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Monday, November 25

10 P.M. UPDATE MONDAY NIGHT

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

New data coming in has me convinced that my numbers are probably too high for areas South and East of Rochester in total.  I think I was a little punchy or rusty earlier in the day.  Below is the forecast for temperature, wind and pressure at 850 mb or approximately 5,000 feet above sea level.  Whenever an 850 low is within 50 miles of our area, mixed weather MUST occur.  Too much warm air around.  Rochester may see a few hours of a mix before changing back to all snow on Wednesday.

Amounts remain significant so please don't scream BUST!  It's not a bust but an adjustment and we'll adjust again tomorrow.  Rochester still likely to get 8-12" with localized amounts of 13" or 14" possible.  More like 4-8 for the Finger Lakes region.  

FUTURE FORECAST SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY




16 comments:

  1. Thanks Scott. No matter what happens this will be the snowiest November we have seen in a long time and we will have a white Thanksgiving. Hopefully this is a sign of the winter to come where we actually get storms. It looks very active for the first few weeks of December as well.

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  2. It is amazing that this late in the game the NWS out of Buffalo and Syracuse cannot decide what to do with Central NY and Eastern Wayne county. They are still under watches. What are they waiting for. The storms starts in 12-15 hours.

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  3. Thanks Scott! In response to snowdog it can be diffficult with these storms where mixed precip and lake enhancement are both key factors. Even by looking at Scott's snowmap and the 00z nam image above you can see how variable a forecast can be within 15-20 miles. Invariably you will get mets who nail it and those who don't, but the data can only give you so much to work with. I don't know what the process is like at the NWS but you can imagine that forecasting this type of storm occurring on the biggest travel day of the year is a daunting task to say the least. I haven't looked at any data since this morning so I can't offer my opinion any further than previously stated but from what I saw before I think Scott is somewhere between conservative and right on the money. I'm about to check it out and hit the sack. 'Night bloggers, enjoy the weather and be safe this week :) Thanks again News 8 for being the best

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  4. This storm will not be a big deal. 4-8 inches and over 2 days. That is great because many have to travel.

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  5. The storm on radar looks very disorganized and broken up. It also appears to be moving more easterly. This will be a bust for us with down grades coming this afternoon.

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    1. Your predictions are worthless unless you put your name to them.

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  6. We can assume it's the same person who said the storm wouldn't even happen because climatology said it wouldn't.

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  7. What do you think about Western Monroe, Orleans county?

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  8. 12Z NAM run doesn't look good. Much weaker and slightly east. This would crush our high end snow totals in western NY. I think we should get ready for some disappointment. I would like to see the 12Z GFS but I will say 4-5 inches might be it in Monroe and Orleans.

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    1. I think you may be jumping the gun - don't forget we have the lake as well. I could be wrong but I would not be surprised to see 8+ by noon on Thanksgiving.

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  9. Doesn't slightly east also help insure we will reduce our mixed precip as well? Also agree with Jo-sef, there is a lake component potential that should be considered. Although that usually is a wildcard.

    Andy

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  10. The problem with the 12Z NAM solution the low is not going to intensify quick enough and tracking slightly northeast instead of north from Albany to Vermont. This slight track change and intensity difference will really limit lake enhancement. It also brings the bulk of the secondary moisture well east of our area. The lake response will be more typical lake effect not LAKE ENHANCEMENT. We all know how that can workout.

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  11. Thank-you Hamlin someone is listening. Look at the radar going more east and certainly not that strong. Transfer storms are almost always a bust. 4-6 inches tops for the whole storm.

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  12. Scott was definitely wavering on this storm last night. You could tell he had some doubts about the strength/intensity of the storm and certainly the track.

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  13. I wasn't so called listening to you at all. I don't care about the radar at this point. This is a 2 part storm. The moisture is coming north with part one of the storm on schedule. It is the second more tricky part of the storm that I can see NOT panning out. EXACT track and intensity are key and the NAM has bailed out on its earlier forecast. The GFS MIGHT finally have it. It looks to me 8 inches will be the EXCEPTION not the RULE. I would say 4-5 inches with localized lake snows added in. WHO KHOWS I SURE DONT!!!

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  14. Ok I was right. You do not have to get angry. Like I said 2 part transfer storms rarely pan out.

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