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Monday, January 28

Big Warm Up by Wednesday!

Written by John DiPasquale:

After snow & ice Monday morning & early afternoon thanks to a weak low & it's warm front, we will see a very nice warming trend, or not for snow lovers & winter enthusiasts!  Monday's highs will be up around 40, while another stronger warm front will cross the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night with some rain/storm developing Tuesday afternoon into the early Tuesday night.  This will set the stage for mid 40s to around 50 for highs Tuesday, & then POSSIBLY 60s Wednesday for a bit with gusty, possibly damaging south-southwest wind gusts, which will drive the record warmth in here.  The current record is 55 set back in 1974.  You can kiss that record goodbye!  I would be shocked if that is not shattered Wednesday across WNY.  A cold front will then swing through late Wednesday/early Wednesday night & deliver reality back to the region for the rest of the week into the weekend with a some lake snow & little bit of general snow mixed in there at times.  Stay tuned, & enjoy the taste of spring for the middle of the week!       

55 comments:

  1. Too bad Wednesday's warmth looks to be spoiled by wind and eventually rain. Bummer.

    As I see it we have a window of around 30 days following the warmup to get ourselves a genuinely snowy period, because starting around the beginning of March we'll start to see the impacts from warmer phases of the MJO as well as a southeast ridge. This could easily end up not being the case, but as my amateur eye currently sees it we have about a month to go before the pattern fundamentally reverses to a warmer one.

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    1. That's pretty much my line of thinking also, anonymous. Only I think the window is a little quicker.. maybe 21 days to get a snowy period. I'm thinking week 2 as the MJO moves into phase one we get the subtropical jet involved in the pattern for 7-10 days and that will be the stormy period. With our luck the East coast will be the jackpot zone though.

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    2. Both NWS and TWC long term forecasts agree with you guys. Both say a cold Feb with a warm March followed by a very warm April. Hope they are right. Winter can't end soon enough.

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  2. DENSE FOG in Hamlin. It is dense enough for an advisory to be posted for tonight I would think. The temperature is holding at 34 deg with the deep snow pack in place. I still like later this week into next week for an extended period of snowy weather. No big east coast storms, but could be some more energetic and moisture laden clippers swing through. I think the lakes will also be active with the LAKE BAND ON THE MOVE THIS TIME, EVERYONE MIGHT GET INVOLVED going into end of this week. We will see.

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  3. The weather evens out, and I really think we're going to be getting quite a lot of LES and synoptic snow in the next 3-4 weeks. I'm calling a 40-50" February. What does everyone else think?

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    1. I think we will get the liquid to pull that off. I think we will be fighting temperatures after the 10th though. Back and forth between warm and cold..will need to get good timing to keep it as snow instead of liquid. It's pretty much my worse nightmare and I hope the idea is wrong.

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  4. Weatherguy 40-50 inches of snow in February? Really? You have about as much chance of that happeneing as the Bills do of winning the Super Bowl next year. We may get 4 to 5 inches the month of February. 43 degrees right now. 50s tomorrow and 60s on Wednesday and people think an early spring is not here? Keep calling me a troll but all of you snow mongers are looking silly because March and April very warm.

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  5. I believe we will see below normal snow in February leading to a worse snow year than last year which is hard to believe. We had 59 inches last year and so far this year we have only seen 30. We need another 29 inches of snow in February to make it to last year. I doubt we will even see 20" inches of snow this February. My guess is around 10-15" at most for February leading to around 45-50", oficially at the airport. Pathetic at best. It is hard to believe this winter will be worse for snow than last year.

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    1. In Wayland we didn't even hit 59", not even close! We didn't cash in on any of the lake effect events that happened in Rochester last year. Very pathetic, I remember very snowy winters as a kid, this just is NOT right!

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    2. I remember snowier winters as a kid..but I also remember using our sleds as boats in the giant puddles left by the melting snow some years.. mid winter.

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  6. Also, do not cound on laker effect for Rochester this week as the winds will be West-Northwest which will favor areas East of Rochester and then we warm-up again early next week into the 30's.

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  7. Nothing worse than rain on January 28th in Rochester. Two horrible winters back to back who would have thunk it.

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  8. For the record, last year at this time we had 18.6"... And a typical Rochester winter has fluctuating temperatures that brings rain everyone now and then. Nothing strange about this 2 day stretch and we already have double what we had last year at this time!

