STORM SHOULD BE ALL THAT YOU HOPED IT WOULD BE
Written By: Scott Hetsko
If I wasn't living it, I'd find it hard to believe! All the data continues to point at a real significant snow storm for Rochester tomorrow. It will be really interesting to watch the temperatures drop between 6am and noon. Heavy snow, combined with NNE wind gusts near 35 mph will cause widespread blowing and drifting of snow.
14 to 18" of snow with lake help looks likely although a few town will probably reach 20" by early Thursday. This will be the exception, not the rule. There's little doubt in my mind that this one will end up being the biggest snow storm for the area of the season. What a way to wrap up the worst Winter in at least 10 years!
Have fun and more importantly, BE SAFE!
Interesting Ch 10's map just showed 16"plus south of Rochester. Totally different from what Scott is saying in that the heaviest accumulations will be over the Rochester.
ReplyDeleteDoug
I think it's nit picking at this point.
ReplyDeleteTime to sit back and enjoy.
Or curse.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140311&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ROC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.904676850756566&mLON=-77.51035178893316&mTYP=roadmap
ReplyDeletesnowfall computer models
So according to that local forecasts are still at the low end of the range. Am I reading that correctly.
DeleteThat particular guidance suite is always too high with snowfall amounts. As a rule of thumb, scale it down by two thirds to get something more reasonable. And make sure to discount the outlier-ish looking members.
DeleteYeah but still that puts us around 2 ft
DeleteIs that a mean of 25 inches?
DeleteThat's a lot right. How much would we really get?
Taking only the members in the 20-30 inch range and scaling them by two thirds would yield a 14-20 inch range. That still might be a bit high, but not terribly unreasonable.
DeleteI am excited and nervous at the same time about this storm. Driving a 10-wheeler with 17' of plow and wing in front of you during ZERO visibility is VERY challenging to say the least. If things come together as they appear they are going to this will be as close to a blizzard as you can get without actually calling it a blizzard. I know it doesn't mater if it is 6' or 20" with that type of wind, visibility will be TRUELY ZERO in open areas.
ReplyDeleteAs long as OBS report 3 or more consecutive hours of 35+ mph gusts we can call it a blizzard, regardless of headlines. The fact that the thumb of Lower Michigan currently has a Wind Advisory despite being well north of the storm track might be a bit telling in regards to future headlines here.
ReplyDeleteAirport temp is beginning to crash, down 6 degrees over the past hour.
It was VERY windy in Hamlin during the first lake enhanced storm this season that dropped over a foot. That storm was NOT EVEN CLOSE to as intense as this LP is going to be. Winds could make travel IMPOSSIBLE tomorrow evening in northern towns.
DeleteAbsolutely, I don't envy anyone who has to traverse the roads up there. People might get stranded if they try.
DeleteI think the NWS will be smart and will issue blizzard warnings sometime during the overnight tonight. Snowfall will be 18-24 inches by thursday morning with isolated 26 inch totals.
ReplyDeleteAgree Charles. And I actually believe they will once the storm begins taking form.
ReplyDeleteAnd have any of you heard of a Severe Blizzard Warning!? Gusts 45 mph+ and temperatures below 10 degrees... Found it on wikipedia!
ReplyDeleteToo bad we don't have those anymore because the temperature component no longer factors into the definition of a "blizzard."
DeleteIve heard of Severe Hard Nipple warning....
ReplyDeleteholy lol
Deletealso agree, could slice through a diamond with these puppies right now...
This kind of forecast causes that condition.
DeleteHahahaha Im going to issue a Vaseline advisory
DeleteReal men don't need vaseline...
DeleteDutch Oven Warning??
Delete100 inch debate.
ReplyDeleteOver.
Watch as our storm total comes in at 13.5 inches and brings our final seasonal total to 99.9 inches.
DeleteSnowdog would never let us hear the end of it.
DeleteGuess driving from Boston to Rochester isn't happening tomorrow! So is it Albany where I stop or Utica?
