GETTING A LITTLE INTERESTING...
Written by John DiPasquale:
Cold & sunny today, but later Thursday into Thursday night a big, intensifying nor'easter will be sliding up the coast. The BIG question with this storm is where exactly is it going to track? Each of the last several forecast runs have been taking it a little further west siding with the EURO. With that said, we will certainly cloud up on Thursday, & POSSIBLY see a little snow from the storm Thursday night. At this time any accumulations would be very light at best, but more significant accumulations will be a distinct possibility in portions of CNY, which is not too far away. If this westerly trend continues over the next 24 hours we may need the shovels come Friday morning here too. At this point, though, very little will fall for us the way it looks as of early Wednesday afternoon. Eastern Finger Lakes & east of Lake Ontario could pick up at least a few inches. Stay tuned for the latest updates from Scott tonight & me tomorrow morning. Either way, it's gone come Friday morning with a little more snow possible from a clipper later in the day. Some lake snow will then likely fly late Friday night into the weekend, as it turns much colder & blustery.
Have a great afternoon bloggers!
Cold & sunny today, but later Thursday into Thursday night a big, intensifying nor'easter will be sliding up the coast. The BIG question with this storm is where exactly is it going to track? Each of the last several forecast runs have been taking it a little further west siding with the EURO. With that said, we will certainly cloud up on Thursday, & POSSIBLY see a little snow from the storm Thursday night. At this time any accumulations would be very light at best, but more significant accumulations will be a distinct possibility in portions of CNY, which is not too far away. If this westerly trend continues over the next 24 hours we may need the shovels come Friday morning here too. At this point, though, very little will fall for us the way it looks as of early Wednesday afternoon. Eastern Finger Lakes & east of Lake Ontario could pick up at least a few inches. Stay tuned for the latest updates from Scott tonight & me tomorrow morning. Either way, it's gone come Friday morning with a little more snow possible from a clipper later in the day. Some lake snow will then likely fly late Friday night into the weekend, as it turns much colder & blustery.
Have a great afternoon bloggers!
Boy this storm was oh so close for us!
ReplyDeleteBinghamton was just elevated from zero headlines whatsoever to a Winter Storm Warning. Amazing how chaotic this situation is less than 24 hours out. Winter Weather Advisories are as nearby as southern Cayuga County.
ReplyDeleteWell let's just hope it stays south and east of us
ReplyDeleteFor the most part it's going to. I don't think we're going to escape completely though, as a minor glancing blow appears increasingly likely.
DeleteAny lake enhancement with a north wind?
ReplyDeleteI've been entertaining the possibility of minor lake enhancement, but the air might be too dry for that.
DeleteCCCC still can shift another 75 miles anything is possible. We got Calvin Johnson out on the 4th down Hail Mary!
ReplyDeleteWe're less than 24 hours away, there won't be any shifts that large. There's a remote chance of having a shovel-able snowfall, but even if ol' Megatron comes down with the catch a lot will have to occur otherwise to get anything of substance.
DeleteIt will be a miss and I am ok with that.
ReplyDeleteThere will be a Blizzard miss in the Flower City within the next 2 days. Mark it down!
ReplyDeleteMy twitter feed has been blowing up with storm pictures from the Southeast all day long. Holy moly you'd think it was literally the end of the #@$#%$% world down there O___o
ReplyDeleteHow can you say this not a big deal for the South. To experience a snow and ice storm in the same time frame, and knowing they are not as prepared with plows, salt, etc. as we are in the North. So to see the many accidents (injuries), abandoned cars, and some deaths could occur. Don't make such a comment.
DeleteIt is a HUGE deal in the south when snow or ice come into the picture. They do not have the massive amounts of equipment to handle it. Only a handful of plow trucks. I lived in Nashville for 11 years so I know how it is down there. Up here, it is just another day when we get a snow storm because we have salt and we have the proper equipment to maintain the highways. Go on down there CCCC during a storm and you can see it first hand.
DeleteChris
Totally agree.
DeleteDoes anyone know how much snow we ended up with last year.
ReplyDelete78 inches.
Deletehttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php
Snowdog do not say you are ok with missing this storm. This was the BIG one and we missed our chance. Will not be another one of this magnitude this winter. Some places getting 20 inches with snowfall rates two to three inches per hour. I know you are not ok with the miss.
