COLD START TO SPRING...BIG SURPRISE
Nice & more seasonable today! It will turn a little unsettled Wednesday afternoon in advance of the cold front above, which will likely lead to a little rain that could very well begin as a little snow/mix for many thanks to evaporative cooling, but snow/mix will quickly change to rain as readings will rebound some after the cooling back into the low to mid 40s late Wednesday into early Wednesday night.
Come Thursday, the official start of spring will really not feel or look like it with a little snow in the air & temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 30s, & wind chills in the 20s.
Friday looks quiet with some sun fading behind clouds, & then later Friday night into Saturday a little system will likely affect us. The big question with the Friday night - Saturday system is the track. The Euro has it passing by to the south with mainly a minor accumulating snow affecting us, but the GFS has a more northerly track & a little rain, mix & snow solution with not much snow accumulation. I'm leaning toward the Euro because it usually does better several days out than the GFS, but time will tell. Either way, it's going to turn bitterly cold again to round out the weekend with some limited lake snows! It will stay very cold for much of next week too, with the potential for a snowfall next Tuesday &/or Wednesday. Stay tuned. No sign of real spring in the near future...hang in there warm weather fans. Eventually it will get here in one form or another.
Have a great day everyone!
Not just potential for a snowfall next Tuesday but potential for a blockbuster storm stay tuned.
ReplyDeleteIDK, the trend all season save for last week's blizzard has been for the ingredients for a potential blockbuster to remain unphased (separate) and result in a weaker storm. 500mb heights in the northeastern Atlantic do look to rise by the storm potential's timeframe, which would indicate some blocking to help a phase and a stronger storm occur, but I'm not sure it would be enough.
DeleteCCCC stop please see my post Anon 1:42
DeleteStop what? I expressed skepticism about there being a blockbuster storm, what more do you want? We do have the ingredients for a large storm, but the setup for them to come together and form one is questionable.
DeleteToo much cold air (PV) equals suppression we have seen it already with 2 recent storms.
DeleteOnly if the PV is centered too close by. Remember where it was during the blizzard...centered near Greenland, which is approximately where it will be in about a week when the storm potential time frame arrives. So while I don't trust this setup to produce a major storm I'm also not about to sing the suppression blues anytime soon.
DeleteIn retrospect, I think "amplification" is a better term to use in this context than "phasing." I don't see any sort of split jet flow that would make this a potential phasing scenario. Still, the trend all season has been for flatter more progressive storms as opposed to amplified ones.
DeleteSince a new thread was just created and the person who asked might not see the response I posted to their question in the last one, here is the distinction between Miller A type storms and Miller B type storms:
ReplyDeleteMiller A type storms are single low pressure systems that originate in the southeastern US or in the Gulf of Mexico, and move NE along or off the coast. Sometimes they can move due north or even retrograde towards the NW. The 1993 Superstorm and the April Nor'easter of 2007 were Miller A storms, the latter of which took a retrograding track. Miller B type storms consist of inland lows that move up into the lower Midwest or the Ohio Valley before weakening and redeveloping near the coast due to a blocking high pressure system to the north. They are more complex than Miller A storms because they consist of multiple low pressure centers. The Blizzard of 1996 and the March Nor'easter of 1960 were Miller B storms. Miller A systems tend to favor narrower swaths near coastal areas while Miller B systems usually affect a much larger area. The placement of that area depends on where the blocking high is and how strong it is, but from what I've seen our region tends to do better with Miller B systems.
Thank you.
DeleteThe likelihood of a major Miller B type storm to develop in the last week of march is basically none. Too many factors that have to be exact just are not there this late in the winter. So do not worry blog people some like to be alarmists please see anon 1:30 post.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what this means but the GGEM 12z ensembles look really interesting? Perhaps CCCC could elaborate on if these are useful or garbage?
ReplyDeleteWhere are you even getting the 12z GGEM ensembles from? The site I use is still on 00z.
DeleteActually redact what I just said...thank you Accuweather forums. The mean looks too far east for my liking but there is a lot of member spread. Some of them look amazing, others not so much.
DeleteWhat are they CCCC and do they generally have any reliability?
ReplyDeleteHere is the mean and individual members:
Deletehttp://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm
Notice how different each of the members are from one another. This indicates that there is a high level of uncertainty present.
CCCC looking at the 12z GFS run looks like it shows a double barrel LPs with one going OTS and the other coming up the coast in 8 days? Not sure about 12z EURO?
ReplyDeleteWell CCCC have you seen the 12z EURO? A little east but a monster storm off the coast. The EURO picked up our blizzard last Wednesday early too. The scary thing is the 12z GFS also has a strong LP coming up the coast too and the 12z GGEM ensembles did have a couple monster storms too. Just saying if the models keep trending with this could get mighty interesting some where on the east coast mid week next week.
ReplyDeleteAlso forgot to mention there is a lot of cold air to work with too next week. Of course far off but just wonder what Scott would say about what these models are showing this late in March?
ReplyDeleteThat is indeed quite a beast on the Euro. Too bad there's zero consistency so far.
