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Tuesday, March 11

STORM SHOULD BE ALL THAT YOU HOPED IT WOULD BE



Written By:  Scott Hetsko

If I wasn't living it, I'd find it hard to believe!  All the data continues to point at a real significant snow storm for Rochester tomorrow.  It will be really interesting to watch the temperatures drop between 6am and noon.  Heavy snow, combined with NNE wind gusts near 35 mph will cause widespread blowing and drifting of snow.

14 to 18" of snow with lake help looks likely although a few town will probably reach 20" by early Thursday.  This will be the exception, not the rule.  There's little doubt in my mind that this one will end up being the biggest snow storm for the area of the season.  What a way to wrap up the worst Winter in at least 10 years!

Have fun and more importantly, BE SAFE!

284 comments:

  1. Interesting Ch 10's map just showed 16"plus south of Rochester. Totally different from what Scott is saying in that the heaviest accumulations will be over the Rochester.
    Doug

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  2. I think it's nit picking at this point.

    Time to sit back and enjoy.

    Or curse.

    ReplyDelete
  3. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140311&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ROC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=42.904676850756566&mLON=-77.51035178893316&mTYP=roadmap


    snowfall computer models

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So according to that local forecasts are still at the low end of the range. Am I reading that correctly.

      Delete
    2. That particular guidance suite is always too high with snowfall amounts. As a rule of thumb, scale it down by two thirds to get something more reasonable. And make sure to discount the outlier-ish looking members.

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    3. Yeah but still that puts us around 2 ft

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    4. Is that a mean of 25 inches?

      That's a lot right. How much would we really get?

      Delete
    5. Taking only the members in the 20-30 inch range and scaling them by two thirds would yield a 14-20 inch range. That still might be a bit high, but not terribly unreasonable.

      Delete
  4. I am excited and nervous at the same time about this storm. Driving a 10-wheeler with 17' of plow and wing in front of you during ZERO visibility is VERY challenging to say the least. If things come together as they appear they are going to this will be as close to a blizzard as you can get without actually calling it a blizzard. I know it doesn't mater if it is 6' or 20" with that type of wind, visibility will be TRUELY ZERO in open areas.

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  5. As long as OBS report 3 or more consecutive hours of 35+ mph gusts we can call it a blizzard, regardless of headlines. The fact that the thumb of Lower Michigan currently has a Wind Advisory despite being well north of the storm track might be a bit telling in regards to future headlines here.

    Airport temp is beginning to crash, down 6 degrees over the past hour.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was VERY windy in Hamlin during the first lake enhanced storm this season that dropped over a foot. That storm was NOT EVEN CLOSE to as intense as this LP is going to be. Winds could make travel IMPOSSIBLE tomorrow evening in northern towns.

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    2. Absolutely, I don't envy anyone who has to traverse the roads up there. People might get stranded if they try.

      Delete
  6. I think the NWS will be smart and will issue blizzard warnings sometime during the overnight tonight. Snowfall will be 18-24 inches by thursday morning with isolated 26 inch totals.

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  7. Agree Charles. And I actually believe they will once the storm begins taking form.

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  8. And have any of you heard of a Severe Blizzard Warning!? Gusts 45 mph+ and temperatures below 10 degrees... Found it on wikipedia!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Too bad we don't have those anymore because the temperature component no longer factors into the definition of a "blizzard."

      Delete
  9. Ive heard of Severe Hard Nipple warning....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. holy lol

      also agree, could slice through a diamond with these puppies right now...

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    2. This kind of forecast causes that condition.

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    3. Hahahaha Im going to issue a Vaseline advisory

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    4. Dutch Oven Warning??

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  10. 100 inch debate.

    Over.

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    Replies
    1. Watch as our storm total comes in at 13.5 inches and brings our final seasonal total to 99.9 inches.

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    2. Snowdog would never let us hear the end of it.

      Delete
  11. Guess driving from Boston to Rochester isn't happening tomorrow! So is it Albany where I stop or Utica?

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    Replies
    1. How early are you willing to hit the road?

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    2. If you leave early enough in the morning I imagine you could get yourself far enough east to avoid any major complications on your trip. Things aren't supposed to get too bad until later in the morning.

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    3. Cannot leave until noon and with the Blizzard warning I have no choice now.

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  12. So I decided to come home a day early. Thankfully. When we got to the airport they had already canceled our original flight for tomorrow. More than 24 hours in advance. So thanks to all of you because its your predictions that convinced me to cut short our trip to Disney by a day!! You guys are awesome!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I never thought I'd see the day where we were thanked for shortening someone's vacation...but hey no problem :D

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  13. KW said blizzard warnings are expected to be issued in the early morning hours

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    Replies
    1. Did he receive that as a message from the NWS or is it just his own personal expectation?