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  9. Do not think that lake effect snow later in the week will be a big deal at all. Hamlin tell the other 30 residents they are safe.

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  10. I agree with Caledonia that we are in for ups and downs with temps akin to last week vs. this week - not much hope for a prolonged wintry period. However, those trying to call this year done for snowfall should keep in mind it only takes one storm to dump 20+ inches, and that definitely can't be ruled out yet. I do feel bad for all the snowmobile owners. We've had two crappy years in a row...but that doesn't mean winter weather is over for us. I love snow but I just love weather in general. Give me ice, strong winds, a severe thunderstorm, record warmth, just about anything that isn't 40 degrees and solemnly rainy and I'm happy. I'm looking forward to Wednesday and to the cold front after the warmth. Maybe I'll have some nice views when I'm climbing this weekend.

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  11. Weatherguy, we are still over 20 inches below normal this year and with no snow in sight for the next week at least, last years snowfall will catch up with this years 30" very quickly. Also it is not normal to hit 60 degrees or better twice in January hence why we will break the old record high on Wednesday and why we broke the record in the beginning of the month. A January thaw normally is once in January not twice. That is not normal.

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  12. Might not be able to get the message out in time. Heavy fog tonight and strong winds on Wednesday will make it more difficult for the postman and his horse. Besides all the cows where lying in a row facing the northeast this evening. Must mean only one thing, more significant snow coming to the area soon. Farm town signs of winter GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME. :)

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    Replies
    1. Hamlin, you made me laugh - thanks!

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  13. weatherguy, I am with you. I have not given up on this winter yet. I DONT SEE THIS BEING A SNOWLESS STRETCH, NOT EVEN CLOSE TO SNOWLESS. We will see.

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  14. The historical data does not support the abysmally low snowfalls for February and March as projected by the negative naysayers. Here are some historical facts---Since the winter of 1940-1941, there has been 10 winters where we only had between 25-35 inches of snow for the months Nov-Jan. However in all 10 of those years, the snowfall during February and March was greater than the total snow in the prior 3 months. On average we rec'd 45% more snow in Feb-Mar than we had in the prior 3 months. On average during those years we had 43" in Feb-Mar.

    For example in 2006-2007 we only had 34.6" Nov-Jan but had 66" in Feb-Mar. In 88-89 we only had 25.5" Nov-Jan but we had 46.2" in Feb-Mar.

    Andy

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    1. Nice research work, Andy. I'm looking at things a little differently. As a snowmobiler I'm looking for snow pack and prolonged winter conditions. I'm not suggesting I don't think it will snow late February and March.. I'm just thinking between systems will be pretty warm starting mid February. We all know we can have 40's for a week and get a 13 inch snow storm if things line up right. I just think the window for what I'm looking for is closing quickly.

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  15. The NWS has likely snow chances late this week and into the early part of the weekend, based on the zone forecast for Monroe County. The MEAN flow looks at this time to be out of the WNW, but we can't rule out little fluctuations that turn it more northwesterly at times. The discussion mentions a flow out of the SW for a time, so our friends in Buffalo may finally get some significant lake effect action. Their snow situation is more dire than ours, since we're heading into a time period of more synoptic snow than lake effect, and from living there a lot of my life I can say that they don't get nearly as many major synoptic snows as we do. We have the advantages of being a bit closer to the coast and having Lake Ontario nearby to enhance the outer bands of large storms. Snowfall for a whole month can't be forecasted reliably in the least, but I have a hunch we'll do better than normal in February. 25-35 inches is my guess, with a final seasonal tally of 65-75 inches.

    I have a non-rhetorical question for Troll Anon: If one of us started posting about a 3 day cold stretch in early April clearly marking a return to winter, what would your response be?

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  16. Check this out:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

    5 out of 5 confidence for the 6-10 day period, 4 out of 5 for the 8-14 day period.

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  17. For the record..I'm still on board for sometime between February 5-10th for some wintry love.

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  18. Yeah me too...no ones really mentioned storm potential but it's there.

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  19. Take a look at this site: http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/. Snow in Russia. Now this is snow.

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    1. That's just overkill O____o

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    2. That side of the globe has had several nasty winters in a row. Seems hard to believe with the tame winters we have had lately.

