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Friday, November 22

A Wintry Weekend Ahead

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, yes it's that time of the year again!  A little rain will fly later this afternoon into early tonight & could very well end as a little snow/mix, as colder air filters in behind cold front # 1 this afternoon.  Little to no accumulation is expected tonight, but a few icy spots are probably going to develop late tonight into early Saturday with readings expected to dip just below freezing. 

Saturday will start off tranquil with some sun, but during the afternoon some snow showers/squall should move through with the Arctic cold front itself.  Behind it, temperatures will free fall out of the 35 to 40 degree range into the 20s by day's end!  Winds will also shift from west to northwest, & increase in the wake of the cold front.  Some lake snows will likely fire up late Saturday into Sunday, before tapering off late Sunday/early Sunday night.  Will this be a big snow event for most?  No, I don't think so, but it will probably be enough to cover the ground for many & cause slick spots on the roads, especially Saturday night into Sunday, plus some blowing of the snow will likely occur thanks to the snow being light & fluffy.  I believe the most significant snows will fall across the Eastern half of Wayne County into the Eastern Finger Lakes, Syracuse area where a 4 to 8" snowfall could occur.  Yes we will have some snow falling Sunday, but the biggest story on Sunday will likely not be the snow, but the possibly record minimum high & dangerous wind chills in the -5 to +10 range!!  Brutal to say the least!  It actually will likely be one of the coldest November days on record here in Rochester going back to the 1800s!  The record low high Sunday is 24° set back in 1917!  Yeah, this type of cold doesn't happen often this time of year. 

Temperatures will moderate to more tolerable levels early to mid next week, but probably remain below average with a little more snow possible Monday through Wednesday with highs mainly in the 30s & some wind making it feel colder.  Wednesday, the biggest travel day of the year we will be keeping an eye on a developing storm moving up the coast expected to become a nor'easter.  At this point it looks like most, if not, all of it will miss us to the east, but it could kick start a little lake snow on Wednesday into Turkey Day with colder air blowing back in to end next week.  Stay tuned for updates over the next several days.

Have a great day & weekend WNY!  Snow lovers, I think this is going to be your year!     

85 comments:

  1. "Snow lovers, I think this is going to be your year!"

    God I hope so. Seems like forever since we've had a truly blockbuster winter, meanwhile the coast has had several in recent years complete with historic blizzards one after another. It's our turn now.

    Worth mentioning that most of the guidance has trended west with next week's storm over the past couple of runs, with the exception of the GFS which moved east. However, that places it well east of its ensemble mean, which tracks the storm slightly offshore. GEM is furthest west with a track through the coastal plain, and would put us right in the sweet spot. Still quite a bit of discrepancy regarding both intensity and track, but not nearly as much as a few days ago. The trend is still our friend, with the GEM hopefully leading the way...

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  2. The trend will put it to an end for us. Stop with a storm for us next week. It is not happening with the climate set-up. Just like the Rochester metro could be in for big lake snows this weekend? A dusting with a few inches to the east. We have lowered our standards for what is winter as it pertains to snowfall. Just follow along as we remain with minimal amounts of snow through the winter but get jacked up for the big one.

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    1. Why do you have such a gripe with people being hopeful about big snow? Seriously, half a dozen times a day you pop in to remind us all about how Rochester can't possibly get a decent snowfall ever. Some of us go a bit overboard sometimes, but it's never all that unrealistic and it's all part of the super-duper fun roller coaster of being a weather enthusiast. At least it SHOULD be super-duper fun, but then you come here and try to end it with your negativity. It's incredibly off-putting. You don't even really substantiate it either, it's just "something something climatology" and that's the end of it. This has been said enough times already, but making a forecast requires a lot more than climatology. Hurricane Sandy and last winter's massive nor'easter during a positive NAO are proof positive of that. In any event, John's forecast graphic above certainly indicates more than a dusting to a few inches from lake effect. And as for next week's storm, the climate setup actually FAVORS a storm somewhere between the coastal plain and the 40/70 benchmark, thanks to jet amplification and timing of large scale features. The models are beginning to reflect that AND have been trending west in recent runs. That is enough on its own to keep the chance alive FOR NOW.

      All of our hope and speculation is in good fun, nothing more nothing less, and I fail to understand your beef with that. No offense, but I believe you're the one who needs a healthy dose of reality, not us. Just relax and have fun, it's only weather after all.

