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Monday, January 6

WIND CHILL WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY

Written by John DiPasquale:

Coldest air of the season will be blowing in literally!  Winds will be gusty through the start of Wednesday, & you combine winds of 15 to 30 mph with temperatures that will bottom out near 0 tonight & climb no higher than the upper single digits Tuesday, & it will feel like -15 to -30 region wide for a good chunk of tonight & Tuesday, hence the wind chill warning for all from 6pm this evening through 6pm Tuesday.  Dangerous to say the least!  Frostbite can happen in minutes with these types of wind chills & temps.  Stay inside if you can tonight & Tuesday, if you can't bundle up & give yourself a little extra time to heat up the vehicle before heading into work. 

As far as lake snows go...Significant snows of a foot or more in the most persistent snows will likely come off Lake Erie late today through Tuesday across South-Central Genesee, Wyoming & possibly Western Livingston counties.  The rest of us will see limited lake snows with some squally weather at times late today & at times tonight, which should leave us with a coating to 3" or so tonight for many, including Rochester, & maybe another coating to an inch or so tomorrow. 

The chill will begin to ease Wednesday & really let up late in the week & over the weekend we could be talking about some rain showers & 40s again!  Stay tuned for updates on the cold, snow & eventual warm up this week.

Have a great night & do what you can to stay warm everyone!

63 comments:

  1. I almost look forward to an extended warmup after this...tracking all of the action over the past 2 months is getting tiresome lol

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  2. Not sure how your air temperature can be 0 and winds 15-30 mph and yet the wind chill is only minus 15? Seems like it would be at least minus 25?

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  3. Like I said minus 10 in the city. This is not a major issue and schools will be open.

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    1. Okay I'll bite...explain the reasoning behind your notion that this cold blast is being tremendously overblown. Because if that's truly the case then we're on the cusp of witnessing a forecast bust of many times greater magnitude than any other in history.

      By the way, those lower wind chills of -30 are for overnight and into the early morning hours.

      Also by the way, wind chill values in nearby Midwestern cities have already dipped below -20...

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  4. Did you see John's map? 7am minus 15 in city? Sodus minus 7 and Hamlin minus 3? Not sure that is historic cold for 7am?

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    1. Sodus and Hamlin are right along the lake where temps will be modified. I'm not sure I buy that model map either...the low temp forecasted by News 8 is 1 degree, which coupled with their forecasted 25 mph wind should yield wind chills in the -20 to -25 range according to this chart:

      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/windchill/

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  5. So you no longer buy the map and thus do not buy that you are on the cusp of witnessing a forecast bust of greater magnitude than any other? Remember I said minus 10 in the city and surrounding counties. You keep referencing noaa and that is close to accuweather with bad weather forecasts

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    1. I'll make sure to remember that for when you end up being wrong tonight and tomorrow morning.

      By the way, the only wind chills above -10 on that map are along the lakeshore.

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    2. Why debate with anyone that won't even stand behind their prediction with a name? News 8 and NWS are all that matters.

      Andy

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  6. Sodus Central has already closed schools for Tuesday

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  7. They closed at negative 7 on John's map. All districts should close tomorrow and be safe.

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  8. Penn Yan closed tomorrow

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  9. Back in the day, they never closed the schools. I clearly remember waiting downtown for the Clinton bus to McQuaid, and looking up and seeing -14 on the time/temp clock, lol.

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  10. Back in the day you played football with concussions too and they gave you salt tablets when it was 90 out because they thought it was helpful. We have come a long way with knowledge. The smart/safe thing to do is close all the schools like many places have done in the Midwest. This is not brutal cold weather we get often.

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  11. Many school districts already closed for tomorrow.

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  12. John,

    I don't buy it only minus single digits wind chill in Hamlin. If you have ever been in Hamlin you would know when the wind blows 25 mph in the city it blows 40 mph in the open fields of Hamlin. Wind speed has a greater affect on wind chill values than temperature does. Also the big lake to the north WILL NOT modify air temps in Hamlin if they are blowing out of the SW direction. The map is flawed BIG TIME. VERY COLD IN HAMLIN.

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  13. If it was a NW wind lakeshore communities would be warmer. If anyone is warmer with a WSW wind it is closer to lake Erie, NOT south of lake Ontario. VERY misleading at this point.

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  14. Friday night with calm winds we dropped to minus 4 when the city was minus 6. I live one mile from the lake. Very little influence without northerly wind.

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  15. Misspoke early Temp affect wind chill value more than speed if you compare 1mph to 1deg f.

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    1. I took the derivative of the fomula used to calculate wind child to get the rate of change. It depends on Temperature and Windspeed. So it varies and I put it in a spreadsheet here.

      https://app.box.com/s/0bjatx6yhpw68jupv5yv

      At 5 degrees and 20 mph wind. The Windchill drops
      1.31 degrees for every degree and
      0.43 degrees for every mph increase in windspeed.

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  16. I think this snow is going to be over done. Air is so cold and dry, its gonna limit lake effect.

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  17. Trying to get a good read on the snow expected for overnight. Latest heard 6 to 10 inches for Rochester/north of Thursday-- is that correct.

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  18. David, that doesn't make any sense... And that windchill map is just a single point in time, wind doesn't stay at one speed all the time!

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  19. Scott, WE ALREADY have an average wind chill in the last 20 min of minus 2deg f in Hamlin. Your map is VERY misleading.