ReplyDeleteHow early are you willing to hit the road?
DeleteIf you leave early enough in the morning I imagine you could get yourself far enough east to avoid any major complications on your trip. Things aren't supposed to get too bad until later in the morning.
DeleteCannot leave until noon and with the Blizzard warning I have no choice now.
DeleteSo I decided to come home a day early. Thankfully. When we got to the airport they had already canceled our original flight for tomorrow. More than 24 hours in advance. So thanks to all of you because its your predictions that convinced me to cut short our trip to Disney by a day!! You guys are awesome!!
ReplyDeleteI never thought I'd see the day where we were thanked for shortening someone's vacation...but hey no problem :D
DeleteKW said blizzard warnings are expected to be issued in the early morning hours
ReplyDeleteDid he receive that as a message from the NWS or is it just his own personal expectation?
DeleteI'm assuming he has heard that info from NWS
DeleteFYI, my husband works for DOT and he said they are already discussing plans to shut down I-90 tomorrow evening and travel bans will also likely be issued.
ReplyDeleteWe have to give credit to KW on this one. He called it last week and said that the models would line up with the EURO.
ReplyDeleteNaturally, there's a reason we have the moniker "King Euro." It latched onto the storm scenario early and never yielded.
DeleteSnowdog will you be in your dutch oven tomorrow?
Deleteyou bet'cha! my skivies will be colored brown! Eating burritos tonight too
DeleteIf this storm pans out I don't see why we wouldn't go past 100 for the year. I'm sure this isn't the last inch of snow that is coming. I've already resigned myself to the sad fact I won't see a blade of grass until well into April.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the radar the storm is just starting to take shape. Look at the precipitation blossoming in NW Missouri.
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last Blizzard Warning issued in Rochester?
ReplyDeleteMarch 1999 I believe.
DeleteDoes anyone recall how deep the pressure dropped with the 1999 blizzard as it crossed eastern NY.
DeleteNARR reanalysis shows that it dipped to below 988mb:
Deletehttp://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0304.php
And then we have ol' Hammerin' Hank over at Accuweather who rode his beloved GFS and its scrambly chaotic solutions until it caved to the more consistent Euro. Then he went off about how the Euro was all over the place and how the GFS had the best handle the whole time. Not the first time he's done whacko things like this. Makes me wonder what he's doing behind closed doors to remain employed...
ReplyDeleteConvection is erupting like crazy out in NW Missouri. The beast awakens...
ReplyDeleteThe radar is going to light up like a Christmas tree in the next 3 hrs. We FINALLY have something to watch other than old model runs and forecast discussions.
DeleteThe Weatherguy Troll is out again. I have no idea what he is talking about regarding blizzard warnings. I barely follow KW anyway. Since the storm is really starting to get it's act together, probably more accurate to look at radar trends and short term guidance?
ReplyDelete-Weatherguy
DBZ returns in NW MO are already up over 40dbz which means mdt rain... which would be very heavy snow if it was snow.
ReplyDeleteMike Seidel from The Weather Channel is heading here tonight to cover the storm. He'll be along the lakeshore.
ReplyDeleteHow cool is that. U know it is going to be bad when the weather channel comes to Rcohester
DeleteYou should invite him into your dutch oven tomorrow snowdog!
DeleteWinds in NW MO are already over 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. The storm has not even fully developed yet... Maybe we will see blizzard warnings by midnight tonight.
ReplyDeleteWho is staying here all night to cover this rapidly developing situation with me.
ReplyDeleteDon't know if I'll be here the whole time, but I'll definitely be sleeping very little.
DeleteI would like to watch it take shape all night but with 3am coming early and a VERY long day ahead tomorrow I am done around 10:30 or so.
DeleteI just lit my first dutch oven! I'll be burning the midnight taco grease with ya under my covies!
DeleteUnconfirmed but just read a few minutes ago: Travel Advisory for Monroe County beginning at 10am tomorrow. All county public schools will be closed.