ReplyDelete"Will not be another one of this magnitude this winter."
DeleteUhm okay how do you know for sure? We have a month remaining for big storm opportunities. Don't even use next week's warmup as an excuse because it won't be around for very long.
"...we missed our chance."
No, "we" did not. We don't affect the weather, outside of man-made global warming which is more of a climate deal anyway.
B, you'd better look at your data. Lots of big storms have hit in March.
DeleteAnother big one not happening CCCC sorry. That warm-up is towards the end of next week and a few days into the following week. That brings us close to the end of February. The likelihood of getting all the elements needed for another blockbuster storm are slim and none. Slim just left town. We have a small side wager CCCC if I am right you are barred from the forum for the 2014/15 winter if you are right then I am. A deal?
ReplyDeleteThe odds of a big storm hitting us are rather slim at any time of the year, so the wager is clearly slanted in your favor. No deal. All I said was that the "chance" is still there.
DeleteI did a little count of how many daily snowfall records of 10 inches or more Rochester currently has, including last Wednesday. I came up with a total of 16 for March, which is more than any other month. February has 14, including a couple in the past 5 days. Besides, some of Rochester's greatest snowstorms have occurred in March. I'll list a few:
- The great storm of 1900 (40 inches)
- The Storm of the Century (23.2 inches)
- The double blizzard of 1999 (24 inches and 18 inches)
There was also one in March 1992 that put down almost 2 feet. And there was another that occurred at the tail end of February 1984 that lasted 5 days and dropped over 30 inches, most of which was during the first few days but still close enough to March to include here. Point being that you must not be at all familiar with climatology in upstate NY if you truly believe big storms are a tremendous rarity by the end of February.
"the past 5 days"
DeleteOops, that should be "last 5 days." My bad.
Ok fair enough. I have to ask you what would be the perfect track for us to be in the sweet spot of a HUGE storm?
ReplyDeleteIt really depends on the storm's nature, but typically you'd want it to track up along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. That doesn't happen too frequently, so many times we have to rely upon coastal systems having large precipitation shields and cold enough air for lake enhancement. The 1993 Storm of the Century tracked just offshore, but because it was so gigantic it tossed heavy snow as far west as Ohio. The V-Day Storm of 2007 tracked a little further offshore, but it also had a very large precipitation shield and very cold air to create lake enhancement. That system was also a Miller B type noreaster, which involve inland tracking lows that transfer to the coast and tend to produce more widespread snowfall. Another example: the storm of March 1960, which dropped 10-20 inches in the Lake Ontario counties, was a Miller B that eventually ended up near the 40N/70W benchmark, normally much too far east for us to get anything.
DeleteThere will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 2 weeks. Mark it down!
ReplyDeleteWhy does the radar look like this storm is pushing the precipitation further west towards us?
ReplyDeleteFYI nothing showing on the long range models but signs of spring. Bring on the warm temps and get winter over already. In fact we may not break 100 inches officially this winter after that great start.
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.pshares.org/files/2013/03/WRONG-face-slap-300x282.jpg
Deletehttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png
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We are just not in a good spot to get the BIG storms. We all must realize that. We are usually spectators to the BIG ones. I do not think we will hit 100" either. We are only at 72 which is pretty pathetic seeing how cold it has been. We will probably be in last place for the snowglobe thingy after albany gets over a ft today. All the snow we have now will be gone by next weekend with temps above average all next week. Hopefully winter rallies and we get above 100".
ReplyDeleteI don't thenk that the 3-4 feet of snow that I have piled on all sides of my driveway will be gone by next week, let along the 1 foot of snow on either side of my walk way. Plus if the snow were to melt that fast, what about flooding and flooded basements.
DeleteSnowdog, unless the number of inches in a foot has doubled since last night I really doubt Albany will pass us in the Golden Snowball from this one storm.
DeleteI think there's something you need to understand about particularly cold winters such as this one: they are rarely all that snowy relative to average. The immense degree of cold has done a fair job of suppressing the mean storm track for a good chunk of the season, which has left us high and dry for rather lengthy stretches. Furthermore, the lack of downstream blocking has not allowed for prolonged periods of heavy lake effect, so we've been lacking big time in that department. All things considered, it's actually pretty amazing that we're anywhere close to average at all. You'd think that with the persistently positive NAO, uncooperative AO and primarily negative PNA that we'd be running well below average right now.
