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Wednesday, November 20

TIME TO START WRITING AGAIN!



Written By:  Scott Hetsko

It's been awhile since I've blogged and I want to thank John for continuing the conversation until now.  There are so many demands on a television meteorologist these days with forecasting, social media, TV and web that the blog is often thrown on the back burner.  Our first real shot of Arctic air will arrive Saturday night and Sunday.  There is the potential for plowable lake snow along and North of the thruway during this time frame.

The wind looks to be aligned such that a good Georgian Bay connection will set up.  It's impossible to know exactly where because this 10 miles wide band can spray anywhere from Orleans and Genesee or into Monroe county.


Lake Snow Setup Sunday:

PROS
1)  850 mb temps at -16 to -20
2)  Decent cyclonic flow
3)  High humidity values in the boundary layer
4)  Georgian Bay connection

CONS
1)  Short fetch, multiple band snow
2)  Wind speed could limit time of air spent over the lakes


I think the PROS outweigh the CONS so I feel good about accumulating snow here on Sunday.  We'll have a better idea as to amount and timing of any snow Friday night, stay tuned and feel free to chime in!

25 comments:

  1. Holy crap a Scott Hetsko blog post. I guess the first significant lake effect threat was enough to finally bring you out of hiding. Welcome back to the fray.

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  2. Scott is back! What do you think about a potential storm Thanksgiving that some are talking about?

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  3. Too early to know obviously but I'd lean on it being an "Out to Sea'ster" instead of a Nor'Easter.

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  4. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 20, 2013 at 7:19 PM

    Lack of a -NAO and -AO is going to cause storms to go out to sea rather than ride the seaboard.

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  5. Excited for the first significant snow in Rochester. This November is turning out much different than last November. Let it snow. Get us in the mood for Christmas. I agree on the NO STORM next week. Out to sea it will go.

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  6. Do not see this lake effect being a big deal. Maybe a few inches at best.

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  7. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 20, 2013 at 8:14 PM

    LES dependent upon many factors. Wind shear could be an issue with this event. NW winds never produce huge quantities of snow at once. Last Feb. 21, I was at my cabin in northeastern Oswego County when an arctic front kicked up WNW flow with moist arctic air. It snowed from 9:00am to past midnight. Officials totals were 30" by the time it was all said and done. We ride snowmobiles there and the snow was so deep, we had to wait until it settled before we could ride without getting stuck. NW winds in the Rochester metro cannot generate as much snow as a WNW or W flow in Oswego and Lewis counties. Not only do those locations have the ~200 mile fetch of the Lake, but also upsloping as the elevation climbs several hundred to thousands of feet from the lake level to the top of Tug Hill.

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  8. Every time we have an impending snow event there's always that one comment which downplays the whole thing (see: Anonymous, 8:02 PM). It's always similar wording too. I suspect it's one person who sincerely believes we can never get significant snow around here.

    Chris raises some good points, but ultimately I don't think the short fetch will be too much of a hindrance, nor do I think there will be much if any shear. There will be enough lake-induced instability (delta-T's should be around 20 Celsius if not higher), along with a connection to Georgian Bay, to overcome the short fetch, plus there looks to be good vertical wind alignment during Saturday night into early Sunday. Let's not forget what the combination of high delta-T's and an upper lakes connection can do around here. I distinctly recall an event from a few years ago where snowfall rates approached 3 inches per hour with such a setup. Obviously we won't get the kind of rates that Oswego County gets. That area, however, routinely sees rates approaching 5 inches per hour. Even 40 percent of that is substantial.

    If you asked me, I'd say 2 inches bare minimum from the Thruway north by the very end of the weekend, with the only limiting factor being short duration of heavier bands. Most of us should see more than a few inches.

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  9. To me it looks like at least 6"+ North of the Thruway by Monday morning. 2" seems low to me. Lake effect advisories and possible warnings will go up by Friday evening.

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  10. 3 inches of snow an hour is fun to be out in.. unless you are driving. Hope we get at least a brief period at that rate. Ground totally covered for a few hours is good enough for me this early in the season.

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  11. Again Mr. Hetsko'.s cons will prevail wind speed will limit the time spent over the lakes. No big deal and 104 corridor and Wayne county will get the most a few inches. He is also correct with OTS for Turkey day supposed storm.

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  12. I disagree with Anon. It looks like the Eastern Sunburbs of Rochester eastward will see the most snow. The one problem is dry air. It is not going to be a lot of snow by any means but 4-6 seems likely for these areas. The NWS has stated they are talking about putting up Lake effect snow watches soon.

