More Melting in Short Term, but...
Written by John DiPasquale:
The weather will be quite boring through week's end with a little snow mixed with rain at times late Thursday into Friday. After the cold front passes later Friday into Friday night, though, it will turn much colder & a moist northwest flow should set up for much of this weekend which should yield some accumulating lake snows. Hard to say how much, but I would expect it to be somewhat snowy, blustery & cold, as highs will likely range from the upper teens to mid 20s through the weekend with the coldest day being Sunday.
Come next Tuesday a storm could very well move in, with snow/mix &/or rain. It will all depend on the track, as it always does. Many of the models have been siding on the warmer side with this system, but we'll see...Way to far out to have much confidence on track of that storm to this point. We'll see how it evolves over the next 3 or 4 days. Either way, it does look like it's going to be quite active around these parts through the end of the month. We'll see if this verifies.
Have a great night WNY!
wThe weather will be quite boring through week's end with a little snow mixed with rain at times late Thursday into Friday. After the cold front passes later Friday into Friday night, though, it will turn much colder & a moist northwest flow should set up for much of this weekend which should yield some accumulating lake snows. Hard to say how much, but I would expect it to be somewhat snowy, blustery & cold, as highs will likely range from the upper teens to mid 20s through the weekend with the coldest day being Sunday.
Come next Tuesday a storm could very well move in, with snow/mix &/or rain. It will all depend on the track, as it always does. Many of the models have been siding on the warmer side with this system, but we'll see...Way to far out to have much confidence on track of that storm to this point. We'll see how it evolves over the next 3 or 4 days. Either way, it does look like it's going to be quite active around these parts through the end of the month. We'll see if this verifies.
Have a great night WNY!
Looks like the towel is being thrown in for this weekend. However, next weekend although way early needs to be watched. The GFS has had numerous straight runs with an inland storm on the coast. The runs have hjad the storm in the exact place for these numerous runs pretty interesting.
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling snow for the Tuesday storm - or as Caledonia called it, the Jo-Sef storm...a much better name than Nemo. I'm looking forward to an interesting week next week, especially since I'm off work. Keep your fingers crossed everyone - even you Anonymous spring Harbinger.
ReplyDeleteVery quiet on this blog. But there is nothing to talk about no storms for the next few weeks everything east of us.
ReplyDeletelol keep dreaming, if anything the storms would miss west not east
DeleteTwo storms will be floating around next week.. the Andrew storm next weekend likely to be the stronger of the two. Where they end up is the question. (obviously)
ReplyDeleteThat is typical. Storms either going to far South and East and now West. Mama mia!!!!
ReplyDeleteStorms have been going west all season, where have you been? It's the Year of the Cutter.
Delete"Ample opportunity to reach 80 or 90 inches"
ReplyDelete- Scott Hetsko regarding the final seasonal snowfall tally, 10pm news
Both storms next week are cutting West of us which means rain, rain, rain.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what the snow totals have been so far this year south of the Thruway. It has to be about half of what North of the Thruway has seen whihc is most likely the case each year. Rochester is at 51". Last year at this time we had 42". Even with 2 mid-size storms this year we are almost equal to the pathetic winter of last year with only a few weeks left of winter. Next weeks storms look minor and West cutters so not much snow next week.
ReplyDeleteOur totals are boosted alot by lake effect which has.t favored roc this year
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on the the the Euro and GFS models today. Still not ready to say the Sunday/Monday storm is dead. Also way to early to say that storms are going west next week. There are going to be 3 potential opportunities coming up. Next Tuesday, Friday and following Monday the 25th time frame. Hang in there even one hitting postitive for snow lovers is a 33% chance.
ReplyDeleteNo offense Andrew but we have been hearing that all winter, wait until next week, wait until next, next month looks more snowy, wait until next month and it never happens. I am not saying that is coming from you, but we have been hearing this since December. Also John just said that the Tuesday-Wednesday minor event looks like rain. We will see if the models change, but I will not hold my breath for good old fashioned snowstorm this year.
ReplyDeleteno offense Macedon but, we have been hearing you whine, complain, and just be annoying all winter
DeleteSorry, Mike.
DeleteHave you been watching channel 10? This is their anthem. Wait until next week; it looks active. Wait until the middle of December. Wait until the end of January.
DeleteThe Tuesday system likely won't be all snow for us, but I don't think it will be a total washout either. Jury is still out on that one. I am 95 percent sure, however, that Anon from 5:08 will be wrong about the second storm. It will be physically impossible for that one to cut through the lakes, in fact every model that tries to do so falls short and shunts the storm east, primarily south of the lakes. Strong high pressure in southern Canada is what causes this, high pressure that tries to push south for the first system but doesn't quite make it in time. A similar thing happened with the post Christmas storm, except further east. Without the Canadian high pressure, that one would've moved through the eastern lakes. NWS DVN mentions that the GFS seems to place the storm too far north, which ties into what I've said.
ReplyDeleteMost people keep mentioning two storms - Andrew says three will be floating around and he is right. Three shots at a decent sized storm next week sounds good to me.
