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Friday, February 22

A Pretty Benign Weekend





Written by John DiPasquale:

Storm misses us east with just a coating to an inch or so, & a little mix later this afternoon into tonight.  It will likely turn a little slick in spots late today & tonight, but nothing that significant is expected right through the weekend.  It appears that we may see a touch of rain late tonight & Saturday morning that should end as a little snow later Saturday afternoon & evening.  Little, if any, accumulation is expected.  A scattering of snow showers & flurries will be around Sunday with a brisk wind.  Highs will cool from the upper 30s to around 40 Saturday, to the low & mid 30s Sunday.

It will be a nice quiet start to next week, but then we will have to watch a big stacked storm moving into the Eastern Lakes, & another trying to take shape closer to the coast.  Stay tuned through the weekend into the start of next weekend to find out the latest, but this one will either be a big heavy, wet snow maker, especially for the high terrain, &/or a mixed bag, rain maker here.  We'll see...I know snow lovers you are probably thinking with our luck this will be a rain maker for the majority.  It could be, but at least there's more hope with this one currently.

Have a nice weekend bloggers! 

71 comments:

  1. Come on John it WILL be a rain maker here mark it down! Winter is over we are into March one week from today. Check out the temperature for Monday. Get the outdoor furniture out because spring has sprung! If you have noticed all the snow mongers are gone on the blog. They now know that spring is here. The Troll was correct because this winter is right around the same snowfall at last years. Also our average temperatures for the whole winter will be higher than normal.

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  2. Well these storms never seem to pan out lately. But boy there could be a monster in a week from now or over that weekend. Probably will end up more east like they have been. But the EURO shows a bomb in the imeframe right over Cape Cod. Just thought I mention it and I believe March 3rd was the date of the 1993 Superstorm.

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  3. March 3 was the Ice Storm. I think the 93 storm was mid March.

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  4. Next week is going to be an exciting week to say the least! The Euro is being stubborn with the transfer of energy to the low on the coast, but I think it'll come around. And FYI, we're only about 16" behind our average annual snowfall and 1" from beating last year. Winter is far from over...

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  5. You are right Anonymous it was mid March for the Superstorm and March 3rd for ice storm my apologies. What do you mean by excited Weatherguy? You think there we be a storm up the coast that will impact us?

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  6. If Weatherguy is talking about that possible storm next weekend it is far east of us again. Not surprised because we have a protective snow shield over us.

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  7. I'm talking about Tuesday night through next weekend... Might get a messy mix to start but I think the air will be cold enough to support a decent snowfall before the blocking forces a vortex over the northeast. I am by no ways a meteorologist but I can see the potential is there to make up for lost time as far as snowfall goes. I'm sure Scott and the News 8 team will weigh in on this potential as the beginning of next week approaches.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah I was reading on the nws forecast discussion and it sure does have potential for precipitation. Let's hope there is enough cold air.

      Andy

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  8. The way it looks, it will be cold and snowy for the month of March, and most of April. Snow lovers should love this. This summer will be one of the coldest and wettest we have seen around here for some time. Forget about days at the beach, cookouts, and any outdoor activities. It will be a wash out after wash out.

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  9. Not sure what you are seeing Weatherguy for next Tuesday/Wednesday but latest GFS has rain for all. We will not see any winter storms the rest of the season just spring rain.

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  10. I think it is so funny that many on this blog have been saying all winter. Wait until next week and we could see a BIG storm. That week comes and still no storm. Then I hear, wait till next week and we could see a BIG storm. That week comes and still no storm. Eventually someone will be right.

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  11. That's kinda what you would do on a weather blog isn't it..talk about potential storms? We could all just watch the snow flurries and talk about how nice spring has been, since the 2nd week of January, like a bunch of nut cases I suppose.

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  12. Weatherguy seeing nothing on the models for the next 10 days. Even the alarmist at the other station was quiet. BTW Scott said last night he and his wife are having twins this week. He will be busy with many things besides the weather. Congratulations Scott!

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  13. Congratulations Scott, there is nothing better than newborn babies.

    It is time to bring on spring. I have had enough winter for one year. I would take sunny with temps in the 60's from now on, but that is not going to happen for a while. I think we will have to wait until April for spring to arrive this year. Next weeks weather looks miserable, rain snow mix with wind. I would rather it was all snow but it does not look like we will have enough cold air for the next storm. We will see.

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  14. Again there is nothing setting up on the models except rain. Winter is done for another year.

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  15. Any updates from Weatherguy about the interesting times ahead?

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  16. I wish I did, but I have never seen a setup like the one being advertised by the models for next week. Just going to have to wait to hear what Scott says...