ReplyDeleteAgain the EURO was on our Blizzard over 7 days in advance. GFS does show east coast storm too 8 days out plus several of those GGEM ensembles do show a bomb on the coast so agree no consistency but at least worth keeping an eye on for what future runs say all week.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that the Euro also had our blizzard in consistently the same track and strength even at long range. This time around, no such deal.
DeleteCCCC you go from throwing out a possible Miller B to at least keep an eye out to now being negative about the 12z runs? You sure you are not masking as Snowdog? Your negativity is not good and unusual. You did say since the harsh cold is showing for next week you might as well jump on the snow bandwagon ha ha.
ReplyDeleteI think we have a miscommunication going somewhere. Let me summarize my thoughts:
Delete-It is unfair to compare the Euro's handling of our blizzard with its handling of this potential storm, because with the blizzard it was consistent while here it is not.
-The lack on consistency between runs of all models makes confidence in any scenario quite low.
-I'm still skeptical of (but not denying the possibility of) a big storm due to trends of the season and possible lack of help from downstream blocking.
-Anything aside from a track through the Yucatan is still on the table.
-I'm still on the snow bandwagon.
Well consistency on the Blizzard started 8 days out so guess we will have to keep seeing what the Oz and 12z model runs show the rest of the week. Maybe that consistency starts now!
DeleteWinter Storm/Blizzard to hit the Flower City in 7 days. Mark it down!!!!
ReplyDeleteImposter above so no storm for sure.
DeleteLarry Cosgrove major east coast storm next week! I guess he is someone important? I am sure CCCC will know who he is.
ReplyDeleteI know who he is, and IMO he's been hit or miss all season. That said, he's not the only pro who likes the storm idea. Bernie Rayno is feeling a bit frisky about it as well. I still can't help but recall the "biblical storm that wasn't" from back in February that had strong signals from more than a week away and abruptly fizzled with about 6 days left. Everyone thought the Northeast was in for a serious storm and it turned out to be a standard clipper with light snow. Lack of downstream blocking was probably the culprit IMO. So I refuse to ride the hype train on this one until Friday at the absolute earliest. I still feel as though any downstream blocking might develop too late to be favorable for an amplified storm, and the whole thing turns into a strung-out progressive mess instead. This isn't necessarily what I'm leaning towards, just a big concern of mine.
DeleteKW catching on to next Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. he was on to the Blizzard early too just saying. He said keep an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteHe was onto the blizzard early because the Euro was onto the blizzard early, and because the North Atlantic blocking pattern was favorable for an organized storm. Such a pattern will develop again next week, but the timing of it looks a bit sketchy to me.
DeleteCCCC you are probably right but Rayno has been pretty good the last few storms. Interesting to see what Oz EURO says tonight.
ReplyDeleteOk CCCC you were right again we can not take a deep sigh because the Oz runs have no storm both GFS and EURO way OTS! Really happy because lets get this spring started now.
ReplyDeleteI wish. But after today I don't see a single daily high even close to normal in the 10 day forecast.
DeleteAndy
Don't count out next Tuesday and Wednesday. Talk is the Winter Storm has the potential to be stronger and more significant than last Wednesday's Blizzard. Winter is not done yet, and will be here for a while still. So those who LOVE winter, are thrilled and excited.
ReplyDeleteAnon 7:49 you are nuts! Counting it out not going to happen with the PV suppression and not enough downfield blocking to allow any stroms to get really amped up. We are good and get your spring gear out after next week.
ReplyDeleteAnon 9:18...why so confident about spring arriving after next week? Do you see a major, long lasting pattern change?
ReplyDeleteYes cold next week but see a change occuring around first week of April. We will get more seasonable temperatures then. Confident that WNY will not get a snowstorm next week for sure. Maybe NE or the coast but will never get up far enough NW no matter what or how strong a storm develops.
ReplyDeleteProvide a link to the maps/data to support your claim. Otherwise it's just wishcasting.
DeleteWhere are your maps/data to support your claim talk about a winter storm next week in your 7:49 post?
DeleteIt call listening to KW on 10 who talked about it.
DeleteDoes the recent sudden stratospheric warming mean a frigid April?
ReplyDeleteAnother OTS on the 12z GFS just out. Read my lips NO SNOWSTORM!!!
ReplyDeleteWe'll need to see your actual lips first...
DeleteModels aren't everything...one reliable technique which has been employed recently is to observe what happens to systems in East Asia. That will often correlate to the US about a week later. Right now there is a strong system in that region which will skirt Japan's southern shores before heading out to sea. If that were to be translated here, then we would see a similar storm head across the Southeast before exiting the coast somewhere in the Carolinas, and also heading out to sea. So yes, the case to be made today is for a storm that slides out to sea well south of here.
ReplyDeleteEnsembles are showing, and have been showing, a more zonal flow returning by very late in the month. What remains to be seen is whether this will be long term or just a temporary blip. The Euro weeklies would argue more for a temporary blip, and they have been quite reliable recently. We'll see what happens in future ensemble runs.
