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Wednesday, January 23

Little More Lake Snow for Some...

Written by John DiPasquale:

Hi all!  Lake snows will mainly north near the lake shore this afternoon into this evening with an additional 1 to 3" near the lake, while little, if any, will fall for the majority of us.  However, once a disturbance & surface low move by later tonight, the winds will become more northerly & pick up a bit, which should push the lake snow a little further south late tonight into Thursday morning.  With that said, I still believe the best chance of getting an additional 2 to 6" or even a bit more tonight into Thursday morning will be up north around 104, I believe there will be a slightly better chance for measurable snow to reach more of Monroe County, including the city.  We'll see...but the data is hinting at this too.  We all know how fickle lake snow can be with any little perturbation in atmosphere causing lake snows either to break up, &/or get hung up & not move as far south as expected like last night into this morning.  Either way, lake snows will come to an end during the day Thursday, especially in the afternoon as drier air builds in with high pressure.

A little general snow will likely fall for all later Friday into Friday night, but it does not look like a big deal.  Maybe some minor accumulations from it.  A little lake snow may follow for Saturday, before a quiet, slightly milder Sunday settles in.  Changes for next week.  Stay tuned.     

61 comments:

  1. Yes John big changes next week warm weather. Spring is here!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Define spring.

      Guidance is for arctic return after some moderation next week.

      Delete
  2. Still strong agreement amongst the ensembles on a return to winter after next week's temporary warmup. Even the NAEFS, which has been reluctant to show much cold in the lower 48 throughout the winter is spitting out cold anomalies across the Great Lakes starting February 1st. It looks at this point like the next cold blast will have somewhat more potential for storminess as well. So for whoever is looking forward to the short warmup next week...enjoy it while it lasts.

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  3. I do not really care about the cold. Will we receive any snow????? Cold is pointless without snow.

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  4. Not sure what you are looking at? Next week 40s and mid 40s for three days. Just not sure why people can not see or welcome spring is coming and is going to stay. We will not get to 55 inches of snow for the year. Winter snow mongers please understand it is over can we just agree to that? People last week were throwing out below zero temperatures and big lake effect snows and come on was that the case? So now predictions are being made about Febreuary 1st and beyond. How come the winter lovers can see the futre but I say spring is coming and I am a troll? Please advise.

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    Replies
    1. Because you have claimed spring is here and it's 11 degrees out? Not sure how difficult that actually is to reason out.

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    2. Because you aren't proving anything you say, you're just shouting the same thing over and over. There is substantial evidence that winter will make a bold return starting February 1st, there is none whatsoever that spring is coming soon and will stay. Point us to something reliable that says otherwise and maybe we'll take you more seriously.

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  5. If you believe the MJO voodoo it is projected to reach phase 8 and will probably continue on past that. We have several wintry phases to get through if it continues. I would think that would take a good chunk of February. Single digits and bare ground isn't enjoyable to me at all...hopefully if we stay cold some snow will fall.

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  6. Anyone seeing that mini vortex over the lake heading southeast? Looks like some decent snows coming tonight...

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    Replies
    1. Yeah it looks like Hamlin is getting hooked up again. We'll see how it develops.

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    2. hey scott and weather team, great job ,but i notice you guys mostly forcast rochester and points east. any way you can do some west areas ? like genesee, wyoming,orleans county. keep up the good work.

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  7. looking forward to it in Hilton. It was amazing today. We got 10inches last night, and about 2 miles south of my house had 2 or 3 inches at best, amazing...

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  8. Already down to 6 degrees at the airport. If the sky remains as is I think we'll make a run at 0.

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  9. Caledonia may be on to something with the MJO! And both ensembles keep the warmer air in for two days at most... So for those who will not give up on spring miraculously coming in the beginning of Feb. for the first time in the history of planet Earth, you can let it go now!

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    Replies
    1. There's more than two ensembles...

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  10. Not sure if you saw my earlier analysis, but I figured I'd share it again.

    Statistically speaking, as I look at winters since 1943-- in years where we've had a snow deficit with less than 35" Nov-Jan like this year, we have a better than 3:1 chance of having more snow in Feb & Mar than we had Nov-Jan. On average during those years about 48% more snow in Feb & March than fell Nov-Jan. So basically this tells me that mother nature tries to make up the difference. The downside is that April was also snowier than average with about 90% more snow than average in these years... NOT A FAN OF APRIL SNOW.

    Lots of cold air coming after the short moderation next week, so odds are good for some decent snows.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Hopefully we aren't in a global pattern like we were during the late 1940's into the mid 1950's. The PDO trend is a close match and we have drought conditions that are similar to what we saw in the 1950's in the US. Wasn't exactly our most epic stretch of snowy winters. In fact looking at some of the snowfall a couple of those years makes me cry even now.