ReplyDeleteCCCC I sent you a message on google plus
ReplyDeleteIt said. This is awesome.
DeleteHonestly I only have a Google Plus account so I can have a picture on this blog, but congratulations on being a part of my two-person acquaintance circle :P
DeleteI made it to the inner circle
DeleteBlizzard warning was just issued
ReplyDeleteAnd now it's official...a Blizzard Warning has just been issued for Monroe, Orleans, Genesee, Niagara, Wayne, northern Cayuga, Livingston, Ontario, Erie and Chautauqua Counties.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I was right!!
DeleteSlightly lower snow totals in this warning of 10-19 inches instead of 12-20 inches
ReplyDeleteThey have been fluctuating their amounts all day.
DeleteI am 35 years old and it is only the second blizzard warning ever issued before the storm was here during my life span. The super storm of 1993 was the other. March of 1999 blizzard was issued after the fact. Pretty cool!!
ReplyDeleteMike Sidel is here! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsLT4oCApAk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
ReplyDeleteI am 23 years old and have never been under a blizzard warning anywhere I have ever lived.
ReplyDeletehttp://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
ReplyDeletePrecipitation really breaking out
KW stated hours ago the blizzard warnings would be issues and everyone scoffed....HE IS MOST ACCURATE
ReplyDeleteWow guys this is really cool. I don't remember a blizzard warning since March 93 in this area, and that was a heck of a storm!
ReplyDeleteI've got to say nothing impressive on radar yet, and I'm not a model reader so I'll rely on experts like CCCC and HP etc.
Not staying up all night, but I'm sure I'll wake up a few times and be taking peaks out the window, the radar and this blog! Glad the storm will be strongest during day so we can watch.
Fortunately I can work from anywhere in the world and this time from the warmth of my home. Everyone else.. don't be stupid stay off the road unless you have a mission critical job.
Andy
I don't know about 1966, 1977 under forecasted NO warning, 1999 under forecasted NO warning. 1993 might be the only blizzard forecasted with this lead time. I am NOT I say NOT comparing this potential blizzard to 1993.
Delete"...so I'll rely on experts like CCCC and HP etc."
DeleteI ain't an expert dood -_-
It's all relative CCCC. I wouldn't know how to retrieve and read a model.
DeleteSure I can analyze climatology data and contribute to this blog... but that's just basic math and statistics for me. But model reading, you're an expert compared to me.
Andy
in the last few images of radar rain and snow has broke out from Chicago back to Kansas city. The storm is really ramping up.
ReplyDeleteI-90 to shut down at 7pm tomorrow with travel ban
ReplyDeleteThe imposter Snowdog strikes again.
ReplyDeleteyeah I knew it was the imposter when I cross checked the source.
DeleteThe troll isn't fooling anyone.
If we ignore him he'll leave. I was bullied enough as a nerdy teenager, don't need it now Lol
DeleteThe posts at 8:54 and 9:06 were not me! -Real Snowdog
ReplyDeleteFake Snowdog raises a good point though, the stretch of the Thruway from the state line out to Syracuse may very well shut down tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI don't see why it wouldn't shut down to be honest. Blizzard with zero visibility is a nightmare for motorists. I would come plow it if they need me though!
Delete^ A true Ford Tough!!!!
Delete-Andy
Well I think the most accurate prediction of the year goes to the guy forecasting "a blizzard in the flower city in the next 4 months" He saw this back in November! haha
ReplyDeleteHahaha! That was fantastic!
Deletejay
Marked Down
DeleteI think the sweltering prediction of the year goes to my dutch oven. I dare anyone to come inside!
DeleteThere will be a Blizzard in the Flower City shortly yes! Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt is freaking hilarious that you turned out to be correct.
DeleteYER A WIZARD HARRY
DeleteLOL....Great Call! what are the Lotto numbers?
DeleteDoug
Nobody is safe from the copycat blogger. I would never willing travel to I90 to plow. Way to man crazy motorists for my liking. I will admit I got a chuckle out of it though.
