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Monday, March 10

11PM MONDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE




Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Here's the latest forecast on the upcoming snow storm for Western New York.  New data continues to track low pressure in a good position for all snow for most of our viewing area.  Snow will break out across the region Wednesday morning.  Snow will fall heavy at times from late morning through the early evening.  During the time, snow fall rates of over 1" each hour are possible.  Strong NE winds between 20-30 mph will begin to reduce visibility as blowing and drifting of snow picks up.  The low is expected to move across Eastern PA in the early evening hours.

Arctic air will pour Southward Wednesday night and Thursday.  Leftover moisture and cold air advection will result in a few more inches of lake enhanced snow near and North of the thruway into the early hours on Thursday.  It is for this reason that my forecast map has that area in the over 10" accumulation.  Some areas North may end up with 15" if enhancement does what it does historically with lows tracking similarly.  I do still believe that a mix will occur near the PA border for the first half of the storm thus lower snow amounts there.

Thanks for your patience, just wanted to see the latest data to be prudent.  Enjoy the upcoming storm and we will have an update with John in the morning.

Good night!

110 comments:

  1. NAM had a sub 980mb LP SE of Erie Pa. kind of nuts and has us getting close to 20 inches and shows lake influence.

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  2. Thanks for the update Scott now I can try to go to bed even more excited than I was before. :)

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  3. DCs temperature drops from 61 to 22 in a six hour period Wednesday. Crazy!

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  4. Make your predictions

    http://poll.pollcode.com/35233285

    Or click my name.

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  5. Once again, this is why I check this blog regularly. I sometimes amaze my family and friends with how close I can predict these storms with the info from you guys. Thanks guys for making me look so smart.

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  6. Gotta get some sleep, but GFS looks really good. Looking forward to watching John in the morning for updates as I think numbers are going to be adjusted.

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  7. Yes Oz GFS was good too puts us in the 16-18 inch range I believe. Oz EURO in 2 hours but that is to late check things tomorrow. Hope this is a good run too.

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  8. All the models are pumping out a ton of moisture it seems. Over 12" of snow seems very likely in my opinion. This could be the biggest storm of the season.

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  9. Yikes RC on news 10 just said we could see 19 inches in the Rochester metro by Thursday at noon?

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    Replies
    1. I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but amounts in excess of a foot and a half are definitely possible due to lake enhancement. The NWS indicated this in their discussion.

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  10. Can someone with knowledge read the most recent 6z NAM? Am I reading that right? It went south and are we in the 27-30 inch snowfall range?

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  11. I don't know guys but this could be the BIG one we have been waiting for.

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  12. All the talk is that the storm is much deeper and slower. This could be the 1-2 foot storm we have been waiting for. They also say the winds will be stronger with blizzard conditions. Possible Blizzard warning????

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  13. I refuse to believe that I could actually be seeing these numbers right now. This has to be a dream and I will awaken soon...right? The 06z NAM does indeed paint 30-36 inches across much of WNY. Very likely another typical NAM bias causing over-inflated totals, but even half of that would still be a very substantial snowstorm. The 06z GFS beefed up totals as well, with a general 16-22 inches regionwide. Pretty sure every available piece of reliable guidance now gives us a foot or more, and with the expected wind gusts I wouldn't be shocked to see blizzard warnings for the south shore counties by tomorrow morning. The newest NWS discussion also mentions thundersnow as a distinct possibility from what they've labeled as "an incredibly dynamic system." And if the winds pick up enough while the snow is still dense and wet we could be dealing with some power outages as well.

    Needless to say, this is rather suddenly becoming a high impact event.

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  14. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 36 hours. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Behold, the almighty prophet of the blogosphere awakens...

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    2. YEAH, YOU NEVER KNOW!!! This sure looks like blizzard criteria to me. Lets see what the 12z runs throw at us.

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    3. I really love this guy - it cracks me up every time

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  15. Yeah, all the support is there with less than 24 hours til the event, with quite impressive numbers on virtually all of the guidance. I'm no longer in school, but I really hope they cancel all classes tomorrow as this looks to bury us fairly quickly, most likely stranding school buses and students trying to return home. This is where Scott,KW, and GJ need to start taking this seriously and begin warning people of the true magnitude of this storm...

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  16. Well RC on 10 said the storm is stronger and now slowing down on the models thus he said some areas including the city could get 19 inches.