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    2. We can hope for a year like 1967. 29 inches of snow through January followed by 4.5 feet in February and March. "snow mongers" must have thought that year was a lost cause.

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    3. Yeah I know what you mean about the 40's.

      The thing I thought was interesting is that years with a snow deficit in early winter tended to be balanced with more snow in the last two months in 15 out of those 19 years.

      Andy

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  11. Rochester- 20 inches below normal in snowfall
    Buffalo - Almost 30 inches below normal in snowfall.
    Syracuse - Almost 40 inches below normal in snowfall.

    The snow drough continues with no major snows expected this week or next week the drough will intensify.

    Where are the storms???????? We had 1 storm in Decemeber and January we have seen zippo storms.

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  12. Currently -3 F here. This has been one chilly spring so far.

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  13. Some of my favorite weather is happening right now. Cold with light winds and moderate snow. Ground is finally white again in Caledonia.

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  14. My snowmobile sold last night and I don't even feel bad about it. We have maybe a couple of inches on the ground with a warm up next week. I will still route for the snow as I bought some commercial grade snow tubes for my kids, at least we can use those with only a few inches of snow, and MUCH cheaper entertainment.

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  15. Hold on signs of spring back again next week and following weeks. Spring early you have to love Rochester. Models showing nothing in the future.

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  16. Funny we are getting the snow in the city area that was predicted the other night. Hard to predict that lake effect.

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  17. Loving the beautiful snow!!! Sorry for the crappy commute this morning tho!!

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  18. It looks like we are going to get into another pattern where storms go to our west, we warm up and then cool down and then warmp up and then cool down. Not good for snow. If that pattern holds through Feb we are looking at another dismal snow season for us at 50-60 inches. Next week we will get into the 40's for at least 3 days and the little snow we have now will be all but gone with no BIG storms in sight. I really hope that changes but it does not look good at all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Read below: the warmup looks shorter than it did yesterday. It was three days, now it's down to two maybe two and a half. No telling if we'll get any big storms in the long range, but in the meantime cheer up, it's a beautiful nippy winter day :)

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    2. The past matters less than the future and statistically we have a nearly 4:1 chance that we will have more snow in Feb and Mar than we had Nov-Jan. For instance in 1967 we had 43" in Feb and Mar and just 30" in Nov-Jan.

      Andy

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    3. I think the last 7 days or so shows that consistent cold doesn't do much good for winter storms either. I'll take my chances with a more variable pattern. I have a sneaking suspicion us winter fans will be put out of our misery after mid month anyway.

      Delete
  19. Also, we did not get any snow as predicted last night.

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  20. The brief warm intrusion next week now looks a day shorter than it previously did, with the cold air returning more quickly on most guidance. Despite the teleconnections not being ideal, the MJO moving into Phase 8 and eventually Phase 1 supports a new cold pattern arriving soon after this one retreats. I think it will be less dry than this pattern as well, though there's no telling exactly what kind of storm activity we'll get or if we'll get any significant events.

    I got to walk through beautiful fluffy flakes this morning, made me forget how cold it was. Then I got to see snow falling amidst some blue sky...such is the nature of our weird and wonderful climate.

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  21. Has been snowing lightly in NE Fairport all day. Very pretty. The cold is great and the ski resorts have been making tons of snow.

    Andy

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  22. Light snow in the metro all day and very pretty :) nada on the radar.

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  23. The colder pattern setting up for early February still doesn't look as cold as the current one. That bodes much better for snow chances than the current pattern.

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  24. Nothing bodes well for the rest of the winter. Early spring is coming so get ready and enjoy. We may and I repeat may not get 50 inches of snow this winter. There is nothing in sight. Anything big storm wise usually pops up 10 to 14 days ahead if it verifies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is it fun sitting there all day fishing for responses? Why do your parents still allow you access to the Internet?

      I'll bite your lure: spring is not coming any time soon. Deal with it.

      Delete
  25. I vote not to even acknowledge the existence of "boner for spring", "pigs in space" or just "intertroll". Anyways, feels like the dead of winter, that is for sure. Have about 4" of new fluff on the NW side of the city. Nice bonus!!

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  26. Latest Euro doesn't have much of a warm up at all, with a prime set up for significant lake snows mid to late next week... Time will tell though!

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  27. It has now stopped snowing in Hamlin this afternoon, however the wind has picked up, I will be plowing again shortly. I would say we got 18-24 inches on the north end of town. It is hard to tell it settles and blows away very quickly. Very winter like. BRING ON THE NEXT ROUND next week, the more snow the better.

