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Monday, October 14

Mild Start to Week, but More Typical Finish

Written by John DiPasquale:

What a weekend it was here in Rochester & WNY with sun and daytime highs in the 70s!  Hope you enjoyed it!  The start of this week will be cooler, but likely warm back up to near 70 for Tuesday with some more sun developing Monday afternoon & continuing to shine for awhile Tuesday before more clouds roll in ahead of a season changing cold front.  This front will blow through Wednesday with some rain/storm & wind.  Behind the front, it will turn much cooler late Wednesday & Wednesday night with temperatures dropping into the 40s Wednesday night.  On Thursday, brisk winds will blow out of the west-northwest with lots of clouds & a few lake effect rain showers.  Highs will likely struggle to make the mid 50s, which will likely make it the first below average temperature day we've felt in a good 3 weeks!!

Friday looks pretty quiet right now with some intervals of sun followed by another cold front & a scattering of showers for the weekend!  Highs for the weekend will range from about 50 to 55 the way it looks now.  There's even potential for the first flakes of the season over the high terrain this weekend.  Stay tuned for updates through the week.      

Have a great day WNY!


  1. It looks a stronger cold front will hit sometime next week with even colder air.

  2. Second half of month likely also to see first flakes of the season in parts of WNY/CNY.

  3. Good, it's about time we saw the first flakes on schedule rather than waiting until Thanksgiving.

  4. yahooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. If models hold true, looks like everyone will definitely see some flakes next week. Might even stick in a few locations...

  6. Any winter forecast for Rochester yet?

    1. Not specifically for Rochester, but the forecasts I've seen so far would give us a mild December and early January transitioning to cold the rest of the winter. Snowfall is much tougher to predict, but chances are that a temperature progression like that would leave us with near average snowfall. Remember though, seasonal forecasts aren't much better than a shot in the dark. '10-'11 was supposed to be mild and snowless while '11-'12 was supposed to be frigid and snowy. Neither of those predictions could've been more wrong.

  7. Chance of snow showers mixing with rain showers has been introduced into the NWS forecast for next Thursday night.

  8. Snow showers will be in the higher elevations, not for Rochester. It will be the coldest air of the season though. Maybe the end of the growing season with a freeze.

  9. Any accumulating snow will probably be limited to the higher elevations. IMHO, everyone who isn't north of 104 will have a shot at wet flakes for at least a brief period either Thursday night or Friday night. Temps look supportive of that, we just need any wandering lake effect bands to be in the right place at the right time.


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