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  17. And because I can hear the cries of "BUST" coming from many hours away, there is the likelihood of the main storm being preceeded by several hours of light rain or mix, possibly lasting into the early AM hours. This has been a rather likely outcome since yesterday when the north trend began, and won't do much to impact final totals as it will be very light amounts of precipitation.

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  18. Well as you predicted CCCC models back a bit south like the NAM. Interested in what the 12z runs show for GFS and EURO today. What do you think?

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    1. I'm taking the 12z suite as the final say from the global models before moving to nowcasting and meso models. Not expecting any more major shifts as we are now less than 24 hours out and we have essentially lock-step agreement on track.

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  19. NWS is now forecasting a region of 18-24 inch totals in Monroe and Wayne counties

    here is their map

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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  20. Agreed CCC. We are in for BIG storm. We need to stop looking at each and every model run as they will be slightly different. You will drive your self nuts watching every single model.

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  21. NWS also has a 5 hour time where lakeshore winds will be sustained ABOVE 35 mph. That is blizzard conditions. They need to issue a blizzard watch ASAP.

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    Replies
    1. I think they're going to hold off until the afternoon or early morning before issuing one, if they decide to do it at all. Back in early January when I was in Buffalo for winter break and that big lake effect blizzard happened they waited until the storm was already ongoing before issuing one, and that was a situation with even stronger gusts and a higher snowfall forecast. This office is notoriously stringent with their issuance of blizzard warnings, and they will wait until they are absolutely certain of blizzard criteria before issuing one.

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    2. Yeah what is annoying is all of the outlets are talking about the major blizzard up in Maine expected but when I looked there the NWS are calling for LOWER winds then here. If it is a blizzard there then it is one here too.

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  22. When do folks think Blizzard Warnings will go up?

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  23. Hey Wx experts, is our storm the one that's starting to materialize on radar that is positioned between Wisconsin and Wyoming?

    Thanks
    Andy

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  24. Driving from Boston to Rochester tomorrow afternoon/evening - anyone heard about the NYS thruway being closed? Not looking forward to it based on all of the information coming in!

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    Replies
    1. Jill, I would advise to not drive tomorrow if don't have to.

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  25. When will be the onset of heavier snow be?

    I'm worried about the schools. If the trend is slightly slower, does that mean the kids can get to school fine in the morning, then have to get home through potentially blizzardish condition?

    Or will it not get that bad till evening commute?

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    Replies
    1. This is the way it usually is. The kids (and teachers) get to school so the schools can get their State Aid, then the weather gets AWFUL and it is really bad to get home.

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  26. Can we assign someone to look for the end of this garbage? Maybe a sign of it warming up?

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    Replies
    1. Well, it is almost mid March so hang in there. Hopefully this is the big storm that will usher in Spring. It tends to happen around here.

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    2. Hopefully April. Early/Mid March is almost still like winter in this region.

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  27. I know we need to deal with tomorrow first...BUT.....any idea on the storm potential for next week as well???

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  28. Is it okay to get really excited on this one? What are the chances for a mix or a let down?

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  29. garbage? Nature laughs at you. hahahahah

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  30. Or how about the dreaded Dry Slot?

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  31. Just changed my flight from tomorrow to this afternoon. Leaving sun and 83 for a blizzard!! Am I crazy or smart?! A little of both?! Can't miss the big one!!!!!

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  32. yeah i was wondering the same thing, this almost seems too good to be true, but most outlets expecting 12+ so they must be pretty confident. Anyone see any reason to be worried? other than the usual pesimists that say it will miss just because.

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  33. National Weather Service wind forecast has us with sustained winds over 30 mph and wind gust over 50 for a good 3-6 hour window.

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    Replies
    1. If that isn't a blizzard, what is?
      Doug

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    2. When is the window?

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  34. When will Blizzard warnings come out if the winds are to be 30+mph with heavy snow.

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  35. In the first graphic, was the "Significant Snow, Blowing Snow" added this morning, or was that there when Scott first posted?

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  36. I think people here need to calm down with the blizzard and 20 inches of snow talk until News 8 posts an update. Let's just wait to see what the pros say. John didn't seem concerned about a blizzard this morning.

    Man, the snow mongers can hardly contain their excitement here.

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  37. This one is going to be a whopper! 24"+ looks likely for once. If snowed in, I will be cracking rats in my dutch oven all day long under my covers!

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  38. Was in wegmans this morning, all sold out of bread and water, barely any milk left...had to get whole milk, ugh.

