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Friday, January 11

Spring this Weekend then Back to Winter

 Written by John DiPasquale:

After possible record breaking warmth this weekend, January will return for next week, as the jet stream drops to the south.  The Arctic chill will attempt to get in here briefly late Wednesday into Thursday, before possibly making another, more aggressive attempt the following week.  Still a lot up in the air, but one thing seems certain...winter will be back to stay for some time for the most part & it may come in harder than it as in a long while with the cold.  With that said, enjoy the spring like temps this weekend!  Record Saturday is 57 set back in 1995, with a good chance of breaking it, especially if some sun comes out, which looks pretty likely for the afternoon.  Sunday's 67 degree record will likely stand, but cannot rule out low 60s with some rain just out ahead of season changer to the west.  Stay tuned, & have a great weekend.

       

47 comments:

  1. Posted this in the last thread:

    Here is a graph showing just how pronounced the sudden stratospheric warming has been:

    http://i45.tinypic.com/17fpfs.gif

    In case the link doesn't work, it shows the temperature in the polar stratosphere rising from near record cold temps to near record high temps in a span of less than two weeks, and still rising. I can only wonder how often a SSW of this magnitude occurs. I'm guessing once per decade on average, if that. In any event, it quickly becomes apparent from viewing that graph why some people have been freaking out about a massively cold pattern possibly setting in, knowing that even a mild SSW can lead to arctic chill moving to the mid-latitudes. That said, the brunt of the impact from this SSW should be in Eurasia from what I've been seeing, but our side of the globe should still feel significant impacts.

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  2. What does your post mean anon 1:44? Are you saying severe cold is likely to come to Rochester or are you talking about the unusual warmth we are getting this weekend?

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    1. There hasn't been any talk about severe cold coming to Rochester, as the biggest cold anomalies will probably be in the Eastern Hemisphere, but we should still receive some very cold air at times over the next few weeks. I was just pointing out how much the polar stratosphere has warmed up in a short span, which is why there's been so much talk about a big time arctic outbreak somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere considering these two things are linked.

      Basically this: severe cold is unlikely for us, pretty darn cold (i.e. highs in the 20's and lows in the teens/single digits) is quite likely after mid-week next week MOST of the time. As John said, arctic air will try to make it here for a brief time next week, with a more pronounced chill possibly moving in afterwards, with the only near certainty being that winter will stick around for some time.

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  3. So you are saying the opposite of the troll that winter is here to stay for awhile. Do you think after next week the following weeks could lead to the severe cold with temps below zero at all? Is there any chance for lake effect snow or snow storms with this cold?

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    1. There is always the chance for lake effect with any cold outbreak, but it's too early for anyone to make that call. Non lake effect storms depend on how pronounced the cold is. If the cold push is too strong, the jet stream moves too far south for us to get a storm. Clipper type systems are more likely with a pronounced outbreak, but those are fast moving and devoid of much moisture (though they can occasionally get a boost from the Great Lakes). I don't know about any temps below zero, if they do happen it would only be for a day or two and probably closer to the end of the month, IF (big IF) they happen at all.

      This is all just my amateur thinking and what I can glean from other sources. I'd wait for Scott/Stacey to chime in before committing to any idea at this point (I know John has already chimed in but it's better to see input from more than one expert).

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  4. Get ready for winter the "DONKEY" saw his shadow yesterday. Sorry Anonymous, after this weekend winter is here for a while. Very cold air will be here by the following weekend into the week. That forecast is music to my ears.

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  5. 0z GFS wants to bring the pipe bursting, snot freezing cold right on top of my house around the 22nd.

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  6. I love the snow...but hate the cold that comes with it. I guess sometimes you need to take the good with the bad. Does anyone actually know how long the cold will last. Here is what I am saying. We are about 3 weeks from Groundhog Day...from there we have 6 weeks of Winter...that only gives us about 2 more months of winter...so I say we enjoy what we have and what Old Man Winter wants to give us. Then we enjoy a Spring unlike last year where we had the 80 degrees in March and then killed all the apples in April.

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  7. I am with you Gil. I love snow but hate bitter cold. All it means is higher heating bills. I would rather have seasonable cold with a lot of snow. If it gets too cold the storm track will be too far south and lake effect will be limited due to the dry air.

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  8. Macedon,

    We got drilled by Lake Effect Snow in Jan 2004. It was very cold that month. We should watch these clippers later next week, they can give us a good shot of snow and some LES. I think this will be a snowy next few weeks around here.

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  9. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but as it get's colder, there's less moisture, but you can still get 10 inches of fluffy light snow, whereas if it's 30 degrees you need much more moisture to get 10 inches. I think some big lake effect storms have happened off of lake ontario where the lake almost never freezes, because of the difference in air and water temps. I agree that the main storm track is usually too far south, but depending on where you are, a good dumping of lake effect, wth crazy hourly rates can happen, although more in the snowbelts than in Rochester metro. Of course with the cold, there's very little loss of snowcover, and it just keeps piling up. Lighter snow is also easier on my snowblower and aching back, plus I'd assume the snow plowers like it as it's much easier to move.