Also, we won't be getting above average on temps until Wednesday.
DeleteWell CCCC again you do explain well but many things are after the fact. I believe you were the one that said last week the pattern was going to change to a more favorable snowy one? Something about the jet formations coming together? Idk in fact no one knows what will happen. I just get sick of all the predictions of pattern changes that will lead to storms rather that be AO, NAO or PNA.
ReplyDeleteI did say last week that things looked favorable for cold and snow to return...by late in the month. It's fair to say that no one "knows" what's going to happen, no one is clairvoyant after all. It's all about gathering evidence and interpreting it to come up with the most favorable scenario.
DeleteI also said, while posting anonymously, that a major storm pattern was brewing for early February in the East, not necessarily for Rochester. By the end of today the eastern U.S. will have gotten no fewer than 5 substantial snowstorms in a 16 day span, one of which hit Rochester hard. I'm not saying this to brag, I'm saying it to demonstrate a point: just because someone says the pattern looks stormy for someone does not necessarily mean that we will be included. That distinction never becomes truly evident until a week away at the earliest.
The colder and snowier scenario for late month is still favored as of now, and we MIGHT get a good storm or two out of it.
John just posted a map on Facebook that paints 1-3 inches of snow by tomorrow morning across the Rochester metro. A graze job is always better than no job.
ReplyDeleteCCCC thanks for all your insightful blogging, I enjoy reading your thoughts & weather information. CCCC has been pretty accurate with many of the weather events that have happened in the last few weeks. Remember folks, even with the best technology sometimes Mother Nature surprises us!
ReplyDeleteHaha you're too kind, thanks ^_^
DeleteThe Winter Weather Advisory now includes Wayne, Ontario, Yates and Steuben Counties. Winter Storm Warnings are as nearby as Oswego County. Clearly the western periphery of this storm is overperforming.
ReplyDeleteThe storm does not look very impressive. Very narrow strip of snow.
ReplyDeleteIt's narrow but intense. Expect the massive dry slot to fill back in as the storm intensifies further.
DeleteIt looks like some moderate banding is developing over the western Finger Lakes.
ReplyDeleteSo how much snow do you think we will get?
ReplyDeleteAnything from a trace (Orleans County) to 5 inches (Yates County). I can see Monroe County getting 1-3 inches.
DeleteI pray we are on the low side of snow accumulations. Us commercial plowing contractors are running on empty for salt and we can not buy anymore this season. I even tried a broker in Colorado. NYC and NJ purchased all salt reserves even what we have already paid for but have not taken delivery.
ReplyDeleteAbout 5.5 inches on the ground already in my yard
ReplyDeleteOh hey look, it's Fake Snowdog. How's it going down in Trollville?
DeleteCCCC you where also right on the money with this storm. It has tracked just like you said. I have also enjoyed sitting back reading you posts. You have been more accurate than ANY local forecaster the past couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteLol thanks, but all I really did with this storm was see that the models were having all sorts of trouble, which kept us in the mix for the graze job that we are now getting. Once the Euro began leading the way on its westward track it became more likely that this one would end up further west than many were saying it would, especially considering how these powerful storms like to track along the western portion of guidance envelopes. I'm going to take the humble route and say I made a "lucky educated guess" this time ;)
DeleteLight to a "tad" moderate snow in Penfield. We probably have close to an inch, visability isn't great and this snow is a fine "brown sugar" consistency. It's slippery out here folks, be careful!
ReplyDeleteLooks like we will miss yet another east coast storm this weekend. New England could get hit hard.
ReplyDeleteCCCC, question, Why does the radar ( around 7:30 pm ) look like we are going to get some pretty moderate snow for a while? Canandaigua has about 2 plus inch's on the ground and its snowing pretty good. We are trying to time our salting/plowing operations and getting confused with the timing. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteThose moderate bands are rotating inland from the storm as its center moves up along the coast, so they're just kind of hanging around. The snow should continue at a light to moderate clip for a good chunk of the night by the look of things, although it looks like the radar is starting to temporarily calm down a bit down that way.
DeleteI can answer for CCCC if he doesn't mind. That is banding - waves of more intense moisture that can affect certain areas more than others. That band of intense snow that you are reporting runs north-south along Rt. 21 from Pultneyville to Bristol. You will end up with an inch or two more than anyone else in the area.