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  17. Stacey on the weather tonight "No big snow storms for at least the next 7 days". Winter is over so we need to move on particularly Weatherguy who says it is going to be interesting next week while the meteorologist says rain and nothing? Again "The Troll" has had it right all along we are 17 inches behind the norm for this time of the year in regards to snowfall. March is coming in like a cub and we will be lucky to get 65 inches for the season. Hail to the "The Troll" it was right on for snow totals and warmth.

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  18. You will be waiting for a long time. Scott and his wife are having twins this week. He is out to take care of his family. Congrats Scott! He will certainly not be paying attention to the weather but rather trying to sleep. Scott did seem intrigued earlier this week about mid and late next week however he did not say much the last few days about that.

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  19. I think you miss read the models yesterday Weatherguy when you seemed excited about next week.

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  20. I guarantee we get over 65" of snow this season! Teleconnections are pointing to a lonnnnnnng March and with a cutoff low lingering over us for all of next week, I'd be shocked to see grass anywhere in the viewing area by next Friday. I'd be interested to hear what Andrew or David think?

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  21. Oh no we are losing all of our grass next week!!!! What is the world coming to no grass?

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  22. Andrew and David ? They have not been right all year. Even winter panic channel 10 has nothing next week. Maybe you should be interested in what "The Troll" says. It says spring is here and get out you grills, pools and patio furniture. I beleive in "The Troll" it has been right on all winter.

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  23. Moron troll has been saying spring is here for the last 8 week's. What an idiot loser.

    That's sort of like saying fall is almost here.

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  24. With all due respect to the channel 8 team, but they need to stop predicting what they think will happen for the winter. They have been wrong the past 3 years.

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    Replies
    1. They said it would be an easy winter to take..with maybe 3-6 weeks of winter weather. Were they really that far off?

      Delete
  25. The big East coast storm was a bust. In hindsight I'm glad it was never meant for us or we'd have to withstand the usual whining about how our storms are always a bust.

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  26. Mother nature is working nicely toward the stats I've been providing. We were in a snow deficit Nov-Jan, and the stats have shown that in those years that Feb and March are usually above average.

    For this February we are currently running a few inches ahead of the 73 year average of 21", with the prospect for a bit more snow on the horizon for next week to close out Feb. In these years of snow deficit for Nov-Jan, we've average 15" (median 17") for March, ranging from 4.6" to 22.4". So I still say we have an excellent chance of ending up with 75"-80" for the season. Nothing like last year, not even close.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. I meant 70-80 for the season.

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  27. It is still well below average and 70" is not much more than the 59 we received last year. Yes, this winter was definately colder than last year, but very similar in snow fall. We had 1 storm this year and that was way back in December. The small storm we received a few weeks ago was mostly lake effect and about 6-8 synoptic. It is amazing that we have had 2 storms this year and none last year but yet we have only had 58" this year and a total of 59" last year. It just shows you that in between storms there has not been much action. Lake effect this year, for Rochester, has been low. I am ready for warm temps now.

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    Replies
    1. In Hamlin the second storm was more impressive than the first storm. This winter was location dependent. Here in Hamlin we are WAY over last years snowfall total. If we measured snow like they do at the airport, we would be WELL OVER 100 inch's on the season so far. We have had more snow in Hamlin than we have had in the past 4 or 5 years. It is to bad it has melted off four or five times this year, or we would have some big piles of snow around. I wish everyone could have had the LES we have had, it would have made everyone happy.

      Lets wait and see what later this week brings before calling it quits on this winter after that I am with you BRING ON SPRING.

      Delete
  28. Weatherguy where are you? Is everything dead for next week now?

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  29. This system coming in Tuesday night, and looking like it is sitting all week and spinning ,is pretty complex. I agree with you Weatherguy that we may get some good snow depending on the temperatures. Looks like eastern NY will and up into Mass.I do not know this one is complex and Scott is out so not sure who will be weighing in on this one but something to keep an eye on for sure. Maybe David or Chris will say what they think.

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  30. Is there any concern about significant icing here? Or is this just a mostly rain event?

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  31. Looks like a cold, damp week of weather. Rain by day snow at night. Figures we'd finally get real blocking as March rolls around. Ugh.

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  32. The EURO has been trending towards a SNOWY Wednesday-Thursday, with the 12Z run giving us a sizeable snow event with significant snowfall possible Wednesday night and Thursday. Weatherguy might be correct in talking about an interesting wintery week of weather. The EURO has a similar runs to earlier GFS runs. Snow lover DONT GIVE UP ON NEXT WEEK!!!! YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN!!!! SNOWSTORM????