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    2. I'm assuming he has heard that info from NWS

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  14. FYI, my husband works for DOT and he said they are already discussing plans to shut down I-90 tomorrow evening and travel bans will also likely be issued.

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  15. We have to give credit to KW on this one. He called it last week and said that the models would line up with the EURO.

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    Replies
    1. Naturally, there's a reason we have the moniker "King Euro." It latched onto the storm scenario early and never yielded.

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    2. Snowdog will you be in your dutch oven tomorrow?

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    3. you bet'cha! my skivies will be colored brown! Eating burritos tonight too

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  16. If this storm pans out I don't see why we wouldn't go past 100 for the year. I'm sure this isn't the last inch of snow that is coming. I've already resigned myself to the sad fact I won't see a blade of grass until well into April.

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  17. Check out the radar the storm is just starting to take shape. Look at the precipitation blossoming in NW Missouri.

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  18. When was the last Blizzard Warning issued in Rochester?

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    Replies
    1. Does anyone recall how deep the pressure dropped with the 1999 blizzard as it crossed eastern NY.

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    2. NARR reanalysis shows that it dipped to below 988mb:

      http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0304.php

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  19. And then we have ol' Hammerin' Hank over at Accuweather who rode his beloved GFS and its scrambly chaotic solutions until it caved to the more consistent Euro. Then he went off about how the Euro was all over the place and how the GFS had the best handle the whole time. Not the first time he's done whacko things like this. Makes me wonder what he's doing behind closed doors to remain employed...

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  20. Convection is erupting like crazy out in NW Missouri. The beast awakens...

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    Replies
    1. The radar is going to light up like a Christmas tree in the next 3 hrs. We FINALLY have something to watch other than old model runs and forecast discussions.

      Delete
  21. The Real WeatherguyMarch 11, 2014 at 8:07 PM

    The Weatherguy Troll is out again. I have no idea what he is talking about regarding blizzard warnings. I barely follow KW anyway. Since the storm is really starting to get it's act together, probably more accurate to look at radar trends and short term guidance?

    -Weatherguy

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  22. DBZ returns in NW MO are already up over 40dbz which means mdt rain... which would be very heavy snow if it was snow.

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  23. Mike Seidel from The Weather Channel is heading here tonight to cover the storm. He'll be along the lakeshore.

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    Replies
    1. How cool is that. U know it is going to be bad when the weather channel comes to Rcohester

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    2. You should invite him into your dutch oven tomorrow snowdog!

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  24. Winds in NW MO are already over 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. The storm has not even fully developed yet... Maybe we will see blizzard warnings by midnight tonight.

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  25. Who is staying here all night to cover this rapidly developing situation with me.

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    Replies
    1. Don't know if I'll be here the whole time, but I'll definitely be sleeping very little.

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    2. I would like to watch it take shape all night but with 3am coming early and a VERY long day ahead tomorrow I am done around 10:30 or so.

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    3. I just lit my first dutch oven! I'll be burning the midnight taco grease with ya under my covies!

      Delete
  26. Unconfirmed but just read a few minutes ago: Travel Advisory for Monroe County beginning at 10am tomorrow. All county public schools will be closed.

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  27. CCCC I sent you a message on google plus

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    Replies
    1. It said. This is awesome.

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    2. Honestly I only have a Google Plus account so I can have a picture on this blog, but congratulations on being a part of my two-person acquaintance circle :P

      Delete
  28. And now it's official...a Blizzard Warning has just been issued for Monroe, Orleans, Genesee, Niagara, Wayne, northern Cayuga, Livingston, Ontario, Erie and Chautauqua Counties.

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    Replies
    1. Looks like I was right!!

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  29. Slightly lower snow totals in this warning of 10-19 inches instead of 12-20 inches

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    Replies
    1. They have been fluctuating their amounts all day.

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  30. I am 35 years old and it is only the second blizzard warning ever issued before the storm was here during my life span. The super storm of 1993 was the other. March of 1999 blizzard was issued after the fact. Pretty cool!!

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  31. Mike Sidel is here! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsLT4oCApAk&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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  32. I am 23 years old and have never been under a blizzard warning anywhere I have ever lived.

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  33. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

    Precipitation really breaking out

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  34. KW stated hours ago the blizzard warnings would be issues and everyone scoffed....HE IS MOST ACCURATE

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  35. Wow guys this is really cool. I don't remember a blizzard warning since March 93 in this area, and that was a heck of a storm!