ReplyDeleteYou are a true FORD TOUGH!
DeleteI am a Chevy man, tough, maybe???
DeleteOkay now I am done.
Any HP blog after this one before 3am are not mine, time for some sleep.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know where Mike Seidel is going to be?
ReplyDeleteStaying warm inside your dutch oven
DeleteI'll be at the Dinosaur Barbeque and then heading to Abbots for a sundae.
ReplyDeleteSee you soon
Mike Seidel
Oz NAM just came out with still crazy numbers for us!
ReplyDeleteI don't believe this...the NAM keeps spitting out ridiculously high snowfall numbers. The SREFs also hold firm. I think this speaks more to the insanity of these particular models than anything, but their persistence is a bit alarming. They have been known to hang on to high numbers until the bitter end, but the longer this goes on the more it makes me wonder.
ReplyDeleteGlenn Johnson, who is pretty conservative said area wide 2ft.
ReplyDeleteCCCC, who is pretty skeptical, believes you are the serial blog imposter trying to spread misinformation.
Deleteme?
DeleteIve been around long time CCCC wayyyyy before you......
DeleteSorry, I couldn't help but be immensely accusatory after how much BS happened today with all of the impersonating. Guess I was wrong.
DeleteNo biggie
DeleteGJ channel 13 just said some areas 2' could be one of the historic 24hr storm. I take that as top 5. NAM looks good, BLIZZARD, tomorrow afternoon.
ReplyDeleteWho me?
ReplyDeleteChannel 13 who really did not get on this storm until late now is going wild. GJ said winds 45 to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon and showed a computer model with 22 inches by 11pm tomorrow night ha ha
ReplyDeleteKW is stating only 12-16 and they are holding at that amount and he also said Blizzard conditions may not happen. He is utterly confusing me.
ReplyDeleteI think he confuses himself....
DeleteSo maybe I was mistaken then...
ReplyDeleteholy mother of mercy O___o
How much snow was is the 00z NAM showing.
DeleteOver 2 feet across the entire region.
Delete27-30 inches
DeleteCCCC if the models keep printing the high amounts why would it be hard to believe?
ReplyDeleteBecause they've done this before only to end up way too high.
DeleteRemember you did not believe what you saw with that LP over the Catskills last week ha ha
DeleteYeah, this storm has gone against the grain this entire time. I suppose it wouldn't be too surprising to see it happen again.
DeleteRemember a week ago when the EURO "KING" had 30" of WNY. The storm is shaping up like that model showed it then.
ReplyDeleteGJ is talking like this will be an historic storm, will shut down Rochester.
ReplyDeleteGJ just said that this has the potential to shut down Rochester.
ReplyDeleteGJ just stated he thinks this is going to be a shut down type of storm.
ReplyDeleteScott latest on Blizzard warning would really be appreciated now, please.
ReplyDeleteWhat I saw from GJ is that he is sticking to the 12-20 inch call, but entertained the possibility of more than 20.
ReplyDeleteAnd he believes we'll be closer to the higher end of the range.
DeleteAnd the forecast graphic indicates "Very Winds."
Deletelol
It was earlier he talked about it having potential to shut down Rochester.
DeleteNow Scott states it is a quick mover. I get more confused as I read more Tweets. Glenn states he is forecasting closer to 2ft.
ReplyDeleteQuick mover but heavy hitter. Snowfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour can add up very quickly if they are the norm.
DeleteMarch of 1999 was a quick mover it all came down in about 6 hours.
DeleteThis AM they stated it was getting stronger and slowing down, now it is a quick hitter.
DeleteQuick "mover" not quick "hitter." This storm will be massive in size, so it'll take awhile to move completely through.
DeleteSo if we only get 12 is 'Name' gonna come on and call bust?
