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Thursday, February 6

NEW SNOWFALL RECORD SET YESTERDAY!



Written by John DiPasquale:

Snowfall ranges for the most part were in the 8 to 14" ballpark.  Pretty close to what we were thinking region wide. 

Check out the new record in Rochester set in Rochester yesterday that had been standing since 1907!  We easily took care of that weak record!  Officially the Rochester Airport ended up with 12.9", bringing the season total to 69.8". 

After some quiet & cold weather through Saturday, later Saturday night into Sunday at least a minor accumulating snowfall appears to be in the making.  It does not look like a big deal now, but I'm still not going to rule it out quite yet.  Either way, it will turn colder with some decent lake snow possible Sunday night through the first half of next week.  Then mid to late next week will have to be watched, as models are hinting at potentially something, but that is a week away, so don't get too excited about it yet.  We'll see...Active month ahead?  I think so.  Stay tuned. 

Have a great afternoon & night bloggers!


102 comments:

  1. Echo! Echo! Echo!

    ... So how much snow to people think we'll get for the season? Click my name for a poll

    http://poll.pollcode.com/5697146

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  2. Maybe everyone is on their snow mobiles?

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  3. Unfortunately the quiet won't last long. They will all be back crying about no storm this weekend.

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  4. It would have been nice to get a 1 2 punch but it was not in the cards. It looks like some light snow Sunday with a little lake effect after that. It should be quiet for a week at least. I am happy with yesterdays snow. It was a nice storm. I hope we don't have to wait another month for another storm.

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  5. Some are talking about a storm next week. I do not see it. It should remain well to our East. We will be cold though.

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    Replies
    1. Ahem...

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020612&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

      And there's plenty of ensemble spread to boot. There's a case to be made for next Thursday especially with a high degree of phasing, so don't be so quick to dismiss it.

      Delete
    2. Correction: IF there's a high degree of phasing.

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    3. That is what was supposed to happen this weekend and it did not. The NWS, Weather channel and our Mets we are talking about it like it was a sure thing that a BIG storm would form. It is not going to happen.

      Delete
    4. Thanks for the map attachment. It does not look strong but I hope it happens and moves more inland. How come the models are not latching on to this?

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    5. The point is that the threat is there, and since the various guidance packages are still all over the place with it there remains a chance of it impacting our region. Don't act like this one is guaranteed to go down the drain just because the weekend one did. And FWIW, several of the NWS offices further south appear to be leaning towards a more westerly track at the moment. Plenty of uncertainty still.

      Delete
    6. Models aren't latching because it's still a week away and there's about 400 little disturbances floating around causing model chaos. Just sit back and enjoy the mayhem until the weekend event passes.

      Delete
    7. What weekend event????

      Delete
    8. The light snowfall. Still qualifies as an "event."

      Delete
  6. I know everyone said that Feb would be active and this storm made it start out that way. My concept of active is every 3-4 days we get something. It does not have to be a BIG storm but we get some activity and not have to wait a month like we did in January.

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  7. So disappointed that we won't be getting the 30+ inches that many had anticipated this weekend. To have had 43+ inches of snow in 3-4 day time frame would have been exciting.

    Some are saying towards end of next week to expect another big or bigger storm. Maybe the person who keeps posting "Blizzard to impact Flower City in next ____ weeks" will be correct.

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    Replies
    1. That 30+ inches was present on one model and restricted to the coast. We would've been in the 10-20 inch range. Still a bit disappointing though.

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  8. Blizzard within the next 3 weeks in the Flower City. Mark it down!

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    Replies
    1. this never gets old... :)
      Chris

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  9. Really does not appear like many storms appearing on the models the next few weeks from what I see.

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    Replies
    1. Then what do you call this:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020700&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

      Delete
  10. How much snow for Sunday? I need to get to church, and the plows don't come out on Sunday morning because "everybody" is home.

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  11. A half an inch should do it.

