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Monday, February 11

Stiff Winds Develop Late Today - Tonight


Written by John DiPasquale:

After Friday & Saturday morning's snow here's the latest snowfall numbers for Rochester on top through midnight Sunday.  I don't expect much snow this week, though a storm will flirt with us a bit Wednesday night -Thursday morning.  At this time midweek storm affects the big cities with some wet snow, just what they need, but should leave us alone.  We'll keep an eye on it.  It does look like it's going to turn much colder late in the week into the weekend with at least some lake snow to accompany it, & POSSIBLY a developing storm nearby.  We'll see...The EURO doesn't have it now, & usually does a great job with storm predictions 4 to 6 days out.  We'll see if the EURO jumps on the bandwagon over the next day or so, & if it does it will be very interesting to see where it places it. 

As far as the winds go for late today through the start of Tuesday...they will crank up to between 20 & 35 with gusts possibly reaching 45 to 50 mph at times late today through tonight.  So hold on tight everyone!  Winds will slowly settle some Tuesday, & especially Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Have a great Monday bloggers!!


47 comments:

  1. The Euro continually showing a whole lotta nothing is starting to worry me a bit. Usually the idea it latches onto at this range is pretty close to what actually happens, even if all of the other models disagree. I'm hoping this time is different.

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  2. Yep concerning that Euro is not on board but believe the ensembles did show this storm? Could be wrong but Euro has been really good this far out so this last run is disappointing but have to wait and see what the next GFS shows too.

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  3. One comforting thought: In November the Euro was advertising MegaBomb 2012 with a widespread 2 foot snowfall across NY state. The other models kept saying NO and eventually the Euro caved. The reality was a weak southern slider not even worth jotting down on a used napkin. So it goes to show that even King Euro is not infallible.

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  4. When is the next Euro run?

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    Replies
    1. The next Euro run finishes around 2am.

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  5. 12z Euro ensemble mean isn't even remotely close to its operational counterpart. Resembles the 6z GFS.

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  6. Yep that is what I said about the ensemble and that is important so just have to see what the next few runs of the Euro, NAM and GFS say.

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  7. Ugh...

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    "WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM (AS PER THE GFS)...ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IN FACT...LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS."

    I'm really getting tired of reading things like this. Oh well, on to the next one...

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    1. I can't believe you would say this BS. They said the same thing last week at this time.

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    2. Sorry, their words not mine. If you have an issue with it then take it out with them. Either way their apparent certainty can't be overlooked. I have to say I agree with it, after seeing that we're still in a progressive pattern which argues against a track along or inside of the coast. This one is for either the coast or the fishes IMO. Personally I'm more interested in the storm potential for later next week, which would occur in a more favorable pattern for us should it occur at all.

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  8. Not gonna happen.

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    1. What exactly are you referring to? If it's the weekend storm then yes, that one just isn't our storm. If it's any of the storm potentials after that...well they might be a different story.

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  9. Some people are nuts yes snow is nice. But some of you act like if its not a huge storm the world is over. Its ok we will all survive and make it whether a monster storm or a few flakes fall.

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    1. Exactly, it's not the end of the world if a big storm doesn't pan out. Thing is, many of us are starving for a truly big storm since we haven't seen one in a long time. At the same time we watch seemingly everyone else get nailed repeatedly, especially the coast. Just ain't fair ya know :(

      Fortunately I haven't seen much blatant melodrama over the lack of big storms lately, so while your comment is spot on it doesn't really apply to the blog in more recent days.

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  10. I agree with Anon 9:20pm. I am craving for a BIG snowstorm. We have not see a truly blockbuster storm around here in many many years. The east coast always gets the BIG stroms while we are always spectators. We just cannot seem to get a storm to ride inland up the coast any more. They always slide to far south and east. Yes, we received over 12 inches from that last storm but it was hardly anything worth writing homje about. MOst of that came from lake effect as usual. SOme areas in CT picked up over 40" of snow with 10-15 ft drifts. Now that is a storm. 2 storms are coming up and we will miss both while the coast gets nailed again. It is tough always being the spectator. I know, I know, do I want some cheese with that wine. LOL.

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  11. Not ready to pack it in yet. If nothing is showing by Thursday then I will say it is over. Have a feeling this may come back on all models and move more westerly.

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  12. we have said it before and i will say it again better to be this far out and see nothing and then have it come back into models, rather than be this far out and look like we are in the sweet spot and then get dissapointed when it changes as the storm approaches. I'd rather be where we are now than have a huge storm showing this early. If we could just get one nice big storm where we all get 12+ of snow i would shut up and not complain the rest of the winter.

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  13. All over! Winter just had its last blast this past Friday. Spring has sprung so get ready and enjoy. No storm on Valentine's Day and this weekend. Time to move on and get those temperatures moving up.

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  14. Feed the facts. Starve a troll.

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  15. GFS has nothing again it is over. Trough in the east way to deep and all stroms going out to sea. There are your facts hammer head.