      (yes I realize that I just spent valuable time and effort typing all of this out to a single internet stranger who doesn't impact my life in any discernible way)

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    2. Oh and BY THE WAY...

      http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Advisory#.Uo_AteLaLSs

      Granted, the high end of that range will probably be realized north of 104, but it still looks like the lion's share of the region from the Thruway north will see at least a few inches.

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  3. Hello Scott just did his forecast a few inches for all and he did not give a slight mention about the "Storm" on Thanksgiving. In fact said it is going to be nice. I think I will go with "Rochester's Most Accurate" on this one he is rarely wrong.

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    1. Thank you for posting this. After reading the other posts I was wondering if those who are traveling to visit family or have family visiting next week for Thanksgiving should think about cancelling plans due to the "storm" and the significant snow expected.

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  4. NWS snow total map through 7pm Sunday:

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml

    Anyone wishing to travel on Wednesday should neither cancel their plans nor go all in on smooth sailing at this point. Too much uncertainty. If you're driving towards the coast you might want to consider leaving earlier. Scott did just mention the storm, said he currently thinks it'll be a miss but still bears watching.

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  5. OK just on his forecast Scott "For us looks good Wednesday and Thanksgiving". Can we please stop the east coast storm talk as I have been saying for 2 days. 2 or 3 inches of snow tomorrow night through Sunday and that is no big deal so lets move on to the next real threat the first week of December keep an eye on that date.

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  6. I love how all 3 channels are totally different in their snowfall totals. One channel is 1-3, the other is 5-6 and state that is conservative. Of course channel 8 states 3-6. I will stick with Scott and his team.

    Yes, the East Coast storm will miss us, but we are used to storms missing us. They always go South and East.

    I personally do not get excited about any storm because, in most cases, they miss us. If we get one I will be very happy. Until then we have to rely on the lake.

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  7. Everything has whitened up very quickly here in Hamlin. It might not be a big deal, but is a nice start to HOPEFULLY a promising winter season. This arctic blast is very impressive this early in the season, traveling over warm non snow covered ground and warm lakes and still remaining so cold. NAO also trending neutral to negative to end Nov. and in early Dec.. Much different than this time last season.

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  8. My lawn in Henrietta is already substantially whitened and the lake effect hasn't even started yet. 3-6 inches definitely looks like a good bet right now. As for next week's storm, I'm going to harp on it once again because the Euro now shows a substantial snowstorm in our region. Its track is similar to the GEM operational/ensemble mean as well, maybe a tad west. The operational GFS with its OTS track is an outlier at this point, as not even its ensemble mean agrees with it. Say it with me now: "The Trend is our Friend." Well, so far anyway.

    I'm not even going to discuss any storm threat for early December. The only evidence I've seen of a storm during that time is a few GFS runs. And with strong west-based blocking favored for that time period I think we'll see more of a clipper/lake effect pattern anyway, with the big stuff staying well south and east.

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  9. What site do you go to see the Euro?

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    1. Instant Weather Maps and Meteocentre are the two I use. They don't show precipitation though, so I go to Weather Underground for precip.

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  10. The Euro has definitely moved the storm inland giving us a potentially good snowstorm. The GFS is still sticking to it guns as well though moving it off the coast. I have had a few squalls in Gananda just lightly whitening the ground.

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    1. The GFS is an outlier at this point, even compared to its own ensembles. All other guidance is closer to the Euro camp. If the GFS verified it would be a huge coup.

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  11. What does the Japanese model say?

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  12. The NWS just came out with a statement saying that the model of choice is the EURO and we will likely be impacted by this storm. I hope it does not move to far inland to give us rain. It is getting more exciting though.

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  13. Will become a GLC and give us rain so happy travel for all on Thanksgiving.

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  14. Latest GFS going OTS as I have been stating. Climatology people this will be either OTS or far east to impact us. I have been saying it as has Rochester's Most Accurate. Not sure why all of you are holding out. The LES is also no big deal just sit back and enjoy Thanksgiving and get ready for the first week of December that is where fun starts.

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    Replies
    1. If you're going to make predictions then why don't you stand by them with a real name.

