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Monday, February 4

Lake Snows Near Lake Shore into Tonight

Written by John DiPasquale:

After 1 to 4" or so of lake fluff near the lake, & a little, if any, for the remainder of the viewing area this afternoon into tonight before it fizzles late tonight, the next weather will be a little clipper for Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  A quick coating to an inch or two is possible for all Tuesday night into the start of Wednesday, which will be followed by a little lake snow at times during the day Wednesday.

On Thursday, a bit more general snow will develop with another little weak system & warm front.  Behind Thursday & Thursday night's system, we will be brisk with maybe a little lake snow Friday, but strong high pressure & dry air will take over & should provide a real cold Friday night, & chilly, but sunny Saturday.  Milder flow will attempt to develop Sunday into Monday, but not so sure how mild it's going to get Sunday into Monday with strong, cold Canadian high to the north-northeast over the weekend.  It will warm up some Sunday into Monday, but the question is how much?  Probably upper 30s to mid 40s, but we'll see...

Have a nice night everyone!    

59 comments:

  1. Lundberg:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/thinking-spring/5561585

    "And I would in no way declare winter over, especially if you think snow when you hear the term winter! Remember, my initial thought from before Phil's prediction was that there was going to be a hangover effect of that stratospheric warming effect deep into February, if not into March! So, while I'm liking his forecast of an early spring, I'm not at all going to put my snow shovel away!"

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  2. This winter is done as far as any big snowstorms are concerned. There is not one in sight.

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    1. "This winter is done as far as any big snowstorms are concerned."

      And you know this how? There is no way of knowing right now, how can you possibly know? Look at the calendar, now look at me, now look at yourself now back to me. Your negativity is now diamonds.

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    2. I agree with Anon at 3:01pm. The pattern this winter is that there have been no storms except for that 1 exception in Mid- December. There is nothing that shows this will change.

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  3. The mets were all saying the Lake effect band would shift South and it did not. Why has it been so difficult for them to predict lake effect this year? It has really been bad sorry to say.

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  4. 40's next week. Goodbye winter, if you want to call it that.

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  5. Reporting about 8" of snow on the immediate lakeshore here. A mile inland, half of that. 5 miles to the south is Rt. 104, no snow fell there today. LES is amazing.

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  6. Anon 3:40 I know by looking at the current data and indices that project patterns. How do you know anything? I the troll have predicted spring will be early. Have you looked at the forecast? The next 10 days show no chance at any real snow. I also predicted this winter will be similar to last years in snowfall totals and still stand by that. In fact we may get less. What have you predicted or know? You throw out your dumb data and none of it is accurate. Come get on board like many of the rest and realize spring is coming and this winter has been horrible!

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  7. Keep preaching that spring is coming (we have all heard it for 6 weeks + now) and someday you will be right.....I can match you though. I predict that tax day is coming and it may be early. I also predict that someday I will pass on....hopefully that isn't early though. Your "prediction" is a lame one to say the least. BTW, it was friggin cold today.

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  8. I'm reasonably sure "spring" will have a more difficult time arriving this year than it did last year. I wouldn't be shocked if we get our largest snow storm of the year as we transition seasons. Personally, I'm done with winter.. it gave me nothing and I want nothing more from it. After our next warm up next week I do believe it's going to continue to torture me through early/mid March.

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  9. watches, warnings, not a flake fell here. This is a McDonald's winter--I'm Luvin' It!!!!!

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  10. Anon at 6:37...the index forecasts only go out to 2 weeks, we have more than 2 weeks of winter left. Sure the next 10 days don't indicate much action, but you're making the mistake of extrapolating that to include the rest of winter. Which, in our region, lasts until St. Patrick's Day. If you even bothered to look at all of the data you'd see the indications of a return to seasonably cold by the middle of the month, reflected in the 500 mb ensembles. You would ALSO see hints of blocking being established by then, which COULD support a stormier pattern. And if you bothered to read the VERY FIRST POST in this thread you'd see what Joe Lundberg, a forecaster who loves warmer weather, thinks will happen. Even the teleconnection indices aren't all that bad. One week (if that) of mild temperatures does not put the kibosh on winter when we're still in the thick of it calendar-wise.

    "You throw out your dumb data and none of it is accurate." I didn't even throw out ANY data until just now, and it all goes against the pervasive negativity on this blog. It doesn't indicate a sure-fire gangbuster pattern featuring multiple blizzards and a return to the Ice Age, but it certainly doesn't show a permanent end to winter either. Honestly all of the blatant pessimism in here is making this blog very unpleasant to be a part of. I'd be fine with people saying winter was over if that was the case FOR SURE, but that is demonstrably NOT the case FOR SURE.

