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Thursday, December 5

At Least a Little Snow Returns

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a breezy, warm Thursday a cold front will change all that slowly but surely late this afternoon & more so later tonight, as colder & colder air will ooze in from the west.  At the same time the colder air is slowly deepening across the area the cold front will be stalling out across the Eastern part of the state allowing a weak wave of low pressure to ride up along the front later tonight into early Friday.  With this weak wave a batch of steadier precipitation will build in & likely initially will begin as a little rain &/or a mix, but I believe the lower levels of the atmosphere will become cold enough for all, or mainly wet snow during the wee hours of Friday morning & a slushy coating to an inch or two could very well fall for the Rochester area southwest bound, while a 1 to 3" accumulation is possible where the heavier precipitation is expected to occur through early Friday.  The result could be a somewhat slick & sloppy ride into work & school, especially on secondary roads, bridges & overpasses.  This will not be a big deal, but just want to give you all a heads up.
Much of Friday will be snow free, but late in the day into Friday night, yet another wave, slightly stronger, will move up this stalled front & should deliver at least a little more snow to the area for Friday night tapering off late Friday night or Saturday morning.  New data that just came in the last 2 or 3 hours is conflicting with regards to the amount, but at least another coating to an inch or two is possible with more to the south & east & maybe even here in Monroe County, including the Rochester area depending on the system's exact track.  Either way it will be a cold pretty uneventful weekend with some flurries Saturday & maybe a little snow late Sunday, but the majority of weekend looks dry. 

Another stronger system will probably move just to the west of us late Sunday night into Monday, which would lead to a little snow at the onset for a little while, but then would come a wintry mix & then some plain rain would evolve Monday morning, before ending later Monday.  Stay tuned for updates from Scott & I through the weekend as we keep a close eye on the track of Sunday night & Monday storm system since it is still a few days out. 

Have a nice afternoon & night WNY!


58 comments:

  1. The upcoming pattern really doesn't look all that compelling to me. Cold but dry outside of the southern tier and tug hill region.

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  2. The precipitation shield looks farther north and west on the radar than the forecast models show it. It looks to me that the forecasted snow totals should be shifted farther north and west into western NY. I could be wrong that's for sure. Maybe 1-3 in Monroe Orleans and Wayne tonight we will see in the morning. I am getting excited about the upcoming cold and LES next week. If we get a few troughs to swing through next week they could shift LES around northern towns south of Ontario might have a shot at some decent LES.

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  3. Scotts forecast tonight showed LES south and West both Wednesday through Friday of next week. His forecast did not look good for snow for the Rochester area. I bet some towns East of the lakes get buried next week with 1 to 2 ft of fluff while most of us see very little.

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    1. Yes the big totals will be in the tughill and well southwest of Rochester. However, I can see lake shore towns getting measurable snows off the lake next week.

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  4. I also think Friday nights totals for western NY and the Roc area are on the low side they might have to be raised to 2-4. Everything looks to be farther north and west. 00Z NAM model has shifted north west from earlier runs we will see.

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  5. I hope we get something to cover up this brown muddy grass.

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    1. If nothing else at least the mud is going to freeze up next week that is almost certain. I guess we will have to wait and see about the snow.

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  6. I has wrong that is for sure. No snow last night. Looks like not much tonight either. I am still hopeful for some LES next week.

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  7. I got a dusting. Whoo hoo!!!! Not much coming unless you are in a lake effect area east of the lakes next week. It will be cold for all for sure.

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  8. Bring on the cold tho my two dogs are killing the yard

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  9. After next week we appear to be going into more of a zonal flow with near average temps. In other words: bore galore.

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  10. Ho hum. December starting off boring. White Christmas not looking too good.

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  11. Winter over in Rochester

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  12. Lol let's not even talk about Christmas yet, and especially not the rest of winter. December 6th is wayyyyyy too early for any of that, unless of course you're that "spring is coming super early" troll from last winter...

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  13. Hey Anon 12:31 r u not the person who said active weather coming the next few weeks? Wrong and wrong again.

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    1. Actually I'm not. It's impossible to prove, but rest assured I am not that person. I was the guy who kept yammering about the trend being our friend.

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  14. How come the weather channel has us in the ice graphic on their maps?

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  15. Call me crazy, but it looks on radar like that moisture slug is tracking farther north than forecasted. Either that or I'm not seeing it right.

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  16. Not going to hit Rochester. A dusting at most here if that. It will slide to our South and East.

