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Monday, December 9

A Cold Week Ahead!

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, snow lovers old man winter may really be flexing his muscles over the next 7 to 10 days here in the Northeast. 

After a fairly mild start to the week it will turn progressively colder tonight through Thursday, as a couple of cold fronts will dive through.  Highs will go from around 40 today, to around 30 Tuesday, to mid 20s Wednesday & low 20s Thursday!  Brrr!!!  All the while, some significant lake snows will likely fire up initially south & west of Rochester off Lake Erie over & around Wyoming County later Tuesday through Wednesday.  Several inches will likely pile up in the most persistent snows east-northeast of Lakes Erie & Ontario, & nothing more than a coating to an inch or so will fall for the rest of us outside the lake snows during the period.

Late Wednesday night/Early Thursday, though, an Arctic front will attempt to push in from the north & if this in fact happens, the accumulating lake snows off Lake Ontario COULD come close, or into the Greater Rochester area for some time Thursday.  Stay tuned for updates through the week regarding this...

A little lake snow may fly off Erie Friday with a milder, but still chilly southwest flow, & then the weekend comes around & we will be watching a developing, moisture laden storm very closely for Saturday & Saturday night.  This is still several days out, but it's definitely something that the long range data is hinting at, as a possibility.  Stay tuned.

Have a great night WNY!

          

70 comments:

  1. Well written John! You have outlined possibilities and emphasized could. As I have said pay attention to next weekend. Like you said the models are hinting at something sizable but as we all know way to early and like you said stay tuned.

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  2. I will not hold my breath as we get dissappointed in Rochester all the time.

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  3. Remember when I said the flow would go zonal after this week? Yeah, not gonna happen folks. The -EPO and the presence of a polar vortex on our side of the globe have been tremendously helpful in the face of precisely zero help from the Atlantic teleconnections/PNA. Without those two things we'd be having a three-peat of mild Decembers, instead we're in an amplified pattern with persistent cold periods.

    Despite being 5 to 6 days out from the weekend storm threat, I feel pretty good about it. Every model I've seen puts us in the game for decent snowfall, plus it looks like it will be a broad circulation with plenty of cold air to work with. This translates to much less of a "borderline" situation than the pre-Thanksgiving storm. Only potential worry in my mind is the cold air pressing too much and keeping the storm suppressed, which personally I'm not TOO worried about given that the recent trend has been AWAY from such an outcome.

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  4. Areas East of the lakes are going to get buried with 1-2ft of Lake Effect Snow. Very jealous.

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  5. The potential storm for this weekend looks extremely similar to the Valentine's day storm we got back in 2007, a great track that provides some decent synoptic moisture, but more importantly lake enhancement. If it verifies, we could be talking about a moderate/heavy snowfall for everyone. Still a ways out though, but News 8 will undoubtedly be watching it closely. And as mentioned before, great post John!

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  6. Only one model (GFS) is showing a snow storm for our area this weekend. Let's not start wish-casting days away and then be upset if it stays South. I''ll feel better when short range data starts to come around.

    Scott

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 9, 2013 at 7:18 PM

      Not to mention, the GFS has been about as reliable as an '86 Yugo with eastern storms...

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  7. I saw the Euro and GEM and they both appear, to me, to have at least a decent storm here. The GFS is the most amplified and has the most snow. Am I missing something perhaps?

    Oh and, really? No wishcasting? Or getting upset about storms missing us? On this blog, of all places? That is quite an unrealistic request in my humble opinion :P

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    1. Ha ha...I see the 12Z EURO is coming around but I'm not sold just yet. Just the cautious side of me.

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  8. My bet is on a South and East track that will miss us. Looks like Philadelphia is going to get hit again with a half a foot of snow. I think they will be measuring the lake effect in feet East of the Lakes over the next few days. Very jealous.

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  9. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 9, 2013 at 7:35 PM

    I will report from my camp in NE Oswego County this weekend…in the Bulls Eye for lake effect...follow "Chris61484537" on Twitter for pics!

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  10. The storm in question is showing potential. For what it's worth the GFS was hinting at this one several days ago. Fingers crossed.

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  11. I will still not hold my breath. I hope it hits us, but I am sure the track will change 15 times before Sunday. In the mean time I am interested to see how much the tughill will get.

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  12. You are right Snowdog do not hold your breath. This will not hit us and if it does not a big deal. Storm moving way to fast for any big snow.