Not sure what your second paragraph means?
ReplyDeleteSeasonable temps for a time, but the odds lean slightly towards it being temporary before a dip back to below normal.
DeleteI would guess the great KW will start tempering back his storm talk for next week starting today.
ReplyDeleteMaybe not Anon 2:32 because the 12z EURO has a strong LP again far off the coast for us. KW does track gthe EURO.
ReplyDeleteAnon 12:19 -- read the above.
DeleteWow I will say this if that LP does come up coast and move west it is HUGE! The LP is just off CC and is 964 mbs yikes and that has appeared on the last two 12z runs of the EURO.
ReplyDeleteThe North Atlantic lobster population gets crushed on that run.
DeleteGoing to say this CCCC. I know or get the strong sense you have buried this storm idea. However, they way this winter has gone I am not going to say done deal 7 days out. Strange things have happened this winter.
ReplyDeleteI haven't buried the storm idea so much as I've slid it to the back of the shelf.
DeleteCCCC I have taken it off the back of your shelf and buried it deep in the trash. YTime to get heading towards spring. I thought there maybe one last major bomb to send off the winter. But not happening so please warm-up!
ReplyDeleteStill so much chatter about apossible gigantic east coast storm next week?
ReplyDeleteI would rate this winter a 7 out 10. 10 being snowy, cold and stormy. The only reason I give it a 7 is due to only 102" of snow. This is just a bit over average and not impressive. Coldest winter I have seen in awhile. Also, the Blizzard lastweek was nice but did not come close to the Blizzard of 93 or 89, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteMany of the weather people has discounted the snow measurements done at the Airport as they have stated there were several winter storms in which the inches of snow fallen were not recorded. So they are questioning the accurary of the 102 measurement. Overall it was a snowy, very COLD winter; and if you live up by the Lake -- it was really snowy.
DeleteI prefer a GPA-based approach. I would give the intensity of cold a 3.5, duration of cold a 4.0, overall snowiness a 2.0, overall storminess a 3.5, snowcover a 2.5 and overall consistency a 3.5 (storms and cold spread throughout the season). Final GPA is 3.17, which is a solid B on the 4.0 scale.
ReplyDeleteMarking period not over yet!
ReplyDeleteI like CCCCs approach, however I would have liked to see a more prolonged snow pack in Dec and Jan. Also agree with anon 1:11PM that the marking period isn't over yet.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the NWS we are just shy of a foot above normal season to date-- so pretty darn snowy. We're at 103" and unfortunately have a good solid chance of hitting or exceeding my target of 110".
Andy
Are you saying we can expect another Winter Storm next Tuesday/Wednesday? Not much is mentioned mentioned by the Weather folks at this point. C-Quad, what are you seeing and your thoughts?
DeleteI'm not saying anything about a winter storm. I'm just playing the odds based on weather history and statistical analysis. We avg around 3" of snow in April and I'd be suprised if we didn't see at least 3" more in March, even if it's a 1/2" at a time. Unfortunately it seems the cold air will be around for a while to support this scenario.
DeleteAndy
There will be no storm in WNY next week. Way off the coast and will not impact us at all.
ReplyDeleteThen what Storm is Andy talking about above; as they would be 7+ inches of snow.
DeleteI never said anything about a storm so please don't put words in my mouth. See my post at 2:46--- we don't need any storms to get to 110".
DeleteAndy
Not 100 percent true Anon 2:31. The EURO again a strong storm and is east however can never say that it will not move a great deal west especially with 5/6 days out. The Miller A idea CCCC mentioned the other day not impossible.
ReplyDeleteI'll be paying a lot more attention to other affairs than I will to this storm. Pretty reasonably certain it's going to be a miss for us anyway, guidance appears to be converging on a solution that would favor the coastal regions.
ReplyDeleteYep we had ours last week.
ReplyDeleteCCCC we can pretty much concede this will be more on the coast. But have you checked out the 12z EURO ensembles and see the strength of the possible storm on many of the members. That is pretty unusual still 5 to 6 days out is it not? I think this could be a biggie for coastal areas.
ReplyDeleteStorm will be a MONSTER next week and still the door is not closed. Have to wait until Sunday for that.
ReplyDeleteC-Quad -- any thoughts to the implied MONSTER storm for next week. Keep hearing comflicting reports.
DeleteOh it will be a MONSTER just not going to hit us in WNY.
DeleteKW is yippee-yahooing about a warmup at the end of next week. Channel 13 is saying 40s. Any guidance here?
ReplyDeleteYes warm up next weekend and beyond. Spring is here!
ReplyDeleteStarting around April 1st and no not a joke we will be in the 60s to 70s for at least a week. Yes!
ReplyDeleteLink to the data please
DeleteHello, stupid people booming their music.
DeleteGoodbye peace and quiet.
It is called the GFS model 6z and check out today's 12z and the projected temperatures.
ReplyDeleteFor a laugh, I looked at accuweather's extended. True, they have 2 days around 4/1 with 60 degrees, but then nothing above 55 for most of April. Any veracity to this?
ReplyDelete