ReplyDeleteWhoops he beat me to it.
DeleteI think Scott is low balling here. Radar trends continue to show this shield advancing west ever so slowly. Might push that 2-4" into Monroe county as well...
ReplyDelete-WG
I have had about 2" in Gananda and it is snowing moderately right now. I think they blundered a little on this one.
ReplyDeleteAbout 1.5" here in Penfield. Still snowing moderately.
ReplyDelete3 to 4" in Canandaigua
ReplyDeleteAnybody know where to find snowfall totals YTD for Wayne County (Williamson, Ontario , Wolcott)? We've really been pounded this year north of 104....
ReplyDeleteThanks
Heard 125" for Webster, that's the closest location. I would guess right around that for most northern Wayne Co. towns with a sharp increase east of Sodus Bay.
DeleteThat band certainly intensified pretty markedly over the past half hour. Snowfall rate and flake size have noticeably increased in northwest Henrietta. About an inch and a quarter so far.
ReplyDeleteCCCC,
DeleteI have to admit your forecasting was right on the money with this one. Are you a professional weatherperson?
And with the big one last week.
DeleteHe called that one a week or so out, and I thought had it pretty much on the money.
I'm not a professional weather person, just a rather dedicated enthusiast who loves to geek out about stuff :P
DeleteAny thoughts on what Monday night will bring?
ReplyDeleteDaylight then darkness?
DeleteNo comment to this stupid remark. Thank you cccc for the info.
DeleteCCCC anything you are seeing for the 19th timeframe? Look like something on NAM and GFS?
ReplyDeleteMonday could bring a plowable snowfall to the region, but right now it doesn't look like too big a deal. It could serve to beef the snowpack up for about a day ahead of the thaw assuming we don't have mixing issues. Speaking of the thaw...there is the potential for one or two strong Great Lakes systems at some point during that stretch, which could introduce strong winds along with robust surges of milder air. There is also a heavy rainfall threat associated with any storm potentials, which exacerbates the flood risk associated with rapid snowmelt and pre-saturated ground. If there is any saving grace right now it's that the warmup looks less pronounced today than it did yesterday. Slower melting is good for everyone, even those rooting for warmer temps. Still, this warmup does not appear to be without its caveats as of now.
ReplyDeleteConcerning the Thaw. I always get nervous when we have a deep snow-pack and then it thaws rapidly. Basement water...Do you think if we do get any rain, will the snow-pack help absorb it?
DeleteSeeing how the mild surges preceding strong Great Lakes systems tend to be dry, there might not be much of a snowpack remaining to absorb any rainfall. However, if there is also a lot of wind during the dry time any evaporation would be accelerated, which would mitigate the flood risk to an extent.
DeleteCCCC what about the long range data do you still think we get back into a cold/snowy pattern into the end of February/March?
ReplyDeleteYes, but uncertainty exists regarding exact placement of potential systems. Paul Pastelok thinks the interior Northeast will be the target zone for snow systems, with more mix events closer to the coast. Bear in mind that the interior Northeast isn't exactly a small region, so parts of it may miss out (not necessarily us).
DeleteI know predicting the weather, especially long range forecasts is very hard, but in your opinion, what do you think Spring (March, April) holds for us weather wise?
DeleteThat's kind of a bit much to tackle right now, but given how iced up Lake Erie is I would favor a slow start to Spring, with cooler temps hanging on longer than usual especially west and south. The eventual pattern could dictate otherwise, but we're too far from that time range to tell for sure. Seasonal forecasting is a crapshoot at best, too many kinks and variables.
DeleteWow really quiet on the blog. You can tell nothing going on in weather world. I do believe the latest models may give us a 3-6 inch snowfall for Tuesday? Am I reading them wrong?
ReplyDeleteCCCC any thoughts about Monday/Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteProbably a moderate event.
DeleteThe more I look, the less impressed I am with the upcoming thaw. The past few days have really chipped away at how pronounced it eventually gets. If this trend continues we may be dealing with more of a "cool-up" than a "warm-up."
ReplyDeleteWhen you say moderate is 3-6 like I said what you are thinking?
ReplyDeleteSomething like that, although I wouldn't put exact numbers on it yet.
DeleteWhat are thoughts on any lake effect tonight?