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  12. Wow! Models are bad. We just may be heading for an early spring and I am serious. Not trying to be a troll just seeing nothing now. Went from monster storm potential to zippo. Snowdog alert who is checking on him?

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    Replies
    1. There are no signs whatsoever of an "early spring." Our temperatures may moderate to near average after mid month, maybe slightly above for a time, but spring is on hold for the foreseeable future.

      I wouldn't rely on operational model outputs to get a reliable feel for anything beyond 3 days at this point. There is too much chaos ongoing to be able to trust them right now. Ensemble means are the way to go.

      Delete
  13. A downstream blocking regime may develop by the tail end of February thanks to a sudden stratospheric warming event, and it may be favorable for more cold and storms in the East. If that happens, it would put the kibosh on any "early spring" talk.

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    1. CCCC, can you say if you are an Earth Science teacher, college prof. or a met. from another station (or maybe this station) coming on here to say what you can't say as your real self? How do you know so much and have so much time to devote to studying weather every day? I'm not complaining, just wondering!

      Delete
    2. It helps that I'm early in the semester at college right now so I have a fair amount of free time. I don't really study weather every day, much of what I post here that isn't model info is just stuff I've picked up from years of lurking on weather forums, which typically have a solid mix of knowledgeable amateurs and actual professionals who do a nice job explaining things. I have several different resources for model data bookmarked, so to evaluate what the models portray at a basic level only takes about 15-20 minutes. Weather is definitely a huge passion of mine, but computer engineering is my main deal as well as my college major. So to answer your question, I am not an Earth science teacher, professor, meteorologist, botanist, mole person, RoboCop or basement-dwelling internet weirdo. Just a regular weirdo with a passion for computers, weather and consumption of fun substances.

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    3. Well, good luck to you!

      Delete
  14. The people that post early spring or no storms in the next few weeks need to back it up with model verification. You cannot just say that stuff and not back it up. I agree with CCC. I see no signs of early spring at all.

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  15. Sorry I see no signs of storms in the future and I am being serious. Remember just 3 days ago the models were showing a HUGE snowstorm this weekend and now nothing. They have been doing that a lot this winter. Showing monster storms 7-10days out and nothing materializing. Just think we got 2 ten inch plus storms this and I think that will be it for the winter. We have had major cold and I think that is done. Just an opinion based on latest ensembles and model runs.

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    1. The Euro has literally 3 different storm potentials on it over the next 10 days. The latter two are pretty much only on the Euro, but the first one is on all of the models with several different outcomes still possible. Here see if you can pick them out (hint: look down in the Gulf of Mexico for the last one):

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

      Will these play out exactly as depicted? Most likely not, especially with so much to sift through still. All I'm saying is that you must be looking through some wonky models if you can't see any signs of storminess. I also find it extremely hard to believe that winter can be over by mid February, especially since the earliest de facto finish to a winter season on record was February 28th. We're also still waiting on the potential after effects of our sudden stratospheric warming event. So cut it out with the early spring claptrap for now, please.

      Delete
    2. Interesting as next Tuesday and Wednesday showing over night lows of 7 and 8 degrees, and if you add the wind in with that -- like this morning; I would say that the major cold has not gone away. Besides, don't you want the opportunity to be sent home early from work or even having your business close due to the storm -- it is better than taking a vacation day.

      Delete
  16. I've been hearing that after a temporary warmup during the third week of the month we should head into a more typical late winter pattern through early March. I can absolutely see that given the sudden stratospheric warming and projected MJO phases (the GFS ensembles have it trending towards colder phases in about 2 weeks).

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  17. Blizzard within the next 3 weeks in the Flower City. Mark it down!

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  18. Sorry the EURO model has not been very good this winter. So those things you posted Cheryl mean very little at this point.

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    Replies
    1. The Anon I responded to said that he/she sees no sign of storms in the future in any model. I posted 3 model frames that have storms in them. The point being made was that at least one model does indeed show storminess, regardless of whether or not it verifies.

