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Friday, February 1

Typical Winter Feel & Look this Weekend

Written by John DiPasquale:

After another coating to an inch or two of lake snow Friday afternoon for most, a brief round of lake snow will likely come through this evening after 7 for most with a quick 1 to as much as 3 or 4" around & north of the Thruway.  The highest totals will be found lakeside.  A dusting to an inch or two is possible across the Finger Lakes around & south of Routes 5 & 20.  Southern Orleans, & Genesee counties will likely see the most snow tonight early & again late, as Lake Erie gets in on the act late tonight into Saturday.  Minor accumulations will occur for most Saturday, but across Genesee, & Southern Orleans several inches could very well pile up.

A clipper will deliver everyone a little, mainly light, snow later Saturday into Saturday evening, which will be quickly followed by a slightly stronger clipper Super Bowl Sunday.  Sunday's clipper will drop a light accumulation for all, likely followed by some lake snows Sunday night into Monday.

Late Tuesday into Tuesday night another clipper will slide south & attempt to throw a touch more light snow at us.  Monday through Wednesday look to remain unseasonably cold with highs mainly in the upper teens to mid 20s.  Sorry snow lovers, no big storms in the near future.  Late next week's looks like a warm one now, but maybe that will change.  Stay tuned. 

Have a great weekend & stay warm everyone! 

 

59 comments:

  1. Overwhelming wave of baseless negativity in 3...2...1...

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  2. Ha ha ha not negativity here. Just old fashion spring excitement with what is coming warm weather next week and weekend. Please will all you bloggers say it with me "Winter is over, winter is over, winter is over". Also the anon troll is a genius and perhaps instead of him being insulted he should be commended. Granted it may be pushing a tad with the temps (temps have not been extraordinary cold) but for the most part it is right on about snowfall. It predicted less snowfall than last year and it may just be right?

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    Replies
    1. No, it's just doing a very poor job masquerading as someone else. Give it a rest you're not fooling anyone.

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  3. John, Please do something about the spamming trolls that add nothing to the conversation of weather.

    Can you disallow anonymous posters and/or post the authors IP address? The childish and taunting behavior of some hiding behind anonymity is ruining this otherwise nice blog.

    Thanks
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Someone would have to hack the blog software and remove the Anonymous option. Or completely new software would have to be installed. Either way it isn't as simple as a few button presses. Unless you want John here clicking the delete button 24/7.

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    2. Not sure why it's so hard to disallow anonymous posters? Are you familiar with this software?

      Andy

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    3. I'm not familiar with this specific software. However, it's highly unlikely that the drop down menu for post names includes a function on the admin side to add or remove options, so if one wanted to do that they would have to decompile the software and alter the resulting source code to reflect the changes they want to make. Not only is that not guaranteed to produce the intended result, it is very much illegal unless the software's copyright holder grants permission. I'm pretty sure this website's admins and/or Channel 8 don't want to break any laws or deal with legal issues just to keep trolls away, so the only other options are either different software or a full time dedicated moderation team.

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  4. This blog is the best part of my day! It is hilarious....Although the people talking about spring the last two months are a bit, er ok, way over the top. Nevertheless it is entertaining. I keep peeing in my depends....

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    Replies
    1. Which is precisely why things need to change around here. This blog has become a joke it seems. Shame, there are a number of well informed people here who actually bother to contribute useful posts.

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  5. Our friends in Buffalo now have a LES Warning for 6-12 inches during tomorrow. So jealous.

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  6. They deserve it. They are in more of a snow drought than us. It looks like a BIG warmup at the end of next week again.

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    Replies
    1. Above average temps? Yes. BIG warmup? No, and certainly not as pronounced as the one we just had. Looks more like upper 30s to maybe low 40s for several days before a return to more seasonable temps by mid month. I can see a more volatile pattern setting up by then with MAYBE some decent snowstorm chances...MAYBE. Not an ideal setup but the POTENTIAL is there.

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  7. Only had about an inch in Macedon today. Very dissappointing. I think I am ready for baseball to start.

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    Replies
    1. Exactly get the baseball gear out because winter is over time for spring...lol just kidding. We've got a long way to go before we have baseball weather, and I feel like mid month may bring us some wintry goodies.

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  8. Great to see Buffalo metro under LES warning for 6-12 inches of snow and our metro gets 2.