    I've got to say nothing impressive on radar yet, and I'm not a model reader so I'll rely on experts like CCCC and HP etc.

    Not staying up all night, but I'm sure I'll wake up a few times and be taking peaks out the window, the radar and this blog! Glad the storm will be strongest during day so we can watch.

    Fortunately I can work from anywhere in the world and this time from the warmth of my home. Everyone else.. don't be stupid stay off the road unless you have a mission critical job.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. I don't know about 1966, 1977 under forecasted NO warning, 1999 under forecasted NO warning. 1993 might be the only blizzard forecasted with this lead time. I am NOT I say NOT comparing this potential blizzard to 1993.

      Delete
    2. "...so I'll rely on experts like CCCC and HP etc."

      I ain't an expert dood -_-

      Delete
    3. It's all relative CCCC. I wouldn't know how to retrieve and read a model.
      Sure I can analyze climatology data and contribute to this blog... but that's just basic math and statistics for me. But model reading, you're an expert compared to me.

      Andy

      Delete
  36. in the last few images of radar rain and snow has broke out from Chicago back to Kansas city. The storm is really ramping up.

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  37. I-90 to shut down at 7pm tomorrow with travel ban

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  38. The imposter Snowdog strikes again.

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    Replies
    1. yeah I knew it was the imposter when I cross checked the source.

      The troll isn't fooling anyone.

      Delete
    2. If we ignore him he'll leave. I was bullied enough as a nerdy teenager, don't need it now Lol

      Delete
  39. The posts at 8:54 and 9:06 were not me! -Real Snowdog

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  40. Fake Snowdog raises a good point though, the stretch of the Thruway from the state line out to Syracuse may very well shut down tomorrow.

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    Replies
    1. I don't see why it wouldn't shut down to be honest. Blizzard with zero visibility is a nightmare for motorists. I would come plow it if they need me though!

      Delete
    2. ^ A true Ford Tough!!!!

      -Andy

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  41. Well I think the most accurate prediction of the year goes to the guy forecasting "a blizzard in the flower city in the next 4 months" He saw this back in November! haha

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    Replies
    1. Hahaha! That was fantastic!

      jay

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    2. Marked Down

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    3. I think the sweltering prediction of the year goes to my dutch oven. I dare anyone to come inside!

      Delete
  42. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City shortly yes! Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 11, 2014 at 9:42 PM

      It is freaking hilarious that you turned out to be correct.

      Delete
    2. LOL....Great Call! what are the Lotto numbers?
      Doug

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  43. Nobody is safe from the copycat blogger. I would never willing travel to I90 to plow. Way to man crazy motorists for my liking. I will admit I got a chuckle out of it though.

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    Replies
    1. You are a true FORD TOUGH!

      Delete
    2. I am a Chevy man, tough, maybe???

      Okay now I am done.

      Delete
  44. Any HP blog after this one before 3am are not mine, time for some sleep.

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  45. Does anyone know where Mike Seidel is going to be?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Staying warm inside your dutch oven

      Delete
  46. I'll be at the Dinosaur Barbeque and then heading to Abbots for a sundae.
    See you soon
    Mike Seidel

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  47. Oz NAM just came out with still crazy numbers for us!

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  48. I don't believe this...the NAM keeps spitting out ridiculously high snowfall numbers. The SREFs also hold firm. I think this speaks more to the insanity of these particular models than anything, but their persistence is a bit alarming. They have been known to hang on to high numbers until the bitter end, but the longer this goes on the more it makes me wonder.

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  49. Glenn Johnson, who is pretty conservative said area wide 2ft.

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    Replies
    1. CCCC, who is pretty skeptical, believes you are the serial blog imposter trying to spread misinformation.

      Delete
    2. Ive been around long time CCCC wayyyyy before you......

      Delete
    3. Sorry, I couldn't help but be immensely accusatory after how much BS happened today with all of the impersonating. Guess I was wrong.

      Delete
  50. GJ channel 13 just said some areas 2' could be one of the historic 24hr storm. I take that as top 5. NAM looks good, BLIZZARD, tomorrow afternoon.

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  51. Channel 13 who really did not get on this storm until late now is going wild. GJ said winds 45 to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon and showed a computer model with 22 inches by 11pm tomorrow night ha ha

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  52. KW is stating only 12-16 and they are holding at that amount and he also said Blizzard conditions may not happen. He is utterly confusing me.

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    Replies
    1. I think he confuses himself....

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  53. So maybe I was mistaken then...

    holy mother of mercy O___o

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    Replies
    1. How much snow was is the 00z NAM showing.

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  54. CCCC if the models keep printing the high amounts why would it be hard to believe?