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  28. Hamlin - you guys were the winner in the stretch. Conditions favored NW Monroe Co., with a remarkably consistent connection with the Upper Lakes.

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  29. Does Hamlin love the snow or the OT money more

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  30. Really Weatherguy because Scott's forecast had us in the 50s next week with no mention of lake effect snowzzzzzzzzzz hum? Spring is here face it and look at next weeks forecast. Snow mongers keep on believing. Maybe you will get lucky like Hamlin. We will set a record for the least amount of snow for a winter.

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    Replies
    1. So are you saying just no snow or continuous spring like temps from here on out?

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    2. The record for least amount of snow in a ROC winter is 29.2 inches. We are currently at 30.2, so you're already wrong there.

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/ROC_top10.htm
      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=buf (go to each month's records NOV-JAN and add the monthly snow totals)

      There is no mention of lake effect in Scott's forecast because the risk (if any) would occur beyond the 7 day forecast period. I'm looking at next week's forecast, and it shows what we've all been preaching for days...a warmup lasting for a few days followed by a return to winter. The trend in guidance has been towards a shorter and less robust warmup as well. So keep hanging on to those dreams of spring if you want, because that's all they are right now: dreams.

      Delete
  31. The Euro is looking much more realistic in terms of what we have come to expect from the current pattern with regards to warmups. I suspect the GFS will begin to follow suit.

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  32. How many times have I said it warm up next week with above normal temps after and minimal snow. An early spring can it be any clearer?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Apparently when it warms up for a few days spring has officially arrived.

      Delete
  33. I like the snow much more than the OT Money. Winter and the snow is what got me to attend Brockport college to study Meteorology. Senior seminar anxiety lead me eventually to the highway department. I get paid to "Play" in the snow. I love everything about snow, the deeper the better.

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  34. Had to ask Hamlin not to be a jerk but was just wondering. Thanks for the answer.

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  35. No problem Anonymous, I will talk more snow and less OT. I Agree with weatherguy. More lake effect next Thursday and beyond. 0z GFS have stronger storm up the coast with moderate snow for all, followed by cold and lake effect. Long ways away but cold is here with just 3 days above normal temps. Don't give up on winter yet everyone will get there snow eventually.

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  36. When you guys talk models what site do you visit to see the future temps...I have gone to unisys.com and seen some gfs models and can tell the storms...but how do you know about warm and cold periods?

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  37. Gilbert, here are three sites you can use (the first and second are my personal favorites):

    1.)http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
    2.) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
    3.) http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

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  38. Latest model runs show nothing with storms. It is clear that we are heading to spring even though many on here want to doubt that. We are only 4 weeks left with any possible storms because all indications are March will be really warm. Enjoy the warm-up starting today and through all of next week. I myself may start to get out the patio furniture out this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All of next week you say...

      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ003

      "Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s."

      I didn't know the week ended on Wednesday.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      "LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE FIRST WEEK IN FEBRUARY AS THE PATTERN RELOADS AND A DEEP TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS GREATER CERTAINTY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN FEBRUARY...AND
      DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ FORECAST FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE MJO ORBITING CLOSER TO PHASE 8 ON THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT BY DAY 15. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS MJO POSITION SUPPORTS A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES."

      No storms on the models you say...

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

      March will be really warm you say...

      http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd4.gif

      Granted these particular models aren't terribly accurate at the given ranges (none of them are), but you see my point. Now put the patio furniture away son.

      Delete
    2. Crap I linked to May by mistake. March actually does look warm on the CFS. Then again, December looked like a freezer on that very same model from more than a month out, so my point still stands.

      Delete
  39. Well my friend the other Anonymous only time will tell. You can keep putting all your sites on here that justify what you think may happen. But, I know spring is here next week and will be early. We will not get one more significant snow storm the rest of this winter. You had one right after Christmas and that wll be it just like last winter. As I have said this winter when it is over shapes up very similar to last years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's already nothing like last year. We didn't have a cold stretch like this one at all last season. You completely missed the point of those links (other than the CFS link, I posted the wrong month by mistake), which was to demonstrate that you have no clue what you're talking about not to show what I think will happen. At least I bothered to post some links, you're just sitting here shouting the same thing 500 times a day with no supporting evidence whatsoever. By the way, three straight runs of the Euro model now show our little warmup ending pretty rapidly, just a few days of mild air before winter returns. This is what the model shows, not necessarily what I think will happen.

      Oh wait I forgot, you're just a troll and I shouldn't be responding to you. Carry on...

      Delete
  40. I think we are on the verge of the next ice age......Snow & cold to carry on till mid May....Keep the sleds, shovels and snowmobiles handy!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now that's just overkill XD

      Delete

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