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Monday, November 4

A Nice Warm Up on Tap!





Written by John DiPasquale:

After a chilly start to the week temperatures will climb to more seasonable levels for Tuesday compliments of a southerly breeze on the backside of high pressure.  Highs will go from the mid 40s today to the mid 50s Tuesday & get this...MID 60s on Wednesday, as the south-southwest flow will increase!  The cold front on the map is slated to move through later Thursday morning/early afternoon with some rain showers late Wednesday night into Thursday.  So Thursday will begin mild, but end much cooler with a chilly breeze, & on Friday, a 40 something chill will return, but it should be mainly dry.

The weekend at this point looks mainly dry with temperatures possibly warming back up into the 50s Saturday & dipping into the 40s Sunday once again.  Stay tuned to News 8 for updates through the week.

Have a great start to your week everyone!
  

57 comments:

  1. The last few runs of the Euro model are pretty interesting. Both show the potential for at least some back-end snow from a storm system rolling through late next week. The 00z run has a really wound-up storm over the Catskills, the 12z has a weaker but colder storm moving from central Indiana to the New England coast. GFS is further north and west through the lakes but with more run-to-run variation. Teleconnections would normally support a screaming torch pattern for that time period, but cold high pressure to our north might throw a big ol' wrench into that idea. At least this November we have things to look forward to and more variation to the pattern, unlike the past two Novembers where it was "mild and dry for the forseeable future" every single day.

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  2. Next week has the potential to be downright December-like for a few days. The latest run of the GFS even has a serious snowstorm (1-2+ feet) down across Pennsylvania during that time. Obviously an idea like that is way too extreme to take seriously after a single model run, but it does seem like the Northeast has its first shot at more widespread measurable snow this season (not on the order of 1-2+ feet though).

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  3. The NAO doesn't quite support that type of storm wrapping up, but with the projected cold air in place, any piece of energy that does come through will likely be in the form of snow. Definitely going to be fun to watch!

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  4. First snow flakes are always exciting to me. Hope we get enough for at least a light coating.

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  5. Yet another potential solution amongst a whole hodgepodge of potential solutions has emerged on the 00z GFS for next week's storm. It tracks almost due north from just off the NC coast into Chesapeake Bay, and brings the zone for decent snowfall ever so close to Rochester. As it sits we would get an inch or two out of that solution while the higher elevations in PA and WV get 1 to 2 feet. Bear in mind that the 18z solution was much further south and had less snow, however this is now the third consecutive GFS run to show a substantial snowfall for somebody. It'll be very interesting to see what the other models do, especially the Euro which currently has no storm at all.

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  6. It will be interesting to watch but as is usually the case it will miss us and go South and East. We are used to it though. It will definitely get cold mid next week though but will not last very long. The pattern is very progressive right now. The latest GFS model run takes next weeks storm hugging the shoreline.

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  7. Don't be so sure about anything at this point, especially with little to no consistency in the models. FWIW, the AccuWeather crew is favoring a storm track along the coast which would put us in the plowable snow zone. I can see where they're coming from too, since the combination of a -EPO and a brief period of downstream blocking could be just enough to buckle the jet stream and make the storm turn up the coast. As always, time will tell.

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  8. Starting already! The alarmist on another station to remain nameless points out a potential for a big snow storm next Friday. Ha ha it is so funny how he throws that out there and the most accurate says nothing. He knows it is not going to happen and Hetsko is not going for ratings. So so predictable.

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    1. That "alarmist" is mostly correct...the potential is there for a snowstorm late next week. Scott probably hasn't said anything about it because there's too much uncertainty and model spread to get people worried. We could get anything from a healthy dump of snow to dry sunshine at this point.

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  9. It does not look like a snow event for us.It looks to go way off the coast. It is too bad because we will have cold air in place, but high pressure will rule the roost and leave us high and dry.

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    1. If you discount the operational Euro and numerous ensemble solutions amongst a very wide spread of ensemble solutions, then yes that would be the call. Point being, there is way too much uncertainty and way too much time remaining to be certain of anything. Some of you are already jumping ship on this one which, IMHO, isn't very wise. Personally I'd wait until after the weekend for any degree of conviction, which is exactly what I'll be doing.