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  19. I agree with CCC. I have only had limited chances to look at models, but see no signs of spring. Lots of drifting snow to plow in Hamlin, keep it coming the overtime is piling up this year.

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  20. As far as that event goes next week, look for the northern stream to merge with the southern and blow something up around Valentine's Day. I would assume models will begin to show this trend by Sunday/Monday.
    -WG

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  21. Models still quiet as a church mouse. Think our winter is starting to wind down. That is too bad but 2 pretty good storms not bad.

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    Replies
    1. Since when does winter begin to wind down on February frigging 8th? I personally cannot recall a winter season that called it quits so early, and I've been doing this for awhile. Maybe nothing of interest happens in the next 15 days, that doesn't mean we can shut the door on the entire winter. I'll restate what I said earlier: the earliest de facto end to a winter season ON RECORD was February 28th, 2010. I say "de facto" because I'm using the latest accumulating snowfall in a given season to mark the end of winter, there's really no "official" delimiter for the end of winter aside from calendar dates. Of course there's always a remote chance that winter ends two to three weeks earlier than it ever has in history ever, but I'm definitely not putting my chips down for such a projection.

      By the way, the latest Euro weekly indicates that cold and storminess will be present during early March. This lines up with the projected MJO phase as well as the pending outcome of our sudden stratospheric warming event. And that Valentine's Day threat is still lurking on ALL of the models. I can easily see winter taking a break for a temporary stretch after that time frame passes, but it's extremely difficult to imagine that being the grand exit for the whole season. No guarantees, but my bets hedge very strongly against what would be an historically early end to winter.

      Delete
    2. The below average temperature anomalies over central Asia also support a colder start to March, as they should eventually propagate towards North America.

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    3. Disagree after next weekend around the 16th I see a pattern change to much more seasonable temperatures. It will start to get warmer and head towards spring.

      Delete
  22. CCC do not play into the person that keeps posting the end to winter. He/she is just trying to upset people. He never has any back-up or proof. I see something brewing for next Thursday Friday. Several models show it. We will see.

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  23. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 3 weeks. Mark it down!

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  24. Snowdog what do see brewing next Thursday/Friday a pot of Folgers coffee? See nothing on models including latest GFS 12z will be rain?

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  25. Latest EURO run for next week is to be quite honest weak. It has been a real good winter though I am happy to see a pattern change towards more seasonable temperatures and less snow.

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  26. Models are still worlds apart on next week's storm, but it's still there. It's possible that even areas well to the NW of the low track could see issues with precipitation type, as Pacific air starts to get involved and an obnoxious northern stream system rolls through the Great Lakes, pulling milder air northwards. The overall theme remains however...the potential is there, but plenty of uncertainty exists.

    It does appear that a warmup is on tap after next week, which should last through a large part of the week. Afterwards we appear to be on tap for a change to a negative AO to go along with a neutral/weakly positive NAO and a negative PNA. This would result in an active flow pattern across North America, with the negative AO likely keeping us on the cold side of systems. Several entities are on board for a cold start to March including Weatherbell, the Accuweather long range experts, Brett Anderson and a very knowledgeable AccuWx moderator by the name of jdrenken. The last person is worth noting because he's been pretty much spot on with long range forecasts all season long. One mantra he uses goes something like this: if there is a warmup during winter, watch out for what happens behind it.

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  27. So as I said earlier and was beaten up for it there will be nothing really happening for the next 10-14 days. Then it is as usual speculation for a pattern change that never happens after that. Accuweather is as about as useful as a tooth pick to help start a campfire. Plan on an early spring as I have predicted and call me jdrenken the second.

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    1. "Accuweather is as about as useful as a tooth pick to help start a campfire."

      And somehow you've found a way to be even less useful than that.