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  39. I asked my students if they thought we would have school tomorrow. 3 said there would be a snow day. The rest thought we would get to school and then all heck would break loose.

    Telling...

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    Replies
    1. Most likely my district will get them all here and then plan on dismissing early which is a nightmare for parents with child care issues etc. I think they will have to make the best judgement call...I know they won't want to cancel both days, but picking which one is hard. I guess in the end they have to make the best call with students safety in mind, lets hope they do. My students think we have a pretty good chance since we have only had one day off so far for cold

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  40. ok i think we obviously have someone posing as Snowdog again. And seriously? out of bread and milk? what do people expect...we have plows etc, its not like they wouldn't be able to go out in a day or so. Oh, and if someone posts as me, you will know it because i won't be mentioning KW or making any crazy claims etc, lets just ignore any posts that seem out of character. Thanks

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  41. Well the NAM got off the Roids from this morning and shows us in the 16 inch range instead of 30 inches. I think at least 12 inches and up to 16 maybe.

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  42. The Real WeatherguyMarch 11, 2014 at 10:39 AM

    Someone is posting as Weatherguy too. I did not go to Wegs this morning nor have I ever seen them sold out of milk and bread...

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  43. How bad is this really going to be?? I have people already taking the day off tomorrow.

    Where is CCCC? He predicted this storm early last week. Also, what is this I hear about another storm for Sunday?

    Will this winter ever end?

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    Replies
    1. I'm surprised CCCC didn't blow class off today to stay up to date.
      Ray

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    2. Euro weeklies say keep your summer clothes packed away for the next 4 weeks. Whatever that is worth.

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  44. 12z GFS has us in 14-16 inch range which falls in line with NAM. One left the 12z EURO. I would think a minimum of a foot to a foot and a half a lock.

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  45. KW states 12-18 as an average with higher amounts likely.

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  46. From NWS Discussion:

    TO SUMMARIZE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED A TREND TOWARDS A
    SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...DEEPER...AND SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
    MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE NET RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE MORE WINTRY
    MIX ALONG THE PA STATE LINE WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
    THERE...AND EVEN HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER NORTH FROM THE
    NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA TO THE EASTERN
    LAKE ONTARIO REGION. STORM TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 12-16
    INCH RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 18 INCHES. THE DEEPER
    SOLUTION ALSO LEADS TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORECAST WIND
    SPEEDS...WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DEVELOPING
    WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

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  47. News 8 or anyone else who can read the information do you know the timing of the storm when will snow start and when will it be heavy please help?

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    1. Specifically, will it snow like a banchee when the kids are trying to get home from school.

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    2. Yes most schools will make the wrong call and not close. If my kids were school age id keep them home if I could. Yes plows can keep up around here but only do much at a time in that type of weather.

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  48. Yeah, it's going to be a nightmare for the evening commute, especially if schools don't close.

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  49. Honestly, with this much warning ... why would we not close schools and businesses ahead of time to prevent people from having to drive in dangerous conditions? We wait to "make sure", then close things when the travel is the worst. Think safety folks!

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    Replies
    1. Agree! Hopefully it will be bad enough in the morning or forecaster confidence is so high that they make the call to close schools at least.

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    2. Two words: State Aid

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  50. I am all for snow but after this cold snowy winter I don't want to see more snow. Hopefully they end up closing schools tonight and the storm misses us completely. I remember about two years ago there was a storm in February forecasted to get over a foot of snow and we ended up getting dry slotted and only about 4 inches

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    Replies
    1. Oh I remember that too! It was nice getting up in the morning to see "nothing". Wish that were the case tomorrow. Sorry snow lovers. I'm anxiously awaiting Spring!
      GP

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  51. Where is CCCC he said he would be around today? Does anyone know what the 12z EURO that just ran showed?

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  52. The NWS has upped the totals to 12-20 inches now.

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  53. Surprised no update from News 8 team.

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    Replies
    1. There will be a new blog post before their 4pm newscast.

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  54. A lot of schools have creative ways to make up days. I highly doubt that, IF this storm continues to be forecasted as the monster it sounds like, Superintendents will put the safety of children at risk.

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  55. Whoever is posting as me please stop, I do not fart under my covers and do not like dutch ovens! I've only done that when I was younger

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  56. Oh man these SREF plumes are just bonkers. Range of 18-40 inches, mean of 29 inches. I think it goes without saying that this is beyond overdone. 12z NAM came back to its senses with "only" 18-24 inches regionwide. The SREFs initialize off of the NAM so I fully expect those to come back down as well. Check this out:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_12.gif

    70 percent chance for a foot or more. Very rare for us to receive that kind of outlook. Their QPF outlook paints an average of 1.25 inches of liquid equivalent across the region.

