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Monday, February 3

ONE, MAYBE TWO STORMS TO IMPACT AREA NEXT 7 DAYS...








Written by John DiPasquale:


Quiet & chilly weather will be with us through the first part of the week thanks to high pressure.  Later Tuesday into Tuesday night clouds will increase in advance of a developing storm coming up from the south that is slated to drop several inches upon the region mainly after midnight Tuesday night & Wednesday.  The NAM is more aggressive with the snow having a good 8 to 14" snowfall on tap for us, while the GFS is outputting closer to 3 to 7" or 8", so going down the middle with 6 to 10" just like Scott was thinking last night believe is a good call for this one.  Scott will likely come out with the latest on snowfall amounts expected tonight, & I'll have the latest first thing tomorrow.

Later Wednesday through at least the start of Thursday we will pick up some limited lake snow, colder air & wind on the backside of the storm.  Friday & Saturday look quiet & chilly, but later Sunday into the start of next week could become quite interesting, as a BIG storm looks like will try to come together down south.  The BIG question regarding the Sunday/Monday storm, as always is the case, what's the ultimate track going to be?  Stay tuned for updates, especially late this week.

Have a great start to your week everyone!  


44 comments:

  1. Ok. So who wants to vote. How much do you think we will get. (Tuesday/Wednesday) I set up a poll. Click on my name to take you to the poll.

    http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652

    http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652_result

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  2. Thanks John. Nice update. Hopefully it pans out and we get some nice snow pack.

    Andy

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  3. The BIG storm Sunday/Monday. I hope we are not spectators to this one. Right now it just seems to far East, but the trend this winter seems to move systems more nw as time progresses. I know we all want the BIG one since it has not happend here in a long time. The models seemed to have trended further south for this one. My thinking is we will be on the low end of 6-10 in Rochester. If we get some lake enhancement that may help a little.

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  4. Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for several counties including Monroe. A bit out of left field especially given the small southward ticks in recent model runs. They're still going with a widespread 6-10 inches though.

    Not particularly feeling the weekend storm right now, seems like that Canadian high wants to keep it south. Of course that is highly subject to change, but we're on 2nd and 13 with that one in my mind.

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    1. How much snow do you think we will get overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Just trying to prepare for the morning and how early to get up to shovel. I am reading anywhere from 2-4" or 2-3" -- what do you think?

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    2. Wayyy more than 2-3. I think 6-10 is perfectly reasonable, with small shifts in track and lake influence possibly raising or lowering totals from that range.

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    3. So you expect 6-10 inches overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning?

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  5. I do have to say that Scott last night on his forecast was pretty bullish about a the BIG storm potential Sunday/Monday next week. He said the one Tuesday/Weds this week could be an appetizer for that one. He is never that aggressive especially a week out. I found that intriguing.

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  6. I really hope Scott is onto something, but as of right now only the GFS is showing anything too favorable. Yeah it's not wise to live and die by the models, but I would like to see model support before getting comfortable. If Scott really is that bullish then my guess is that he sees reason to expect a weaker Canadian high.

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  7. CCC thought the latest EURO looked good too for next weekend for us?

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    Replies
    1. It's basically a fringe job with only light snow.

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  8. 18z GFS just out looks good for us a solid 8-10 inches.

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  9. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 5 weeks. Mark it down!

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    Replies
    1. Last week you said 7-weeks.

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  10. The great KW says next weeks storm will be huge but more than likely a New England storm and we miss out.

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    Replies
    1. Let's hope it does miss. With a foot already down by then another 18-24" would be a paralyzing disaster. The cold is tolerable, snow in any quantity is not.

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    2. Any quantity? You must be literally allergic to snow if you think that. I respect most opinions on most things but that seems like hyperbole to the max. The region would have a rough time dealing with 18-24 inches of snow from one storm, but I doubt it would be paralyzing unless it came with strong wind as well. And while a foot is certainly possible from the Wednesday storm I'm not expecting it.

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    3. This is typical. We do not get BIG storms in Western, NY very often. We will most likely be spectators again.

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    4. I saw KW's tweet, he said that as of now the TREND is towards a New England event but also that it's still early in the game. Translation: hope is not lost.

      18z GFS still looks very nice, too bad it's the 18z GFS...

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  11. CCC did not the latest EURO look good for us too on Sunday/Monday storm?

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    Replies
    1. Not really. Just a graze job with light snow on that run, but it's still early.

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  12. KW and the NWS both state SUnday/Monday will be a New England player and we will be on the fringe. We will most likely be spectators to a BIG storm where someone gets 1-2 ft. I am not trying to be negative but we are all used to this. These BIG storms just do not hit us here that often. The trends are taking this further East.