ReplyDeleteNo lake effect if any he favorite areas not Rochester. We are dead last in the Golden Snow Globe a ward how sad. Even lowly Albany is in front of us. I know everyone says we get snow not really only the select small few in lake effect areas get a lot.
ReplyDeleteRochester is still 13 inches ahead of Albany in the Golden Snowball, and only 2.4 inches behind Binghamton.
Deletehttp://goldensnowball.com/
Occasional fluff here for the past few hours. Areas north of the Thruway could see 1-2 inches tonight, with 3 or 4 possible along and north of 104.
ReplyDeletePretty good fluff snow in Penfield right now, we have probably gotten 2 inches of the stuff and still coming down at a good clip.
ReplyDeleteJN at 10 has us at 50 on Friday o the debate with CCCC is on ha ha. What is the latest on Mon/Tues possible snow? Where is Snowdog?
ReplyDeleteI am here. Not much to talk about. I hope CCC is right about the thaw not being so pronounced. All the mets have us in the 40's to near 50 by weeks end. I love this snowpack but we are only at 75 inches of snow. Buffalo and Syracuse are at 95 each. We are about 22 inches behind them. It is pathetic seeing how cold it has been. It is hard to fathom that we could end up below normal in snow this year. Meanwhile New England is getting another blizzard and another miss for us. Yike!!!!
ReplyDeleteMany of the weather folks have commented on the "Thruway Snow Derby" and stated that the measurable snow for Rochester has been incorrect and is higher than the numbers reflect. I know along the lake shore, we have over 100" of snow thus far. One area which has been mentioned specifically is Webster with 100+ inches of snow thus far. So to say that we are below normal in snow this year, is not a correct statement for everyone.
DeleteYou will be getting a little snow Mon/Tuesday Snowdog get your shovel ready. Then keep an eye on the week of the 24th for a potential BIG one.
ReplyDeleteSome of you can laugh or not, but I'm sticking with my late December prediction that we'll finish the season with 110"-120" based on historical averages and patterns. Sure 120" is a stretch, but I still like the odds for 110".
ReplyDeleteWe are currently at 77" for the season and nearly 9" above Feb average MTD. I see no reason why we should not finish Feb with at least 80"- 85" even with the brief warmup late next week-- heck we could even get a good storm and go well above that! Then looking at March, for all March's since 1941 we average around 15". But in years where we've exited Feb with 80"-85" we've averaged closer to 19." March is also a prime month for BIG storms. The downside is that years similar to this one also brought more than normal snow in April, and I think most of us find April snow tough to handle and basically a waste. And any snow in May I'll become homicidal :)
So I'm gonna say today, that hitting our 93" average is a guarantee. Exceeding 100" is highly probable. I'm sticking with 110" unless we tank the balance of February.
Andy
Where is CCCC? Update on Monday night into Tuesday based on latest model runs? Plus, I am saying keep an eye on the week of the24th for a BIG storm somewhere. Probably not here but somewhere on the east coast?
ReplyDeleteWe all know that March could be a bear or we could see nothing. Thanks Andy. I am going to say we finish below 100" this year. Where do U get that 93" inches is the average? I thought 100" is the average. This weak system for Monday night will give us maybe 1-3 inches. NBD
ReplyDeleteNo support for 50s in any of the ensemble means. It looks like mid to possibly upper 40s will be as good as it gets for most of us. Normally this would not be enough to create flooding issues, but the passage of a Pacific cold front on Thursday could throw a wrench into that equation. Later next weekend there is strong agreement on a return to well below normal temperatures after the passage of an arctic front. There is the potential for some sort of Eastern system early the following week, but details on it are hazy at best.
ReplyDeleteWe average around 100 inches of snow per season. If you want to split hairs then the exact 30 year mean is 99.5 inches. We are currently at 77.5 inches, 22 inches below the average for an entire season. There's a good chance we meet or beat 80 inches by the tail end of tomorrow night's system, which looks like a 2-4 inch event right now. That would put us around 20 inches away from the century mark, and given how much time remains for snow opportunities after the warmup I'd say that isn't a tall order.
Wouldn't surprise me if we were over 90" before February is over. Once this brief warm up begins to break down, the jet stream will be in a favorable position for us to see some decent snow. Remember, there is a deep snow pack from our region north and west. Couple that with the near record ice extent for the Great Lakes and it's going to take some time for winter to retreat north.
ReplyDeleteThere will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 4 weeks. Mark it down!