ReplyDeleteI know they will not do this but it would be nice if the issue a State of Emergency now so they close businesses so we do not all get stuck at work.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a good guy but do not put a lot of stock in GJ and his forecast they did not even mention storm until Monday. In fact MM said 3 or 4 inches Sunday.
ReplyDeleteKW:
ReplyDelete"NAM regional model came in much "wetter" suggesting higher snow tallies. Holding tight unless other models and trends suggest otherwise."
CCCC what is KW saying or means?
ReplyDeleteHe may have to adjust his forecast upward if other guidance trends towards the NAM.
DeleteOz GFS in about 30 mins is still worth looking at.
ReplyDeleteGFS won't be as accurate as NAM at this point IMO, but can still help show consistency.
ReplyDeleteIf the GFS shows an upward jump in QPF it will be telling IMO.
DeleteTrue, but NAM is "usually" better in the short term. GFS and EURO trump in medium. But as everyone knows, the NAM can notoriously overdo numbers...
DeleteJohn kucko posted a pic on twitter of Penfield wegmans out of bread. Really people you don't not have enough food in your house for a day or two at worst. Yes its a crazy amount of snow and conditions but we are not the south the roads will be clear by Thursday morning and life will go on.
ReplyDeleteOne of the big problems with storms like this (and Scott just mentioned this on TV in fact) is that the plows may not be able to keep up with the rate of snowfall combined with the wind. So we may very well not be all clear by Thursday morning, and some side streets may be left largely untouched for a day or so.
DeletePlus CCCC air temperatures like 5-8 Thursday morning. In fact Glen J. said wind chills will be minus 15 to 20 Thursday morning on his forecast can that be true because salt will be useless.
DeleteIts not jyst sslt tgat clears the road but a combination of sslt traffic and sun. You don't always need or use salt when it is that cold. As Scott stated the worst of it winds down late tomorrow most roads will be clear and passable by Thurs morning timeframe. You do not need black pavement to have safe roads. And when using salt at that temperature with addition to breaks of sun in the PM roads with decent amounts of traffic a will clear.
DeleteI am even more confused now. KW said the heavier snow will be in the Finger lakes- 16-20. I am going to bed.
ReplyDeleteHe has said this right along. Totally different than Scott's forecast. I'm confused
ReplyDeleteRemember I said this a few days ago tomorrow is the 21st anniversary of Superstorm 93. Perhaps the ghost of that storm returns.
ReplyDeleteNot a chance, that storm was much deeper and had much more widespread snow. A ghost of Part II of '99 might be in order though.
DeleteThe difference between Scott and KW is interesting. Scott has lighter totals south while KW has highest totals south?
ReplyDeleteThey are starting to close Colleges now. MCC, Roberts Weslyan, FLCC.
ReplyDeleteNWS discussion:
ReplyDelete"IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK."
Any word from the GFS?
ReplyDeleteNo important differences.
DeleteHow much snow did we get with that one?
ReplyDeleteAbout 19 inches.
DeleteOz GFS a tad weaker keeps us in 14-16 inch range.
ReplyDeleteIt initialized a few mb too weak as well.
DeleteWhat does that mean CCCC?
DeleteIt means the storm central pressure fed into the GFS wasn't low enough compared to observations.
DeleteWell not much to look at now until storm tomorrow. CCCC is Oz EURO useful at all now?
ReplyDeleteNot really.
DeleteWhich model is more reliable, NAM or GFS at this close range to the storm?
ReplyDeleteI pick neither ;)
DeleteWell, goodnight everyone. I hope this storm is a memorable one and we do not get disappointed.
ReplyDeleteSounds like it's time to go to bed. Then wake up. Sit back. Enjoy.
ReplyDeleteOr freak out about having to drive home in the evening.
I just had to listen to my roommate rant about how this storm is nothing but hype just because it's 44 degrees right now. Said he wouldn't be surprised if we got no snow at all. Usually he's pretty smart, but this was definitely one of his stupider moments -_-
ReplyDeleteI hope they start a new thread for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNo one realizes you have to click the link at the bottom of the page when we reach 200 comments.
