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Sunday, March 30

Winter's Last Hurrah?: Recap

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Welp, it wasn't a total bust, but it wasn't a slam dunk forecast, either. In the end, the snow definitely won out (for most everybody). "Official" NWS spotter reports just came out, and totals ranged anywhere from 3-4" to 10".  That deformation zone set up perfectly over WNY, especially from Monroe County west, and pivoted over the area from late evening through the early morning hours giving us a several hours of heavy snow. I can tell you, I was driving home in it! Nearly everybody saw that nasty sleet/freezing rain before the snow, giving the roads a layer of slop under the cement-like snow. Today? Not so fun to shove out from this! Keep this in mind - had this been a "cold" snow - about 5-10° colder, we would have easily doubled our totals, and it probably woud have been a slam dunk forecast. 

So, are even all you snow lovers out there saying "uncle" this morning? I have to admit, I'm more of a summer-weather fanatic, but I've absolutely loved this good old fashioned winter!

95 comments:

  1. Sorry ball dropped on this by NWS and most of our local mets. All you had to do was see the NAM had us in the sweet spot as it did with the Blizzard. Now again as with the Blizzard the numbers were way high but you could cut in half and know we were getting 6-10 inches at least. Same with several short term mesoscale models. To make this an advisory and nor warning shows people were not on top of it because they thought winter was over. Heck go back and look at my posts kept say this has a huge precipitation wall and they are under playing this maybe I can get a job?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You you'd need to give your name for a job. This could have gone either way 8 or 9 isn't a complete bust with a forecast of 3-6 imo with this storm. The forecast was stated as very challenging with p-type and lots of moisture. April sun. Time of onset sensitive.

      Even the model man himself, CCCC, was very hesitant to give a number with such a marginal late season set up.

      I personally think you're being way too hard on the mets there Nostradamus.

      Delete
    2. Talk about a suck up^ They were dead wrong , they need to come out and admit it. Not sure how you can get " Rochester's most accurate forecast" when your consistently wrong.

      Delete
    3. Above is not the real Snowdog. I would never say what this person said. The channel 8 team is accurate. Channel 8 please do not listen to the above imposter. You all do a great job.

      Delete
    4. really? do you have some sort of deal with them were your obligated to say all positive things about them because they were NOT accurate on this at all , saying 3-6 metro ROC , when in fact it ended being in 6-10'' range. WHEC 10 was right on from the beginning , time to take some notes News 8!

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    5. WHEC didn't have accurate numbers until the storm was already underway. No one had accurate numbers actually, except for TWC before they lowered them.

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    6. No , sorry to inform you they had 6-10 BEFORE the storm had actually gotten underway. Better check your facts before you throw stuff out left and right.

      Delete
    7. I distinctly recall JN making some "tweaks" to the forecast as the storm was happening. In fact, here is the progression of his forecasted numbers:

      http://twitpic.com/dzr9wr
      http://twitpic.com/dzrj7g
      http://twitpic.com/dzrq5s

      The first one was posted as the storm was on our doorstep, while the other two were made during the storm. If you've paid attention to my posts here over the past few months you'd know that I don't just throw stuff out there if there isn't any truth to it. And the truth here is that every forecast, every single one, was underdone for the lower elevations.

      Delete
  2. The way you type, you could not get a job at McDonalds.

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  3. I see this morning you've stopped trying to predict more than three days out. John

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  4. Anyone know how much water equivalent we received? That was like shoveling buckets of water.

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  5. Lets not call it a last hurrah just yet. Keep your attention around the April 8th time frame. You never know may be another shot of colder air around the 5th.

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  6. Can I come over and use your hot tub?

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  7. Channel News 8 is already calling next weekends storm SuperStorm potential , lets all hope we can knock winter out with a bang! Mark my word we're going to end this winter with a huge storm!

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  8. I'm guessing that wasnt the real snowdog ?

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  9. Again I am sure this is not the real Snowdog so please stop it is old. There is no storm next week let alone anyone on News 8 even stating that so again please stop. If so please cite your source. I will say this both 8 and 10 are by far the best when it comes to the weather. I have followed the all storms the whole winter before, during and after. I would say that News 10 has been on top of the storms earlier when calling them. KW has been on top of his game while Scott much better last winter. But both are great where KW also has an advantage is when he is off and has JN and RC in for him. They have much more experience than what the other stations have. Long and short of it we have excellent weather people in a tough place to predict winter weather. I have a bigger issue with the NWS because unless your are in the big cities forget about it!

