After a breezy, warm Thursday a cold front will change all that slowly but surely late this afternoon & more so later tonight, as colder & colder air will ooze in from the west. At the same time the colder air is slowly deepening across the area the cold front will be stalling out across the Eastern part of the state allowing a weak wave of low pressure to ride up along the front later tonight into early Friday. With this weak wave a batch of steadier precipitation will build in & likely initially will begin as a little rain &/or a mix, but I believe the lower levels of the atmosphere will become cold enough for all, or mainly wet snow during the wee hours of Friday morning & a slushy coating to an inch or two could very well fall for the Rochester area southwest bound, while a 1 to 3" accumulation is possible where the heavier precipitation is expected to occur through early Friday. The result could be a somewhat slick & sloppy ride into work & school, especially on secondary roads, bridges & overpasses. This will not be a big deal, but just want to give you all a heads up.
Much of Friday will be snow free, but late in the day into Friday night, yet another wave, slightly stronger, will move up this stalled front & should deliver at least a little more snow to the area for Friday night tapering off late Friday night or Saturday morning. New data that just came in the last 2 or 3 hours is conflicting with regards to the amount, but at least another coating to an inch or two is possible with more to the south & east & maybe even here in Monroe County, including the Rochester area depending on the system's exact track. Either way it will be a cold pretty uneventful weekend with some flurries Saturday & maybe a little snow late Sunday, but the majority of weekend looks dry.
Another stronger system will probably move just to the west of us late Sunday night into Monday, which would lead to a little snow at the onset for a little while, but then would come a wintry mix & then some plain rain would evolve Monday morning, before ending later Monday. Stay tuned for updates from Scott & I through the weekend as we keep a close eye on the track of Sunday night & Monday storm system since it is still a few days out.
Have a nice afternoon & night WNY!