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Monday, February 25

Wintry &/ or Messy Weather on the Way





Written by John DiPasquale:

The quiet start to the week will be replaced by a swath of heavier precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The BIG questions are the temperatures, precise track and amount of energy and timing of the transfer of energy from Midwestern storm to east side of Appalachian mountains little storm.  With that said, the uncertainty with precipitation type is quite significant at this time.  Some data, including the NAM, is suggesting a colder set up with initial mix to a heavy, wet snow that could really pile up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, while the GFS has one of the milder solutions with more rain & mix than anything Tuesday night into the start of Wednesday, & possibly changing precip to all snow for much of Wednesday.  Either way, the high terrain has the best opportunity to receive a significant heavy wet snowfall out of this, but the lower elevations, including the Greater Rochester area cannot be ruled out on waking up to a bunch of concrete snow Wednesday.  If precipitation is heavy enough, & transfer of energy is great enough to the east, the likelihood of getting a significant snowfall for all will be greater, & the opposite is true if the alternative occurs.  If the colder solutions play out, some power outages are a distinct possibility with several inches of the wet gloppy snow & some wind.  Regardless of what takes place with this storm Tuesday night & Wednesday, it will slowly grow colder Thursday, Friday & into the weekend, setting us up for occasional snow showers & limited lake snows over the weekend.  Temperatures will likely average several degrees below average over the upcoming weekend with gusty winds accentuating the unseasonable chill.  It also looks like winter will make itself right at home beyond the weekend, as we roll through the first week of March.  

Have a good one all!

37 comments:

  1. So John what you are saying is this storm is unpredictable until it happens?

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  2. I believe the Euro also supports the cold solution unless it has changed? Where are other the weather experts?

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  3. Here we are heading into the first week of March. What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, Spring had already settled in. Looking at all the models and long range forecasts, it looks like Spring will be taking it's time getting here. heck, I would not be surprised that April turns out to be one of our colder and snowier Aprils on record. Good news for all you Snow lovers! For the Summer, from what I see, it does not look very promising for many outdoor activities. The summer might be one of those damp and cool ones. Would any of you experts like to comment?

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  4. I will take damp and cool over hot and dry any day. At least grass would stay green and we would not be in a drought.

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  5. Surprised the NWS has not issued a winter storm watch? Must be this is not a big deal for us.

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  6. Guessing they will wait till later this evening as there is still uncertainty about temp. They are issued for a large area west of here.

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  7. Good afternoon. A very complicated forecast in store for the region tomorrow night and early Wednesday. My gut tells me that most of us will get a cold rain but the elevations South have the best shot at several inches of wet, heavy snow. Bristol hills region, Southern Tier hills. Rochester should get more than a slushy 1-3" I think because the 850 mb low will stay WEST of Rochester. If the 850mb low were in Northern PA, we'd get a better shot at wet snow in the valleys but that WON'T likely be the case.

    Scott

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  8. Boring!!! but it figures the way this winter has gone.

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  9. Thanks for the update Scott enjoy the new babies

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  10. From another station:

    Concern grows over risk of a heavy, wet snow accumulation Wednesday from the storm now in the southern plains.

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  11. Scott is the best sdo this is a done deal. Again NBD for Rochester but should we be surprised?

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  12. Winter storm watch issued by the NWS...

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  13. it looks like that is for the southern tier

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  14. Yep not Monroe County for southern tier, Livingston and Ontario Counties. This is going to be rain for the city and one inch of slush at best.

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  15. "It also looks like winter will make itself right at home beyond the weekend, as we roll through the first week of March."

    My back is getting sore from taking out the lawn furniture and then bringing it back in.

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  16. Well, It is about time that the southerntier got in on the action. I will take it!

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  17. Nothing from Weatherguy, David, Andrew or Hamlin? This must be nothing to talk about. Even Macedon has not complained?

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  18. Mostly rain likely in Hamlin, not to exciting. I cant complain we have had our fair share of snow this winter here in Hamlin. This forecast is far from set in stone, but it looks likely. We will have to wait until Tuesday night before we will know for sure who is going to get snow, who is going to get rain and who will get the messy mix. Either way winter is not done for a while in western NY, not by a long shot!!!

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  19. Its going to be close... all on the placement of low who gets snow, who gets rain.... Wont know till the low is at our doorstep...

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  20. Nope, just had to work all day. But this storm is wreaking havoc on every single model run right now, even less than a day from the event! Personally (for what it is worth), I think this is going to be one of those deals where it is not known what is going to happen until it actually happens! I trust that News 8 will nail this forecast, but don't be surprised if things change a couple times before tomorrow night, whether it be for better or worse... I'm just happy everyone will see at least some snow and that this blog is finally alive!

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  21. Well no excitement here because Scott basically crushed this as nothing but rain and NBD.

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  22. Not buying this at all. You can tell the alarmist on the other channel wants it to be all snow but he is just hoping. You can tell he does not believe it and knows it will be mostly rain.

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  23. NWS forecast discussion makes you think it could go either way, even though they are leaning toward more of a mix in Monroe County.

    Andy

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  24. New forecast just in to the station. Snow maybe? If so anywhere from 1-12 inches throughout the Rochester area. Stay tuned!

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  25. Latest NAM run warmer get your umbrella ready.

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  26. All rain:

    From the NWS:

    THE LATEST TEMPERATURES PROFILES SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WILL
    FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
    THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.


    Oh well. Typical of this winter. Blizzard in the South, rain in the North.

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    Replies
    1. Temps are going to be close.. a couple degree change can make or break the forecast. We shall see.

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  27. This one is over too before even started. Rain rain rain! What a joke as I have been predicting a spring type rain is coming. But once again people like Weatherguy try to suck the snow mongers in with a very interesting winter week ahead. Again winter is done please stop with these storms are coming. Get out the spring gear and enjoy.

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  28. Looking at the radar not impressive and clearly all rain coming. Euro even went warmer so the GFS was correct all along.

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  29. Temps trending downward after today to below average well into next week. Looks like snowy period after rain tonight.

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  30. I see why no one has been on here. To call this a storm is an absolute joke. This will be a little rain for the large majority.

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  31. It is much more likely that people are on the blog less frequently because of all the annoying sophomoric posts - or maybe I'm just speaking for myself. I'm expecting mostly rain, but something closer to the last wet snow dump we had isn't out of the question. We will see - and congratulations Scott!

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  32. Wow 45 degrees out and the birds are singing and so is "The Troll". It has been spot on again while the snow mongers continue to call for potential storms and pattern changes. It is spring time and today shows it. Do not fight it and just sit back and enjoy it. Not sure how you can expect wet snow when right now it is 45 degrees out? Hello where is Weatherguy?

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  33. Oh John just said a coating to a slushy inch for most on his forecast. Wow better get out the snow blower for this big storm. What a joke and people continue to call it a storm?

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  34. Meanwhile Texas, Kansas and other parts of the South have seen 2 blizzards in as many weeks. I think we need to move South for good snowstorms. Rochester is becoming a joke for storms.

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