ReplyDeleteTowards the end of last week you were now to "next two weeks....". Four weeks would bring us to the beginning of April. So are you predicting a blizzard for our area in April?
DeleteI don’t use the 30 year average, I use the data from 1940/1941 to present available at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php. I just dumped it to an Excel sheet for analysis, and that average is 93” and median of 89”.
ReplyDeleteThe data does not support a high probability of finishing the winter at less than 100.” If you look at all winters where we finished Feb between 80”-85” for the season, there were 5 since 40/41. Only the winter of 80/81 finished below 100” at 94”, but we also only had 9” in Feb so this year does not look like that year at all. However the other 4 winters were above 100”-- we finished at 121” for 55/56, 106” for 89/90, 107” for 06/07, and 106” for 07/08. We average 15” in March, and seasons resembling this season typically have resulted in hefty March snowfalls, so I’m saying 100” can be taken to the bank, and I’ll stick with 110” as the likely season total.
But please Mother Nature, with all due respect PLEASE, no accumulating snow in April or May :)
Andy
Also like to draw your attention to the winter of 83/84 with a snowfall profile that looks much like this winter. We finished that winter at 118."
DeleteAndy
Scott says mini thaw next weekend. I think we will hit 50s Sat/Sunday.
ReplyDeleteI am with Andy on this one over 100 inches. Hamlin is already well OVER 100 inches this season. It snowed all day today and we got another 4 inches of powder on the north side. So much for a early spring, next weeks warm up is getting cooler and shorter everyday. The ECMWF 12Z run has brought winter back next weekend with a possible snow storm for our area. Time will tell but it still looks very promising for winter fans. This winter has been a municipal snow plowers dream. I got another 33 hrs OT since last Sunday, keep it coming I can catch up on sleep in the spring.
ReplyDeleteFROM KW:
ReplyDeleteThaw is on, but will be brief and meek, and won't even last a week. Mildest early Friday...perhaps near 50. But snow precedes and follows.
FROM KW:
ReplyDeleteThe late week thaw will be nice, but then it is back to ice. The month will end very cold with multiple snow chances.
Been snowing steady since 2 PM today - easily another 3-4" of fluffy stuff here north of 104. I found season to date snow data for Walworth (CoCoRahs) and a spotter has 103". A buddy of mine lives in Walworth and he has had less snow than me so I'd estimate 120-130" here in Ontario/Williamson this year. It's funny that the radar never seems to pick up the snow here (right now for instance it's snowing steady)...
ReplyDeleteGreat winter and Mother Nature doesn't seem to be letting up!
Snowing in Gananda right now as well.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure some of you who have been on here for a while will remember Charles Wachal. He used to post on here quite a bit. Recently he put up a post that said that his wife was very sick and was having surgery. I was following the Facebook page that someone made for them and sadly she passed away. It's very sad, she was young and they have a small baby girl. Just thought those of you who remember him would want to know. :(
ReplyDeleteOh my that is very sad. I do remember Charles and my heart goes out to him and his family.
DeleteAndy
Praying for Charles and his family.
ReplyDeleteWe will not get much from this little system tonight as most of the energy will slide south of us. We will be lucky to see and inch and then the melting will commence.
ReplyDeleteYep again we have a miss to our south and this system is looking more robust too. What else is new we have the dry slot.
ReplyDeleteLatest Canadian model gives us 3-6 inches?
ReplyDeleteWhy have the local weather folksnot picked up on this. All three station say from:
Delete- Channel 8 - 1-3"
- Channel 10 - 1-2"
- Channel 13 - 1-2"
Boy if they don't communicate to residents that we can expect 3 to 6 inches by morning - they will have blown it again for many of us who need to prepare for the morning commute. Now wonder if they are wrong about the warm up expected as the week goes on.
This is not a case of "miss to the south" as much as it is a case of downsloping causing the atmosphere to dry out. This will substantially cut back on totals across the region, and wasn't evident in previous model runs which tracked the system further south. The Canadian model is apparently not picking up on the downsloping effect, unlike all of the other models. Anyone expecting 3-6 inches is going to be sorely disappointed.
ReplyDeleteIn other words there is always something that makes us miss storms. Downsloping, south and east, west, etc.
ReplyDeleteYeah sure, we always miss storms. Except for this year, when we haven't.
Delete