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  16. THIS storm is likely going out to sea. People along I-95 still have a chance, but I've given up on this one being anything of substance in our region. But this is FAR from winter's last hurrah...the pattern will remain active through next week with near/below normal temps prevailing. I'll be surprised if we don't at least get something decent out of it.

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    1. For the record, I'm referring to next week for the near/below normal temps, not this week.

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  17. I love when the "TROLL" calls for spring weather, it has brought nothing but cold and snow to the Hamlin area. Lately it has brought snow to the whole area. If TROLL forecasted snow and cold THEN I WOULD BE WORIED, spring would surely follow. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK TROLL, I will keep my plow truck on standby.

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  18. I had alot of snow balls in my yard and driveway in Brockport,and even in open fields near by and into the city. Did the wind blow up the snow and it rolled along and made snow balls?

    Also, hasn't the TROLL already been proven wrong by last weeks storm, why would anyone listen to him now?

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    Replies
    1. He was proven wrong when winter didn't end on January 10th like he said it would...

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  19. Next Tuesday and Wednesday looks better for us than the out-to-seaster ever did. Let us hope...

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  20. Every storm looks better than the previous one. Yet we never get anything. Keep hoping while spring just settles in nicely.

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    1. There's more than just hope in Jo-Sef's post. The trough for this particular storm will be too far east for our liking. However, next week will see troughing further west, which will put us closer to the mean storm track and give us a better shot at something decent. The jet stream should remain active for much of the forseeable future, so there's more reason than plain hope to believe that we'll see some more action here before the season is up.

      I feel the need to remind you that the first few weeks of spring can be quite snowy around here...

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  21. Scott said there might be something next week just now on the 4 o'clock news. :) Oh, and I remember my bridal shower in April, 1982. Had a hard time getting there cuz it was snowing so hard....Spring!

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  22. I think it is Andy who pointed out that snowfall deficiencies in Nov-Jan tend to be made up for in Feb-Mar. It appears as though the pattern is going to bear out that statistic.

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  23. Yep Chris it was me. I'd say based on historical statistics, that even with last Friday's snow, we are likely for at least 25"-40" more, and at worst 20".

    Andy

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    1. 40" is a reach, more like 25-35.

      Andy

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  24. I will believe it when I see it. I continuously hear talks of storms and we never get them.

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    Replies
    1. That's the price you pay for reading a blog full of weather enthusiasts. We like to talk about potential long range goodies that may or may not occur in reality.

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  25. I have been reading some of the NWS stations and there is some chatter about the CNC Canadian models that still show a major snowstorm for us, but the GFS and the Euro show nothing. Do we totally doscount the CNC model?

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    1. Considering it disagrees with the consensus of the other models by around 800 miles, and does the meteorologically impossible by deepening the storm to below 980 mb over a mountainous region, I'd say it's pretty safe to discount it. This is looking more and more like a storm for the fishes every hour, I've even been seeing residents of the coastal cities start to give up on it.

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  26. I'm liking the Jo-Sef storm idea for next week as the MJO goes into phase 4. Could we also get a old fashioned March "in like a lion out like a lamb" thing? I think the turn to spring will be much slower this year than last. I don't mean wall to wall winter..but winter type storm threats into mid March

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  27. No updates from the News 8 team in a while. Must be all quiet in the weather world. All models now have NO storm for the weekend anywhere.

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    1. CMC still has a big storm for our region, though at this point it's an outlier. Far from all quiet in the weather world, in fact during the afternoon broadcast Scott made mention of a storm potential for early next week, after an arctic blast with some lake effect this weekend. He also said to expect an active pattern through the end of the month.

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  28. Nothing on the models! All storms are gone or way way east. Get ready for a cold but quiet snow forecast the few weeks.

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    1. That's an uneducated and idiotic statement. No one knows whats going to happen more than 4-5 days down the road at most. Just look at the last storm that appeared about 3-4 days prior!

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    2. Not only that, but even 2 days out the last storm was thought to only give us a couple inches. It was only 12-18 hours prior that it turned to 8-12 inches and then yet we got 14.

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  29. I know it is early, but next weeks storm, that Scott talked about yesterday, does not look very impressive at all.

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  30. I am not ready to throw in the towel on the storm this Sunday/Monday yet. It may be to far east but I do believe there will be a big storm in the NE. If by tomorrow with the 12Z GFS run nothing is there then I agree. But I have a feeling a storm will reappear on the Euro and GFS runs starting tonight. Who knows not an expert but that is what I am thinking. Macedon for a storm next week it is way to early to make a judgement

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  31. I was just viewing some videos of the 1966 and 1977 blizzards, Wow. The houses, cars were completely buried from those storms. I have never and will probably never see storms like that again.

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    1. Blizzard of 77 was nothing special for the east side of Monroe county. March 93 and 99 circa March/April were far larger events.

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  32. Loved 66 and 77. 93 was pretty good. Don't remember 99. Home with four little kids. I probably blocked it ;)

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