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Friday, January 10

FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING

Written by John DiPasquale:

After enduring a brutal chill Tuesday into Wednesday the moderation continues today, as highs get well up into the 30s to near 40 with a southerly breeze and mainly dry conditions this afternoon after the coating to an inch or two of snow late last night & this morning region wide.

The January Thaw will kick into full gear late tonight and Saturday when temperatures climb into the upper 40s to low 50 by daybreak Saturday behind a warm front due to move through tonight!  Winds will crank up from the south pushing the mercury well above average with some rain & significant snow melt, which may cause some minor flooding in spots, mainly due to ice jams.  A cold front will blow through late Saturday & winds will really blow and cool to more seasonable levels later Saturday night into Sunday, but remain above average with highs around 40 to end the weekend.  There could also be a couple of passing rain &/or snow showers around to end the weekend.

Early next week will feature a brief warm up again, before we turn colder & more wintry for the middle & possibly end of next week.  Stay tuned & have a great Friday & weekend bloggers!!

 

57 comments:

  1. No mention of a storm next week.

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    1. "...before we turn colder & more wintry for the middle & possibly end of next week."

      Definitely hinting at snow potential with that phrase.

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  2. Looks like the 12z EURO is the same today as yesterday. It takes the LP up through CPA and CNY. If that is the case would that not be a favorable track for us?

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  3. As it currently stands in the GFS/Euro, the Tuesday system would start as a soaking rain, then change over to snow.

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  4. Great I hate a soaking rain in the winter.

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    1. Still plenty of time for changes.

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  5. Scott's mention of a possible another arctic intrusion in the future according to the models has disappeared. Cold coming back but not brutal and that is good.

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  6. I'm interested in Hearing from HP, weatherguy, etc on what you all think may happen next week and beyond.

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    1. I am still leaning towards the EURO forecast. It still appears there is the potential for a significant snow storm somewhere from the Midwest to the northeast. The GFS has started to show LP developing on the east coast. The EURO has been the most consistent run to run. At this point it is something to watch and nothing more.

      It also appears the pattern will remain active. Both the GFS and the EURO have very potent northern branch systems swinging through. How far south do they swing may determine the severity of the cold and how much snow we get. It should be an interesting week anyways.

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  7. The EURO has significantly backed down on the intensity of the low just like the last 2 storms. Does not look to be that impressive. The GFS still does not show much at all.

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  8. Just when the EURO was showing consistency it has changed it's solution all together. It has went more towards the GFS solution. The southern branch LP comes up the east coast not merging with northern branch. The northern branch LP passes south of the area. It still looks to be an active snowy pattern but not showing a significant snow storm at this point. It's still something to watch no model showing consistent solution.

    They have consistently shown a very potent clipper around Friday. It could provide accumulating snow along with VERY windy conditions. Very active for sure.

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  9. Yes everything went bad on the models. We are pretty much storm free until at least February. Clipper here and there for nickel and dime stuff with the favorite east of the lakes getting LES.

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    1. There is no way on Earth anyone can say this with any ounce of scientific or logical backing. February is 20 days away, the furthest out in time any operational model goes is 15 days and most of them only go out to 10. Yeah the next week or so doesn't look great for big storms, but you can't honestly say the same for the entire rest of the month at this point. There's just zero evidence to support such a statement. Remember also, there have already been two occasions just in the past month where people were saying no storms would happen, only for a substantial one to happen within a week (December 14th, January 2nd).

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  10. Disagree with you HP the clipper is going north of us and not a big deal. Do not agree about being very active coming up. in fact pretty boring the next few weeks our winter may have come early and left for the year early.

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  11. We were doing such a great job avoiding any bittercasting until today. Now we have people saying winter is already over and it's only January 11th -_-

    This does indeed look like a frequent clipper pattern right now, and will probably remain that way during the next week to 10 days as increasingly colder arctic intrusions make their presence felt. It'll be a temperature roller coaster during that time as well, with more persistent cold not occurring until late month. What happens afterward is anyone's guess at this point.

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  12. Boring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  13. Still not ready to give up on a storm for the Weds/Thursday timeframe. Still a lot of uncertainty and there were previous runs on the EURO where LP tracks up through CPA and CNY. Still worth at least keeping an eye on it.

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  14. WPC is talking about the jet flow becoming more meridional (amplified) at some point in the forseeable future. This bodes well for significant storm potentials.

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  15. The pattern IS going to be active. It does not take major storms to make an active pattern. There will be many chances for snow and the cold still looks to build in. I don't see it being boring. We must be looking at different models.

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  16. I still think January will end up ABOVE average snowfall. We will be adding to snow totals very regularly in the coming days.

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  17. I hope so. This rain and temps in the 50's in January are ridiculous.

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  18. Geez Snowdog you talk like we never get 50s and rain in January. Even the infamously frigid January of 1994 had one day in the 50s. This is nothing more than a typical thaw.

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  19. I know. I just do not like it that's all. I know this happens all the time. I would just like one winter where we have snow on the ground the whole winter and it piles up with massive mounds. I now I am just dreaming but it would be nice. We just cannot seem to get a good snowpack and keep it for awhile.

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    Replies
    1. That would be awfully nice. Unfortunately, wall-to-wall cold is quite infrequent, and in a warming world is becoming even less frequent.

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  20. I agree with HP. We wont see any BIG storms develop but little weak clippers regularly and lake effect snows will whiten the ground again especially by the end of the week and into next weekend. Of course it depends on the wind direction on who sees the lake effect. Maybe the week after next it will become more active with bigger storms.

