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Sunday, January 5

BITTER BLAST ON THE WAY


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

An area of low pressure will tonight track just West of Lake Erie.  This deepening low will whip winds up over 40 mph briefly overnight as colder air begins to surge East.  Temperatures will plummet during the daylight hours on Monday which will begin to fire up the Lakes.  Because the winds will be so strong from the WSW Monday and Tuesday, I feel that our area will get several inches of snow off of the Lake Erie single band.  We saw an example of this in December with a similar set up.  A lake snow advisory is in effect for this possibility.

More importantly, dangerous wind chill values will be felt Monday night and all day on Tuesday.  The apparent feel to the air will be between -15 to -30 at times, air that can cause frostbite within 10 to 15 minutes time to exposed skin.  Strong wind will also drastically reduce visibility in areas of snow.

Cold air eases by Thursday with signs of a modest January thaw taking hold by the weekend.

29 comments:

  1. Thanks for the post Scott! One question I believe there is a high wind warning for Monroe county from 1:00am to 10:00am tomorrow. Some have said maybe 60mph winds? Do you think this is a concern tonight?

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  2. Thanks Scott!

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  3. Thanks Scott, do you see the LES band making it as far north as Hamlin?

    I am HOPING the LES band makes it that far north, I have my doubts though. Brockport maybe as far north as it will make it. It will take a southwest wind to get it to Hamlin, which would put Orleans county in advisory level snow. It may be close. Hard to pin point at this time.

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  4. Do you think the snow will make it to Fairport area? If so when do you think Monday pm or into Tuesday ?

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  5. No western counties in Monroe.

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  6. Another outlet Monday going to be very interesting in Rochester. Roads are wet and they are going to rapidly freeze with black ice real bad.

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  7. If its that windy once the precip stops roads will dry fairly quickly in daylight hours you may get some slick spots tho

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  8. Not buying that dangerous cold getting far enough east to impact us. To the west of us it will be brutal. Our wind chills with be minus 10 at worse.

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    1. In order for that to happen our low temps would need to end up 10-15 degrees above the forecasted numbers given the expected wind speeds. That's simply not going to happen, period. Wind chills will be far below -10.

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    1. This isn't one of those "wait and see" situations. Wind chills WILL be dangerous at times across much of the region even if temps stay a little above the forecasted numbers. I say this as someone who's normally very patient, that's how certain I am about this.

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  10. Thank God this cold air will not last long. Back into the 40's by the weekend.

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  11. The pattern this winter seems to be very progressive. We finally get a good snowpack for a few days and that we get a big warm-up and it melts away. Not much snow left on the ground right now. It looks like January will be the same YO YO affect. Keeps it interesting for sure.

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  12. Still thinking wind chills for the city will be around minus 10 at its worst tonight and tomorrow. I think there is a little over reaction based on the temperatures in the Midwest.

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    1. lol, the low tonight is -1, and the windchill is going to be -10 at its worst? stop it.

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  13. There are no potential storms on the horizon! In fact the 40s this weekend.

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  14. One thing is for sure! I is going to be colder than an ex-wifes heart tonight and tomorrow! Check on the elderly and be sure to get those pets inside! I hope they have sense to cancel classes so the kids are not waiting for buses!

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  15. Dear Maggie Brooks,

    Please cancel school tomorrow.

    Love the Kids and Teachers.

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  16. Scott do you think schools should close tomorrow? I keep hearing the word dangerous windchill from all the mets.

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    1. That's code for, "I would cancel. But my job is to give the information. The schools make the decision."

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    2. The official cutoff is -25 degrees windchill. Above that point, it is up to the schools to decide. At -25, the county executive usually asks the districts to close.

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  17. From what I see, the warm up is lasting about a week, and then it's back to solid winter weather again. Yeah I'd say schools should be closed tomorrow based on forecast wind chill values. I was at Dunkin Donut on Howard and Buffalo Rd. in Gates this morning, and there was a truck with a Snow Dog label on the blade. Would this be the one and only on this blog?

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  18. I again see it sunny outside and winds not strong where I am located. Do not think this is a big deal. Been saying minus 10 wind chill will be the coldest it gets in the city. South of the city it may get to minus 20.

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  19. I would think the school superintendents are consulting with the weather people about things.

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  20. We look to get into an extended period of above average temps with rain as the primary precipitation type. Maybe accuweather was not wrong. In about a week or so most of this snow will be gone except in the snowbelts of course.

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  21. Accuweather says the warm up lasts until next week, around Thursday.

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