    Soapbox time regarding the pervasive pessimism: I don't even see the point in having a negative attitude, I mean what benefit does it bring? Not being disappointed, is that it? That's just some stupid defense mechanism to keep you from being let down, and at the same time it keeps you from getting hopeful and excited about anything. It also destroys any shred of objectivity you might have had otherwise. You become blind to reality and only see the worst outcome possible, like some sort of bizarre reverse cherry picking. "Come get on board like many of the rest" why the heck should I? What reason is there to not have a little hope right now? Go ahead and be negative if you want, no one can stop you. But don't try to tell me that I should have the same attitude as you. I apologize for the melodramatic novel I'm spouting here, but I'm getting very tired of seeing posts from people who are oh-so-sure of winter's demise, while having absolutely no way of knowing for sure. I, for one, am NOT giving up on winter, seeing that it's only February freaking 4th and there is at least SOME reason for hope. If we do indeed get through the rest of calendar winter without much happening, then I will shrug my shoulders and move on with my life. But in the meantime I still have hope that we'll manage SOMETHING.

    tl;dr winter is still not over, if it is who cares it's only weather, negativity in the face of evidence is stupid. And I really need a hobby...

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    1. You definitely need something else to do or some Valium.

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  11. Whats tge deal for Thursday night Friday lots of snow anyone know?

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    1. Right now it looks like a 2-4 inch deal. Mixing issues possible in the southern tier.

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  12. Um no snow Mike? Not sure what you are talking about?

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  13. Much uncertainty regarding the storm that will develop off the coast at the end of this week. Hopefully, at the very least, some synoptic snow with lake enhancement. At this point, totals look minor. I personally hope we get slammed. Here's to an early spring....(middle finger).

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  14. Anon 1:40 again you are childish in fact maybe you are a child. You are such a wishcaster "Much uncertainty regarding the strom that will develop off the coast at the end of this week"? What are you talking about? There is certainty and at a minimum will be far east of us. Boston could get good snows but we will get no synoptic snow with lake enhancement. What do you look at to determine your dumb statements? Here to your ignorance...(class).

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    1. Different anon here. Try looking at some of the models, namely the GFS and Euro which both have a general moderate snowfall in our region. The indication is that a system will ride the northern branch of the jet stream and bring a 1 to 2 inch snowfall, then phase with a system off the mid atlantic coast and bring us another 1 to 2 inches. Not a huge deal and certainly not set in stone, but it's far different from your "no synoptic snow" idea and not even remotely close to wishcasting.

      I think he could've held off on the (middle finger) though...

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  15. Suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, Boston faces a potential blizzard threat on Friday. This is a perfect example of why giving up on storm chances for the rest of winter, due simply to the lack thereof on the models, is extremely unwise, as just a few days ago this threat was nowhere to be found. And even as recently as yesterday only the Euro was on board for anything even resembling a storm. Tricky phasing scenarios like these can result in such situations, where significant storm threats emerge from way out in left field.

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    1. WE DO NOT LIVE IN BOSTON

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  16. This could be a bigger deal than the Anonymous is saying. I think we are going to have a chance for maybe 6-10 inches from this storm. This is what I am seeing but I have been off lately and taking abuse for it so who knows. Also Anonymous 1:50 you are right we do not know the future for waether. This did just seem to pop up that is why Scott is the best he does not just look at the models he looks at all the weather dynamics/factors.

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    1. 6-10 inches seems too high at this point, but considering the way the model QPF has been trending it might not be so far fetched. Honestly it would be great if you were right and I was wrong. Actually it would be even better if both of us were wrong and we got more than 10, but that's getting into pure delusional fantasy land.

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    2. 2-3 will about do it for Western Ny. NBD for us.

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    3. 2-3 inches that is....

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  17. This is looking like it could be a monster storm if it verifys. Trending west a bit. The more that happens better for western ny. Right now Boston could get clobbered. But the BP on this is LOW!

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    1. 30+ inches of snow centered right over Boston on the newest Euro. 6+ across much of the Northeast including our region. Those numbers are probably substantially overdone, but if they verified it would be the largest single storm in Boston's history and a significant storm across the vast majority of the Northeast. I don't think any trend either direction by the coastal low would mean much of a difference for us, as any snow we get will come from the northern stream system and whatever energy it leaves behind once (read: if) it phases with the southern stream energy.