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  21. After Tuesday, it looks as though we will be locked into a wintry pattern until further notice...

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  22. Sunny and 75....what a great country tune! If only it were happening now........

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    1. I'd take that for a day or two, if only to warm the lakes back up and extend the lake effect season ;D

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  23. NBD this week an inch or two at best no storms on horizon the next 2 weeks.

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    1. Need I remind you what has happened every time someone has said something like that this season? I'll tell you what has happened: we've gotten a substantial storm within a week to 10 days. So unless you have a crystal ball or a time machine it's very unwise to be making declarations like this.

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  24. Not this time Anon 12:27!

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    1. Absolutely no way to be sure. Give me an accurate model suite that can forecast out to 2 weeks which shows no storms and then I'll choose to buy the notion.

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  25. Latest EURO still shows MANY opportunities for snow throughout the forecast period. Very active period still looks likely. Looks like a wintery pattern NOT boring.

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  26. Not sure HP where you are seeing that on the latest EURO? You can look out 5-7 days and see no precipitation for us? Not sure what you are seeing? Maybe weatherguy or snowdog can chime in on what they think.

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    1. I have been wrong a lot this winter. Time will tell.

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  27. Nothing on latest GFS run. I think you may be wrong again HP in fact I see signs of spring like conditions returning towards end of January and into February.

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    1. This is definitely not true. In fact much colder weather is forecasted to return later this month and February. Other channels have also hinted at this as well as the NWS out of Buffalo.

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    2. You wouldn't happen to be last year's "spring troll" would you Anon? Because all I'm hearing about that time period is that it will feature big time cold. In any event, ensembles do a much better job predicting the general pattern than any single operational model, so saying the GFS shows something towards the end of its run is like saying some 2 year old is predicting the Browns to win the Super Bowl next year.

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    3. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 12, 2014 at 7:13 PM

      Have you ever considered posting as "Analogous" rather than "Anonymous"?

      Delete
  28. I do not see a lot of snow. There will be very weak clippers that pass to our North mostly and bring light snow but not much. Lake effect could be a bigger issue for some depending on the winds. With the clippers passing to our north I think the prevailing wind direction will be West to SW not favoring the Rochester area. It will definitely be a progressively colder but with a lack of storms it will be a waste.

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  29. I'm not concerned in the slightest about any upcoming "boring" stretch. It's been a very active pattern for more than a month, so we were bound to see an extended (8-10 day) quieter period at some point. I say we simply bide our time while winter reloads.

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  30. Everyone's lawn will be white by Friday at the latest!

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  31. One inch can whiten up the lawn and we will be lucky to get that much by Friday looking at the models.

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  32. We will have to wait and see how much snow we will get. Track and intensity of multiple clippers in the coming week will dictate our accumulation. To say for CERTAIN one way or the other makes ZERO sense at this point.

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  33. I think an inch by Friday is more than do-able.

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  34. As I have been saying. I do not see much snow in the forecast this week. Just very light snow from clippers and lake effect after that. These clippers are going to move North and West of us which is not good placement for us. The lake effect will probably come on a West to SW wind not affecting the greater Rochester area. Next week and beyond may get more active. Otherwise I think bare ground will rule the roost this week.

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  35. You are correct Snowdog and next week and beyond looks quiet too. We had a hard early winter and signs are pointing to a calm warmer rest of the winter.

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    1. Name the signs..

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    2. The robin I saw and heard in my neighbor's tree on Monday morning.

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  36. Really boring stuff on models short and long term.

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  37. We are only 9" above normal for snow for the year now. It started so active with storms and now we are in a non-active period.

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  38. I would set the odds of the rest of winter being calm at between 0 and 1 percent based on the whopping zero signs of such a thing happening. Scott even tweeted an hour ago that the second half of January looks "snowy in #roc in general." Here is his outlook for the 2 week period from the 17th onward:

    https://twitter.com/scotthetsko/status/422820326829850624/photo/1/large

    Notice that he set the "big storm" bar to Low. This does NOT necessarily indicate a calm pattern as we do NOT need big storms to have an active pattern. Notice also how he set the "cold air" bar at Medium to High. So anyone yapping about a "calm warmer rest of the winter" can kindly shut the %$&# up for at least a few weeks.

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  39. From CPC regarding the 8-14 day period:

    "TODAY’S WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND SUGGESTS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD; THIS IS A RARE OCCURRENCE, CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE USUAL INCREASE IN MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER LEADS TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH THE MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE FORECAST TO RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN ITS FAVORED POSITION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS: THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM DAYS 10 TO 15 IS IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE."

    This is definitely interesting considering that the pattern depicted in the 8-14 day period is typically less amplified rather than more, due to uncertainty and smoothing of ensemble means. Yet here we see an increase in forecasted flow amplification from the 6-10 day period. Amplified patterns tend to be good for storminess, and during this time we are forecasted to be on the cold side of the pattern. Confidence in this outlook is indicated as 4 out of 5 (above average) with the only real uncertainty being the temp departure in the central US.

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  40. I want my snowstorms back. This pattern really sucks. BOOOOOORRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WHERE THE HECK DID WINTER GO??

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    1. Wow take a chill pill O___o it's been less than a week since we had brutally cold wind chills regionwide and a blizzard just to our west. Winter will return by late this week and be fully entrenched by later this month, just have a little patience.

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  41. It does feel like spring over the last several days but the cold will return. Not much snow but definately the cold.

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  42. I would love a fresh post from the news 8 team on a regular basis. But, as my Father always used to say, "Want in one hand and shit in the other to see what you get first"....

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