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    Replies
    1. Because they've done this before only to end up way too high.

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    2. Remember you did not believe what you saw with that LP over the Catskills last week ha ha

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    3. Yeah, this storm has gone against the grain this entire time. I suppose it wouldn't be too surprising to see it happen again.

      Delete
  55. Remember a week ago when the EURO "KING" had 30" of WNY. The storm is shaping up like that model showed it then.

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  56. GJ is talking like this will be an historic storm, will shut down Rochester.

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  57. GJ just said that this has the potential to shut down Rochester.

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  58. GJ just stated he thinks this is going to be a shut down type of storm.

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  59. Scott latest on Blizzard warning would really be appreciated now, please.

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  60. What I saw from GJ is that he is sticking to the 12-20 inch call, but entertained the possibility of more than 20.

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    Replies
    1. And he believes we'll be closer to the higher end of the range.

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    2. And the forecast graphic indicates "Very Winds."

      lol

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    3. It was earlier he talked about it having potential to shut down Rochester.

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  61. Now Scott states it is a quick mover. I get more confused as I read more Tweets. Glenn states he is forecasting closer to 2ft.

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    Replies
    1. Quick mover but heavy hitter. Snowfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour can add up very quickly if they are the norm.

      Delete
    2. March of 1999 was a quick mover it all came down in about 6 hours.

      Delete
    3. This AM they stated it was getting stronger and slowing down, now it is a quick hitter.

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    4. Quick "mover" not quick "hitter." This storm will be massive in size, so it'll take awhile to move completely through.

      Delete
  62. So if we only get 12 is 'Name' gonna come on and call bust?

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  63. I know they will not do this but it would be nice if the issue a State of Emergency now so they close businesses so we do not all get stuck at work.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Seems like a good guy but do not put a lot of stock in GJ and his forecast they did not even mention storm until Monday. In fact MM said 3 or 4 inches Sunday.

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  65. KW:

    "NAM regional model came in much "wetter" suggesting higher snow tallies. Holding tight unless other models and trends suggest otherwise."

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  66. CCCC what is KW saying or means?

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    Replies
    1. He may have to adjust his forecast upward if other guidance trends towards the NAM.

      Delete
  67. Oz GFS in about 30 mins is still worth looking at.

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  68. GFS won't be as accurate as NAM at this point IMO, but can still help show consistency.

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    Replies
    1. If the GFS shows an upward jump in QPF it will be telling IMO.

      Delete
    2. True, but NAM is "usually" better in the short term. GFS and EURO trump in medium. But as everyone knows, the NAM can notoriously overdo numbers...

      Delete
  69. John kucko posted a pic on twitter of Penfield wegmans out of bread. Really people you don't not have enough food in your house for a day or two at worst. Yes its a crazy amount of snow and conditions but we are not the south the roads will be clear by Thursday morning and life will go on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One of the big problems with storms like this (and Scott just mentioned this on TV in fact) is that the plows may not be able to keep up with the rate of snowfall combined with the wind. So we may very well not be all clear by Thursday morning, and some side streets may be left largely untouched for a day or so.

      Delete
    2. Plus CCCC air temperatures like 5-8 Thursday morning. In fact Glen J. said wind chills will be minus 15 to 20 Thursday morning on his forecast can that be true because salt will be useless.

      Delete
    3. Its not jyst sslt tgat clears the road but a combination of sslt traffic and sun. You don't always need or use salt when it is that cold. As Scott stated the worst of it winds down late tomorrow most roads will be clear and passable by Thurs morning timeframe. You do not need black pavement to have safe roads. And when using salt at that temperature with addition to breaks of sun in the PM roads with decent amounts of traffic a will clear.

      Delete
  70. I am even more confused now. KW said the heavier snow will be in the Finger lakes- 16-20. I am going to bed.

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  71. He has said this right along. Totally different than Scott's forecast. I'm confused

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  72. Remember I said this a few days ago tomorrow is the 21st anniversary of Superstorm 93. Perhaps the ghost of that storm returns.

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    Replies
    1. Not a chance, that storm was much deeper and had much more widespread snow. A ghost of Part II of '99 might be in order though.

      Delete
  73. The difference between Scott and KW is interesting. Scott has lighter totals south while KW has highest totals south?

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  74. They are starting to close Colleges now. MCC, Roberts Weslyan, FLCC.

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  75. NWS discussion:

    "IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK."

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  76. Any word from the GFS?

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  77. How much snow did we get with that one?

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  78. Oz GFS a tad weaker keeps us in 14-16 inch range.

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    Replies
    1. It initialized a few mb too weak as well.

      Delete
    2. What does that mean CCCC?

