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Friday, February 8

Heaviest Snows Build in this Afternoon





Written by John DiPasquale:

Hi All!  Sorry I haven't gotten on here sooner, but have been rather busy updating website, graphics & looking at new information.  For those of you that are raining &/or mixing in Southern Monroe & points south, you will most likely see your cold rain & mix go to all snow in the next hour or so, while areas east of Rochester north of the Thruway will see increasing snow intensity over the next couple hours.  Near & south of the Thruway from near Farmington across the Finger Lakes will get into the snow & mix with a pretty quick changeover to all snow expected by the mid to late afternoon, as colder begins to overspread area with weak low transferring it's energy to rapidly intensifying nor'easter.  Heaviest snow for most will occur between about 2 & 8 this evening, & a little later for the Central Finger Lakes region.  The ride home late this afternoon into the early evening will be rough to say the least for all.  Snow will slowly lighten later this evening & transition to lake enhancement & lake effect later tonight into the start of Saturday.  The snow will also become fluffier tonight into the start of Saturday due to the colder air blowing in on gusty north winds.  The sun will return come Saturday afternoon, while New England will likely be topping off the historic snow totals out there, upwards of 2 or 3 feet in portions of Southern New England!!  Enjoy snow lovers & be careful if you have to head this afternoon or tonight!   

137 comments:

  1. Crazy looking radar signature over us.

    Andy

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  2. The rain melted the trace of snow I had. So minus a trace in Caledonia for the storm so far.

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  3. Does anyone know how the traffic is on 390?

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  4. Take a look http://www.trafficland.com/city/ROC/index.html

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  5. Snow covered but moving

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  6. Solid 8" by the Port of Rochester.

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  7. Anyone from Orleans county? What's happnin there?

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  8. Snowing hard now in Lyons. Just started about an hour ago.

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  9. West Henrietta. About 1". Snow is so full of water it is basically melting as it hits the ground.

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  10. I am probably wrong but when I look at the east coast radar, not local,the big LP which this one is tranfering to seems to be closer to the coast than it was predicted? I saw where it was predicted to be a bit more in the Atlantic. It seems like it is riding right up the coast and will give us wrap around/backend snow? I am probably wrong but just was wondering.

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  11. Low pressure East on the coast is about where it was forecast to be. NYC should go over to all snow there soon. We'll continue to get colder later this afternoon and evening with snow becoming "dry" tonight.

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  12. This is great. Now all we need is the 12z GFS to verify for the 17th and we will have a full scale blizzard for us as well. I can dream right?

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  13. When looking at the radar it appears to me that this will be gone in a few hours. Can not see it snowing hard until 8:00 like John said?

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  14. I was wondering about what happens here when the energy from the clipper transfers to the coastal storm? I need a quick Meteorology 101 lesson! Does the snow just turn off like a switch has been turned off?

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  15. Once we lose the lift, we lose the steady snow. That will begin to happen after 8 or 9 tonight. Looks like the 8-12" will be good for most.

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  16. Nothing sticking down here in Sparta! Zip, Zero, Ziltch...Nadda!!

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  17. So far, about 6" here in Sodus Pt. Just got back from Williamson, which had a little less, perhaps 4-5". Still coming down with decent intensity.

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  18. We have done well most of the snow season. Airport is around 40", I bet we have 60"+ here.

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  19. Snow numbers? Take a measurement and post them here! Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Frequent the blog often, enjoy the content and knowledge/opinions shared. Dont often see many postings from my area here in Manchester-Shortsville. I measure about 4.5" here. nice job Scott...right on the money AGAIN! -Tim C.

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  20. About 7" in Greece (dewey/stone area)

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  21. 3/4 of an inch measured on the picnic table. Pretty close to route 5

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  22. 8 inches on the spot, just south of Empire Blvd, Penfield/Webster area

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  23. 4" near the Byron/Stafford area.

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  24. 10 inches in Greece. Measured.

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  25. 7" in Newark Wayne County.....and the snow has let up a bit...but its still coming down....shoveled twice since I got home at 3:45pm....

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  26. The ruler I stuck in the ground here in northwest Henrietta showed me a depth of about 4.5 inches, but then I noticed that the airport measurement of 6.8 inches carried with it a depth substantially lower than that, probably due to melting from earlier. So I'll guesstimate around 7 inches for my backyard.

    Great forecast Scott/team, nailed it as usual :D

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  27. Hats off to the News 8 Weather Team. You guys nailed it once again!!

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  28. 11" in Charlotte near the lake. Measured.

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  29. 5-6 in NE Fairport at 560MSL as of 5pm.

