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Wednesday, December 4

A Nice, Brief Thaw






Written by John DiPasquale:

After a nice Wednesday afternoon with sun & 40s to low 50s are felt, we will feel lows drop to between 40 & 45 this evening, before rising well into the 50s late tonight to around 60 Thursday!!  Yes, you can thank a storm hooking to the north & west for the unseasonably warm air we experience through much of Thursday. We will begin to cool back to the upper 40s to around 50 with a brisk wind, though, by day's end behind a cold front.  This cold front Thursday night will put the brakes on, as an area of weak low pressure develops along it.  At this point, it looks like the small wave will produce a little shot of a mixed bag, & maybe even a little rain, especially south & east, at the onset before pretty quickly transitioning back to snow for much of Friday morning.  A minor accumulation of wet snow appears probable for the first half of Friday, but that should do it.  Friday afternoon the snow should go away & readings will remain in the 30s.  The weekend temperatures will be mainly in the 20s with intervals of sun & a brisk wind expected Saturday & increasing clouds with a little snow possible late in the afternoon. 

The storm system that looks like it's going to affect us late Sunday through Monday morning will provide some precipitation, but the big question is what type?  The precipitation should begin as a little snow to end Sunday & then after minor accumulations of snow late Sunday through early Sunday night, a changeover to an icy mix will probably occur late Sunday night & then could very well flip to all rain by sunrise Monday.  If the projected storm's track changes then a change in the precipitation types & amounts will have to be introduced.  We will keep you all posted right through the weekend with updates. 

Have a great day & enjoy the nice weather out there this afternoon!


9 comments:

  1. Nothing like a little cold mud to get me in the Holiday spirit.

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  2. Not looking good for snow for Rochester. The cold air next week will have westerly winds which will favor areas East of the lakes and not the major cities. Some areas will get plastered with Heavy lake snow but not most of us. Another channel also has mentioned that the 3rd week of December will be mild. This next system for Sunday/Monday looks more wet than white.

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  3. Anyone else excited about the LES research that is about to get started here in Rochester? I would LOVE to be a volunteer in the project. Hook me up news 8?

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  4. FWIW (which isn't much), the 18z GFS has mostly snow with the Sunday/Monday system. About 3-5 inches worth in fact.

    Having lived in the Buffalo area for the first 18 years of my life, I can say with conviction that prolonged westerly flow lake effect events rarely stay westerly though the entire duration. Ususally a shortwave or two rolls by that backs the flow to SW for a time, which brings the snow into the Buffalo area and, if the winds are strong enough, into the Rochester area as well. It's also distinctly possible that the cold air initially arrives on a SW flow. So I wouldn't discount the possibility of our area getting a brief hit or two from Lake Erie fluff next week.

    As for the third week of December, I've been reading that there will be warmup during that time, but it will be transient with a rather speedy return to cold.

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  5. Snow from last week is pretty much gone now. Back to boring green and mud. Hopefully it will get replenished. A SW wind will hit Buffalo but usually only hits the western edges of Rochester, not usually metro and east and is usually not that significant for us. Someone will get buried by lake effect next week and it looks to be the standard snow belts east of both lakes on a West wind. Unless the winds veer to the NW with a front Rochester will get bypassed. That is not a surprise though. Rochester is not in a Snowbelt area.

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  6. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 5, 2013 at 6:24 AM

    Typically, Buffalo gets more snow than Rochester in December because these late fall systems tend to be warmer (SW & W winds) that favor Lake Erie snow. As winter kicks in, the more common flow is out of the NW, favoring the ROC metro. I believe the 30 year average has ROC at 100" and BUF at ~93", so we end up with more snow than they do in the end.

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  7. Additionally, our somewhat closer proximity to the coast and much closer proximity to Lake Ontario can result in a large disparity when coastal storms happen, with Rochester almost always receiving more snow, sometimes a lot more.

    Interesting northward shift in the NAM for the Friday wave, which now has a solid snow shield moving through our region. Euro is still furthest south out of all the models. Not feeling too good about the storm early next week, looks like more of a rainer to me right now. Still plenty of time left however. I also stumbled across this in the AFD:

    "INDEED IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE NEXT WEEK COULD BE QUITE A SNOWY ONE FOR MANY AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AS THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR...CYCLONIC FLOW...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE WINTRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS."

    I don't really like the use of "many areas" as it would imply that most of the region is down for significant lake effect. While most of us should see at least a little snow through the middle of next week, I'm not sure I buy the notion of "quite snowy" for places outside of the favored westerly flow lake effect zones.

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  8. It depends if the winds are westerlt or NW.

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  9. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 5, 2013 at 7:11 PM

    Looks like Oswego and Lewis counties will get the brunt of it…get set up for snowmobile season, which opens Dec. 9.

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