      Delete
    3. It means the storm central pressure fed into the GFS wasn't low enough compared to observations.

      Delete
  79. Well not much to look at now until storm tomorrow. CCCC is Oz EURO useful at all now?

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  80. Which model is more reliable, NAM or GFS at this close range to the storm?

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  81. Well, goodnight everyone. I hope this storm is a memorable one and we do not get disappointed.

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  82. Sounds like it's time to go to bed. Then wake up. Sit back. Enjoy.

    Or freak out about having to drive home in the evening.

    ReplyDelete
  83. I just had to listen to my roommate rant about how this storm is nothing but hype just because it's 44 degrees right now. Said he wouldn't be surprised if we got no snow at all. Usually he's pretty smart, but this was definitely one of his stupider moments -_-

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  84. I hope they start a new thread for tomorrow.
    No one realizes you have to click the link at the bottom of the page when we reach 200 comments.

    ReplyDelete
  85. I think the eventual changeover to all snow is going to hold off several hours longer than most forecasts indicate, but this isn't a big deal at all since only light amounts of QPF would be lost to rain. We would lose maybe a half inch of snow as a result.

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  86. Not real impressed with the precipitation shield on the radar? Plus it is moving fast and out of here quickly maybe 10 inches by 8 tonight and that is it.

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  87. OMG. Here we go. People coming on saying BUST. Relax. It is not supposed to get bad until later this AM

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  88. One plus CCCC hinted at another storm early next week well there is nothing there now. That is good this is the grand finale then we move towards spring. Yes!

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  89. I also would not be shocked if many schools look to close again tomorrow and let parents know later today so they can make plans.

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  90. I'm thinking we will not hear from HP until sometime Thursday.

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  91. Please John post a new update we only have 20 comments left. If you are seeing this but not seeing many more posts see if there is a SEE MORE post below the box that we comment in.

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  92. Still real differences with snow projections and where will get the most. John's numbers 10-15 lower and particularly south while RC at 10 has 16-20 inches with higher possibly south. Interesting with different computer models showing different totals.

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  93. This thing is really cranking up to our west in Ohio. I think if we get the lake enhancement help areas north of thruway get at least 20 inches. Plus wind chill values tonight and tomorrow morning will be at least minus 10 degrees brutal!

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  94. Also all the 6z runs, short range models moved a tad north which means the heavier snow moves a bit towards north of the thruway thus my thinking for those areas getting close to 20 inches.

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  95. Ugh, I knew it, BUST!!! It's going to be all rain, I knew I should have listened to TWC

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  96. Anon 7:00 dumb comment and not needed.

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  97. Real quiet on here where is Snowdog,CCCC, Weatherguy, David, HP, farm?

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  98. Little bit of lightning in Ohio. Wonder if we will get it?

    Andy

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  99. Thunder snow a real possibility. Have you seen the radar? If that moisture coming up from the south combines with the one coming from Ohio then huge participation shield will form.

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  100. There will be a blizzard in the flower city in the next several hours....mark it down!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Troll alert fake post about Blizzard stealing my thunder excuse the pun ha ha

      Delete
  101. I'm here. Kids let me sleep in a little which was nice as they are both home today as am i. My wife looked outside and said where is the snow? I told her it will be bad a little later. She is hoping to call in to work. Either way im not letting her drive to Newark at 11!. Even if she took my truck. I'm no weather expert more of a casual observer and level head. I say Mike diesel to live spot on twc around 7. If they r here it is going to be good.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Saw...siedel.

    Sorry, autocorrect on phone

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  103. It's funny how the national news isn't really mentioning the snow or blizzard. Just windy in the east.

    If this storm were 200 miles south, it would be the lead story.

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  104. multiple reports of thundersnow inToledo

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  105. Coating to half inch maybe now in farmington. Snow is picking up. I was hoping copy cat troll would recede back into his cave...if anyone posts with my name u will know its not me because I don't post a stupid things or innapropriate things etc. If anything sees out of character today ignore please. Its too bad cause I like many on here come on for more in depth info etc and these immature trolls are ruining it on a big storm day.

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  106. Do we have a time frame on the arrival? I am in Sodus and the snow is light at best. Come on...I love a good storm.

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  107. Mdt snow here in Ontario. Roads are starting to become snow covered.

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  108. Remember to press more posts below.

    Only 200 comments load at a time.

    Hopefully we'll get a new thread.

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  109. What the heck!!
    Snow isn't up to the top of my garage!!
    BUST BUST BUST ;-)

    The Troll

    ReplyDelete
  110. Starting to pick up here in Hilton. Winds are getting very strong off the lake...

    ReplyDelete

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