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    Replies
    1. Better them, or anyone for that matter, than us.

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  9. Ugh they're getting utterly destroyed by lake snow right now. So, so jealous.

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  10. Buffalo will surpass us in the SNOWFALL DERBY now. They will get a ft or more today. As PATHETIC as our snow has been over the past 2 years I feel bad for the big cities of the northeast that have seen virtually no snow over the past 2 years. Areas in the South have seen more snow than NYC, PHIL and Boston. Where are the Noreasters????? Where are the storms????? It is unreal.

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  11. Looks like a boring week ahead. No storms, minor very weak clippers and then some warming. No storms in sight. Everyone is talking about an early spring and March and April being very warm. Our window for snow is shrinking quickly. With only 35 inches so far we are 24" below last year. It might be very tough to get even close to last years snowless winter. This could be one of the least snowiest winters in my lifetime. We will see.

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    Replies
    1. Oh my God you are tiring.

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    2. Oh my God stay off this blog!!!!

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  12. Check out the weather cams in Buffalo. http://www.wgrz.com/travel/traffic/corridors.aspx?filter=190

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  13. Newest NAEFS shows the positive temp anomalies in the 8-14 day period weakening and progressing further out of the East. This winter COULD be less snowy than last season, in the same sense that the Bills COULD have a winless season (read: possible, but highly unlikely). At this point I'm sticking with probability and history (read again: more snow in February and March than we had in December and January, or at least more storm activity).

    My dad in B-lo is reporting around 9 inches of snow so far. That band across Niagara County looks mighty impressive, and as it drops south during the afternoon it should push my dad's house over a foot. As I sit here typing and getting this news I peek out the window at my barely-grass-covering blanket with a look of shame and disgust. But at least it's better than cold rain and sloppy grass.

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    Replies
    1. I think it's only the EURO ensembles being stubborn about insisting on a warm 2nd half.

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  14. I see Phil was right with me! Just like me he predicted an early spring. Way to go Phil!

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  15. There you go, you have 2 things in common with Phil. The second one being Phil's and your IQ. Smell would be 3 but I think he probably smells better than you.

    Blog Jester

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  16. I see ol' Punxsy Phil has predicted an early spring. He comically predicted a long winter last season, and has a sparkling 39% accuracy rate. You're actually better off going AGAINST Phil's predictions.

    Watch the period around Valentine's Day for a potential eastern storm. Winter wasn't over when the blog troll first declared it so four weeks ago, and it still isn't.

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  17. We always have 6 more weeks of winter regardless of what the rat named Phil says.

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    Replies
    1. 4 if you're a meteorologist. Meteorological seasons are offset by a few weeks from calendar seasons.

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  18. If it's cold and/or snows its still winter. There are always 6 weeks of winter remaining on Feb 2nd in Western ny.

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  19. Funny how anon 2:08 can say watch a period 2 weeks away and no else can give a future prediction like an early spring. He must have that real future seeing crystal ball. He is a moron!

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    Replies
    1. The difference is that the eastern storm potential is based on actual data (MJO entering Phase 1, potential for -NAO blocking, storm showing up in models), while your early spring predictions are based on wishful thinking and a glorified rat. Another difference: the storm potential is being touted as speculation, not just by me but by everyone else. You are parading around like you KNOW we'll have an early spring (which you've been doing tirelessly for a month straight, makes me admire your dedication to a fruitless cause), while at the same time taunting anyone who disagrees with you. Maybe you wouldn't receive so much grief if you didn't declare victory long before the game is over.

      Be careful when throwing around terms like "moron." You don't want to be the pot calling the kettle black...

      Delete
  20. Spotter reports for the lake effect event to our west:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

    Now where's that person who kept yammering on about lake effect only impacting "the very few"...

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  21. Well this is unexpected:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch

    This is a 104 and north deal with the wind being more westerly, should keep most of us out of the lake snow entirely.

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  22. I'm north of 104!

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  23. At least they are not making that inaccurate statement that north of the thruway is in the watch. They got sensible and realized it will impact about 100 people.

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    Replies
    1. You mean like the band yesterday that screwed with the morning commute across all of metro Rochester? Get over yourself, lake effect isn't reserved for farm country.