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  20. Cold air being generally dry is never an inhibiting factor to lake effect. It's all about the temp difference between the lake and the air aloft, combined with the relative humidity. Warm lake heats the boundary layer therefore raising its maximum saturation point, thus it can hold more moisture which is picked up from the lake. That moisture is carried up into the colder air, which has a lower maximum saturation point, and the moisture is forced to condense into clouds as a result. These clouds grow rapidly and eventually precipitate. If the relative humidity of the cold air is already high (near 100 percent), the clouds form more quickly and readily, regardless of dewpoint, because the cold air is already primed with moisture. If the temp difference is very high, like what we have now, the boundary layer will be able to load up on much more moisture than the cold air aloft can handle, and thus when the moisture in the warm layer rise up into the cold layer a lot of it will be forced to condense. We currently have both of those conditions being met, the only inhibiting factor right now (and it will be temporary) is shear. That will change by later this evening.

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  21. Erie, Genesee and Wyoming Counties have been upgraded to Blizzard Warnings.

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  22. Latest AVERAGE wind chill in Hamlin, MINUS 8.

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  23. Very jealous of the counties West of us. It looks like Buffalo will surpass Rochester and Syracuse in snowfall for the year. Not much snow for Rochester for the next 7-10 days at least.

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  24. I would be jealous if I wasn't snack dab in the middle of it all. I really wish all of you could be here to see this, it's almost breathtaking.

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  25. extreme cold, dry air does limit lake effect in some scenarios. They talk about it all the time on TV and NWS.

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    1. That has more to do with RH than dewpoint. RH will be A-OK for this one. I can attest...my location in B-lo is getting absolutely smoked right now.

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  26. This will be history come Friday through next Tuesday when we are in the 40's with rain.

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  27. The NSW out of Buffalo has a detailed explanation on why we will warm up significantly by Friday and beyond.

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    1. January thaw..7-10 day relaxing of the pattern. I'm fairly confident that winter is going to return.

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  28. The average wind chill is now minus 13 in Hamlin. With snow and blowing snow. Very nasty night.

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  29. Whiteout in Hilton right now..

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  30. And the snow is done :-( I might take a ride to Oswego tomarrow

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  31. I90 is closed west of Rochester

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  32. Hamlin's current air temperature at 9pm 5 deg f with a wind out of the wsw at 25 mph making the current wind chill minus 17.

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  33. The upper level trough is now crossing Lake Ontario from the west. The passage of this trough will ramp up the already impressive LES band off of Erie. Quick burst of snow for everyone. The winds will also pick up even more after it passes.

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  34. RIT is officially closed on Tuesday. Now I've seen everything...

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  35. Boy was I wrong and bowing down to Anon 2:09 it is brutal outside. Hats off to you my friend now let us know when are we getting our next historic snowstorm?

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    1. What you should really be doing is taking your hat off to the NWS for forecasting this brutal cold.

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    2. Far too cold to take off my hat.

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  36. Wind chill is now minus 20 in Hamlin with more nighttime and cold air advection left to come. Les band off Ontario starting to take aim on the Tughill very impressive.

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  37. I am beginning to wonder if the Lake Erie LES band is feeling the effects of building ice cover. Open water must be getting less and less at the northeast end of Erie. LES off Ontario VERY Impressive. Temps down to 2 deg now as winds gust over 40mph in Hamlin. This is as about as harsh as it gets in WNY.

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  38. Cannot wait for the 40's coming up this weekend and beyond.

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  39. To windy to sleep in Hamlin. Temp is at lonely 1deg. Wind chill between minus 25-30 deg.

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  40. Some of the models have us near 50 on Saturday and Monday. Rapid snowmelt in areas getting dumped on right now. Most of us will see bare ground come Tuesday. What a turnaround. This seems to be the pattern of this winter. The YO YO affect.

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  41. If the above map was for air temp and not wind chill it would be right on. It is -3 deg. f with a current wind of 22 mph making a wind chill of -27 FAR cry from -3. VERY MISLEADING.

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  42. The Lake Erie band doesn't look all that impressive on radar, but a quick look at the Thruway webcams will tell a much different story.

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  43. no snow in Hilton, we can see bare ground thanks to the warm up, but it sure is COLD out there!! Definitely not just hype. The temp is -1 here, with windchills of -25. I have a lot to do today, but am tempted to just stay inside!

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  44. Anyone know how much Buffalo has received so far. They have had on and HEAVY snow all night and day. They will now lead the Thruway snow contest.

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    1. As of this morning only 3.8 inches at the airport. Amounts south of there are much higher owing to the band's placement much of the night, but it's sitting squarely over the airport right now. I'm guessing they'll finish the event with 12-18 inches.

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    2. Official totals so far:

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

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  45. Are these winds going to subside anytime soon?

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  46. Buffalo has been reporting Havey snow for 4 hours. They are getting hit hard. Meanwhile Rochester is sunny. Boring!!!!

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  47. Not sunny in Chili... been snowing lightly since last night, probably picked up an inch or two. Buffalo is due for snow, their snowfall totals for the past two years have been worse than Rochester...

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  48. The blog will now be quiet for the next 10 days or so with no big storms in sight. In fact maybe 50s on Saturday.

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  49. Interesting things can still happen during a thaw. In my experience most winter warmups end with high wind events...

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