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  57. CCCC what did the 12z EURO show today?

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    Replies
    1. No important changes from 00z. Basically a carbon copy.

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  58. When does this thing start to apper on radar? Where are the elements now that will combine to make this happen?

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    1. Already on radar as a narrow stripe of precipitation across the Midwest. The primary features that will create our storm are still separate, but they will merge together over time to produce a much large storm system that will rapidly strengthen as it moves up the Ohio Valley.

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  59. And to think, just one week ago I basically outright dismissed the possibility of a low bombing to 980mb on a path from southern Illinois to the Catskills. What a fool I was to be such a doubter...

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    Replies
    1. You are still right on the money. I know we have to deal with this one tomorrow, but what about this next one coming in early next week?

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    2. Not even thinking about next week's potential at the moment, but my first impression of it at a glance is that it remains well south.

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  60. What about the timing. What are the schools going to do?

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    Replies
    1. Any superintendents that don't close are being outright foolish. The morning commute may not be too rough, but conditions will deteriorate through the late morning hours and remain hazardous through much of the evening.

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  61. What about Blizzard warnings???

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    1. Here's what the NWS discussion has to say about that:

      "THE WORST CONDITIONS OF ALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE NIAGARA-OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY LAKE ONTARIO...AND COULD WELL REACH 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD RESULT IN NEAR-TO-OUTRIGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THIS STRIP OF COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WE TOYED WITH UPGRADING THESE COUNTIES TO A BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE WOULD RESULT IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS STATED...SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL...AS AN UPGRADE MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY DEPENDENT UPON FURTHER POSSIBLE SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK...HOWEVER SLIGHT THESE MAY BE."

      So far it doesn't appear as though the 18z NAM is south of the 12z run at all, maybe a hair north actually and slightly stronger. I'd place the probability of blizzard warnings at around 50 percent right now.

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  62. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 24 hours. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  63. KW lowered his totals to 12-16 with higher amounts near the lake.

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  64. Scott just posted an update on FB. Looking like a general 10 to 18 inches for most of us.

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  65. The NAM is scaring me a little with how consistent it's been with higher amounts. It actually ticked up slightly from 12z. We're starting to get into its element a bit too. It'll be interesting to see what the other shorter range meso models show as combining those tends to produce pretty accurate QPF predictions.

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    Replies
    1. CCCC what did recent NAM show and what are the other shorter range meso models?

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  66. Who knows. No-one wants to come out and say 30" of snow, but it has happend before when it was not forecasted. If I was a Meteorologist I do not think I would be bold enough to say 30". It could still happen though. Hopefully this will be a memorable storm for us.

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    Replies
    1. No one should jump on board with 30 inch amounts. The NAM doesn't even depict that anymore, but then again amounts like that seemingly always occur by surprise. 12-20 inches, as unbelievable at it may be, seems reasonable.

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  67. Also remember that the 14 to 18 inches is only till 11 PM there will be more after that about an additional 3-6 after 11 PM.

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  68. Can't, Stop Refreshing!

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  69. Dan Russell at TW News has only 6-12.

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    Replies
    1. We might get 6-12 by 4pm tomorrow if that's what he was referring to...

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    2. His total...lol

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  70. SREFs continue to be bullish with a range of 20-30 inches discounting outlier-ish members. Again, they're initialized off of the wet-biased NAM. Scale it back by two thirds to get something more reasonable.

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  71. Still no new post? Not hearing any talk from mets now about lake enhancement?

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    Replies
    1. Check out this image taken today:

      http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/webdata/modis/buf_img/a1.14070.1804.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg

      Rest assured, lake enhancement will be a factor.

      Delete
  72. Tweeted by Reed Timmer just now:

    https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/443492588302004224/photo/1/large

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  73. the 95th percentile shows 27-30 inches of snow across us. I know this is probably too high but that is the 95th percentile.

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    Replies
    1. And if one took a range from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile, which is well within one standard deviation, then a snowfall range of 1-2 feet can be derived.

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  74. I'm just waiting for Scott to come on here and give us reasons why this numbers are too high but boy that would make this really memorable!

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  75. Some schools have closed already for tomorrow.

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