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Monday, October 7

October Feel Returns Today into Tuesday

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a wild Monday with a warm, summery start followed by a windy, much colder later morning & afternoon!  Temperatures went from the low to mid 70s to the 50s for the afternoon with a gusty west wind making it feel more like the upper 40s to low 50s for Monday afternoon!  A steady soaking rain that developed during the morning is also tapering off during the midday & first part of the afternoon today.  A tornado watch was issued across Yates, Seneca & counties east of there through CNY was dropped for the majority as of noon today, but portions of CNY still have the tornado watch through the afternoon.  Intervals of sun will develop this afternoon & the weather will be mainly dry tonight & looks really good albeit cool for our Tuesday.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 60s, but recover nicely Wednesday after a chilly start into the 65 to 70 degree range with tons of sun! 

More clouds will probably spill in Thursday with a coastal low, but it appears most if not all the rain will stay away, as highs will once again be in the 60s.  Come Friday & the weekend it looks like more sun will return as high pressure settles back with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70 during the stretch! 


  1. No killing frost in sight? I have trees that have lost all their leafs and I have others that are still entirely green. Not many have had much color.

  2. Yeah, the colors seem blah so far this year.

  3. The NWS came out with a preliminary look at the winter season. For snow lovers it looks promising.

  4. I don't trust anything with the word "preliminary" tacked onto it. Remember the preliminary outlooks for the winter of 2011-2012? Basically all of them advertised a cold and snowy winter, and we all remember what actually happened (or in my case, repressed what actually happened). I prefer to wait until Thanksgiving and then pray to whatever god there might be that we get smacked by some big time snows.

    I've been seeing the same potent great lakes storm show up on three different models every run for the past 2 days. Keep an eye on it, it might deliver some interesting fall-type weather (i.e. rain and wind) within the next 7 or 8 days, depending of course on where it tracks and how strong it gets, and if it even happens at all (considering the small semblance of model consistency I tend to believe it will).

  5. AccuWeather's preliminary winter outlook has been issued. It's not exactly favorable, with much of winter's first half being a wash. Quite a bit different from the NWS preliminary outlook. All the more reason to not trust seasonal forecasts from this time range. The only thing I dislike more than the prediction for a mild first half is the certainty expressed in that regard, specifically with this statement taken from it:

    "Winter weather lovers will have to be patient this year, as the start of the season in the East certainly won't pack a punch in terms of cold or snowfall."

    IMHO, no one, not even a long range expert, should ever in a million years express such certainty over a seasonal forecast from two months out. Several variables which can only be reliably predicted a few weeks in advance could throw a wrench into the whole thing. I think Paul Pastelok (the person who made this forecast and several others over the past few years) has been too quick to forget how badly he blew the forecast for the 2011-2012 season (most other forecasts for that winter were busts as well). I don't necessarily disagree with the forecast, my main issue is with the expression of certainty.

  6. After everyone dropped the ball on the 2011-2012 winter, I take all long range predictions with a whole shaker of salt. There are just way too many variables! Interesting system coming into play later next week though. Models are hinting at the possibility of lake effect SNOW by next weekend...

  7. I enjoy the entertainment value of long range forecasts. I also enjoy the methods they use to try to figure it out. I would never bet my life savings on one, however.

  8. It does look to get more interesting by next weekend and beyond. Trough in the East with much colder air.

  9. I'm hoping that if a trough actually occurs it doesn't stick around for too long. No need to sap valuable heat energy from the lake so early in the season. I'm sure most of us would prefer a warm lake until early December when real arctic air starts to enter the picture, then we can get a legitimate chance of major lake effect. That said, I'm also hoping that whatever chill we do get is accompanied by snowfall, I'm getting tired of waiting until after Thanksgiving for the first flakes (which normally occur during late October).

    00z GFS goes off the deep end with the cold late in the month. I don't think it'll get quite that cold, but we look to be in for more frequent below normal temps than we've seen recently, along with more frequent precipitation. I think some flakes are also a possibility depending on overnight temps and timing of features. Things are indeed getting more interesting.

    1. Any snow in October or November is a waste of cold air. It doesn't stick around and snow quality is poor.

      Loving the current fall weather and I won't mind if it hangs around till late November. Then a release of pent up cold air for a snowy December - March... A guy can wish...


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