ReplyDeleteFor all you Snow Lovers. It appears according to climate models, that Winter will be hanging around at least into the 3rd week of March. No early Spring this year! Heck, who knows, the way the weather is around her, it might turn out to be a cold and wet summer. At least you snow lovers will enjoy that.
ReplyDeleteBut that's wrong. Because, you see, Spring has been here since New Year's Day. I even planted my flower garden...it's in full bloom right now.
DeleteYeah take that snow lovers. GROW UP LOSER.
DeleteThat post should be one higher sorry
Delete12z GFS continues to advertise a strong storm moving west to east across the country. If it verified there would be an incredible blizzard across Nebraska and Iowa, and a substantial storm in our region as well. I don't see it tracking quite as far north as the GFS depicts though.
ReplyDeleteI would not get your hopes up for next weeks storms. The first storm is almost a sure bet to track west of us. The GFS and the EURO are on the same page at it fits the typical track for that storm, early mix to rain back to snow showers and wind with cold to follow. I also see the second storm tracking the same. The earlier mention High Pressure to the north looks to shift east quickly. This would for sure help drive the storm west or over head. There might be a better chance for more mixed precipitation or ice with the second event at the end of next week, depending on whether that high pressure sets up to our east or our northeast.
DeleteAT this point, I DONT see a big SNOW STORM for western NY out of either of these two systems. I JUST DONT SEE IT HAPPENING. Time will tell it is a ways out yet.
Not very excited about this weekends lake effect here in Hamlin either, Not a good set up for my house to see big LES.
If you're basing all of that on the GFS then realize that it's on the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Both the Euro and the CMC (which recently received a major upgrade) have the storm tracking much further south, across Kansas into the lower Ohio Valley as opposed to a track from Iowa into lower Michigan. The GFS is so far north because it wants to shift the high pressure away quickly, whereas other models keep it in place. We're likely to enter a west based -NAO regime by late next week, which would argue against a track through the lakes. Personally I'm more concerned about too much suppression rather than a storm cutting west or north.
DeleteThe early week storm is probably a lost cause for the most part, but that doesn't mean we should stop tracking it as it WILL affect where the second one goes. Still lots of hair pulling to get through before any solid conclusions can be drawn.
I agree way to early to be set in stone. It WILL BE FUN to monitor the next few days model runs. IT IS AN ACTIVE PATERN with cold air to work with. STORM TRACK??? To BE CONTINUED!!!
DeleteMacedon-um what classifies as a good old fashioned snowstorm...March of 93, March of 99 x 2. To me the storm last Friday was a good old fashioned snowstorm with around 15" where I live. You my friend need to take your pills to become less depressed and negative. Annoying to say the least. That or just jump off your roof and see if you can fly. If you do that, let me know how that works out for you.
ReplyDeleteBlog Jester
I forgot to mention, I do agree with you that the second storm looks to be a monster. Both GFS and EURO have a strong storm exiting the south west. It looks to be a BLIZZARD for some one. If I lived in the Chicago area I would be VERY EXCITED at this point. I will continue to hope I am wrong and we get nailed, JUST DONT SEE IT HAPPENING.
ReplyDeleteLatest EURO Trends second storm MUCH further north closer the GFS track. VERY INTERESTING in one week. Midwest states get ready to shovel!!! Northeast???
ReplyDeleteThe Euro also has explosive redevelopment over New England. Northeast would need their shovels as well.
DeleteIt will be a West cutter and warm us up. All we will get is the cold front and limited lake effect. The same will happen with the storm after that.
ReplyDeleteYour certainty is adorable. Get back to us in 9 days champ.
DeleteRunning along little boy (anon 4:22)
DeleteScott, are you buying the GFS showing cold air quickly invading Tuesday/early Wednesday behind the system to give us some snow? GFS doesn't move that 5400 line north of us for long...
ReplyDeleteSomebody proclaimed last weekend that all the snow would be gone on Monday. Not even close.
ReplyDeleteMost of the viewing area South of the Thruway has nothing on the ground. I live North of the Thruway and I have spotty snow so yes most of it did melt.
ReplyDeleteNot on Monday. And most towns in Monroe still have snow.
DeleteThe "somebody" mentioned above said the snow would be gone by Monday. The snow wasn't gone on Monday. That was the point being made.
DeleteLatest Euro Weekly suggests blocking persisting through the end of the month, which would imply more snow chances for us. Bear in mind how shaky the Euro Weekly has been all season.
ReplyDeleteStorm on Tuesday looks weak and not much snow. The storm for next Friday-Saturday looks to be a double barreld low right now but not very impressive either.
ReplyDeleteNothing happening with storms next week. In fact by late next week a warm-up will take place. It will look like spring so sit back and enjoy because winter is over!
ReplyDeleteAccording to you Spring already started a month ago. How much snow and cold have we had since then.
DeleteFeed facts, Starve trolls.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what the weather is supposed to be like for the PGA in August?
ReplyDeleteI still think next weekend timeframe needs to be closely watched for our area. Not an expert but just what I am seeing.
ReplyDelete