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  17. Models are still hinting at a fairly active weather pattern until further notice. I really think we will see at least one more decent snowstorm before Christmas, but that's just me. And whoever is saying winter is over, it's only December 6th and we're above average on snowfall. Oh, and winter hasn't even officially started yet!

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  18. The nearest potential storm threat in any model is 8 days from now. Needless to say I'm not holding my breath.

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  19. Woke up to a BIG whopping dusting. Woo hoo!!!! Funny how areas in the South have seen over a foot from this storm and the North barely anything. The system on Sunday/Monday looks weak at best. It will split into 2 pieces-one to our West and one to our east. We will be lucky to see an inch out of it before it changes to light rain or drizzle. The lake effect next week will hit areas east of the lakes on a continuous West wind. Most of us will see nothing. As far as the next storm I am not holding my breath like anon states above. I know it is early still and not even winter but year after year I see the same pattern over and over again. Storms love to go West of us or to far South and East. That is the prevailing storm track. We have to rely on the lakes to give us our snow. At least I can get some yard work finished up this weekend.

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  20. Not knowing much about weather but what is this talk about Winter Storm Cleon? Is it going to miss us as most storms do?

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  21. Cleon has already happened. And yes, it did miss us as per usual.

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  22. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 7, 2013 at 12:17 PM

    ROC only gets 1-2 big storms per year, on average. We are too far west for east coast storms, and too far east for systems that ride up the spine of the Appalachians. So, the pattern that we are seeing is nothing new. A majority of the snowfall here is derived from lake effect, clippers, and the occasional snow storm. We had three last year - two at the end of December, one in February. Further east, they get nearly all of the big storms - but little in between. It will snow hard, shut everything down, be all over the news as a result of large media markets, then it will warm up and weeks will go by before more snow falls. We get nickeled and aimed here 9 out of 10 winters. If you want to be in the path of big snow storms, statistically this is not the place to be.

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  23. Well stated Chris. We definitely get nickel and dimed in Rochester and usually miss the BIG storms. We also miss out on the BIG lake effect events since we are not in a Snowbelt. We are often spectators to everything. It is amazing that we average 100" per year. Nickel and dime stuff adds up.

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  24. Areas East of both lakes will get buried this week while Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse will see very little. The heavy lake effect snow will be the big news this week. Not much else going on and no storms in sight.

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  25. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 7, 2013 at 12:55 PM

    Last February, I was at my cabin in NE Oswego Co. I saw lake effect in a totally different way than what I was used to as a lifelong resident of ROC. On February 21, it started snowing moderately. And it didn't stop…until 24 hours later. 30 inches of snow later, we were buried. After shoveling off the roof, the snow was half way up the first floor windows. The most amazing part was the STEADINESS and consistent rate of the snowfall. Never did it snow so hard you couldn't see, nor was there anything but a light wind. It just snowed steady and moderately for a LONGGG time. In ROC, LES comes in waves, sometimes heavy, sometimes light, sometimes nothing. That's the effect of multiple bands with varying intensity. With 193 miles of lake in front of it, northern Oswego County is in the Bulls Eye for lake snows, and upsloping makes the lake snow even that much more efficient. From the lakeshore in Oswego Co. to the highest point in the far corner of the town of Redfield, the elevation climbs nearly 2,000 feet. Redfield averages 250" of snow per year. My cabin, about 8 miles south and west of Redfield, officially receives 185" per year.

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  26. Both Buffalo and Syracuse could get brief hits from the lake effect if the wind backs and/or veers enough. We're pretty much SOL though. Such is life in Soviet Rochester.

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  27. Not trying to one-up Chris or anything, but when I lived in Buffalo there was a day in November where 2 feet of lake snow fell in just 6 hours, centered right on top of rush hour. Some cars were stuck in one spot for 3 days, and my Thanksgiving break started 2 days early. One year later, 7 feet fell in 5 days starting Christmas Eve, including nearly 3 feet in a 24 hour span. Additionally, my younger sister was born in the middle of a lake effect storm that brought 42 inches in a little over a day. One of two vivid memories from that time of my life was walking across the hospital parking lot with my dad to go see her. Couldn't see a thing outside of a 50 foot radius. Not trying to turn the discussion away from Rochester weather, just had to share some stories since they seemed relevant. But compared to what I've been through, Rochester lake effect is really boring. That's okay though because Buffalo gets the shaft from big eastern snowstorms about 10 times as often as Rochester does. Example: V-Day 2007. Almost all of Upstate NY, much of northern New England, about half of PA, large parts of the lower Midwest and the entirety of Lake Ontario's south shore get well over a foot. Buffalo gets 4 inches. Most frustrating storm of my life -_-

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    1. One of the best storms of my life. I was in the Adirondack high peaks climbing Mt. Colden the day after V-day 2007. The Snowpack was higher than the trees once I got up to about 4000ft. Even with snowshoes on you could take one step and sink up to your chest in fresh powder. It was my first winter trip and I didn't follow the weather back then so I had no idea that those conditions weren't the norm or that the storm that had just hit was such a historical storm. I'm still waiting for another one of those...