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  13. If reading right the 6z GFS put us in the 10-12 inch snowfall range by next Monday? The 12z running now I believe. Not sure what the latest EURO models have shown? Help please!

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  14. Storm to our South and East, lake snows to our SW and NE. Rochester in a snowless bubble. Right now it looks the Sunday system breaks into 2 pieces again. Main energy to our South and West again. That is the GFS unless I am reading it wrong.

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  15. I am also seeing that the models are showing the main area of moisture to our south and east. Of course this is Tuesday and we are talking about a computer trying to predict where it will be on Saturday/Sunday. No reason to pack it up and give up yet. Any amount of snow will be nice to cover the ground so it looks more like Winter/Christmas.

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  16. 12z EURO is a bomb! Going to change but there is potential for a big snowstorm some where!

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  17. The HP to the north is going to suppress the storm to the SE and leaving Rochester as watchers again sorry.

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  18. Idk, the models show a fairly complex storm system that is favorable for us to receive decent snow. IF the models verify, this is a classic Nor'Easter set up where two LP's combine into one, leaving amounts here at the mercy of how quickly the moisture jumps to the coast. I guarantee Scott and his team have a handle on this as there has got to be countless case studies on this type of setup. Glad there is at least something to talk about.

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  19. Weatherguy did you see the 12z EURO? Did I read it wrong or is this not a major storm setting up somewhere

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  20. At this point Too far South and East to be a big hit for Rochester. We are used to that though.

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  21. Snowdog, storms like this always have deeper moisture south and east, doesn't mean we won't get hefty snows... This storm definitely needs to be watched as the EURO and GFS are beginning to agree.

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  22. The Euro has the storm East of NYC which is too far South and East at this point. The GFS has the low occluding and weakening before it hits us and them transferring to the coastal low which the GFS has over long Island. It just does not look like a big deal for us. When it passes we could some good lake effect on a NW wind. Just my opinion.

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  23. Ok, agree to disagree Snowdog, but my house in Chili is getting buried right now!! Huge flakes coming down at a 1-2" rate.

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  24. I am also very impressed on how far reaching this Lake Erie lake effect has gone. I am in Western Wayne county and I have had 3 inches of snow and snowing moderately right now.

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  25. Maybe an inch in farmington so far. Guess I got my wish that grass would get covered! Anything more is a bonus. This weekend will at least give us something to blog about this week.

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  26. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 10, 2013 at 8:01 PM

    Penfield has received about 3-4" snow so far…very impressive for Lake Erie snow!

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  27. I was wondering what all this snow talk was about.. then I just looked out my window and even we got a few fluffy inches. Cool beans.

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  28. Well finally News 8 weighs in on this weekend. Scott not concerned about a storm. Said a general 3-6 inch snowfall on Saturday. No biggie!

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  29. Plus the hype machine at the other place not concerned either about this storm. He has been very calm about any potential. He usually pumps it up. Thus Snowdog defeats Weatherguy in round one of battle of the winter storm predictions.

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    1. You can't declare a winner 4 days before the game even starts!

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  30. We got about 4-5 inches of Lake Erie snow in Gates. Churchville got 6.5 inches. Nobody called this one.

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  31. Unless I am reading it wrong the Oz GFS has Rochester in the 10-14 inch range by Sunday morning. Am I reading that wrong? Help experts!

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  32. I believe the GFS is incorrect on the amount. In my opinion, 4-5 inches from the weak system will about do it with maybe a little lake enhancement for the counties bordering lake Ontario if we get a NE wind. Some lake effect on a NW wind after that Sunday and Monday. The system will not be a big deal for Rochester.

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  33. Time for Weatherguy to weigh in now? Snowdog sticking by his not a big deal for Rochester. What do you got Weatherguy? Your move.

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  34. Snowdog you are right on this snow for Saturday. As is Mr. Hetsko when he said 3-6 inches of snow. It is a minor storm at best.

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  35. I agree, Not much to worry about.....

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  36. What's everyone's definition of a "big deal" for snow? I'd imagine the answers vary quite a bit, given that we're all coming from varying points around WNY. I'm north of 104 in Greece, so we're used to getting more lake effect than the southern tier, for instance. I'd say that any time we get 8" or more of snow is a "big deal." That being said, I think it would all have to accumulate within a 24 hour window to warrant that label. Thoughts? What's your definition?