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  10. Hello by the way people latest data shows cold not going to be really that cold as all the snow and cold mongers been saying. Not much in the way of snow either. It all keeps getting pushed back. As I have been saying sit back and enjoy the early spring starting today.

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    1. So far the only thing that has been pushed back is your claim that it was going to feel like May for the next 3 months.

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  11. What data, green grass showing in my yard. The geese swimming in Lake Ontario. Maybe it is the type of birds on the feeders, that you use as your data. What data do you use? Winter is coming next week, and then will see where spring is.

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  12. These operational models have been downright absurd with the cold after next week. -20C 850 temps as far south as the Carolinas, which for them would translate to lows in the teens. For us it would mean lows near/below zero. That said, it's likely overdone by a country mile, but I'd say at least a brief period with lows near the single digits within the rather cold regime is a pretty safe bet at this point. I'd pay money to see TrollAnon wander out into that while wearing flip-flops, Bermuda shorts and his "Spring Fever" t-shirt.

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  13. Latest Euro shows much warmer and realistic temperatures as compared GFS that is just crazy.There is your data Hamlin.

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    1. We must not be looking at the same Euro, because the latest one is actually colder than the GFS at times. Go to Weather Underground and see it for yourself.

      You're quickly running out of straws to grasp.

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  14. Oh really anon 3:37 so colder than GFS so basically you have below zero at times the week after next? Because that what GFS has us at times around zero or below? I say we will maybe be in teens for lows no big deal and it will be short lived and back to spring.

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  15. Those below zero temperatures show up on the GFS beyond the range of the Euro. No, I don't think we'll go below zero...as I've already stated I think the operational models (including the GFS and the Euro) are vastly overdone on the level of cold. That said, we are still on the cusp of solid wintry temperatures returning for an extended time period. Believing that spring will be here by the end of this month is the textbook definition of "wishful thinking."

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    1. Edit: Believing that spring will be BACK here by the end of the month is the textbook definition of "wishful thinking." (since today and tomorrow are taken straight out of early May)

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  16. Official high today was 58 degrees, breaking the old daily record of 57. Kind of amazing how long we've gone without a record low, yet it seems like a record high is broken every few weeks.

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    1. Meanwhile Russia is having its harshest winter in 70 years. China has 1000 ships stranded in ice....It's crazy!

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  17. You are right anon and get used to it with more warm temperatures coming as winter will be out early and spring/summer coming early. Glad we got our one winter snow storm out of the way early. This winter will now end up looking very similar to last years.

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    1. We've had more than one storm this season so you're already wrong there. Now take a look at this forecast:

      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ003

      That doesn't look like last season at all. So you're wrong again.

      If we do end up with an early spring it would be a few weeks early, not a few months like you are suggesting. There is absolutely zero evidence of winter ending soon, despite the delusion you've placed yourself in.

      Just keep grasping those straws...

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  18. The wood pecker at the feeder was pecking slower than normal today. It could only mean one thing, Anonymous is correct, an early spring. Winter must be done. This is going to be the coldest, snowiest spring on record.

    If you look at the Euro model you will notice the cold pinwheeling around the polar vortex. There are some very cold temps nearby the end of next week. This cold is going to push in here by the end of January. If we get some snow pack on the ground and that polar vortex sets up where the 12Z Euro has it at the end of its run. WE WILL BREAK SOME RECORD LOWS to end this January. It looks to me that it is going to be colder that it has been in many years by the end of this January. We will see.

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  19. It appears to me that it is going to be a real wintry pattern from next weekend until mid February at least. All the important factors are going negative which is good for winter lovers. But as I believe Caledonia mentioned before a real important ingrediant is happening which helps the potential for east coast storms. It is the MJO and that is precticed to go into phase 6 and 7 until mid February. That helps the east coast with the jet stream pattern. That is how I see it.

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  20. Whatever cold we do get should be somewhat dry early on, as it has continental origins which means a dearth of moisture. Any snow we get will mostly come from clippers and minor lake effect, at least early on. Towards the last week of January and going into February there should be a greater likelihood of storm activity, as the jet stream tends to amplify by that time. Plus it's hard to see any dry suppression pattern lasting longer than a week or so. Still not buying any record setting cold, but a sustained cold pattern seems very likely.

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    1. Might depend on snow cover and what the records are. That cold shot next week looks like it means business.

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    2. Or maybe not.

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  21. As I stated do not count on this cold cold outbreak. Latest run keeps pushing temps up and back. As I stated get ready for the winter being similar to last years with no pattern change and temps normal to above normal. Not much in the way with storms either expect tiny clippers. You might as well hope for the Columbus Clippers you got a better chance of snow from them.

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    1. Eveyone knows your act by now - any chance you can come up with some new material?? You are like freaking Henny Youngman - "Take my wife, please!". Just a request. I would guess you could also a use a shower (maybe freash underwear - no more using the brown in back - yellow in front rule).