      Andy

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  15. The GFS is an outlier and all the talk out of the weather offices is that they are throwing the GFS out the window. You cannot go by one model. The EURO and CANADIAN models give us a snowstorm.

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  16. Snowdog time will tell! But I am not going with just one model. I am going with Climatology and more importantly I am going with Mr. Hetsko who by far is the best at understanding climatology and has known all week this is OTS or way east for The Flower City. I think you will the Euro and other models coming to the GFS not the other way around.

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  17. I hear ya and there will be run to run variations until we get closer to the event. I believe channel 8 will start talking about it more seriously in the days to come. Things have changed BIG time since yesterday. I have been reading the chatter out of the NWS offices and they are liking the inland track. We will see. Fun to talk about it anyway.

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  18. I would not get very excited about next weeks storm potential just yet. There hasn't been a consistent model run yet by either the GFS or the EURO. I don't think there should be confidence in either scenario. I am thinking a near miss for western NY, but NOT an out to sea storm. We can all agree that it is much more exciting with a wintery pattern starting to take shape for the extended period along with a possible winter storm in our cards.

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  19. All you say is "climatology favors OTS" and then never tell us why it does. The fact remains that the GFS and the JMA are the only operational models showing OTS, which goes against the Euro, the GEM, the NAM, the UKMET, the DGEX, the National Weather Service, even the GFS's own ensembles to a large extent. I'm putting my money on the GFS caving sometime within the next 24 hours. I don't trust outliers.

    By the way, climatology says tomorrow's high should be in the low 40's.

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  20. snowing moderate to heavy right now in henrietta

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  21. The lake effect is having a hard time getting its act together. Barely have an inch here in Western Wayne county with just a few scattered flurries. Maybe the dry air and high winds are hampering its development. I believe based on the models right now that we are in for a storm next week. The trend has been to take it inland. I think we have to worry about a mixed precip event and not all snow now.

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    1. "The lake effect is having a hard time getting its act together."

      Not really, organized banding exists across Orleans County down through Livingston County where the Georgian Bay connection is aimed. So the lake effect is purring along nicely, just not over our heads.

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  22. "Snow lovers, I think this is going to be your year! "

    I, too, hope you are right. I've seen a few winters start early and then fizzle out though. And I've been reading debates about a possible ++ AO for this winter. If that is ends up being true, we are going to need a lot of help from the Pacific.

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  23. Only about a 1/2" so far in Western Wayne county. Very disappointing so far. Not even a flurry right now and nothing on radar.

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  24. Well look at that...the GFS came back west with the storm. Still way east of the other guidance, but a vast improvement nonetheless.

    Looks like the big lake is gearing up for Round 2.

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  25. The 00z Euro is not a pretty sight for holiday travelers. Very nasty nor'easter with big time snow/rain/wind, our region gets crushed by snow. Other models in strong agreement regarding track, only exception is the GFS.

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  26. I think we are in for a BIG snowstorm people. The GFS is starting to trend West but is an outlier. I received 3 inches overnight and coming down light right now.

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  27. Eh, I wouldn't go all in on a big snowstorm just yet. Still awhile to go and numerous details to iron out, not to mention the GFS being as stubborn as ever (it STILL insists on an offshore track as of the 06z run). Not too surprising though considering that the off runs initialize off the same data as the main ones. Personally I'm tossing it and going with at least a moderate impact event in WNY. One thing seems very likely though...IF this storm pans out for us, we won't be hearing from Captain Climatology for awhile.

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  28. The lake effect was pretty weak last night. It never really got its act together. It is amazing that the GFS is not joining the other models. It is sticking to its guns although is trending further west. The EURO has a 995mb low over Eastern, NY.

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  29. I am actually concerned that if the Westward track continues we might end up with a mix.

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  30. Relax people climatology still in play the NAO is still a factor. Strom will go way east either giving us nothing or west of us bringing a soaking rain. Be patient models will head this way starting today. Feeling like the more west will happen hate a soaking rain in the winter. The one thing I do worry about are the temps and a possible significant ice storm we do not that.

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  31. Scott, John, or Stacey any thought's about the upcoming storm. Hamlin ended up with about an inch or so from cold front very little LES. I would love to see 0Z EURO verifry an early season snow storm would be cool. I am sure everyone is waiting for GFS 12Z run before commenting.