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  20. Possible thunderstorms in the dead of winter with temps in the 60's. Very weird and VERY unusual. Our winters have changed for good. They did say that big earthquake that hit Japan a few years ago changed the axis of the earth a little. I wonder if that has permanently changed the weather patterns around the world. I would not doubt it. Is it co-incidence that last winter and this winter are mild and snowless? Last year the US was the warmest we have ever been since records have been recorded. Maybe there is something to this earthquake. Time will tell.

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  21. I suppose you can find just about any forecast you want if you look enough. From the HPC:

    BY DAY 7, ALMOST THE ENTIRE NATION SHOULD
    EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH PACIFIC AIR WASHING
    ACROSS THE CONTINENT.

    That would pretty much destroy everything I predicted ...lol.

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  22. Just go with what I have been predicting for the last few weeks. It is an early spring enjoy the warm weather today and 60s tomorrow. This is unheard of two January days in the 60s and record warmth. Again all snow mongers can be in denial but the truth will set you free. There are nno big storms on the horizon and really not going to get that could after tomorrow so keep hating the troll but enjoy the spring temperatures. Also Hamlin keep an eye on that lake effect you represent your community of 30, they are counting on you.

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  23. I agree with you about the Earthquake. The experts will not admit it though.

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  24. Interesting we have a fair amount of lighting in the line passing through the southwest corner of the state. I wonder if the same will happen when the cold front passes through tomorrow night?

    Andy

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  25. I highly, highly, highly doubt that a slight shift in Earth's axis caused anything other than a negligible impact on our climate. It's probable that the axis shifted a few inches or so, but if that had any significant impact on our climate then the 2 million mile annual variance in Earth's distance from the Sun would surely be enough to fry us all. For the record, Earth is CLOSER to the Sun during the winter months and farther during the summer months. 2012 was the warmest year on record in the US due in part to global warming, and had nothing to do with any earthquake. As for the (possibly) 2 days in the 60's this January, it's not all that unprecedented. Go back to January 2008, we had CONSECUTIVE days in the 60's if my memory is correct, and one of those days featured severe thunderstorms. We're in a La Nina type pattern right now despite not having a true La Nina, it's not all that strange to see wild swings in temperature with big pushes of mild air during such patterns. And as for last winter and (thus far) this winter being mild, that can be attributed to a variety of factors, none of which include earthquakes. Last season we had an MJO that was continuously stuck in warm phases, a record +AO and a persistent +NAO. This season we had an annoyingly persistent -PNA for seven weeks that served to ruin all of November and most of December, and the NAO has been no help whatsoever being near neutral much of the time. In addition, when we HAVE gotten cold there hasn't been any blocking in the right spot to turn the storm track up the coast, rather we've been seeing a suppressed storm track out to sea keeping most of the synoptic snow south of us. It's part coincidence, part global warming.

    Seems like the first half of February could make or break the season. The lack of blocking means we'll need any storms to be well-timed if we want any substantial snowfall, but it could be an active period regardless. Winter ain't over yet.

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  26. I know I was wrong this past weekend. But going out on a limb and saying a week or so from today is worth watching. Not saying for sure but believe some potential for a storm for someone is there.

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  27. I do not want to start an argument on this blog, but I am an old fashioned type of person who relies on old fashioned methods for predicting how the weather will be. I guess it's the Farming life in me. Well anyways, here is what I think might happen, but not positive because the weather is not 100% anytime. Here in the Rochester area we will see another week of Winter weather starting this Thursday and lasting until the middle of next week. It will be cold, but not brutally cold. For snow fall, it will be confined off the lake to the usual snow belt areas. No major storms I see happening. After the middle of next week, the temperatures will be slightly above average and stay that way through Feb. Remember only 28 days in February. March and April will be very warm for our norms and will feature dryer than usual conditions. However come May, you might see your snow! Now if any of this comes true, then I will start playing the lottery. Having fun on the blog :)

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    1. There was actually some analog years that popped up that were similar to that last week. You could be right!

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  28. Does anyone remember March of 99? 2 blockbuster storms in 3 days. Guess what the weather was like before and after? You guessed it, above normal temps. Anything is possible, especially here in Rochester. Secondly, I find it hard to believe we won't add 30 inches or more of snowfall between now and the end of snow season, which hopefully isn't May (referring to the Old McDonald reference above). Enjoy your one day of spring/ "second January thaw" tomorrow!