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  13. Yes again Snowdog where are we disagreeing I said a few inches ok 4 that is a few. Again the snow will not impact the city area more Wayne County and eastward.

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  14. We have got the plows ready in Hamlin. Lake snow or no lake snow, winter is back in western ny. The 12Z EURO has an exciting new model run for next week. I would not be surprised if everyone north of the I90 ended up with 2-3 inch's of snow with the second cold front passage Saturday night. Quick burst of snow for all. Who knows, I sure don't but its fun to speculate.

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  15. Multi-band scenarios are almost impossible to predict! But all is it takes a quick upstream connection to dump a fresh blanket of snow. In this case, we are all at the mercy of the wind direction...

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  16. That Coastal low looks more interesting with the EURO model. It brings it right up the coast. Worth watching.

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  17. Saying something enough times won't make it true. Saying "no impact in Rochester" 500 times won't change the eventual reality. That said, the short window for heavy lake effect and dry air intrusion by dawn on Sunday will limit potential accumulations, but I'm holding firm to the idea of at least 2 inches for all from the Thruway north, with perhaps 90% of the region seeing more than that. I say this because even light/moderate multi-band snow can add up over the course of many hours. Seems we're all down for about 12 hours worth of that. Plus, as Hamlin mentioned, the possibility is there for a quick burst of heavy snow with the arctic front. Warning criteria amounts should stay confined to the northeastern suburbs and western Wayne county.

    Models are indeed beginning to trend west with next week's storm. No more "out to sea'ster" on either the GFS or the Euro. Still too far east to impact Rochester, but with 5 days to go the trend is our friend. All we need IMO is a more southerly track of the northern stream system to create an earlier phase, more amplification and a sharper turn to the north.

    For the record, 4 technically constitutes "several" not "a few."

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  18. The new Euro is now in line with the GFS. Taking it further East and a complete miss with rain on the coast. It will bring more cold air down with more lake effect possible. I know we say it all the time, but we just cannot get a storm to come up the coast inland. It just does not happen any more.

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  19. Again people who get angry when you are right. Go with Scott as usual we have the pretender on another station like many of this blog hyping up the LES event and "possible" coastal storm when he knows darn well they are no big deals. Love when he says "Checking new data just coming in" ha ha. So I guess saying something enough does make it true. Again climatology tells us the storm is going OTS and not riding up the coast and it tells us the possible "BIG" LES will be the 104 area and east. Come on people lets just keep the Blog real and not hyped.

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    1. I didn't realize it was already Sunday and your predictions had verified. Wait...you mean it's only Friday and no one's predictions have verified? That's what I thought, now quit tooting your own horn. No one likes a braggart, especially a premature one.

      Anyway...the coastal storm is absolutely still on the table for us. It wouldn't take much to get it to track further west and deliver a plowable snowfall upon us. Several GFS ensemble members depict exactly that, and with just under 5 days to go there is still plenty of time for a big shift in the track. You can throw "climatology" out there all you want, it rarely works to a T. In fact, climatology tells us there shouldn't even be a big snow producer at all, it should either be a great lakes cutter or a warm nor'easter with rain and slop for most. Additionally, very few if any reliable models depict an OTS solution, almost all of them follow the coastline within a few hundred miles or so.

      I saw the forecast from the "pretender" along with Scott's forecast (I never stick to a single source for anything), and he's definitely not hyping the lake effect in the slightest. He's also been stressing that the biggest risk for next week's storm is, in fact, east of here. No hype of any kind, although I do realize he's prone to that sometimes.

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  20. Michele in PenfieldNovember 22, 2013 at 8:01 AM

    Just a quick question for News 8 folks, I am having trouble finding the blog site on an I-pad or I-phone app. Perhaps I am just missing it...........Any help would greatly be appreciated. I do enjoy following the blog this time of year. Thanks!

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    1. This should work http://rhpweatherblog.blogspot.com

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  21. Anon 10:40 I guess only time will tell!

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  22. Michele in PenfieldNovember 22, 2013 at 1:31 PM

    Thanks anonymous @ 11:06 for the link!

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  23. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 22, 2013 at 5:48 PM

    The problem with the T-Day storm is no -NAO to maintain its position on the coast or push it inland. However…there is little influence from the Pacific and the steering winds are favorable for at least some snow pretty far inland, though perhaps not here. Probably Syracuse and east. You really need a -NAO or, if not, several other factors to make up for it.

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