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  28. Anyone know what this system will bring Sunday /Sunday night for us?

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    1. Light snow Sunday night transitioning to a light mix then possibly rain showers.

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    2. Pretty much a non event.

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  29. It looks like we are going to have bare ground around here for awhile. Looks like a pretty boring 7-10 days at least.

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  30. Be patient something brewing a week or so from now. Just hang in there and get your snow boots ready.

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  31. I'd hedge closer to 7 days. Next weekend and beyond has potential.

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  32. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 7, 2013 at 5:10 PM

    Where did predicted warm up the week of 12/15 all of sudden disappear to? I thought we going to a zonal flow for a few days, not resulting in a severe warm up, but in the upper 30s. Does not appear in any long range forecast anymore.

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  33. Winter Weather advisories????? Are they serious. We will be lucky to see an inch of snow out of this before it changes to light drizzle. This is so minor it is not even funny. I also do not see any storms in the models at all. I know some of you said next weekend, but I do not see it. I think it will be very quiet this month with very little snow. I think November(13") will end up with more snow than December. Just my opinion. I hope I am wrong.

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  34. Talk about jumping the gun holy cripes. It's only December 8th, take a chill pill, next you'll be telling us you've given up on the whole winter XD

    The WWA is for ice accretions of up to a tenth of an inch, snow has nothing to do with it. And I just took a glimpse at the 06z GFS and saw three different storms in or near the region starting around Day 7. At that range, the fact they appear at all is a good thing.

    For the record, in the past 30 years November has been snowier than December a whopping 2 times, and the last time was 1996. So based on recent climatology I wouldn't bet any farms on that happening.

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  35. Sunny and 60s the next 7-10 days. Winter is over and the sky is falling. Calm down Snowdog or will have to rename you Negativedog. Keep an eye on next weekend and beyond.

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  36. A little birdie just informed me that it has begun snowing in State College, PA, ahead of schedule. Storm is also overachieving quite a bit in the Mid Atlantic region. If this translates to our region later on, our minor event could become a bit less minor.

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  37. That little birdie should have told you the storm is moving SE and will not do anything in Rochester.

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    1. So how's the weather in Trollsville today?

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  38. The same as in your world just more realistic. Not spouting about birdies that are way off base. "Our minor event could become a bit less minor". Really do not make up hopeful not realistic things to scare people.

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    1. And how is going from maybe a half inch of snow to maybe an inch of snow going to scare anyone? Exactly, it isn't. And the storm is clearly moving Northeast not Southeast. This is how I know you live in Trollville. Don't be so obvious next time buddyboy.

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  39. Yikes a half inch to a full inch!!!! That is certainly a bit less minor ha ha ha. Thanks for the stupid/waste of time post. Sincerely Trollsville

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    1. "Thanks for the stupid/waste of time post."

      Oh the irony...

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  40. Yike. A lot of hostility on this blog. The storm is doing as the models predicted. One piece is going West and the other South and East. We will be lucky to see a flurry out of this. The very weak system is breaking up as it heads towards us. This will be non-event. This week looks very boring for snow lovers.

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  41. Dude, cool it. We're going to see flurries at the very least, probably T-1" for most locations. Small stuff, but better than nothing. Ya we get it, the next week is gonna be the most boringest week ever, no need to mention it every two hours.

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  42. Dude, relax. Winter Weather advisories will be cancelled later today or this evening. A trace to an inch is way to high. LOL.

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    1. I say the advisories stick due to the threat of freezing drizzle, that's why they were issued to begin with. T-1" of snow is perfectly reasonable.

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  43. Scott is going with T-2". Saw it on twitter.

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  44. We will be more on the T side of things if that.

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  45. Pixie dust flakes now at my house. Frontogenesis is causing precip to begin developing, which will expand in coverage during the overnight. T-1" still looks good IMO.

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  46. Period of NW flow may bring lake snows into the ROC metro for a time Wednesday night. Perhaps this week won't be completely dry after all.

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  47. Keep an eye on next Sunday/Monday timeframe.

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