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  10. To anonymous above. Where do you go to see the operational Euro model? I cannot seem to find it. Can you give me the link to that site? Thanks

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    1. I go here: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php
      Or alternatively, here: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ecmwf&map=na&run=00&lang=en

      On a related note, if the first significant snow happens in the piedmont of North freaking Carolina before it happens in Rochester, NY (like what the Euro shows) then I will officially declare our climate to be royally FUBAR'd.

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  11. Yes, I saw that too. The Euro is now more in line with the GFS. Off the coast. That would be a kick in the face for us snow lovers.

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    1. It's closer to the GFS but still in blatant opposition, as the GFS doesn't have a low bombing out near New England like the Euro does. In fact, the GFS shows no organized storm at all, much like the rest of the models. Also FWIW, the Euro ensemble mean is much further east than its operational counterpart.

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  12. Lets stop! There will not be a storm for Rochester. It is early so just relax with all this snow storm talk.

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    1. Not one person has said there will for sure be a snowstorm. If anything, people have been gung-ho about there NOT being a snowstorm. Other than that it's all been speculation up until now, harmless and fun speculation. And yes I agree, it is early, which kind of invalidates your declaration of no storm.

      That said, the new Euro is much further offshore with the storm, so our chances of a hit are greatly diminished but not totally gone yet. There's still plenty of time to go, but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one.

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  13. Fun to read about, but lets not get too excited about any snow storm potential in mid November. It simply doesn't happen very often and snow rarely sticks around til December, and even then it's questionable.

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  14. Weather must be ho hum because not a post from a meteorologist in a week. When is Scott's winter weather prediction show?

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  15. November 22nd at 5:30 I believe. The weather will be boring. We will get a touch of snow tonight but nothing exciting. No Big storms on the horizon. Storms will keep passing to or West and warm is up then the cold front will pass and cool us dowm. Very progressive pattern.

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  16. A touch of snow is still better than no snow at all. I do agree that the pattern looks to be pretty dull for awhile around here. As long as the jet flow remains so progressive we likely won't be getting any big storm action, just gusty cold fronts from time to time. As an aside, I'm getting real tired of the word "progressive." It permeated all of last winter and now it's showing up again. I really hope it doesn't last much longer.

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  17. Typical November pattern... Nothing to get worked up about. Plus, models did not show this Arctic High effecting our neck of the woods until late last week so I wouldn't take every long range model run at face value! Of note, NAO and AO look to crash second half of the month, so look for models to begin to pick up on this

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  18. What does that mean Weatherguy?

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  19. I'm no meteorologist so I'm sure my explanation is a bit crude, but the NAO indicates the strength of an area of high pressure in the northern Atlantic near Greenland. When the NAO is negative, that area of high pressure is strong and doesn't allow the cold air to just swirl around the top of the globe near the Arctic. Instead, it "blocks" the cold air from continuing to move across the Arctic circle and forces the cold toward the southern latitudes (i.e. Rochester), thus giving us colder air. The AO index is very similar. When the AO trends negative, it means that there is a high pressure system up in the Arctic, which thus forces the polar vortex (core of the planet's cold air) down toward the southern latitudes. When both of these indices are negative, it usually, but not always, means that we will experience colder than average temperatures. Hope this explanation helped...

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  20. Thanks Weatherguy. That helps.

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  21. Took a walk outside in our first measurable snow of the season. Looks like about 3/10 of an inch so far where I am. Also saw Scott's FB where someone sent in a pic from Batavia, they look like they've borne the brunt so far.

    Definitely hoping Weatherguy is correct about the NAO/AO, would be a really nice change of pace from the last 4 Novembers.

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  22. Officially 1.2 inches of snow fell at the airport yesterday. That makes it our SECOND measurable snow of the season, as well as the first inch+. A bit earlier than average, and almost 6 weeks earlier than last season's record latest first inch. So it seems our snow season is off to a much more typical start compared to recent years.

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  23. Let's hope it continues. Not much winrer weather coming up after this for awhile though.

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  24. It looks to get pretty cold again by the mid to later part of next week and may last longer than this quick hit.

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  25. I've been seeing that too Snowdog. In fact, the most recent NWS discussion talks about widespread lake snow showers on a NW flow during that time. Reads more like a January forecast than a November forecast. Not so sure about the cold lasting beyond the end of next week, but we'll see what transpires.