      Sorry, couldn't pass up a wide open opportunity like that ;)

      Delete
  28. I know I've said before that I respect people's opinions as long as they aren't ignorant or misguided. But I can't for the life of me understand how people actually look forward to the start of spring. Nothing but mud, clouds, backdoor cold fronts and temperatures just chilly enough to make it uncomfortable to be outside. Now the middle of spring is a different story because the outdoor environment turns quite pleasant. But early spring in my mind is basically like late winter, except slightly less cold with no snow and maybe marginally less cloudiness. Jot this down if at all interested: the period starting mid March and lasting through mid April is ol' Carol's least favorite time of the year by far.

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    1. Agreed. Early spring is terrible-- Too warm for snow, too cold and wet for anything else outdoors. Too much gray and clouds. Fortunately I'll be spending a good portion of the month of April where it's warm. Until then, I'm enjoying the heck out of this cold and snow!

      Andy

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  29. Thanks for that great homily filled with verifiable data. The explanation of what early spring is and your distaste for it was extremely enlightening and enjoyable. And btw I could care less that Carol's least favorite time of the year is mid March through mid April. Your weird name on this blog is even more annoying than the 2 useless post you just posted. So get ready for that early spring that we all now know you so enjoy.

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    1. http://media.masslive.com/patriots/photo/11707427-mmmain.jpg

      Glad I could be of service ;D

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    2. Owned! Hope ya got an airbag!

      Delete
  30. Not sure why you both are saying a warm up next week??? The NWS talks about us getting near normal and that's about it. They also state there are 2 storm chances by the end of next week and that we stay cold enough for mainly snow. They are also talking about lake effect snow advisories for us Monday night into Tuesday.

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    Replies
    1. It'll be a warmup relative to what we've been getting. I don't think it's going to be a warm pattern at all, more like ups and downs with marginally more ups. This is being influenced by the MJO moving towards warmer phases over the next week or so. The NWS mentioned that they may need to bring a mix or some rain into the discussion if the models trend warmer on the late week storm. I did notice that there is another storm threat behind that one, but I'm concerned that it may track through the Lakes and bring more in the way of rain or mix. The lake snow advisories, I would think, would be more for areas east of Rochester with lighter amounts elsewhere.

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  31. It is over Snowdog! We will be in the pattern where storms track west of us. We all know that is rain just like last year. It was nice while it lasted. As you see from his recent posts CCCC is starting to come to this realization. And the warm up will be the week of the 17th not next week.

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  32. Models still showing zippo for the next 2 weeks. A really boring pattern and one I predicted. CCCC sorry you were great with the last storm but wrong on upcoming pattern change and jets merging.

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  33. Models now appear to be latching on to something for next week! Things could get feisty in a hurry. Still far out but something is brewing. Anddd I just soiled my pants...better change 'em!

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  34. Dat Euro output <3. Models still can't seem to get a solid handle on the late week system, but man alive this latest Euro run looks gorgeous.

    No change to the long range pattern outlook...temporary warmup in about a week followed by a return to wintry conditions by the last week of February. Not one single time have I "come around" to anything. Just biding my time and looking for any evidence I can find regarding what lurks down the road. I entertained the idea of a possible warmup to near or slightly above normal temps at some point during late February, and the evidence for such a thing has been mounting especially with the projected MJO phase. Said MJO phase projection also supports a return to wintry weather during the tail end of the month, as does the pending manifestation of the sudden stratospheric warming event that I've mentioned ad nauseum. There are zero guarantees at this stage, but at the current juncture this is what the existing evidence suggests. There is always the remote chance that our troll friend is correct and spring begins in one week, earlier than it ever has, but I find it extremely difficult to make a case for such a thing.

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  35. I have been on this blog for a few years and everyone knows I have never posted anything like what was posted in the last sentence from the imposter Snowdog. I, for one, am looking forward to higher temps. This brutal cold is too much. Normal to just above normal is ok with me. I guess I am not reading the models correctly but I just do not see this BIG warm-up you are talking about CCC. I see an up and down pattern. Warm then cold, warm then cold with storms passing to our west. Same pattern we had early in the winter. As for the early spring. I doubt it.

