Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist


Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Tuesday, November 19

Nicest Day of the Week on Wednesday

Written by John DiPasquale:

A brisk Tuesday with slow clearing will be followed by a cold, frosty night tonight as strengthening high builds in tonight.  Lows will likely be within a few degrees of 20. 

The weather map above says it all for Wednesday...High & dry with plenty of sunshine!  Yes, it will be chilly, but really a nice day by late November standards with a fairly seasonable high, mid 40s, & the sun in November is always a bonus since it is the cloudiest month of the year climatologically speaking.  So soak it up!

Thursday will turn cloudier during the day, but there should be some sun to start with highs nearing 50.

A little rain & even milder weather should blow in for Friday ahead of a storm system & it's cold front.  Highs Friday should make it well into the 50s with a gusty southwest breeze.  The cold front will then barrel through later Friday night & behind it some of the coldest air of the season will probably begin to pour in on a strong west to northwest wind Saturday into Saturday night.  This will cause readings to fall through the 30s Saturday with a little snow shower & lake snow developing later in the day, POTENTIALLY followed by some more significant lake snows in localized areas, especially north of the Thruway Saturday night into Sunday.  It's still way too early to say where the lake snows will be setting up, but it's something we will be watching closely.  Stay tuned for updates through the rest of the week. 

Have a great night WNY!


  1. First post in two weeks in the midst of an active pattern, and it leads off by talking about a single sunny day in the middle of the work week. Way to be John :P

  2. I am glad to have you back John. Missed your input the last two weeks. I am looking forward to a SUNNY AY on Wed. Thanks



  4. Hopefully the flow will actually be NW this time and not WNW or W for the 400th consecutive time.

  5. The models are hinting at a East Coast low next week. It could be interesting to watch. As far as the lake effect goes, if the winds are too strong it could disrupt the lake effect.

  6. I don't think wind speed will be too much of an inhibitor regarding lake effect potential. The bigger concern in my mind is wind direction, since a WNW flow as opposed to NW would keep Rochester high and dry. The pre-Thanksgiving potential is really starting to catch my eye...seems like the first time this season that the pattern won't favor suppression or a track through the Lakes. There seems to be some semblance of model consensus already as well, which at this point would paint a track a tad too far east. Plenty of time for a shift though, definitely worth tracking.

  7. Well, we are used to the too far South and East scenario so that would probably be the likely solution and it would miss us. You are right, if the winds go WNW we miss out and Wayne county and East wins. If it is NW we could be in for significant Lake effect. We will see.

  8. Nothing to worry about in Rochester for either event. Lake snows will be east of city the usual spots and storm not that big will be well east of the Flower City.

    1. And what is any of this based on? You're obviously very sure of yourself, now substantiate it. Otherwise don't bother wasting your time.

      The way I see it, the lake effect for this weekend will be brief but rather intense considering how cold the airmass will be. Relative humidity looks to be rather high Saturday night with temps solidly in the 20s, so that seems to be the time frame for the best setup. The NWS currently paints a wind direction that would favor northeastern Monroe/western Wayne county for the heaviest amounts, but there's enough of a northerly component there to keep everyone north of the Thruway in the game. Just a small shift in the forecast wind direction could put the bulk of the metro right in the bullseye.

      As for next week's storm, any model continuity we had before has flown straight out the window with a big shift east on the GFS and GEM in the most recent run for both. Not nearly enough to constitute a trend, just another set of possible outcomes in the grab bag.

  9. I agree with the East Coast storm being well East but not the Lake effect. The NWS out of Erie has already issued statements for their counties that lake effect advisories and warnings will need to be issued. On a NW wind Rochester could get some good snow.

  10. Not sure what you are talking about Anonymous? You basically said the same thing I said. Lake effect snow more towards Wayne and eastern counties. Next week the storm will be well east? Not sure what your gripe is about? The evidence is called climatology and it tells us the outcomes.

  11. Anon, climatology also says that an air mass like the one slated for our region this weekend shouldn't arrive until late Dec./early January...

  12. Yes and lake effect not just about wind direction it is wind speed/shear that impacts the outcomes. That will not be favorable for strong lake effect squalls. Just my opinion but I am not an expert. Climatology does tell me the storm for Thanksgiving will either be well east or OTS.

  13. Climatology only works as a last resort if there's too much medium range uncertainty to make a forecast. If climatology worked every time then Rochester would never get lake effect, Hurricane Sandy would not have happened and we would not currently be on the throes of a major arctic outbreak.

    I'm not an expert either, but I'm not seeing any significant shear issues for this weekend. I took a glimpse at the vertical wind barb profile from the GFS and the wind looks very well aligned all the way up to 850 mb, regarding both direction and speed. See here: At this point it looks like the HEAVIEST amounts will be a bit to the east, but the snows will likely not be CONFINED to those areas. I should've made that distinction earlier. The predominantly NW flow should afford the entire region an opportunity for at least moderate amounts.


Blog Archive