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  33. Weatherguy should not be discounted. If GFS moves towards recent Euro and NAM runs we could get a fair amoint of snow.

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  34. We definitely have a snowy week ahead of us. The question of course is how much. It's certainly an interesting set up.

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  35. Will any mets from News 8 weigh in with their opinion? Where is David and Weatherguy?

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  36. Hamlin Plower said this winter is location dependent, and boy is he correct. Here in SP, we have had 1.5-2x what the airport has measured. I still have 6" snowpack in my backyard. Even more interesting is at my camp in northeast Oswego County. My guess is that area has received at least 150", a mere 90 miles to the east of Rochester. The last lake effect event last Wednesday dropped 30" of snow (combined with the 5" that fell the day before, which fell as rain in the ROC). I have owned the place for three winters and this is the deepest I have ever seen the snow at one time. I wish we could post pictures here, you would think it was from a different season. I planted a pine tree in the front yard up there and unburied it yesterday. I dug into 3+ feet of snow around the tree to clear it out. Amazing. After raking the roof, the snow is halfway up the first floor windows. If I opened one window, the snow would pour into the cabin. I have put nearly 2500 miles on my snowmobile (sorry Ginger!!), 2000 of them up there. What a difference. The snow will hang around up there for another month unless there is a big warm up.

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  37. Chris thanks for bragging but that does not help us about any potential snowfall this week for all? How about your opinion on that or because you are a snow fat cat you could care less?

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    Replies
    1. Hehe, yes, I am bragging a bit... :-) I don't care as much at this point because I have a place to get my snowfix. I have been at the aforementioned place all week without internet access so I have been out of "the loop" for awhile. With a little bit of reading, it seems as though we have some potential for heavy wet snow if the storm tracks right.

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  38. Well latest GFS has appeared to come in line with Euro and it does have a lot of moisture with it! If snow it could be a heavy snowfall?

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  39. Still like our chances of seeing at least some accumulation but I really have no idea how much... I'll leave that for the News 8 Team to tackle.

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  40. Wow Weatherguy you seem less confident than you were yesterday? Do not let that troll get to you. Think he is just trying to get attention from all.

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  41. Another channel states that this is something to watch and it could be sizeable for us. Ice and snow.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed. I think we will get something out of this one. Depending upon timing, it could be a Wednesday school-closer

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  42. This will be no big deal. A few inches of snow at best and rain. Stop snow mongers just enjoy the spring like temperatures tomorrow. It is the same old story with you guys. Make up storm after storm potential any nothing comes of it. Enjoy the spring because tomorrow it will have sprung.

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  43. Even Macedon has come back with her/his hope. She/He will only be back to negative tomorrow when we hear once again storm to our west and we always miss blah blah blah. If this was something of any importance Scott would have given his opinion in by now.

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  44. Scott is having twins... On the list of important things in life, weather is about 159,934 on my list. Its cool as heck to watch, but who gives a crap, really..... Im willing to bet that spring comes, then summer, then fall, then winter again............

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  45. Wow no updates on this storm. Thinking all snow for western, NY and possibly 4-8 inches?

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  46. Rain, rain, rain get ready for rain tomorrow night and Wednesday. That is why you are seeing no posts by anyone particularly Weatherguy because he knows his wintry prediction is not looking good.

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  47. Looks rather snowy Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

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  48. NBD for Rochester while Kansas sees their second blizzard in 2 weeks.

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  49. Accuweather is saying 4-8 inches. Sounds like one of these elevation dependent storms, where little snow falls near the lake, and a foot or more falls in the hills south of town.
    At any rate the storm looks rather juicy.

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  50. Where is Weatherguy with his update? Also is anyone around from News 8?

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  51. It appears the latest model run tracks this storm through Pennsylvania and south of us? If that is the case would we not be in a good spot and on the cold side?

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  52. This blog is weird. No updates from anyone about tomorrow night and Wednesday? Kind of sad how quiet it is on here must be a non winter event.

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  53. Don't want to jinx it....

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  54. Going to be minimal snow at best. For some reason this will be an elevation storm and the hills south will get snow.

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  55. Troll Bag- where is your claim to early spring now? Hasn't looked the part yet and the forecast looks very seasonal and somewhat white...I think in 3 weeks, I will join you in your crusade for spring. At that point, you will claim victory and nominate yourself as a world class weather soothsayer.

    Winter just keeps coming...

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  56. If a storm track South of us through Pa we are on the cold side and the system would quickly bring down enough cold air to change any mix to pure snow. JOhn was leaning more towards snow this AM.

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