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  10. I've lost track. How many 6"+ storms at the airport this year? I think the usual is about 4?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We had one in November, one in December, one in January, one in February and two in March for a total of 6. The average is indeed 4. We also had three storms that produced 10"+ which is far above the usual one every few years.

      Delete
  11. There may be a storm system tracking through the Great Lakes next week, but it shouldn't be anything beyond a typical spring storm.

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    Replies
    1. Keep an eye on April 8th

      Delete
    2. Could this be the Historic Ice Storm that the one blogger keep posting about to hit the Flower City. Why not throw that in too with the 6 Winter Storms we had this season. Now who thought breaking that 110+ inches of snow mark was unrealistic -- we could reach 115+ inches. Still won't beat Middlebury's mark of 220+ inches of snow.

      Delete
    3. WPC on next week's system:

      "LATER IN THE FORECAST, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TAP A GREAT DEAL OF GULF MOISTURE. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS WARMER, WITH LESS SNOW BUT FAR MORE RAIN."

      In other words, it's going to be very difficult to get any wintry precip of substance out of that storm.

      Delete
    4. There will be a HIS in the Flower City within the next 2 weeks. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Delete
    5. Somehow it will manage to get wintry precip in Rachacha-- the weather pit of the USA. Man this place sucks.
      Thank god, leaving soon. You nuts can have this frozen swamp.

      Delete
    6. At least the worst of our winter weather is intermittent most seasons. Try living in the Deep South during May through September, where the barrage of oppressive heat and humidity is nearly relentless in a normal year.

      Delete
    7. Well miss Sunshine you don't have to shovel heat and humidity. I'll take heat to this unrelenting garbage any day.
      You'll be shoveling well into May this year. Enjoy the "fun".

      Delete
    8. It's MISTER Sunshine thank you very much. And I'm just saying, it could be worse depending on who you are. I know plenty of people who prefer repeatedly shoveling nuisance snows over sweating to death every day for 5 months, but that's just a matter of personal preference.

      "You'll be shoveling well into May this year."

      Exaggeration much? Also I live in an apartment so I don't have to shovel. One day I will know the feeling...

      Delete
  12. Whew , finally a break from the snow. hopefully this is the last snow of the year not sure I can stand any longer ripping people off. There was way too many idiots on the road last night , If you can't manage to go 60 get outta my way! I got driveways to plow.

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    Replies
    1. Seriously with the roads the way they were; you truly expected drivers to go 60+ mph. Wonder if they did and got into an accident -- would you stop or contrinue on your way. In an earlier post you talked about ripping your customers off with plowing, and now you can't wait to get more dollars in your pocket. Must be your are part of the 1%.

      Delete
    2. I don't think that original post was the real HP.
      Ray

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    3. No it wasn't. He doesn't plow driveways. Anyone who paid attention to this blog would know that.

      Delete
  13. If you guys get a chance, check out the radar returns near Binghamton... Crazy mesoscale band set up!

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  14. Have to admit it looks like a winter wonder land on Sunday morning with all of the snow on the trees, etc. Love Winter, and truly hoping for one last winter storm before we say hello summer.

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  15. This March will go down as the snowiest since 2001, as well as the snowiest month of the winter season.

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  16. And for those who consistently complained this Winter season of "being observers once again" or "missing out on the big one"; should be happy to read this. But then again, there is never too much snow.

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  17. As a snow lover, I liked the winter. However for this snow lover, it loses its appeal exponentially past mid-march. I enjoyed Saturdays snow, but now I hope we're done.

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  18. KW keeps talking about how he thinks winter and snow are not done. He keeps alluding to next week..........

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  19. Yeah, i heard that too. Well, if it snow in April that will be 7 straight months of at least a trace of snow. It all started in October.

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  20. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 31, 2014 at 8:24 PM

    In Penfield, we received about 10". In eastern Wayne County, they got almost nothing.

    ReplyDelete
  21. From the NWS this morning concerning an upcoming storm system early next week.....
    IT IS WORTH NOTING THOUGH THAT THIS
    STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN...OR
    EVEN A SIMILAR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LIKE THAT FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND.
    STAY TUNED.

    ReplyDelete
  22. We passed the 110+ inche mark for snow fall. We are on the way to 115+ inches, as some of the local weather folks has implied that "we are not done with seeing snow yet". Plus folks keep indicating to watch for the weekend and next week -- possible more wet snow.