I think the eventual changeover to all snow is going to hold off several hours longer than most forecasts indicate, but this isn't a big deal at all since only light amounts of QPF would be lost to rain. We would lose maybe a half inch of snow as a result.
ReplyDeleteNot real impressed with the precipitation shield on the radar? Plus it is moving fast and out of here quickly maybe 10 inches by 8 tonight and that is it.
ReplyDeleteOMG. Here we go. People coming on saying BUST. Relax. It is not supposed to get bad until later this AM
ReplyDeleteOne plus CCCC hinted at another storm early next week well there is nothing there now. That is good this is the grand finale then we move towards spring. Yes!
ReplyDeleteI also would not be shocked if many schools look to close again tomorrow and let parents know later today so they can make plans.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking we will not hear from HP until sometime Thursday.
ReplyDeletePlease John post a new update we only have 20 comments left. If you are seeing this but not seeing many more posts see if there is a SEE MORE post below the box that we comment in.
ReplyDeleteStill real differences with snow projections and where will get the most. John's numbers 10-15 lower and particularly south while RC at 10 has 16-20 inches with higher possibly south. Interesting with different computer models showing different totals.
ReplyDeleteThis thing is really cranking up to our west in Ohio. I think if we get the lake enhancement help areas north of thruway get at least 20 inches. Plus wind chill values tonight and tomorrow morning will be at least minus 10 degrees brutal!
ReplyDeleteAlso all the 6z runs, short range models moved a tad north which means the heavier snow moves a bit towards north of the thruway thus my thinking for those areas getting close to 20 inches.
ReplyDeleteUgh, I knew it, BUST!!! It's going to be all rain, I knew I should have listened to TWC
ReplyDeleteAnon 7:00 dumb comment and not needed.
ReplyDeleteReal quiet on here where is Snowdog,CCCC, Weatherguy, David, HP, farm?
ReplyDeleteLittle bit of lightning in Ohio. Wonder if we will get it?
ReplyDeleteAndy
Thunder snow a real possibility. Have you seen the radar? If that moisture coming up from the south combines with the one coming from Ohio then huge participation shield will form.
ReplyDeleteThere will be a blizzard in the flower city in the next several hours....mark it down!
ReplyDeleteTroll alert fake post about Blizzard stealing my thunder excuse the pun ha ha
DeleteI'm here. Kids let me sleep in a little which was nice as they are both home today as am i. My wife looked outside and said where is the snow? I told her it will be bad a little later. She is hoping to call in to work. Either way im not letting her drive to Newark at 11!. Even if she took my truck. I'm no weather expert more of a casual observer and level head. I say Mike diesel to live spot on twc around 7. If they r here it is going to be good.
ReplyDeleteSaw...siedel.
ReplyDeleteSorry, autocorrect on phone
It's funny how the national news isn't really mentioning the snow or blizzard. Just windy in the east.
ReplyDeleteIf this storm were 200 miles south, it would be the lead story.
multiple reports of thundersnow inToledo
ReplyDeleteCoating to half inch maybe now in farmington. Snow is picking up. I was hoping copy cat troll would recede back into his cave...if anyone posts with my name u will know its not me because I don't post a stupid things or innapropriate things etc. If anything sees out of character today ignore please. Its too bad cause I like many on here come on for more in depth info etc and these immature trolls are ruining it on a big storm day.
ReplyDeleteDo we have a time frame on the arrival? I am in Sodus and the snow is light at best. Come on...I love a good storm.
ReplyDeleteMdt snow here in Ontario. Roads are starting to become snow covered.
ReplyDeleteRemember to press more posts below.
ReplyDeleteOnly 200 comments load at a time.
Hopefully we'll get a new thread.
What the heck!!
ReplyDeleteSnow isn't up to the top of my garage!!
BUST BUST BUST ;-)
The Troll
Starting to pick up here in Hilton. Winds are getting very strong off the lake...
ReplyDelete