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Sunday, March 9

MY THOUGHTS ON THE UPCOMING STORM

I'm coming back from a weekend trip but I will have more a more complete post later tonight.  When I say plowable, I mean at least 6" of snow whoch looks likely with this weeks storm. 


Scott Hetsko

25 comments:

  1. At least 6'' Snowdog the latest NAM had WNY hit good too!!!

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  2. 18z GFS still good hit of snow 10-12 inches for WNY. I know things can change and tomorrows runs are crucial but there seems to me to be a real good consensus of track and amounts on the models. The NAM, GFS and EURO have us at least anywhere from 8 to 16 inches at minimum. Again that is what I am seeing but no expert by any means. Not sure where CCCC is today.

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  3. JN states that the heaviest snow will fall in the Finger lakes and South.

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  4. Yes thanks Snowdog but if things verify we in the city will get at least 8 inches. Thanks for the optimism SD.

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  5. Where is CCCC????????

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  6. I made the following post in the last thread by mistake because in my advanced state of lethargy I did not notice that Scott had made a new one:


    You know it was a good night when you wake up with fluorescent smiley faces all over your left arm. No I did not just wake up, thanks for asking -_-

    I also believe the axis of heaviest snow will be in the Finger Lakes. That of course does not preclude heavy amounts here in Rochester, especially with the big lake possibly getting involved. Modeled amounts look pretty beefy, especially on the NAM (not surprising in the least). We have to keep in mind that the global models can frequently lowball QPF at this range, especially with such a dynamic system. They typically cannot resolve small scale convective features until the short range. Recall how the modeled QPF for our last significant trended substantially higher leading up to the zero hour. I think we look good for a significant snowstorm at the very least out of this. And the way things look right now, it may not be the last shot we have at a good storm this season. But that's a discussion that can wait until after this one.

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  7. If you made a guesstimate CCCC based on all the model information you have seen what do you think the snow totals will be north of the thruway?

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    Replies
    1. Taken verbatim from the models we'd be looking at 8-16 inches.

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    2. That is a big spread. who would get the 16". 8" is NBD.

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    3. I do not how winter storm watches are not up from NWS? Right at least a watch all models have us on a good track?

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    4. South the finger lakes region as the great JN has pointed out but still feel the lake will enhance totals north of the thruway.

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  8. Stacey you posted yesterday and now it is your turn. What is your prediction for snowfall?

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  9. I feel that the models are over estimating snowfall because of the increase in sun angle compared to january and early february I feel that we are looking at more around 4-8 inches by storm end but I may be wrong. I have not been doing much with weather lately and am trying to get my feet wet again.

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    Replies
    1. Sun angle could toast the flakes somewhat, but looking through some past early/mid March storms it doesn't appear that it would hurt ratios as much as you're implying. We're talking a half inch to an inch of liquid equivalent the way things currently stand, to get as little as 4 inches would require very poor ratios. 850s are solidly below freezing, going as low as -10C during the peak of the storm and barely tickling -5C. This is a case where the quality of the dendritic growth zone will be much more important IMO, and with a storm like this it's safe to assume that we'll have very good dendritic growth. Of course we could always see a trend towards a later phase and less of a crash of cold air, but right now there's nothing to indicate such a thing.

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    2. Just my opinion but if this storm was modeled right now to hit mid- atlantic (big cities) it would be talked about a lot more as a large storm. I think this is going to produce a good amount of snow.

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  10. I know I keep hearing late season snow storm but we are still in winter and as I have posted before Wednesday is the 21st anniversary of the Superstorm! Not unusual to get big snow numbers on March 12th.

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  11. Track change could certainly happen and hurt us but I think the storm strength has gotten stronger and will continue to do so. It has gotten stronger each run on the GFS and NAM.

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  12. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 3 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    1. The NAM would actually get us to true blizzard criteria, with 40+ mph gusts for at least 3 hours to go along with the heavy snow. So there's a non-negligible (but still quite small) chance you may be correct this time. Too bad it's just the NAM showing this...

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  13. Nasty Accurate Model will foretell a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 3 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  14. Want to know what Weatherguy thinks?

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  15. You've got to be kidding me...NWS Buffalo radar is down AGAIN. This is the THIRD FRIGGING TIME it has happened in the past month, and the second time in the days leading up to a significant weather event. They had better get it fixed before Wednesday or I'm suing them, their bosses, their mothers, their pets, and The Weather Channel just because.

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  16. Sorry guys, it's tough to blog at work! But I think 12z runs tomorrow will solidify the track/intensity of the storm. I like what models are showing now for everyone and agree that southern tier may see the heftiest snows based on where the area of greatest convergence is projected to set up. Charles makes a good point about sun angle, but CCCC also makes a good point about the 850 mb temps being more than cold enough. As I said before and with the last storm, DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE LAKE ENHANCEMENT! Can't wait to hear what Scott thinks.

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  17. I am really interested in hearing Scott's thoughts.

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