    Andy

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  30. This is a pretty crappy spring we're having so far.

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  31. Dusting MAYBE in Sparta!

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  32. Now the wind is picking up.

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  33. Any storms the next week or two?

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  34. 4.5 in Gananda. NBD

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  35. Whats it look like for the rest of tonight Scott?

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  36. Looks like at least 8 inches for henrietta where I am right now! Wind really picking up and blowing snow around. Looks like another couple inches at least.

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  37. Now we are getting snow down here in Sparta!!! Coming at a good clip too.

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  38. I measured less than an inch in Livonia. :(

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  39. Located a mile from the lake in Ontario. Have to have close to a foot of snow here.

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  40. Hey Scott! Ran out and froze but got a measurement in Ontario north of 104, 11" and still coming down.

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  41. Still coming down at a good rate in NE Fairport.

    Andy

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  42. No storms projected for the few weeks this may be it for winter!

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    Replies
    1. This storm wasn't even thought of 4-5 days ago. So any proclamation like you've made just makes you an idiot. Thanks for sharing your delusion.

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    2. This shall be taken with a grain of salt, just last week there was no signs of any storms for 10 days and beyond....look at it out there now. Tell me that story about spring in February again??

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    3. You mean like how winter was declared over two weeks ago? Alright then Springstradamus.

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  43. About 3" in Wayland...still coming down at 9:30pm

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  44. Up to approximately 13" now

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  45. The GFS shows a big storm Thursday but way to far east but then an even bigger storm on 17th and 18th that, if verifies, could be a BIG one for us. Of course, that is over a week away.

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  46. KROC has reported at least light snow for 17 consecutive hours. I can't remember the last time I saw snow falling for this long of a period without stopping. Reading unconfirmed reports of almost a foot and a half in Irondequoit, about 9 inches at my house in Henrietta.

    The storm on Valentines Day should miss us by a lot, probably giving the southern Mid Atlantic region their first decent storm in quite awhile. Many models ARE showing a powerful storm near the east coast around President's Day, but that's too far out in time to even think about right now. If the models are still showing such a storm by Monday, and still showing it near the coast, then my interest will be piqued.

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  47. I have family that lives in Irondequoit and they have nothing near 18". I think that is a complete exageration. They say about 8".

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  48. About 6" in total in Macedon. There is a report out of CT that some areas have seen well over 40" of snow. WOW!!!!!

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  49. measured before I left for work just under 12" in Newark ny

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  50. Ooops. I should go outside before I give the snow total. We picked up another 6" of fluff last night bring my total to about 12" and still snowing. Great job channel 8. All the channels did well with this one. I tell you, coming home from work yesterday was such an unbeleivable beautiful sight with the snow stuck on the trees. Wow!!! How can anyone say they do not like snow. It is too bad it is going to melt so quickly next week with the rain and warm-up. We can enjoy it this weekend.

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  51. Feel good about this laast storm not an expert but did throw this one out there to watch early and felt 6-10 was a possibility. Now want to throw out there to keep a very watchful eye around the 18th time frame. There appears early agreement by many models that a monster storm will develop along the coast. Still way to early but certainly bears watching. The ingrediants are there for a BIG one! I am not an expert but that is how I see it as of now.

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    Replies
    1. I agree about watching this one...it looks absolutely monstrous. What do you mean about agreement? Are you talking ensembles or are you somehow getting Euro data that far out? I will say that the GFS has been fairly consistent thus far, I only wish it wasn't over a week out so I could feel more confident.

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    2. Nevermind my question - I have found the data. Google is an amazing thing.

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    3. ...and after looking at just about all of it...it's almost too good to be true. What a great setup if it verifies.

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  52. I wish it wasn't going to melt on Monday!!!

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  53. Another 5" in Fairport after 5 pm.

    Andy

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  54. 16" total, unofficially official here.

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  55. Big storm would be nice - but I would rather it brush us with 3-6" then drag down some cold air for 4-5 days afterwards.

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  56. I'm wondering about the airport numbers. I'm not too far from there and it still hasn't stopped snowing since yesterday morning. Light flakes are still coming down up here by Highland. I may have undershot with my 10.2" prediction.

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  57. I measured 15 inches in Greece, north of 104. Still snowing lightly.

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  58. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

    Anonymous February 5, 2013 at 2:58 PM
    "Actually it would be even better if both of us were wrong and we got more than 10 [inches], but that's getting into pure delusional fantasy land."