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    Replies
    1. Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene February 9, 2014 at 3:56 AM

      "I entertained the idea of a possible warmup to near or slightly above normal temps at some point during late February..."

      That's not a "BIG warm-up."

      Delete
  36. Wow, CCC I see what you mean about the EURO. Do think it is a little to far East to give is BIG snows though if it pans out? Where do you go to see the Euro, GFS precip forecast like you posted with the last storm? Thanks

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  37. The problem is that the EURO has done this all winter long. It shows a BIG storm early and then as we get closer it goes away. I do not see any other models showing this scenario so I am taking the EURO with a grain of salt.

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  38. If the EURO verifies, which I doubt will, we would be in for a pretty big snowstorm. It is the outlier and most weather offices discount it.

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  39. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 3 weeks. Mark it down!

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  40. Snowdog you are right the EURO has been poor this winter. Think this will not verify but maybe the BIG one is a week late ha ha. It was suppose to be tonight and tomorrow.

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  41. 12z GFS not good believe it is for the fish not good.

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  42. The GFS is the only model consistently deepening the great lakes low to such a degree. That serves as a kicker and shunts the coastal storm out to sea. While the Euro is the furthest west, the GFS is the furthest east. The general trend with the models has been to bring the storm further west, and the WPC is currently favoring a 00z Euro/12z Euro compromise. So I am leaning towards the Euro at this moment, though perhaps not to the degree of the 00z run.

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  43. Ditto CCC. I think the Euro is still off on the phasing of the northern LP with the gulf moisture. I really think we have a good chance at another decent snowfall as models will definitely begin trending west.
    -WG

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  44. That is pretty bold to go with the EURO. It has done so poorly this year. I hope the EURO pans out. I just do not trust it.

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  45. WG and CCCC not sure what you are seeing or thinking. Did you see the latest EURO? This will not even be close to a player in western NY. Way south and east and hte CMC says the same. Again this is done and warm temps coming leading us towards spring.

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    Replies
    1. Will you stop with this its over crap. What data do you have to prove that.

      Delete
    2. The latest GFS and EURO runs. GFS is OTS and EURO way SE so no storm this week. Plus both show an extended warm-up after next weekend.

      Delete
    3. That is today. The trend this winter is to move storms west as the event comes closer. It is 5 days out. It will change. The models change everyday I have heard no mets discuss any extended warm-up in our future, just back to normal which is ok with me. This brutal cold sucks.

      Delete
    4. This will not change. There is a piece of energy over the great lakes that is keeping this storm east. In fact if that comes more easterly it will push this storm more east. It is over as is the winter and that is ok it has been a tough one.

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  46. Snowdog the EURO has a storm for the coast not us!

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  47. The 12Z GEM has a blizzard for the east coast Thursday afternoon. This will be fun period to watch as all the models are now showing a storm near the coast, and possibly a VERY strong LP.

    In the meantime it is currently snowing lightly, with LES advisories for shoreline in Monroe, and Wayne counties tonight and tomorrow, this winter has been a good one up to this point.

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    Replies
    1. Unfortunately for us it will probably be a miss and we will be spectators.

      Delete
  48. The "extended warmup" on the models consists largely of high temps in the mid to upper 30s, which is slightly above average for mid/late February. One thing I worry about with the late week system is that the pesky Great Lakes system could induce slight ridging over the interior Northeast, which would dry out the NW precip shield of the coastal and confine the heavy snow to coastal areas even with a track near the coast. This is in addition to it possibly booting the coastal out to sea. We want that Great Lakes system to be as weak and as far west as we can get it, otherwise it could single handedly screw our chances. That said, I still favor the foreign models over the GFS, big time. The GFS appears to be having convective feedback issues which is causing secondary surface low development too far east, and subsequently an out to sea track. Its depiction of the Great Lakes low actually isn't much stronger than the other models, but it's significantly more progressive with it. This is a well documented GFS bias which manifested with the Thanksgiving storm earlier in the season, and resulted in the GFS being the last model to lock on to a coastal track with the storm. Another red flag: the GFS ensemble mean is NW of the operational. So the case against the out to sea track of the GFS is very strong at the moment, but there is always a remote chance that could change.

