Winter Returns After Today
The rest of today will be windy, warm & wet with temperatures hovering within a few degrees of 60! We broke the record high for today when we hit 56 at 4am, well before the sun even came up!! The record high had stood since 1974 & 1914. Impressive to say the least, especially since it happened so early!
As you can see by looking at the graphic above, though, it will turn dramatically colder late tonight through the remainder of the week into the weekend! A strong cold front will pass through later this evening, & when it does the temps will begin to plummet & the winds will really crank up! Winds could gust to between 50 & 60 mph at times late tonight through much of Thursday! So be careful out there. There also could be some localized poor drainage flooding & small stream flooding due to the 1 to 2" of rain expected today through tonight, especially over the Finger Lakes, south & east of Rochester.
A little snow will fly at times Thursday, especially later in the day & northeast & southwest of much of the viewing area. Late Thursday night into Friday a trough will attempt to move through, & if it does there will be some widespread accumulating lake snows affecting a good chunk of the area, especially north of the Thruway.
Some additional wintry weather appears to be on tap over the weekend into the early next week with some synoptic snow & occasional lake snows too. It should add up over the next several days, & will certainly look a lot more like winter again across WNY. Lake snows will likely be heaviest north, toward the big lake, but could affect many at times depending on movements of troughs/disturbances. Stay tuned.
2 inches of rain and 60 mph winds... I might as well call the insurance agent right now.
ReplyDeleteReally? Another High Wind Warning? Are we becoming the Windy City now?
ReplyDeleteJohn, would you know where the highest winds were occur?
I was thinking the same thing! I don't remember getting these high wind warnings back in the day. All they really do is ramp up my falling tree anxiety!!
ReplyDeleteI have trees all around my house..the late night winds are the worst! Laying there in the dark waiting for a tree to fall. I lost one in the mid 90's that I didn't know about until daylight.
DeleteMaybe John might ease our fears. John any idea where the strongest winds will strike.
ReplyDeleteJust updated from the NWS:
ReplyDeleteSTRONG WINDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN FROM
AROUND 985MB 00Z TONIGHT TO 970MB 12Z TOMORROW MORNING JUST NORTH OF
VERMONT...AND THEN BELOW 960 MB BY 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC.
THIS RAPID DEEPENING...COMBINED WITH 6 TO 8 MB ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX A 50 KNOT JET AT 925 HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE
STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...ITS ASSOCIATED WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG. WE WILL UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO A
WARNING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
LIKELY IN FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
FOR OUR INLAND COUNTIES OF WYOMING...ALLEGANY...LIVINGSTON AND
ONTARIO WE WILL LEAVE A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY AS THE DEEPENING LOW
MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO ALLOW FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS HERE.
This time around the cold appears to bring with it more snow potential than last week for the majority of the region. The newest NWS discussion mentions the possibility of advisory criteria or better lake effect snow in the Rochester metro on Friday, followed by a few clipper type waves early next week, one of which could bring a widespread several inches of snowfall. So no big time storms in the near future, but it doesn't look as boring as last week was for most of us.
ReplyDeleteOur all time January record high was 81 degrees in 1945.. I can't even imagine that!
ReplyDeleteNeither can I...because it's wrong. The all time January high is 74. In fact, we didn't even get into the 40s in January 1945 let alone the 80s. Can't paste the links to back these statements up because I'm on my tablet, but you can find the data in the climate section of the NWS Buffalo site.
DeleteHome now so I can post the links:
Deletehttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_records.html
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/f6/rocJan45.html
Well I got that number off the 3:30 AFD from the NWS in Buffalo. So maybe that guy was confused?
DeleteI just looked and they corrected it on the 7:20 update. 74 degrees in 1950
DeleteYeah, I saw the same thing earlier in the discussion, and the first thing that popped into my head was "that can't be right..." so I did a little investigating. Good to see they made the correction.
DeleteThe snow is gone for now in Hamlin. The 30 residents are not woried, they have been warned days ago of its return Thursday afternoon and beyond. Maybe some snow coming for all WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT, that just sounds crazy. WE WILL SEE.
ReplyDeleteAll the snow in our development is gone. Even in the woods it's all gone.VERY unusual for this time of year. After thaws in Jan. there's usually some piles left here and there.
ReplyDeleteToo bad it's gotta come back. Oh well at least it doesn't look like prolonged misery this time, 3-5 days. NWS is even hinting at some warming by mid Feb.
Accuweather says 6 more weeks!
DeleteI read the article on Accuweather that you're referring to. It's nothing but ambiguous "could happen" statements and references to climatology. And, not surprising in the least, they made the I-95 corridor their target zone for the storms, which is precisely what they did for their winter outlook. There's a reason this company has earned the title "Hypuweather." If you want real non-hyped analysis from Accuweather, visit the expert blogs (avoid Margusity though, that guy is a chump).
DeleteI don't agree that winter will hang on longer in the Northeast either. The way the MJO is forecasted to go by late February would actually indicate a somewhat early end to winter here. A lot of long range models are also indicating the same thing. We have a 3-4 week window favorable for cold and storms after today is done, as it currently stands. That said, I'm feeling some good times for winter lovers during that window, especially towards mid month.
The way this winter has gone so far, I wouldn't rule anything out.
ReplyDeleteWe are in for some serious wind tomorrow especially mid-day...anyone have any thoughts on the weekend clipper? The models have been pretty inconsistent with timing/intensity. I'm wondering what to expect in the high peaks on Sunday when I will be doing most of my climbing. I'm thinking a few inches total with on and off snow but I'd like to hear what the blog thinks.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way we are getting 1-2 inches of rain tonight.