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  32. It would definitely be nice to see the 12z start jumping on board, especially since this potential event is less than 72 hours away... I would say in Chili we picked up an inch or two with the grass completely covered. Whether we get the storm or not, it's nice to finally see some early season snow. And just for entertainment purposes, Henry Margusity's Twitter feed had the Euro storm totals, putting us at 12-18" on one run and then 8-12" on another run. I am in no way saying that is what we get, but I thought it was interesting to say the least.

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  33. Where are other the other weather people like Dave, Jo-Sef, Chris and Michelle to name a few from the past?

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  34. GFS is on board, now it's a question of which model gets a handle on the phasing...

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  35. All of the guidance has converged on an inland track, now the question becomes how much/what types of precip we get. Significant impact from snow/sleet/freezing rain appears likely, currently leaning towards all snow with maybe a bit of mixing in eastern zones. We're too late in the game to be talking about a soaker IMO.

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  36. My guess is that Watches will go up tonight or sometime Monday.

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  37. I am looking forward to seeing what news 8 says tonight. Last time I watched a few days ago Scott was confident it was going to go out to sea...either way its nice to have something to talk about no matter what happens.

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  38. I am leaving Wednesday morning around 8am and will be traveling on the thruway to Albany then south toward new York city. I'm wondering if I should leave Tuesday afternoon? any thoughts on when the snow will arrive?

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    Replies
    1. Tuesday morning or early afternoon is your best bet. Snow looks to move in by Tuesday night, earlier and in liquid form in NYC.

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  39. NWS Pittsburgh has issued a Winter Storm Watch for several of their counties. Expect our office to follow suit within the next 12-24 hours.

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  40. When are they going to make a new post about the storm? At this time when does it look like the worst conditions are going to occur here and how much snow?

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  41. Chris now in PenfieldNovember 24, 2013 at 4:59 PM

    I believe we are definitely going to see some…possibly more than some…snow. Too early to tell how much. I highly doubt it will be rain and doubt it will miss us entirely. I will make an early, early guess and say 3-6".

    Euro model has been steady all along. The GFS ensembles…much more reliable than the regular operational GFS…has the coastal low heading inland 80% of the time too. Could be a miss, just not likely.

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    Replies
    1. The operational GFS is also inland, which further strengthens the case for such a track. Tomorrow's 12z runs will have full sampling to work with, so a final track give or take 10 miles should be established by dinner time tomorrow.

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  42. 3-6" . Too low. Why are you thinking so low????

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    1. I also think it's too low, but at this point there's nothing wrong with going conservative.

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  43. Accuweather is saying 4-8 for our area. With winds having a northerly component, could there be lake enhancement or is it too warm. Lakes are pretty warm right now.

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    1. I would imagine there'd be at least a little lake enhancement. In any case, I wouldn't trust accuweather's precip forecasts this far out.

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  44. These models still have some work to do as far as coming into agreement. I'm a little concerned about the low pressure remaining split, which would not allow it to deepen and throw a ton of moisture back. Some models are showing this vs. others, which show a strong phasing and a decent storm for us. I think our questions will all be answered by midday tomorrow.

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  45. Remember the LES was not strong in most areas for Rochester and this storm will be a bust and something is fishy with this LP.

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  46. Interesting News 8 has not weighed in on this potential storm. Makes me think this will be nothing huge.

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    1. They've mentioned it but haven't weighed in on in because it's still a rather uncertain situation. No question at this point that it'll be huge for travellers.

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  47. Can't call it a bust before any actual human forecasts have been made. Accuweather's local forecasts are automated so I don't include them. There really isn't any substantial "fishiness" about this storm that I can pick out.

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  48. Winter Storm Watches just went up. Why are people calling this a bust before it even starts????? The NWS out of Buffalo is stating 7 inches or more.

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  49. Winter Storm Watch now in effect. Potential for accumulation of 7 inches or more. Only caveat is low to medium forecaster confidence.

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  50. How can they have low to medium confidence when the storm is only 2 days away. All the technology we have and we cannot even forecast 2 days out. Pretty sad.

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    1. Because that technology isn't perfect and is still waffling on track and intensity. This will be a bit of a thread-the-needle situation...too far east and we only get a minor snowfall, too far west and we get mixing. Margin of error is less than 75 miles, which for a tricky setup like this is substantial.