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  23. Keep an eye to one week from today, Just saying!! There will a HIS in the Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Apparently the blame for this brutal winter can be placed squarely on RIT's broken weather machine. Sorry about that everyone :\

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  25. This isn't really weather related, but it is relevant and I feel extremely compelled to speak my mind about it. I spend some time reading Don Paul's blog along with this one, and I must say that despite the occasional trolling and relative lack of actual moderation here this place is much more tolerable than that one. Example: while we were having a jolly time of it before and (for the most part) during the blizzard, they were busy bickering about each others' personal weather preferences. This wasn't isolated to just that storm either, it's been happening every single day multiple times per day. They've seen a recent influx of people who seem to believe that the mere presence of an opposing viewpoint is somehow a threat to their own opinions, and those particular people seem to take pleasure in repeatedly mentioning how active weather can cost money and how the majority of people favor calm weather. It's as if they're trying to cope with the inevitable weather situation by making the other side feel guilty about their preferences. They also accuse the other side of cherrypicking and spinning while simultaneously perpetrating that very thing themselves. To be fair some of the rebuttals they get are nothing short of petulant, but they also aren't terribly frequent especially now that one of the main offenders in that regard basically rage-quit a while ago. I'm awfully glad those attitudes aren't prevalent here because they're just incredibly obnoxious, and as a result of them several of that blog's former regulars who I used to enjoy seeing contributions from have left there for good. Besides, at least our trolls are funny sometimes. So congratulations, News 8 Weather Blog, on being not the worst place to have discussions about weather and stuff :)

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    Replies
    1. That was nice. CCCC, what is your take on this talk about flooding rain this Friday, and the possibility of another heavy wet snow event for next week?

      Delete
  26. According to Scott -- 4/8 snow will return and to keep an eye on it. Could bel like Saturday night into Sunday. So the blogger who posted keep an eye on April 8th, you appear to be correct. We might get that April Winter Storm yet.

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    Replies
    1. When did Scott say this?

      Delete
  27. There is no mention whatsoever of any notable ice, so that person is only partially onto something.

    There is a rather strong signal developing for a storm system in the eastern U.S. around the 8th or so, with the majority of ensemble members showing such a thing. The usual potpourri of model solutions ranging from a westerly track to an offshore one exists, but the trend is towards a storm impacting at least parts of the East as the pattern amplifies. Before then we do have a good deal of rain to contend with on Thursday and Friday. The NWS doesn't seem to think it'll be much of a flood concern, but the ground is so saturated currently that even a moderate amount of rain could be problematic in some spots.

    ReplyDelete
  28. For the potential on April 8th; lets hope that the local weather folks do a better job this time around than they did over the weekend. Can't imagine a work day having to deal with the amount of shoveling and the difficult travel on the roads that occurred that many delt with Saturday night and Sunday morning. Found it to be funny that many of the bloggers on Saturday morning were saying no big deal, any snow which falls will melt away come Sunday. The snow piles are still here and slowing melting.

    Anyways when was the last time we could all day that we have had 7-months, yes 7-months of snow, cold, wind, etc (October through April). For those who LOVE Winter, hope that you guys truly enjoyed this one. But then again with global warming, etc. - this might be the norm going forward. One never knows.

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  29. Not seeing the possible storm next week many are mentioning. Upper New England. WNY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2014040112/USA_PRMSL_msl_168.gif
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014040118/USA_PRMSL_msl_168.gif
      http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

      Delete
  30. CCCC can not see those and I am not being negative just can not see it. Could you explain what they are showing as it pertains to a possible storm in WNY next week?

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    Replies
    1. Three operational models showing a vigorous low pressure system very close by.

      No one is going to be able to view those first two links BTW, apparently they can't be hotlinked so nobody should waste their time with them.

      Delete
  31. Whoa now I am nervous you say vigorous and close by and looks like 3 legitimate models? But being it is April 8th time frame can there be enough cold air for a lot of snow in lower elevations?

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    Replies
    1. Depends on the timing and track of the storm. If it tracks far enough south and occurs largely at night we would get more snow.

      Delete
  32. Saw KW on his 5:30 report and he said rain next Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Don't know about others; but I am getting just a little bit tired of still seeing snow on the ground in April, and with a potential winter storm for next week. That will make 7-months of Winter, no Spring, and probably a short Summer -- then back to Winter. UGH!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I look at it another way. Early-mid March is almost always more like winter and the latter half is generally cloudy, sloppy, wet and muddy, usually lasting well into April. Good consistent weather doesn't usually start till later April/early May.

      So, if we can get our March precip in the form of snow instead of rain, I'm fine with that, so long as it's a substitution of snow instead of rain. We've also had 3 sunny days in a row which is pretty rare for this time of year, so all in all not too bad of week so far.

      Be realistic also-- April averages close to 4" of snow.

