part we are snow/cold lovers during winter months. Maybe there is a spring blog on whec.com or 13wham.com....check it out they might welcome your views on warm weather there. here we will hold a candle to anything that resembles winter weather, because this is winter. if we didn't like the cold we would move to a warmer climate. thank you, have a good day anonymous (still no name huh?)

      Delete
    2. "Sorry as people have said this is a blog to discuss weather and make predictions about what may or may not be coming."

      Exactly. What you are doing is not that. What you are doing is stating an unsupported prediction as fact, and demanding that people get with your program. For example:

      "I give facts about spring coming early"

      Combined with:

      "Please get ready for that early spring that I have been predicting"

      It's almost like you can't stand the fact that people here disagree with your preferences. We disagree with yours too, but that isn't why we berate you. We berate you because you parade around like a know-it-all declaring spring to be here when it clearly isn't. Those who argue that cold is coming have given plenty of supporting evidence. You have given zero evidence to the contrary. This isn't about "playing to all the snow lovers" it's about stating the most likely outcome based on data.

      Speculation, even with limited evidence, is just fine. Spitting in the face of hard evidence like you're God himself is not.

      Delete
    3. FACT: The first day of spring is March 20th. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure mother nature can't change the date. Enough with the "early spring" stuff.
      Jay from Greece

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  14. The point is Anonymous you can give you opinions without being arrogant and cocky and don’t need to keep repeating them over and over. I’m not a big weather expert but enjoy the discussions on the blog except when people try to push everyone else’s buttons.
    Ray

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  15. Might want to check how current your data is anonymous. I'm not seeing endless spring in it at all. Could be quite the opposite actually... and not very long from now.

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  16. When will the sun be back? Will the lake effect machine EVER shut down? Will spring EVER come?!!! ROCwhine

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  17. Lo and behold, still no changes in the long range forecast. A burst of very cold air is on tap for later next week, followed by some moderation to a seasonably cold air mass. It should remain cold enough to snow for at least several days starting with next week's cold blast, although attempting to pinpoint individual features at this range is an exercise in futility. The initial cold blast is due to a compact polar vortex moving south into Canada, and while it's there any storm activity should remain well to our south. Lake effect might be a different story, but as with individual features it is an exercise in futility to make that call. That PV will likely be transient, which will result in the aforementioned moderation to seasonably cold, and COULD result in a more favorable storm track. Of course we would actually need a storm to develop for that to be worth our while. All of the major models and ensembles support this general idea, with exact timing and exact PV placement still up in the air.

    I hope Troll Anon has his crow ready.

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  18. Buf NWS forecast discussion says, much colder however slightly above average for early-mid next week. Then a better than 50% chance of colder than normal beginning at the end of next week.

    Gonna enjoy the weather today and beautiful saturday, and then look forward to the resumption of winter next week.

    Andy

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  19. Just to throw it out there.. both major model ensembles forecast the MJO to go into phase 7 around Wednesday or Thursday..loop back into phase 6 for a few days and then continue back around into phase 7. If it is having any influence on the pattern at all I think it would support, pretty much, what anonymous at 1:19 has laid out.

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  20. On the duchebag scale, the anon from 1222 PM is a category 5. Basically what that means is, his idiocy and lack of insight are at monumental/destructive levels and may be of harm to himself and/or his (or her) family.

    Love the blog!

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  21. Can someone explain what MJO is and what the different phases mean please? Thanks :)

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    1. Ok, here goes. First off I'm not a weather enthusiast or even a hobbyist. I only follow the weather in winter because I want snow! So my knowledge of weather in general is VERY limited. I wish I knew how to post links as this would be much easier to visualize if I did.

      Very quick and simple:

      Madden–Julian oscillation ( MJO ) is a measure of convection in the tropics. It circumnavigates around the globe along the equator. As it does so it sends out (Rossby) waves. These waves enhance the northern jet. I think of it as a bubble or blob that pushes the jet up. It causes a ridge in the jet stream which changes positions of ridges and troughs throughout the rest of the stream.

      The phases are simply areas on the globe. When the MJO is in phase 2 and 3, for example, it means it's in the Indian ocean. Phase 8 and 1 is Western Hemisphere and Africa, 6 and 7 is the Western Pacific, etc. So when the position of the Jet stream is changed in one location it changes it around the globe. When the MJO is in the Western Pacific ( phase 6 )for example, it tends to cause a ridge ( and warmth) in the Eastern US. It changes it in other places too..just figured we are interested in the Eastern US.