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  24. Happy trollanon day! Looking like we could get some more snow tomorrow night, that would be awesome. Hopefully it makes it south of 104.

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  25. You never know about the LES and where it could shift. It does not mean that the city could not get hit with some significant snow. I wonder what Scott thinks but it appears he is done posting because of all the negativity.

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  26. Come on where are all the knowledgable weather people on here. Do not let the troll ruin it. Is it really true that nothing is showing on the models at all for a future winter storm?

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    Replies
    1. Not true at all. There is a rather sizable storm showing up in the long range on the latest GFS, but considering how far out in time it is there's no reason to take it seriously. There's been rumblings about an eastern storm potential near Valentine's Day (the same one showing up on the GFS), but it's nothing more than just speculation at this point. Nothing to take seriously right now.

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    2. NWS has us painted in pretty dark brown for mid Feb so they are pretty confident of a substantial mid month warming trend. If there's a storm it should be rain---hopefully.

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  27. Was watching the weather channel last night and they all agree an early spring will happen this year. No, not because of the rodent. They are saying March and April will be above normal temps and little snowfall across the country. If this is true we may have only 25 more dyas of snow and cold and add to our pitiful 35 inches of snow we have had so far.

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  28. Any updates on the LES watch for Monroe County? Is the thinking still north of 104 is where the big snow falls? Frustrating that all the negaqtivity on here has ran the mets off the blog. Scott use to post on here now we get nothing. I have been trying to figure out the data/factors for big LES that would have led to a watch but do not see it. Hoping the knowledgable people like Davie, Weatherguy, Andy, Hamlin weigh in on trhe potential?

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  29. It will not be a big deal for Rochester. A few inches at most. North of 104 will see about 2-4. NBD

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  30. Thanks I felt that way was just wondering why a watch was issued.

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  31. It is now just an advisory which proves that the NWS thinks it will not be a big deal.

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  32. Interesting Syracuse now has a LES warning from tonight through Tuesday for the city and north.

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  33. Sal, there isn't anyone who knows how much LES or who will get it. I just plowed snow all day. We had anywhere from nothing on the south side of town to a FOOT of snow on the northwest corner of town. There was not even a mention of it in the forecast. LES IS UNFORECASTABLE!!!!!! Don't let anyone tell you different.

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  34. Anyone who wants to use the CPC anomaly maps to argue for warmth OR cold needs to keep in mind that the maps issued on weekends are computer generated, and aren't nearly as reliable as the forecaster-drawn maps issued during weekdays. They also represent a MEAN, and don't reflect any brief variations from the mean that may occur.

    So for the little it's worth, the most recent CPC maps show a strong probability of above average temps in the 6-10 day period (that doesn't necessarily translate to well above average). HOWEVER, the 8-14 day map reflects an eastward progression of the above normal anomalies, and lines up pretty well with the output of the NAEFS and the projected phase of the MJO. The theme appears to be this: warmer than normal starting next weekend for several days, followed by a return to near normal close to the middle of the month. Blocking is showing up by then in the ensembles which is encouraging for snow lovers, though with the coldest air moving back over to the eastern hemisphere don't expect any cold departures like the ones we saw a week ago. I won't even bother with March since we're not even three days into February, all I will say about TWC's outlook is to take it with a couple tiny grains of salt.

    Almost Superbowl time. Hoping for RayRay's last ride to end at the Lombardi Trophy.

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    Replies
    1. I did not know that about the weekday vs weekend CPC maps. Thanks.

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  35. Even the ground hog is on board-- think spring!!!

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    1. 39% accuracy rate. I think I'll stick to forecasts from knowledgeable humans. Spring isn't even on my mind right now with it still being the dead of winter.

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  36. Got say and I am not negative but boy it has been a long stretch without any real storm threat. The next 10 days look like no threat either kind of amazing.

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  37. Wimpy wimpy winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Bring on spring and baseball. We can only hope for a better winter next year for snow lovers.

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  38. The lack of storms can be attributed to the lack of blocking near Greenland. No Greenland block = troughs too far east = storm track originating from dry continental air = no decent storms. There are hints that this may change around the middle of the month, so don't dust off the baseball gear just yet.

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  39. The warmup looks really wimpy on the 0z GFS.

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  40. Once again this lake effect band hits Orleans county but does not want to come south into Monroe and wayne. What is up with that?

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