      Andy

      Delete
  34. Good news storm idea gone if anything the whole coast looking at a soaking rain.

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    Replies
    1. The storm idea is quite clearly not gone. The big question right now is the form(s) of precipitation we can expect.

      Delete
  35. NWS has already put up a HWO highlighting the potential for a soaking rain/heavy wet snowfall... I think they realized how badly they dropped the ball on the last one, leaving highway crews scrambling at the last second to clear the roads.

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    Replies
    1. Highway crews weren't scrambling. When snow is that heavy it takes ALOT longer to clear roads. Crews still have equipment ready to roll.

      Delete
  36. CCCC or Weatherguy any updates on what the latest EURO and GFS say about our chances of rain or snow next week?

    ReplyDelete
  37. NWS discussion:

    "THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SUB-1000MB LOW...WITH ALL OF THE GEFS MEMBERS FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES END UP BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE STORM UP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...BUT IT IS THE TRACK THAT THEY DIFFER UPON. THIS TRACK WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DECIDING IF THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN EVENT OR A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW."

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  38. There will a HIS in the Flower City within the next 7 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  39. Big question is? Will we ever get a new post from News 8?

    ReplyDelete
  40. No , they're almost as lazy as myself during the winter...

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    Replies
    1. HP is not even home from work yet and he would never insult anyone!

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    2. Are you his boyfriend or something? LOL

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    3. Really -- was this type of comments necessary. Not LOL.

      Delete
  41. Scott said no more snow until November at 4.

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  42. He has rain an d 60 on Tuesday so he is pretty confident this done no wet snow hoo- ray!!!

    ReplyDelete
  43. Thanks, Hamlin resident and Ray. I have not posted recently and no I would not purposely insult anyone.

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    Replies
    1. No you would not.

      Delete
    2. Come on -- stop this. HP has been one of the bloggers for this site for a very long time. Let respect each other.

      Delete
  44. News 10 also has warm temps and rain. This storm is going to our west thus heavy rain and that is ok.

    ReplyDelete
  45. I will say I have mixed feelings about April snowstorms. The weather geek inside always roots for snow, while the homeowner and town worker have had MORE than enough snow for one season. As far as next weeks storm Heavy rain or Heavy snow BOTH will make a mess. I will just sit back and wait to see what we get, WHO KNOWS.

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    Replies
    1. Above is not the REAL HP , Please disregard anything he/she has said under my name. Sorry about that everyone!

      Delete
  46. This is what I am confused about? Most of the winter the mets would not definite statements about storms until at least 2 days before. This was including dropping the ball the same day last Saturday. Now when I think there are still models not locked in on track they are saying for sure heavy rain 5 days in advance? Just confused even though I get it is April but they said last Saturday things are tougher to predict this time of the year.

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  47. I think to say this far out that it is one way or the other is probably not the best thing to do since so Much can change. A hunch or gut feeling is fine but I would not make plans based on any forecast this far out no matter who its from

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  48. Ensemble means are split 50/50 east vs. west so way too early to speculate

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  49. Scott has done that a lot this year and quite frankly been wrong a lot. Not saying he is wrong here or trying to be a jerk just being honest. News 8 was not Rochester's Most Accurate this winter.

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    Replies
    1. I'd really love to know who votes for that or if it's just another self-proclamation they throw at their viewers to stick around.

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  50. KW same thing primarily rain not white. I now feel pretty confident when both are confident so winter is now done and lets get spring going.

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    Replies
    1. Winter is NOT done by any means.

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  51. I am still not sure how KW and Scottie are definitive in their no snow but rain stance. It does not look like a definite on the models to me? CCCC any thoughts please based on current model runs?

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    Replies
    1. once again the local weather professionals are WRONG. Explain the snow this morning, certainly was not rain.

      Delete
  52. Right now rain is the favored precip type rather than snow, but I think it is indeed too early to be definitive. The weekend storm was "definitively" heading harmlessly out to sea at one point, remember that.

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    Replies
    1. Explain the snow this morning, and the UGG of it all.

      Delete
  53. I now see scott has 42 for a high on Tuesday and it says "mixed stuff". that is a far cry from 60 and rain. which is why i said i would not believe any forecast this far out especially seeing how things have changed this winter. Expect anything hope for the best.

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  54. Saturday projected to be very windy with 40 mph wind gusts, and 40% chance of snow and rain mix -- UGH! Hope it won't all turn to the wet, heavy snow like last Saturday into Sunday. For those who predicted or wanted 115+ inches of snow; think you might just achieve it.

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  55. There will be a HIS in the Flower City within 6 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete

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