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  22. Very mature Mike. I am sure you are constantly saying "Take my wife,please!" However you more than likely mean it because I am sure your wife is a cross between Tiny Tim and Elvira? Anyways sorry to stoop to your level however facts are facts just look at the data and stop getting angry at me for being realistic. There will be no MAJOR cold or MAJOR snow storms the rest of the winter, I mean spring.

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    1. Thats what I am talking about dumb-a$$ - something new. I am proud of you. And no matter what my wife looks life - at least she has a pulse - I am pretty confident yours consists of an old catchers mitt, a tube of vaseline and a roll of duct tape.

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  23. Anonymous I found the slow Woodpecker under the feeder this morning. It turns out he was pecking so slow at the feeder due to old age, NOT a sign of early spring like I had thought earlier.

    The national weather service has even mentioned the EURO and the GFS models bringing in very cold air just over 1 week from now. I think the models are looking more promising every run the opposite of what you are seeing. Even if the very cold air does not get here; which, I THINK IT WILL, the temperatures will be seasonable at least. The GFS is also consistent with the cold sticking around. The snow will come also. Maybe not a big coastal storm but clipper storms with lake effect will pile up snow. In January 2004 we did NOT get any big east coast storms; instead, we got clippers and troughs that rotated around a similar vortex setup. These small features excite the lakes and give us nice snowfalls once the arctic air is here.

    January is not going to disappoint winter weather fans. Time will tell regardless of what we think.

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  24. I see our troll is still having trouble escaping his drug-induced delusion. Speaking of massive surprises, not much is different from yesterday regarding the pattern. Return to seasonable temps starting tomorrow, followed by a stronger push of arctic air next week. Drier with clippers/minor lake effect early on in the cold pattern. There is always a decent chance that any clippers that roll through receive a boost from the Great Lakes and give us a moderate amount of snow. Sometimes these "dry cold" patterns can sneak up on us, and by the time a few weeks have gone by there is a snowpack over a foot deep. This won't be a pattern conducive for major storms, however frequent smaller systems can add up over time. The pattern COULD amplify further on down the road and allow better chances for larger storms. Whether we actually get one definitely remains to be seen.

    In the meantime, it's a balmy 65 degrees at the airport. This has two benefits (depending on who you are): it creates a gorgeous day to be outside as long as it's dry, and it warms the lakes up a little so they become better primed for lake effect/enhancement.

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  25. It also allowed me to take down my Christmas decorations without a coat. Perhaps our friend would suggest that I put up my Easter stuff...

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  26. Yes great idea Snowluver. Easter is early this year just like our spring will be. Btw models have more cold air to our NW not necessarily the Flower City. Please give up this clipped deal of bringing back the snow pack. No snow mongers on here want nickle and dime stuff they want snowageddon.

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    1. I don't know about the others here but I'm just fine with frequent clippers building the snowpack for a few weeks. I will eventually hunger for a big storm, but as long as it's snowing at all I'll be fine.

      Remember a few weeks ago when you were yapping that spring was definitely here to stay while others were saying otherwise? Yeah...

      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ003

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      "LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED INTO WEEK 2 OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE RECENT MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL RE-ORGANIZE INTO BROAD LONGWAVE FEATURES WITH A REDUCTION IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STARTING IN ABOUT 8-10 DAYS...THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH AN EQUALLY SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION."

      awkward...

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  27. speak for yourself i'll take any snow i can get.

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  28. Me too! Nickles and dimes can add up :)

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  29. Nickle and Dime snow with cold air that sounds like winter to me. I will take it gladly. Far cry from last winter I would say.

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  30. It does not look like much snow this week at all and the temps will not be very cold either as it looks right now. The clippers will go North of us. In fact, saturday looks to be in the 30's again. There are no storms in sight either.

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    1. The entire week is projected to be in the 30's. At least we have some minor snow chances in the medium range, rather than nothing at all or just rain. The northern branch of the jet will move further south next week, affording us a better chance at lake enhanced clippers which can produce moderate snows. But yes, no major storms are in sight for the time being. We need to rid ourselves of the split jet stream flow first. February tends to see more jet stream phasing and amplification, so that's the time to watch for POSSIBLY a stormier pattern setting up. There needs to be solid evidence of that occurring before anyone takes it with more than a grain of salt.

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  31. Thank you Macedon because you are being honest not making up information. Have not seen David or Weatherguy weigh in lately they know spring is here to stay.

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    1. Maybe they don't visit the blog every day? Hmm? Spring is here for exactly 12 more hours, then we go into a more seasonable pattern (still SLIGHTLY above average tempwise). Unless highs in the 30's is your idea of "spring" I'm afraid you'll be sorely disappointed. Besides all Macedon really did was reiterate what several people here have been saying for at least a week.

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  32. It stinks because we had such a great snowpack which all but disappeared in a few days. 68 degrees in January. Very very unusual to say the least. We are back to mud and brown grass again.

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    1. That will change, just give it time.

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