    Anonymous February 6, 2013 at 6:43 AM
    "This...just..I don't even...
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=189166
    I would NOT count on this happening AT ALL. I will eat my left arm if we get that much snow out of this."

    Welp...guess I'll need to adapt to life with only one arm...

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  59. Probably would taste better with a little Tabasco....

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  60. Doesn't look like much of a warm up for next week. Hopefully the rain on Monday is minimal and the snow pack doesn't get too consumed.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. It is supposed to be in the upper 30's to low 40's all week it looks like. MOnday it is supposed to rain and be in the 40's. The snowpack will go quickly.

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    2. There's so much water in this snowpack that a week of low 40s won't make it disappear completely.

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  61. I can't believe it is still snowing - a very pretty storm we have had!!!

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  62. New report puts KROC at 13.1 inches total. Seems like the lake effect behind the storm overachieved a bit and boosted our numbers. In Monroe County the max amount was 16 inches in Irondequoit, max in WNY was 18 inches in Gasport.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

    We are now 25.2 inches ahead of last season's pace, and just 8.9 shy of last season's overall total. With an active pattern coming up we stand a very good chance of passing last season before the month is over.

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  63. Boy, if that sroem verifies on the 17th and 18th we could be in for a BIG DADDY of a storm for us this time. I know things will change as they always do 7 days out but it will be fun to watch all week.

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    Replies
    1. If the storm verifies as is we won't see anything at all, nor will most people in the east. Last night most models had a storm along the coast, this afternoon they are much different even relative to each other. That said, living from model run to model run is no way to live, and there is still quite a bit of potential in the pattern evolving late next week. Once we get through Monday's garbage it's fair game for anyone (not everyone) in the eastern third of the nation.

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  64. See there have several posts about a big storm possibly the week of the 18th? Just wondering what this is all about. I see several different people have said something including Andrew. Is this really something that has legit potential to be epic?

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    Replies
    1. "Epic" isn't the word I would use. It COULD be that, in the same sense that one COULD flip a coin and land heads seven straight times. But the word I would use at this point is a resounding "maybe," especially with so much inconsistency in the model data. The good news right now is that there IS so much uncertainty that it leaves many possible scenarios on the table, ranging from the biggest storm in years to no storm at all.

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  65. Okay, I'm leaving Sunday morning (17th) to go down to Florida (car)! You guys have been talking about a POSSIBLE storm. If this storm was to hit would I get screwed trying to go to Florida? And anyone have any idea what models look more right than others, like is this a real possibility we get hammered? And if such a storm would to occur what are models saying(as to how much snow would we be getting from it)
    if anyone could answer these questions that would be awesome!
    Thanks,
    Mike

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  66. Mike there is no way to predict anything about a possible storm now 10 days away. A storm showed on I believe two runs of the GFS and Euro yesterday but looks different today. Not as good as yesterday but if a storm keeps showing the next few days then there woulde a chance it would evolve but where and how strong no one knows now.

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  67. Alright! I'll keep checking and seeing what everyone is saying about it over the next week! Thanks!

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  68. Another possible scenario some meteorologists are talking about for this storm...a very rare and highly unlikely one...is a triple phase. The storm we just had was a double phase. The last time a triple happened was March 13th, 1993. But again, it's a very rare and highly unlikely scenario, and amounts to nothing but hype at this point. Just wanted to mention that it's one of many possibilities, the vast majority of which are far less unlikely than this one.

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  69. Foreget about it. The models do not even show a storm any longer.

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  70. Based on what just transpired with the last very large storm, it seems like we shouldn't put too much faith in models beyond 4-5 days.

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  71. Got to agree with anon from 606 . You wont know much for a few days.

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  72. 12Z GFS not impressive at all with a storm so who knows just have to wait and see if anything comes about. All the models seemed to be pointing to something maybe big 48 hrs ago now not good. But that is why you can not model hug. This last one did not appear until 3 days before as a possibility to phase.

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  73. We're talking about something that would occur a week away, if at all. The last storm proved that the models have a tough time with phasing situations even 5 days out, so it isn't prudent right now to "forget about it." The important thing right now is that we'll have an amplified trough and pieces of energy riding the branches of the jet stream, both ingredients for large storms. We still need to see if those ingredients will come together properly. For the little its worth the 12z Euro and its ensembles have a storm near the coast, but phasing would occur too late for everyone except northern New England.

    Time will tell.

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  74. Stacey just facebooked we might be in for another winter blast next weekend. More details please, Stacey.

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    Replies
    1. I think she's referring to another arctic invasion with below average temperatures, along with some lake effect.