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  26. Yeah, it looks like the pattern will remain very progressive so the cold will not last long so it will be up down in November. Next week looks interesting with some good lake effect snow for counties bordering lake Ontario.

    I wish this blog would be updated by the Mets. The last time was Nov 4th.

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  27. The latest GFS takes the brunt of the cold air to our North now next week. The GFS is all over the place with every run.

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  28. I don't want to jinx it, but the models are starting to hint at a prolonged period of below average temps starting late next week... Time will tell, but based on the teleconnection trends, it looks good for cold and potential snow, a far cry from past Novembers!

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  29. I see that too Weatherguy. In fact, if the models do not change Thanksgiving week looks quite wintry. Maybe a white Thanksgiving this year?

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  30. The word "severe" is showing up in the NWS point forecasts for Sunday night. So as long as we aren't getting snow in the near term it'll at least be fun to have a severe threat.

    I'm taking a skeptical approach to the prospect of any prolonged wintry pattern for now. Current teleconnection forecasts would be favorable for such a thing, but we've seen such things emerge in the long range before only to slowly fade as we get closer.

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  31. Where are the Mets on the blog? No posts for over 11 days? Scott did say the week after next is intriguing last night. I believe that is what he said but he did not elaborate.

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    1. Unfortunately it seems Scott has given up on this blog after too much negative nonsense from a few select posters, which is really a shame. It also seems Scott has directed his energy into Facebook-- something I have no use for.

      Hopefully when there is something of substance to talk about, at least John and Stacey (and hopefully Scott) will be around on this blog.

      Till then, gonna enjoy the nice weather and ability to get some extra golf in, and will really be excited when the snow arrives.

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  32. What do you mean by severe for Sunday night?

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    1. Severe thunderstorms. SPC pegs our region with a slight risk for severe storms on Sunday, which would be realized well after sunset if they occurred.

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  33. Next weeks cold looks like a glancing blow with not much snow. It also seems as if the models are starting to back off on the cold for Thanksgiving week. We will see.

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  34. Do not start hugging model to model because it will get you no where. People did it all last winter and anything 7-10 days out rarely happened. It is early so do not expect any big snows. Thanks

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    1. No expectation, only speculation. And just to even things out, no one should be expecting a lack of big snows either. We're in a volatile pattern right now, it would be foolish to have expectations of any sort for Thanksgiving week.

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  35. Is this High Wind Warning not a big deal for Rochester? There seems to be little concern about the warning?

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  36. From NWS Buffalo:

    WITH SUCH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM…WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STING JET. IF THIS MATERIALIZES…PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY BE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN 60 MPH.

    And:

    CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR A FRONTALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DISCRETE CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SERIAL DERECHO ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

    So if there wasn't any concern about the wind before, there should be.

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  37. Squall line just blew through Henrietta. Only lasted a few minutes but it was very intense.

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  38. Have the mets stopped posting on the blog for some reason? Nothing for 2 weeks?

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  39. Would be an odd time to quit the blog. It normally picks up in winter. I check in here at least once a day.

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  40. The first wintry weather of substance may occur this weekend. I'll be shocked if there isn't a new thread posted sometime before then.

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  41. I asked John why they are not posting and he did not respond yet.

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  42. Snowdog what are you thinking about next week and after? I know you felt before winter weather could be coming.

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  43. I'm starting to think the late week event will be more of a rainy cold front followed by some minor lake effect, mostly in the typical WNW flow areas east of Rochester. Until we get some downstream blocking the cutter train will keep on rolling and these cold shots won't deliver much snow.

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  44. Snowdog any response from John?

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  45. Guessing there are no updates because there is nothing special to talk about. No sense coming here and speculating on 7-14 day ranges, because that usually leads to disappointment.

    I do hope the mets appear when there is something worth talking about.

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  46. There was a High Wind Warning this past Sunday. I would have thought maybe a post about that?

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  47. I still think the pattern will remain progressive like anonymous posted above, but I think we will see the pattern get progressively colder. We just need a good storm to ride along and east of the Appalachians which rarely happens. I think we are going to have to rely on lake Effect for our snow for the next few weeks. No response from John either. Not sure what is going on.

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