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  18. Wow, where is this "new" storm coming from. I thought early spring was just around the corner. Hopefully we get more snow! My snowblower is begging to be used again (hopefully again and again).

    GO WINTER GO!!

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  19. From the newest NWS discussion:

    "AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE"

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  20. This will be a Southern New england BIG storm. This will NOT be a big deal for Western, NY. We will mis out once again but we are all used to that.

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    1. We should still get at least a moderate snowfall out of it, be grateful for that. Not in the bulls eye but not entirely out of the action either. There's still some lingering doubt that this will be a big deal for anyone at all, since we're still 3 days out and there are a few factors that may work against phasing. And at least we're not in the southern mid atlantic region, which will likely be dealing with a torch and heavy rain.

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  21. And the it will warm up and rain early next week.

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  22. What looked like an extended mild spell not long ago now looks like just a few days of mild temps followed by a return to seasonable by next Tuesday. Blocking is still showing up in the various ensembles by mid month, and that storm around V-Day is appearing in the operational Euro at days 8 and 9. If there was ever a time to get ourselves a nice storm or two it's between the end of the warmup and the tail end of February, with the long awaited blocking finally showing up in the ensemble forecasts during the past few days. Uncertainty in details abounds, but as it stands old man winter isn't done with us yet.

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  23. Scott no big deal a few inches and that is done deal.com when he says that. Guess Beantown may get blasted good for them bad for us.

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    1. He said several inches were possible on the 5 and 6 broadcasts. Did he change his thinking since then? And Scott would be one of the first to tell you that it's NOT a done deal.

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  24. He said 2-4, 3-6 no big deal with big storm east.

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    1. So no changes from earlier. I'll take it. Can't fully discount the beefed up Euro though, it's been consistent in showing higher snow totals. Newest GFS has a 5-7 inch snowfall.

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  25. Will the snowmobile trails be able to open?

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  26. 2-4 will about do it. Wimpy!!!!As is usual we miss out. Some areas east of us could see more snow from this 1 storm than we have see all winter. Bring on spring please. 40's by Monday and Tuesday.

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    1. You're lucky I'm up late enough to form a rebuttal.

      We've seen over 3 feet of snow this winter. The MAXIMUM snowfall output on any model is around 30 inches, most models are indicating a 1 to 2 foot deal for many in southern New England. It is highly unlikely that anyone will receive more from this storm than we've gotten this season. Most models are also indicating a good deal more than the 2-4/3-5 inch forecast that Scott gave, with the northern stream low trending stronger. I believe our preliminary snowfall forecast will be bumped up a bit by tomorrow afternoon.

      I can't believe you have the gall to declare winter over (for the umpteenth time I assume), when this very storm went from nothing to potentially significant for a large region in just 36 hours. Point being, if left field surprises like this one can occur in such a short time span there is no reason to act so certain about even the next two weeks let alone the rest of winter. Next week's 40s will last only a few days according to every forecast out there, hardly a reason to cancel the rest of winter.

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  27. The fact is that this winter we are over 2ft below normal in snowfall, warmer than normal, even though it has been a much colder winter than last year. We had 1 storm back in Mid-december with nothing since then. We always miss out on the BIG snowstorms like the one coming up for New England. If some locations receive 30" of snow that is about 90% of the snowfall we have seen all year. People do not want to admitt that this winter is another BUST for snow lovers. We may not even hit 50" of snow. Our average is just over 100". HIstory proves that March can go either way in regards to snowfall. The past several years March has been low in snowfall. This storm on Thursday will be NO BIG DEAL for Rochester. 2-3" at best. The next storm will ride well to our West and give us Rain. It is not being negative to say that this winter is a bust, it is being realistic.

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    1. "even though it has been a much colder winter than last year."

      Actually it hasn't. We've just had longer stretches of cold but we've averaged about the same temperature thanks to some extreme warm surges.

      "We had 1 storm back in Mid-december with nothing since then."

      We had a moderate storm in mid December followed by a major storm after Christmas.

      "We always miss out on the BIG snowstorms like the one coming up for New England."

      January 1966, March 1993, January 1996, March 1999 (twice) and February 2007 all beg to disagree. There are others as well.

      People do not want to admitt (sic) that this winter is another BUST for snow lovers.

      So far. There's still plenty of time left and it hasn't been all bad unlike last year to this point.

      "We may not even hit 50" of snow."

      Are you honestly trying to tell me we won't get a measly 13 inches between now and St. Paddy's Day? Please son this is Rochester.