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  75. We are due for a triple phase storm.Very rare have not had one since Superstorm 93. Time to get one that polar arctic jet involved witht the northern/southern branches and lock together. We have to monitor this for the 18th or so time period. A long shot but you never know. Keep an eye on it that is how I see it.

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  76. Hey Andrew.. A lot of people on accuweather forms talking about it. Obviously way early, but lets see how the models look day to day....

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  77. Lets open up a triple phase topic board!!!!!

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  78. Really a long shot but certain positive ingrediants are there to at least have some thought about it. The two came together for "Nemo" now we need the two plus one ha ha. I was in Syracuse during the Superstorm of 1993. Nothing like it 42 inches of snow in 24 hours. I know Rochester got about 2 feet. It was amazing with unbelievable thundersnow. Numerous strikes while I was shoveling. Never saw it snow so hard for so long. Never see that again. Once in a lifetime.

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  79. when the weather channel actually did weather news....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44cHhoU0mwc

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  80. Only four triple phase storms have occurred in recent years: the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, the second Blizzard of 1966 (legendary storm in our region), the Great Blizzard of 1978, and the Superstorm of 1993. I see triple phase hype at least once every few years, so until some sort of model consensus evolves for such a scenario I'm going to take all of this with one fifth of a grain of salt. In the meantime there continues to be significant disagreement, and no indication of energies phasing soon enough for something substantial here. Still much too early for anything to be set in stone.

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  81. You are right Anonymous 6:03 just a dream because it has been 20 years since the Superstorm so figured maybe it was time.

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    Replies
    1. Right now it's just a dream, but there's always a chance of that dream becoming a reality. If it's worth anything, some NWS offices in the east are talking about the storm potential, but with much less...forceful wording...than the folks on the Accuweather forums are using. Time will tell.

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  82. I think NWS should put up warnings tonight...

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  83. For the triple phase Superstorm 2 coming in 8 days?

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  84. David warnings up for what tonight?

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  85. You two are being completely foolish. Anyone with a brain could tell you that the superstorm is coming in 9 days not 8. Expect widespread blizzard warnings from Key West up to Newfoundland by tomorrow evening. This storm will wipe out the yearly citrus crop, bury the Empire State Building under 107 feet of snow and lead to the extinction of the common loon. 53 states will be buried under multiple feet of snow. That's right, this storm will be so bad it will create 3 additional states just to accommodate all of the havoc it will wreak. And through all of it, Rochester will get occasional rain showers with highs in the low 40s.

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    Replies
    1. Your exactly right.... Your wrong about one thing.. highs in the mid 40's not low 40's

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    2. YOU DARE CHALLENGE MY SUPER ACCURATE KNOWLEDGE OF WEATHER KNOWLEDGE? NAYSAYER BEGONE!!

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    3. I think you left out SNOWTORNADO

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    4. Oh right of course. All of Memphis will be lain to ruin, rebuilt and lain to ruin again by a 40 mile wide snowtornado with wind speeds exceeding the speed of light. Anyone caught in its path will be literally transported back to the bronze ages. It will form localized black holes that will swallow entire communities in the blink of an eye, and lead to possible travel headaches.

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  86. So I should stay home or go to wegmans now?

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  87. Interesting talk out of the Philadelphia NWS for next weekends potential storm:

    NEXT WEEKEND...DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED. AM CONFIDENT THERE WILL
    BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HERE AND INITIALLY NOT
    SURE IF ITS A COASTAL OR INSIDE RUNNER. WHERE THE COASTAL STARTS
    AND WHETHER IT SCOOPS SOME GULF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES IS
    IMPORTANT. THINK IT WILL SCOOP SOME GULF AND SE USA MOISTURE AND
    WILL EVENTUALLY BE A STRONG STORM NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT COULD RUN
    TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR SNOW HERE EXCEPT AT THE TAIL END.

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  88. Im getting excited... Not gonna lie..

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    ReplyDelete
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    1. Who let the spammer back in?

      Delete
  90. I must be looking at the models wrong because I do not see anything on the models right now. What am I missing?

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    Replies
    1. You're missing the synoptic scale setup. We have a buckling of the jet stream and pieces of energy rounding what will be a deep trough for next weekend. What the models aren't doing is phasing those energies in time to produce a large storm for the east. Some don't even phase the energies at all. Keep in mind that the recent blizzard in New England didn't start showing up consistently on most models until 4 days out, and they frequently have trouble resolving potential phasing scenarios in the longer range. That said, unless we start seeing agreement for a large storm in our region, I absolutely refuse to get excited.

