Written by John DiPasquale:
The quiet start to the week will be replaced by a swath of heavier precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. The BIG questions are the temperatures, precise track and amount of energy and timing of the transfer of energy from Midwestern storm to east side of Appalachian mountains little storm. With that said, the uncertainty with precipitation type is quite significant at this time. Some data, including the NAM, is suggesting a colder set up with initial mix to a heavy, wet snow that could really pile up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, while the GFS has one of the milder solutions with more rain & mix than anything Tuesday night into the start of Wednesday, & possibly changing precip to all snow for much of Wednesday. Either way, the high terrain has the best opportunity to receive a significant heavy wet snowfall out of this, but the lower elevations, including the Greater Rochester area cannot be ruled out on waking up to a bunch of concrete snow Wednesday. If precipitation is heavy enough, & transfer of energy is great enough to the east, the likelihood of getting a significant snowfall for all will be greater, & the opposite is true if the alternative occurs. If the colder solutions play out, some power outages are a distinct possibility with several inches of the wet gloppy snow & some wind. Regardless of what takes place with this storm Tuesday night & Wednesday, it will slowly grow colder Thursday, Friday & into the weekend, setting us up for occasional snow showers & limited lake snows over the weekend. Temperatures will likely average several degrees below average over the upcoming weekend with gusty winds accentuating the unseasonable chill. It also looks like winter will make itself right at home beyond the weekend, as we roll through the first week of March.
Have a good one all!