Late Winter Snowstorm on the Horizon (or Not)?
Alright, I know you've been waiting for it, so here it is! The extremely uncertain, but possibly fun, and potential non-snowstorm that is 4-5 days away! Models have obviously been hinting at this (which is why we're talking about it) but at this point in time, all we can really do is to watch for some sort of consensus to take shape. This thread is really just to get the conversation started, and we'll continue to tweak the forecast as the days and hours draw closer. I've got a feeling that we could get 6"+ in some part of our viewing area from this. I know, that's a very broad statement, but it's also a half of a week away. Let's hear your thoughts. Ready, GO!
Thanks for indulging us. I think this is the last whale watch of the season.
ReplyDeleteI was working all day, what I miss...
ReplyDeleteA little bit of everything. Snow dog threw in thetowel and may have mentioned something about 100 inches along with some anonymous folks and then they were back in it later after realizing the storm threat actually didn't dissapear. CcCC came on long enough to talk some people off the ledge and then finally someone from news 8 started a fresh post after not hearing from them for a while, and now here we r......
ReplyDeleteJN at 10 said have to keep an eye on it could be heavy snow. I believe we are looking at 10-14 inches by Thursday morning.
ReplyDeleteSo where did you find those figures?
DeleteI am going by the EURO verifying. If that does happen I think we get at least a foot and believe as Weatherguy has said there is lack enhancement. Ontario is not frozen and is open for business.
DeleteHaha thanks Farmington, I expected pretty much all of that to happen. I just looked at the models and this setup is screaming lake enhancement like the last storm! Still a lot of time though...
ReplyDeleteI guess I am reading the models wrong. To me they scream South and East but obviously that is not the case. I really hope we get this one and it is more than a 1ft.
ReplyDeleteSnowdog you may right because still uncertainty but as CCCC has pointed out you have looked at a few wrong things today.
ReplyDeleteEverything Snowdog sees is South & East. Snowdog - Will 1 ft. be sufficient?
DeleteThere will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 5 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteSays late winter storm and calendar wise it is late. But weather wise not unusual. Remember same date 21 years ago the monster was formed.
ReplyDeleteStill have an inkling this baby is going southeast. PA/Maryland area, its just the trend! But I'll be as giddy as a school boy if we somehow come away with 1-2 ft! I hope we get it, but my big gut tells me no still..
ReplyDeleteOh Boy the impersonator is back.
DeleteWhen do you feel Winter Storm Advisory, Watch, and Warnings will go up? Could we possibly get 1-3 feet of snow over night on Wednesday as some are talking about?
ReplyDeleteNot a chance..
DeleteGJ of 13 states 3-4 inches and the BIG snows stay South like I have been saying.
ReplyDeleteHa ha GJ finally all over it with 3-4 inches.
DeleteKW has not tweeted anything either so te local METS do not see anything too big around here.
ReplyDeleteStill early and not set in stone but 0z GFS in line with EURO gives us a nice 8-10 inch snowfall.
ReplyDeleteWow still early but Oz EURO BAM again! Nice hit for WNY if I am reading it right. EURO been pretty consistent giving us over a foot. Have to wait for CCCCs report.
ReplyDeleteThe EURO gives us more than 8-10
ReplyDeletesnowdog likes dick
ReplyDeleteReally not cool.
DeleteCome on Anon 8:05 that is not needed on the blog.
ReplyDeleteYou are all crazy! Snowstorms in January and February=cool! Snowstorms in March=cruel! Snow, snow, go AWAY! Come on spring!!!!
ReplyDeleteOne more! One more! One more!
DeleteMaybe two! Maybe two!
Definitely childish Anon 8:05. Also, undeserved. Snowdog frequently takes the unpopular position of bust. But I don't think he is ever insulting. That's just how he sees it.
ReplyDeleteConfidence among the NWS seems to be increasing for Western, NY seeing a significant snowfall Wednesday. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteThere will be a Blizzard within the Flower City within 4 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
ReplyDeleteI would not be to concerned with trying to put snowfall totals on an event this far out. Yesterdays 12Z and todays 00Z ECMWF and GFS runs are starting to come into closer agreement with storm track. The ECMWF still has a stronger LP. It is starting to look more likely WNY will be in for some significant snowfall Wednesday-Thursday morning.
ReplyDeleteThe EURO has a 984 MB low over Eastern PA. That would be nice for Western, NY
ReplyDeleteDid Snowdog just took a taste of kool aid.
DeleteThis just got very interesting.
Wow quiet here where is CCCC? So NAM also good run along with 6z GFS and Oz EURO last night. All look pretty consistent with track and us getting at least 8-10 inches. Now waiting for 12z GFS and EURO runs they are now an hour later.
ReplyDeleteHe likes to recover from college shenanigans on the weekend. He said he wouldn't be around much.
DeleteI'm sure he'll have a lot to say this week.
I'm betting he can't resist and will chime in later today. But I bet he's sleeping off his youth.