ReplyDeleteMets seem to really be down playing this high wind warning? Seems like 55 mph with possible higer gusts no big deal. Maybe we have become use to that becuase we have had this situation a lot. I think it may be dangerous with the ground soft and thus trees could be uprooted. Anyone else agree?
ReplyDeleteJo-Sef, you'll be seeing some snow this weekend! And the higher you are, the more moisture will get squeezed out of the clouds, and depending on the strength of the clipper(s), I would say at least 2-4", up to 6-8" if stronger. Nothing to worry about, but definitely going to make it feel like winter! Enjoy the climb!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response, that's about what I was thinking. I don't ever get worried, just excited. The only weather that is "bad" to me is constant pouring rain for an entire weekend. When we camp, we do it with a tarp underneath us and a tarp above us, and that's it - so a big snow can be troublesome but that just equals fun in my book. It should be interesting to see what kind of views we get if any with the snows...I remember I hiked Mt. Colden two days after the Valentines Day storm of 2007 - even with snowshoes there were times when I sank up to my chest in snow. The tops of trees were poking out of the snow underneath my feet. Now that was fun.
DeleteWow it's really cranking out there right now.
ReplyDeleteNo kidding. Radar signatures SW of Rochester look ominous, heading right at us too...
ReplyDeleteFrom the NWS. Rochester will miss out on this lake effect snow again.
ReplyDelete...A LES BAND WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HEART OF THIS BAND SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE ROC METRO
AREA...BUT WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE AND CAYUGA
COUNTIES TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES
AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS...THIS BAND COULD DRIFT SOUTH AND TEMPORARILY LOSE
ITS UPSTREAM CONNECTION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LOWER SNOWFALL RATES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FROM WAYNE TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. WILL THUS
UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THAT AREA TO A LES SNOW
WARNING.
Rochester was never anticipated to participate in the LES today/tonight.
DeleteIs it just me or have we been having more wind events over the past couple of years? October and March used to be the windy months now EVERY month seems to have wind storms. Any data to back up my thoughts?
ReplyDeleteIMO, outside of wind from thunderstorms, the summer months don't have the "windstorms" you are referring to. I always remember our fall/winter/early spring having occasional wind events. Are they more frequent this year, maybe.
ReplyDeleteI know one thing that is not frequent, snowstorms they are virtually few and far between. This winter is pathetic for the majority of people in Rochester.
ReplyDeleteThe latest GFS nothing but useless little Clipper after Clipper. No big storms in sight. This winter for snow fall will be worse than last years. It is amazing how bad it has been. Right now it is sunny outside. Please lets get to spring like troll anon has been saying. He may be the only one on here who is spot on?
ReplyDeleteI agree. This winter is pathetic once again. No storms, little lake effect, temperature fluctuations, nothing consistent. I believe this will be the norm for our winters from here on forward. If it is going to be like this I want Spring as well.
ReplyDeleteWe are suposed to get a few inches of FAKE fluff tomorrow. Whoopdy doo!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt really is silly to predict the future of our winters based off the past 1 1/2 winters. We have had stretches like this in the past. Also, just like eventually the Starks are always right (winter is coming), so will anon be right eventually. In the meantime, this is hardly spring. Unfortunately we just aren't getting a setup for big storms, and time is running out for that to happen - however, no one here can accurately say with confidence that it won't happen.
ReplyDeleteWow some of you are ridiculous. Since when is lake effect not real snow? What dictates that only non-lake effect should be deemed "real snow?" So we aren't seeing any big storms in the near future, who gives a flying fig honestly? We already got the one major storm we average per season, so the odds are stacked against us to receive another one. And if you want to give me some rant about being a snowmobiler, just drive an hour away to Wyoming County and shred the significant lake effect they're supposed to get. Heck even our neck of the woods shouldn't fare too badly, a decent amount of "fake snow" combined with snow from clippers should add up decently. "This winter for snow fall will be worse than last years." that's an utterly ridiculous statement to make especially considering that we're ahead of last season's pace by nearly a foot and a half, with only 25 inches to go to match last season and still over a month to go before we dive headlong into spring. Not making any predictions, just stating how asinine it is to assume something that is statistically unlikely to occur.
ReplyDeleteHere's the deal: seasons like this one happen ALL. THE. TIME. This isn't a once in a century deal, sometimes we get consecutive crappy winters. We actually had THREE consecutive back in the 80s, and much of the 40s was a poor time for snow. First half of the 50s was the same deal. This season ain't over either, not by a long shot. If you want to commit to spring that's fine, just realize you're doing it very prematurely.
So well put!
DeleteThe historical data, as I've posted before says... Since the winter of 1940-1941, there have been 10 winters where we only had between 25-35 inches of snow for the months Nov-Jan. However in all 10 of those years, the snowfall during February and March was greater than the total snow in the prior 3 months. On average we rec'd 45% more snow in Feb-Mar than we had in the prior 3 months. On average during those years we had 43" in Feb-Mar.
For example in 2006-2007 we only had 34.6" Nov-Jan but had 66" in Feb-Mar. In 88-89 we only had 25.5" Nov-Jan but we had 46.2" in Feb-Mar.
It's foolish to draw conclusions beyond a couple days at this point. But I will side with the historical data and say odds are in favor for more than 30" in Feb & Mar.
Andy
This winter stinks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOL
ReplyDeleteWhen will the sun be back? This cold weather has taken me completely by surprise! ROCwhine
ReplyDeleteIt is colder than a well digger's ass compaired to yesterday!
ReplyDeleteIs the well digger's arse related to the witch's teet?
ReplyDelete