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  91. Ok. Thanks for the explanation. We will keep watchng and hopefully something shows up. The new NAM shows the Wednesday, Thursday storm much closer to us now but still a miss.

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  92. Stacey reported that we now are only a bit over 14" below average ytd.

    Andy

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  93. Several models are starting to show a storm in varying positions and at varying intensities. GFS has a weak storm out to sea, but it's a step forward from the scattered mess its last run had. UKMET has a 980 mb low just east of New England, while the CMC has a low tracking northeast across Pennsylvania and deepening to 975 mb over northwestern New England. H5 on the GFS is chomping at the bit to make a huge storm, we just need the phasing to occur. Again, the important thing at this range is that the pattern will be favorable for a storm.

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  94. I gotta be honest, I don't want snow this Friday-Monday, I'm supposed to go away snowmobiling, and if it snows...I'll be sitting right here.

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  95. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A POWERFUL STORM BUT, AT THIS POINT, TAKES IT TO FAR EAST. WE ARE ON THE FRINGE WITH EASTERN, NY GETTING BURIED. WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS WILL CHANGE SERVERAL TIMES BEFORE THE WEEKEND. GETTING VERY INTERESTING THOUGH.

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  96. IF THE CMC VERIFIES THAT COULD BE OUR STORM.

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    Replies
    1. Hey Buzz kill, calm down!

      Delete
  97. WHY ARE YOU YELLING

    I can't see the CMC verifying. We aren't going to see a storm deepen to 975 mb over Vermont, and that is a fact. Still, with the exception of the Euro, every major model is on board for a deep storm system to form. More storm potentials lurk beyond as well, but that's getting way ahead of myself.

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  98. I'm not good at model reading but isn't the GFS showing an east coast storm for Sunday and another one around the 21st?

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  99. I wonder if Scott or anyone on the News 8 Team, or any one on this blog can comment on what the rest of the Winter will bring. It seems according to other weather outlets, and recent models, that Spring will be slow to get here this year. According to other stations, the rest of this month into the middle of March will be cold and snowy. Some are actually saying that we will not have much of a Spring. That we will jump right into Summer. Any thoughts?

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  100. Not seeing any storm potential for next week? However spring temperatures are back this week finally.

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  101. Please people dont bite.

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  102. Feed facts, Starve a troll.

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  103. FACT: Models show a storm threat for the weekend.
    FACT: Winter-like temps will return later this week.
    FACT: All trolls weigh 400 lbs and live in their mama's basement

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  104. It was very interesting, how North and South this last storm was.

    In Avon, where I reside, it didn't start snowing until 2:30. It wasn't until after dark that it really snowed, and we ended up getting about 4 inches of fluffy (or if you are watching channel 10 - fluffy wuffy) snow. A lot of it is gone already this morning.

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    Replies
    1. "if you are watching channel 10"

      BLASPHEMY!

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    2. I'm not saying I watch 10 - but I have heard them use the expression "fluffy wuffy" to describe both clouds and snow.

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  105. Very interesting again about the possibility this weekend of a major storm. I know Scott does not follow model to model which is correct. But wondering what he and News 8 team think about the potential. It appears all the teleconnections are in place for a LARGE east coast storm. Certainly may not be for us but the big cities are in play depending on track. Wondering just what they fell even though it is still a week away.

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  106. Why don't these ever ride inland anymore so we get the BIG snows. They are always to far South and East.

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    Replies
    1. The path of least resistance is the surface of the ocean. Therefore, the vast majority of eastern storms track over the ocean.

      Delete
  107. It really cracked me up. OK, yes, we had a bit of weather this Friday. But it really wasn't a big deal overall - it just seemed like a lot because we haven't had much snow this season. Yet that channel that lies between 8 and 13 had their usual over-coverage - the grocery stores, the "live-car-cam" bit with Capt. Josh, etc. Oh, brother. You would have thought we had 3 feet of snow instead of some real winter weather.

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    Replies
    1. It kind of saddens me that all over upstate NY we have areas that get mountains upon mountains of snow every season, and at the same everyone freaks out about a garden variety storm that we get at least a few times every season. It's not just reserved to Rochester, this happens everywhere in the state. Except Buffalo, where people have cookouts in the wake of severe blizzards (see January 1985).

      Delete
  108. Another channel already states too far east and much much weaker than last weeks blizzard.

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    Replies
    1. "Another channel" must not be familiar with these things called "uncertainty" and "model spread."

      Delete
  109. Way to early to say anything. Remember this last blizzard did not pop up until 4 days before. No channel had us getting a foot of snow in some spots last Monday for Last Friday.

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