    This blog rules!

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  29. I can't imagine a temperature drop of 30+ degrees in 24 hours without some hefty winds. Soft ground and a lot of rain might mean I lose a few more trees?

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  30. Very foggy 38 degs, with deep snow still on the ground. NWS should post advisories again they where LATE POSTING THEM LAST NIGHT. The snow will be gone by tomorrow night but will be back by Thursday night and beyond. Lake effect will be significant for some south of Ontario by Friday afternoon. Second of the two clippers should be watched could be an area wide significant snow maker. Snowy times are just ahead, it will look like winter again VERY SOON.

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  31. From the NWS:

    THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS WILL BE IN FAVORED WESTERLY FETCH AREAS OFTHE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

    Rochester, Buffalo and Syracuse will, once again, miss out on lake effect snows. A west wind will not do it for Rochester.

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    1. The BEST POTENTIAL will be in the westerly fetch areas. Wind direction can change temporarily and carry the lake snows to different locations.

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    2. In fact, I just found this tidbit in the discussion:

      "THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN STEADY STATE WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDS IMPACTING MULTIPLE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME AREAS STILL HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS."

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  32. I would not bet on that. There will be a trough sliding through that will move that LES band south onto the southern shoreline. The tracks of the up coming clippers will also be key to LES location. IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT LES BAND LOCATIONS. WE SHOULD ALL KNOW THAT BY NOW I WOULD THINK.

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  33. It is beautiful outside. Wow!!! Spring is in the air

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  34. I could do without the heavy rain. Yard is a soggy mess soon to be an ice rink.

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  35. Reading the Buffalo afd sounds like a 24 hour wind event...yuck! And I wouldn't dismiss lake snow around here just yet either:

    IN FACT THERE IS A
    POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ALONG THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE
    ONTARIO AS THIS BAND PUSHES INLAND. THOUGH THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
    FLOW AND SHORTER FETCH MAY REDUCE AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT....GUIDANCE IS
    HINTING AT A SOLID UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON.

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  36. If you consider the duration of spring to be a 12 hr. period, then maybe it is spring. Beyond that, you my friend are a ignoramous.

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  37. Looks like spring is in Wisconsin too....lol.

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  38. Hullo W.NY! I was looking for a place to ask the $64k of the corporate station people--all very nice working people of course. At times like this when the weather is so strange--they use all kinds of descriptive adjectives but we never hear any mention of 'climate change' or 'global warming' or even a suggestion that there's any kind of human generated pattern that's affecting our weather. I had a few doubts about the impact of climate change until I enjoyed our last 'so-called' winter, now i have no doubts at all but a lot of concern about change in the near future that i might actually experience. I must admit to feeling a bit guilty about enjoying the effects of climate change. I'm a native to this area and not all that young. I remember the huge mountains of snow that my father loved to pile even higher and was great fun to play on. And the summer was really hot--i know now read incredibly, sweaty humid--which made you wonder why people came here in the first place. Well, the winters are warmer and less snowy and the summers--it would seem to me--less unbearable, actually kind of nice and just pleasantly warm over relatively long periods. So, i've come to just enjoy the nice weather when it's here. But just now when it's approaching 60 before 9.00 in morning in late January, you've got to wonder what's next? Do you remember that old Twilight Zone episode? well, best of luck!

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  39. Temperatures like this are not unprecedented. You will see events like this going back to when record keeping began in the 1800's. Also consecutive years of lower snowfall has occurred many times, just check out the 1940's where almost the entire decade was below average.

    As for more recent, other than the last two years, the previous decade brought some well above average snowfalls.

    I sometimes think we are conditioned to remember snowy winters because the are more memorable. As for instance I think most always expect Christmas to be white, but around here for over 70 years 42% are not white.

    As for climate change, I think the data speaks, I'm just not convinced that 1 or 2 data points (the last 2 years) are part of a trend.

    Andy

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  40. Only extremes that haven't happened yet this winter are a massive blizzard or ice storm. Might want to start planning for it now. :evil grin:

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  41. High Wind Warning Again. How many times this month already? Does anyone on this blog know how bad it will be?

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