      Now this doesn't always work. Other factors can override the MJO, especially when it is weak. A strong Nino or Nina can also make it nearly useless. But in a neutral ENSO year, with a strong MJO signal, it can be almost like magic as far as predicting warm and cold periods. I've found out that 98% of the time you still need to know meteorology though. LOL.

      I'm a complete rookie in all things weather. If I messed any of that up or over simplified anything, someone, please let me know. Excuse poor grammar, spelling and punctuation too. I can try explaining a different way if that made no sense.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Caledonia! You explained it very well! I think I get it :) I just want snow too!!!

      Delete
  22. I've learned more about the MJO in the last week then I ever planned on. I still don't know what the heck I'm talking about for the most part though. When I get home I will ATTEMPT to pass on the little I know if someone hasn't already. For now, in January, we want to be in phase 8, 1 or 2 for a better chance of cold in the East. If I'm remembering the charts on the NOAA site correctly.

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  23. Hey bloggers it's Scott. It's been a while because there's been nothing to talk about. Now there is. Looking at a major pattern change late next week and the following week with a polar vortex over Hudson Bay feeding colder air into Northeast. I'm expecting temperatures in the teens and 20s Thursday and Friday of next week with reinforcing cold afterward. Looks like another 7-14 day period of cold and some snow coming again. Some have mentioned the possibility of snow next week. There will be a ripple of low pressure riding to our East along the stalled front Tuesday night. That could produce a period of snow around here but to know how much is way too soon to speculate.

    Scott

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  24. Well there's the man of facts and not fiction. Looking forward to replenishing our snow :-)

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  25. Thank you Scott for finally shedding some light on the otherwise negativity throughout this blog! I look forward to more posts as the weather starts to take a turn for the better!

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  26. When's the last time we had a clipper? Seems like 15 years ago.

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  27. It looks like it is going to get cold, but not alot of chances for snow over the next several weeks. Do you guys agree?

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  28. Bring on the cold. The colder the better. Way to early to rule out snow chances over 1 week out. I am just thankfull it looks more like below average temps are coming again. The snow will come dont worry.

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  29. Agree with Hamlin, way too early to rule out snow chances beyond a week. While the transient PV is nearby late next week the storm track will be far away from us, but after that is anyone's guess. And there could still be lake effect while the PV is near.

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  30. Any updates about possible new storms from the current data?

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  31. Looks quiet for the next 10 days people want to blow up the cold but it will be normal temps starting next Wednesday. Maybe LES opportunities but no storms on the horizon. Warm, warm the next few days and spring is closer than all on here want to think.

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    Replies
    1. Meteorological spring begins on March 1st, spring is exactly as close as we all think. Way to be wrong already on the "quiet" thing, as the next 3 days look pretty active with rain today and Sunday. Besides, you kind of defeated your own argument by saying there could be lake effect opportunities within the 10 day period. And the passage of an arctic front next Thursday qualifies as "activity." You don't need snowstorms to have an active pattern, and even so 10 days is an awfully long time range to try and predict them. For all we know, the models/ensembles may be overestimating the extent of the cold (the result of which would be storm track suppression), which they've already done once this season. This is a BIG MAYBE, this is NOT wishful thinking on my part as I still think the PV will push the storm track too far south for a short time.

      Delete
  32. Things are definitely pointing to temps becoming more average and then colder as we progress through the rest of January and most of us realize that. I'm excited. I'm climbing a handful of mountains in the adks in early February and the colder (and snowier) it is the more excited I will be.

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  33. Here is a graph showing just how pronounced the sudden stratospheric warming has been:

    http://i45.tinypic.com/17fpfs.gif

    In case the link doesn't work, it shows the temperature in the polar stratosphere rising from near record cold temps to near record high temps in a span of less than two weeks, and still rising. I can only wonder how often a SSW of this magnitude occurs. I'm guessing once per decade on average, if that. In any event, it quickly becomes apparent from viewing that graph why some people have been freaking out about a massively cold pattern possibly setting in, knowing that even a mild SSW can lead to arctic chill moving to the mid-latitudes. That said, the brunt of the impact from this SSW should be in Eurasia, but our side of the globe should still feel significant impacts.

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