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    1. -_-

      Here is the exact tweet, word for word:

      "Wednesday call still looks good. As for the Sun/Mon event, could be big...but trends now suggest more of a New England player. Still early."

      Read that again:

      "Still early."

      He then went on to say this:

      "Probably won't have a better handle on track of Sunday/Monday event until later this week. This one really needs to be watched."

      Seems like you're gearing up to punt on 2nd down. Not a wise decision, grasshopper. I remember a certain storm right before Thanksgiving, where basically every model agreed on a track out to sea 6 days beforehand, only to trend back towards a track along the coast in the following days. This one could, COULD, turn out to be similar. We still have the Wednesday storm to get through and sampling of relevant features to get a better picture. Keep this in mind too: we were on the fringe of the infamous V-Day Storm. Not saying this one will be similar, just that fringe jobs aren't always a terrible thing.

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  13. I will be honest. I am a little leary on this storm coming up. The models keep taking it further South and East and make us right on the fring as well. That is why the NWS is not putting WSW up for counties West of us. Any further south shift and we will see a 2-3 inch snowfall.

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    Replies
    1. The 18z GFS ticked back to the NW a little. Relax. These storms frequently end up 20-30 miles north of the forecast anyway, definitely a possibility here as well.

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  14. Don't underestimate lake enhancement here people. Remember last time we were only supposed to get 4-8"...? It turned out to be 10-20"! Solid 6-8" a good bet.

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  15. I get the feeling I'm going to have to go on weenie suicide patrol pretty soon ._.

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    Replies
    1. ahahhahhahaha! That was funny!

      I really enjoy reading your posts along with weatherguys and HP's.

      Andy

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  16. I would say 6 inches give or take for Wednesday. I like where we sit for next weekend. This far out it is better to be on the fringes than in the sweet spot. I am getting excited about this weeks snow, topped off with our "BIG ONE" this weekend?? WE WILL SEE.

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  17. LOL. People start to freak out a day before a storm on here like a bride to be the day before her wedding. Like I said before I will be happy with any snow at this point to freshen things up. Better than none at all.

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  18. I agree with Farmington and Andy!

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  19. I think mets are down playing Wednesday storm. 6 inches at least but in an 8 hour time frame. The timing and short intensity is going to cause travel nightmares all day Wednesday if timing is correct. is going

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    1. 6" in any time frame is nothing for us. Everybody freaks out, and that's why there are problems..

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    2. What if it was 6" in 20 minutes >____>

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    3. A quick 6 inches at morning rush would be disruptive even here. It gets tough for the plows to clear when the commuters are in the way. Nothing like an inch of snow in Atlanta. 6 inches between 4 and 8 am would be way more challenging than 12 inches from 8 pm to 4 am.

      I'm curious how Hamlin Plower feels. How much snow is disruptive and how much foes timing matter?

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  20. Timing is everything when it comes to snowfall and traffic problems. If you don't think so drive around early morning before the plows get the snow off the road. Last Monday morning we got about 3-4 inches between 4am and 8am. When combined with the wind it made for the worst conditions of the season. On my plow route there were 4 cars and a school bus in the ditch, visibility was zero drivers could NOT see the road to stay on it. Big accumulations are NOT the only factors.

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  21. Kevin Williams said we're in line for a solid 8-12" by wed evening. Said snowfall rates will be 1-2" per hour at times early wed morning. Looking like a pretty good snow event for us!

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    Replies
    1. I believe that to be true. The southern tier looks to be in the sweet spot now with some mets calling for 10-16 inches. 8-12 is a strong possibility for our area.

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  22. Thinking about next week, I don't believe we will be spectators on this one...just a hunch. Last coastal storm, Scott guaranteed it would be an "Out-to-Sea'ster" and boy was he dead wrong! The trend has been more inland this winter and I feel that will be the case next week when all is said and done!

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  23. Not sure where you got that about KW saying a solid 8-12? He had 6-10 on his forecast tonight. I go with Scott over all and he has been bullish on next Sunday's storm with us getting snow more than any other local guy. That is unusual for Scott to do that 6 days out he must have a gut feeling on this one.

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    Replies
    1. But 6 days out leaves him plenty of time to flip-flop, as he typically does. I love Scott and all, but I just think he's slipping a bit. He hasn't really been on the money this season..

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  24. According to Glenn Johnson, this system is strengthening big time. He said we have a real shot at 10-18 inches! PS- where is Scott's snowfall map that was coming out today??? He said no big deal the other day, so I expect his map to be in the range of 2-4" Hopefully we get way more!

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  25. Anon now you are just making things up. Just saw Johnson on TV and he says 6-10 just like Scott and the rest of them. He said nothing about this strengthening big time. You are after Scott and he has been good this winter as usual.

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  26. Channel 13 is in the 6-10 range on their daily forecast thing.

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