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  37. I'd say asshole deep to a 10 foot indian is a pretty good amount!

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  38. Well in true Rochester fashion we got a few inches of snow out of nowhere last evening. That's how we get most our snowfall... Not big storms.

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  39. This storm is getting weaker with each model run. NBD is the feeling.

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  40. In Avon we got...........

    ONE INCH!!!!!!!!!!!

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  41. Even the GFS has cut back on amount for this weekend. It will be NBD. Winter Weather advisories at most followed by Lake Effect advisories.

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  42. I wonder how much the Tug Hill has received so far. They are getting buried. Same East of Erie.

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  43. I believe still way to early to throw in the towel on this one. I think it could be a decent sized storm with 8-10 a possibility with lake enhancement maybe more. Things will change a few times the next 2 days. I wonder what news 8 thinks?

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  44. Scott said on his 4:00 weathercast only a few inches for all Saturday. He is set for sure that this is NBD because he said it last night too.

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  45. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 11, 2013 at 6:07 PM

    Tug Hill snow amounts:

    Redfield (NE Oswego Co.) 36"
    Turin (on Tug Hill, Lewis Co., 1500 ft elev.) 45"
    Lacona (northern Oswego Co) 35"
    Altmar (Oswego Co) 25"
    Glenfield (east slope of Tug Hill, Lewis Co) 28"
    Old Forge (Adirondacks, east of Tug Hill) 16"

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    1. Where do you find these snow totals??

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 12, 2013 at 6:25 PM

      National Weather Service via a Twitter retweet from Ch. 9 in Syracuse

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  46. What does everyone else think? No big deal or several inches. To me no big deal means normal snow nothing major. If no big deal Rand 6 inches plus or minus I'm happy. I Dont expect a blockbuster everytime a storms comes.

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  47. Snow all around Rochester. I thought the snow band was going to move South. Does not look like it is doing that.

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  48. We have bare ground here in Hamlin. I am not worried the winter is early and we will all get our share this year. It was just a few days ago people were saying no snow on the way and a much below average Dec. snowfall. Now we have snow in the forecast right through the extended period. We just have to sit back and wait and see what winter wants to give us.

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  49. Maybe we'll get lucky and it will miss us entirely this weekend. Most of us need this continuous shoveling like a hole in the head.

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  50. Oz GFS looks good I believe. I think we are looking at close to a foot if we get some lake enhancement. But what do I know? Tomorrow's runs will be key.

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  51. Right on schedule Hamlin has bare ground no longer. Time to go to work a push around about 6-7 inches of the snow.

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  52. A foot what are you looking at? 4 or 5 inches tops from this weak storm.

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  53. Yes maybe a foot a tad high but I still feel that the snow ratios could be 15:1 and thus I think 8-10 inches not out of the question.I am sure News * will weigh in later. They have been busy with LES. What was Scott talking about last night when he said after January 1st News 8 will no longer be doing the news on Fox at 10:00?

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  54. A whopping 1/2 " in Gananda, Western Wayne county. The band did not push too far South.

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  55. Snowdog sounds like your thinking nothing big this weekend?

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  56. Yes, I do not think it will be a BIG deal. 2-4 from the weak system and then maybe some minor lake effect after on a NW wind. NBD

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  57. Well, I could be wrong. Special Weather statement out of Buffalo. I hope I am.

    A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY DURING THE
    WEEKEND.

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  58. Waiting to hear what news 8 thinks because as I have said believe we will get over 6 inches at least and closer to 10 by Sunday morning. The latest GFS supports that is what we will have on the ground. Unless I am totally reading it wrong. Where is Weatherguy?

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  59. To the post about Fox news not continuing with Scott etc...13WHAM will be taking over Fox news and its programming as of January first. I read an article on it, it was some deal that was made. WROC only had the rights to it from 2005 until now or something like that. 13wham will be doing the 10 oclock news now. I wouldn't expect any change in this blog since WROC is still here.

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  60. What is the time frame for this storm? Starting Late Saturday Night?

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 12, 2013 at 6:28 PM

      Sat AM thru wee hours of Sunday morning, possibly longer with wrap around lake effect.

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  61. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 12, 2013 at 6:30 PM

    Put me down for a 8-10" snowfall. It has some moisture to work with and lots of cold air.

    FYI - brief warm up next weekend, then cold again. Possibly 40-50 F for a short period of time.

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