So are we looking at 8 to 10 inches overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning?
ReplyDeleteHello 12z GFS just took a great track similar to EURO and NAM. Plus got stronger like EURO. My prediction is going up now. I say 12-18 inches with the 18 occurring if we get lake enhancement. Not an expert but that is what I see and the confidence level has to be rising with our local mets?
ReplyDeleteSo 1-2 feet of snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning is possible.
ReplyDeleteI think at least 12 inches based on what I am seeing with the model consistency now and the GFS getting stronger each run. Interested in what CCCC and Scott think?
ReplyDeleteIf this is the case, the local weather folks should begin to get on this, and all should begin to make plans for Wednesday night into Thursday. Need to start walking about Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. Would start to cancel or reschedule any plans, business meetings, etc. Wonder how it will impact St. Patrick's Day Parade on the 15th.
ReplyDeleteSeeing that storm is wed/Thur and Friday and Saturday are in the 30s I would say not at all for the parade they have had it in the snow before so this is nothing for them
DeleteThere will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 4 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAgain it is still 3 days out so nothing set in stone. I want to make that clear this is what I think. Do not think south movement will happen but hope it does not move more north with the storm. We are at this time in the bulls eye with the latest EURO (we always have been with this model), GFS and NAM both have come to the EURO as of today.
ReplyDeleteI must repeat that lake enhancement cannot be overlooked. The projected track is extremely similar to the Valentine's Day storm that gave us a solid 15"+. Still a lot of time with this but the models are beginning to all fall in line...
ReplyDeleteStill have to be cautious if the models today still show the same thing tomorrow on their 12z runs then I think we would be in for a big snowfall.
ReplyDeleteI will admit the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and now the 12Z GFS have got me VERY excited for what COULD be our POTENTIALLY BIGGEST storm of this season, and possibly in quit a while. If the models verified this would be our biggest impact storm of the season. It is still early but the GFS has trended STRONGER earlier more in line with ECMWF. Time will tell. Very exciting!!!
ReplyDeleteWow CCCC must really be tired from a long night.
ReplyDeleteWhen does the next model run of note come out? Our time.
ReplyDeleteI am worried at this point that the models have set us up for disappointment. The trend in the past 24 hours could not have been better for WNY, HOWEVER the timing of the phasing of the northern stream energy diving south and the piece of energy coming east out of the Rockies is key for a BIG storm here. Tomorrow the models should have a good handle on the timing and track, hopefully it doesn't change much from here on out.
ReplyDeleteAgree sampling will be done tomorrow with the big piece of energy about to come onto the pacific coast.Just hope the timing/phasing stays the way the EURO has depicted
DeleteThe 12z EURO starts running now around 2:00 pm our time then the Oz at 2:00am. The next 18z GFS is 5:30 and 11:30. Tomorrow the important runs will be the 12z GFS at 11:30am and the 12z EURO at 2:00 pm. If tomorrow looks like the ones that ran last night and today then we should be in good shape for at least a foot I believe.
ReplyDeleteI love when the METS come out and say we are in for a plowable snow. That could mean 3". I also wish these storms would slow down. They always move so fast.
ReplyDeleteIn my mind its still too early to get too excited. At this point I would venture a guess that its a good bet we get some snow, but I'm not crossing my fingers for 12+ until either Scott says so or we. Get close enough that models r definitely in agreement.
ReplyDeleteWhere is CCCC?
ReplyDeletePretty sure the 12z EURO was another good hit for WNY? Would be nice if we could get a news 8 met to at least post what their thoughts are at the current time.
ReplyDeletePretty amazing how quiet this blog is including not a peep from news 8.
ReplyDeleteNot really quiet at all. Lots of posts since last night. I think they've said about as much given the current models. Tomorrow afternoon runs will be important.
DeleteJN tweeted that he thinks the heaviest snow will fall in the Finger lakes and points South.
ReplyDeleteFrom the NWS:
ReplyDeleteA GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEFS SHOWS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY RECEIVING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW...BUT
WHETHER THAT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA IS STILL IN
QUESTION. ALSO...GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL VARIABILITY OF STORM TRACKS
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SWATH...WILL HOLD OFF A LITTLE
LONGER ON A WINTER STORM WATCH UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
You know it was a good night when you wake up with fluorescent smiley faces all over your left arm. No I did not just wake up, thanks for asking -_-
ReplyDeleteI also believe the axis of heaviest snow will be in the Finger Lakes. That of course does not preclude heavy amounts here in Rochester, especially with the big lake possibly getting involved. Modeled amounts look pretty beefy, especially on the NAM (not surprising in the least). We have to keep in mind that the global models can frequently lowball QPF at this range, especially with such a dynamic system. They typically cannot resolve small scale convective features until the short range. Recall how the modeled QPF for our last significant trended substantially higher leading up to the zero hour. I think we look good for a significant snowstorm at the very least out of this. And the way things look right now, it may not be the last shot we have at a good storm this season. But that's a discussion that can wait until after this one.