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  51. Looks like we are in for a storm but now with the further inland track we have to worry about sleet and Freezing rain mixing in in our area keeping snow totals down. The chatter around the NWS offices 4-6" in Western, NY. That seems low with how strong this storm will be. If it rides up the Hudson that is a perfect track for us to get a good amount of snow. I do not think there will be lake enhancement due to the fact it will not be cold enough.

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  52. Wow! So within a few days time we go from probably too far east and out to sea, to too far west and maybe a mix?!!

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  53. What is the latest update on the potential storm many of us have to travel?

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  54. Does anyone know when there will be a strong certainty of the track of this storm and the impact for Rochester and points east? I quess I asking if we are going to get snow when will accumulation numbers be out?

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  55. If the track stays the same and we get all snow then 8-12 inches a good bet by Wednesday evening. Just my opinion not an expert by any means.

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  56. On Friday I went up into the mountains to get winter and bring it back here. Came back on Sunday night and It worked! It feels good to have a storm with potential this early on. The models are in agreement and the challenge is figuring out timing with regard to rain/snow/mix. I agree with anon 8-12 is possible with 6+ being a solid estimate. Here we go :)

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    Replies
    1. Go back and get some more next week!

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  57. More and more storm watches being posted all over western ny...can't believe not a word from our news 8 experts yet about this...Hetsko must still be banking on an 'out to sea-ster' as he previously claimed...

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    1. I would expect them to weigh in tonight. They esp Scott will hold off until they feel confident in their forecast, which is the right thing to do when you're a professional. We can have fun speculating here while they do their thing. I'm sure they are aware that a lot of people watch this blog now and with the timing so close to Thanksgiving they want to be as accurate as they can, especially when a tiny shift west or east makes a significant difference in storm totals such as with this scenario.

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  58. Accuweather's forecast map has us down for 12+ while NWS Binghamton has 4-6 inches in WNY. Needless to say there's still some variance to deal with. I'm banking on amounts being a fair bit higher than 4 inches, more like 8-14 IMO.

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  59. If the 12Z Nam verifies we would be if for 12+ inches of wind driven snow. It really cranks up the storm just to our northeast. This could be the best shot at an East coast snowstorm we will have all season. Very exciting early in the season.

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  60. The 12Z GFS has a much weaker LP than the12Z NAM with a less favorable track from NY northward. The GFS has also taken the longest to get on board with the phasing and westward track. Rochester is right on the border for Mixed bag of precipitation. I would say 5-6 inches for sure with good shot at a 12 inches depending on final track and how quickly this storm deepens pressure. To quickly we get a mix not quick enough and we don't get the rap around moisture. We will see.

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  61. Latest GFS's snow map has us in a 10 inch snowfall amount.

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  62. If you compare the Thursday 0Z forecasts the EURO and NAM are very similar in LP strength and location. The GFS is much quicker and weaker. I am hoping this is the storm we have all been waiting patiently for the last few seasons. WHO KNOW I DONT FOR SURE. I KNOW channel 8 DONT hype up storms but no comments at all for the blog page.

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  63. Maybe it is just me but I think this is a powerful storm with a great deal of moisture picked up from the gulf. I also feel Rochester is going to be in the sweet spot.

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  64. I'm stunned there is no mention from channel 8 yet....I know they like to wait with their snow fall totals, but we're only 24 hours or so from this thing starting and watches have been up...they could at least chime in...other stations are talking about it...where are you channel 8? Asleep at the wheel on this one...

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    1. The weather channel is all over it. Winter Storm Boreas! Perhaps CHANNEL 8 and/or Scott think it went out to sea already!

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    2. Lets not freak out anon 1244. Asleep at the wheel is an offensive remark in my opinion.

      They posted the winter storm watch on their website. We are still likely 36+ hours away from the start. They probably don't know enough to start talking numbers, at least yet to the general public. Even the NWS is still being sly about accumulations.

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  65. I just viewed the accuweather weather website for the first time ever I think there snowfall forecast and discussion is done well, 6-12 Rochester to buffalo 12+ for higher elevations south and west. Time for me to go to work now.

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  66. Becki The BabysitterNovember 25, 2013 at 1:13 PM

    Glad to see you back on here Hamlin Plower. You are always right on the money.

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  67. Another news outlet saying 6 inches or more from the storm.

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