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  49. CCCC please see Anon post 2:31 said the same thing only earlier and more straight forward lol. However great minds do think alike. However I do believe we are out of this storm and it will be too far east.

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    Replies
    1. "However great minds do think alike."

      They do indeed:
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

      "AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED
      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
      PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
      CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE"

      "THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICH CAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION."

      Delete
    2. What does this mean?

      Delete
  50. So CCCC you agree with angry Anon that this storm is done? A tad confused with your post? I still think it is early to be having definite solutions. Come on Snowdog we missed it this weekend but we have to have faith in this one. Are you with me?

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    Replies
    1. I absolutely do NOT agree that this storm is done. I just have concerns that various kinks (namely the Great Lakes low) could ruin our chances, that's all. I also have several reasons to believe that the GFS is off its rocker, and it would seem that the WPC (formerly HPC) agrees with me. We still have a day or two remaining before we can either gas up the snowblowers or punt and move on to the next one.

      Delete
  51. The storm is 5 days out and many on here are so sure it will be a miss. The trend this whole winter is to bring these storms more West as time progresses. Many of the weather offices are talking about an inland track possibility. Everything is on the table 5 days out. It may be a miss, it may not. Time will tell. I believe it will end up trending westward.

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  52. No offense snow lovers but I'm really hoping for a miss. My sister is dealing with ice dams on her roof and some moisture coming in. Gotta get this snow melted so we can hopefully fix the problem. She is very stressed.

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  53. Snowdog this I think would be a Thursday/Friday event so really 4 days away. I think by tomorrow nights runs we will know what is happening. We believe Snowdog and it is not over until CCCC punts.

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  54. I was just out driving around and there are cars off the roads and in ditches everywhere. It was very slippery, and it seems the salt just isn't helping much. Isn't this the time for a Winter Weather Advisory? After all it's a warning to people to be extra careful, and perhaps not go out unless they have to. I know there is a Lake Snow Advisory for later on but that starts at 9pm. I just think it would be logical to issue an advisory now, and even earlier this afternoon.

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    Replies
    1. Not enough snow accumulation for a Winter Weather Advisory. There has to be at least 3 inches in a 12 hour period, which we aren't going to get outside of lake effect areas.

      Delete
  55. More and more signs showing a BIG storm which will be to far our east and keep us on the outside looking in?

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  56. New EURO is now in line with the GFS in taking the storm too far east. This is typical of the EURO showing a BIG storm for us only to pull back either on the intensity of track. I agree now that this will be a miss for us. and NYC East could see a nice snowstorm again.

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    Replies
    1. Does this look "in line" to you:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020918&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=090
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020912&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=096

      That looks like one super thick line to me...

      Delete
    2. The operational GFS is still way east of everything, including its own ensembles. Ignore it entirely until it lays off the liquor long enough to get a handle on things.

      Delete
  57. What are you saying CCC? It still looks to far east to affect us.

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    Replies
    1. I'm saying that the Euro is not "in line" with the GFS at all. The GFS is a good 250 miles east of the Euro, and about the same distance east of everything else.

      Delete
  58. CCCC true and an honest question? GFS is an outlier but all the other models are still far east of us true? How can you thin they are all wrong and this will come back NW and put us in a great snow zone?

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    Replies
    1. I can only speak to the GFS very likely being wrong. The other models seem much more reasonable at the moment. The closest I ever got to saying the models would trend NW is saying that I'm leaning towards the Euro solution, but not quite to the extent of the 00z run from last night. Never did I explicitly state that we would trend to a good snowstorm, in fact I've already expressed doubts in that regard pending what occurs with the Great Lakes system, which again could single handedly spoil the whole thing if it's too strong and/or too fast. As it stands we need the Great Lakes low to trend slower and weaker from what the models are saying.

      Delete

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