      "Our average is just over 100"."

      Actually it's just UNDER 100".

      "This storm on Thursday will be NO BIG DEAL for Rochester. 2-3" at best."

      The Euro, GFS, NAM, GGEM, CMC and JMA models as well as the NWS and HPC all disagree with that assessment.

      "It is not being negative to say that this winter is a bust, it is being realistic."

      I've just given several reasons why you are being negative and not realistic. We are far from done with winter, now strap yourself in and enjoy the rest of the ride.

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  28. The NWS now has Rochester in the 4-7 possibly higher amount region because of lake enhancement

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  29. I think we can not give up hope for this one. A jog west could give us higher totals. I was on the record as 6-10 yesterday and still think that will be the case. This is going to be a strong storm. That is how I see it but not an expert. I wish people like Weatherguy, David, Andy and Hamlin would weigh in on what they think. Also Jo-Sef they seem to have knowledge. The Anonymous people should just stop arguing. Would also love to hear from News 8

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    1. A jog west will do precisely jack diddly squat to help us. Even a 100 mile jog west, which won't happen since we're so close to the zero hour, would do nothing notable to help us. Our snow will come entirely from the northern stream energy, how much we get depends on where it tracks and how it interacts with the southern energy. Once phasing is complete we become spectators. I've gotta say though 6-10 inches suddenly doesn't seem like too crazy of an idea...still think it's on the high end though.

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  30. This...just..I don't even...

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=189166

    I would NOT count on this happening AT ALL. I will eat my left arm if we get that much snow out of this. Still, it serves to partially demonstrate that the most recent trend continues to be up with the snowfall amounts.

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  31. Going tofar east to impact us. NBD just a few inches.

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  32. I really dont have an opinion on this storm. Seems to have come out of nowhere... Ill be interested in what Scott has to say about it... Looks like everyone is just waiting to see what is going to happen...

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  33. Andrew.... Maybe lake enhancement behind the storm once it transfers energy to coast? These storms sometimes can surprise us......

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  34. Even Channel 10 is not predicting the end of the world on this one... yet... just saying it will be a happy-dappy winter sports weekend...

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  35. NWS/NOAA for dummies is showing a mix on Friday with "1/4 - 1/2" inch of new precip. possible. Maybe freezing drizzle...

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  36. That is what I am thinkng David. That is why I felt 6-10 inches possible because of lake enhancement. Depends if the storms intensity is closer the the Euro or GFS model? Euro much stronger with more precipitation and winds.

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  37. I've been out of the loop for a while so I'm just catching up on things. It's good to see something on the horizon but even better to see the blocking has finally set up. Our chances for a decent storm are probably the best they've been all season (I'm talking in general, not about Friday). Of course warmups here and there will destroy pretty much any snow-pack we might develop - but for those of us who love weather it's a small price to pay for a big storm...now on to Friday. It's definitely a challenging forecast. The two elements working against us aside from the storm track in general as I see it are warm air advection and dry-slotting. There's no way to tell yet how/when everything will phase together and that will play a huge role in our snow totals. I think a few inches of snow is realistic, with the possibility of up to 6in for us. Freezing precip working in Friday afternoon is fairly likely but it will be mostly snow here, just not as much as some of us would like. I haven't looked into the setup for les or enhancement but have just taken a cursory glance at some aspects (msl/850mb temps) of the latest runs - so it's possible that would bump my snow totals up but probably not by much. Also, my trip was awesome with very little snow and amazing views from the great range on Sunday.

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  38. Scott said last night this was a 2-4 or maybe 3-6 inch snowfall and he was pretty certain about his numbers. I think he knows more than Andrew and Dave on this blog.

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  39. No big deal for Rochester. 2-3 inches at most.

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  40. My guess is the the NWS will put up winter weather advisories this afternoon with 2-4 inches possible. Winter storm watches will go up from Syracuse south and East.

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  41. The trend can be your friend and this has been trending west.

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  42. As I've said before, I'm not a model reader, and unless you are a trained weather professional, it's a display of ignorance to profess what is or isn't going to happen more than several days down the road.

    I cringe when I see people here say "no big storms in sight for weeks" because it's utter nonsense.

    As for statistics, I'm comfortable with that. All I know is that when we've been well below average for snow for Nov-Jan, that we've always ended up with more snow in Feb-Mar than we had the previous three months. On average it's been 48% more snow.

    There is still a lot of winter left, and lots of time to keep that statistical trend going.

    Andy

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  43. Does News 8 Weather Team ever come on here anymore??

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