Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Monday, April 14

Summer, Winter & Spring All in One Week!

Written by John DiPasquale:

Summer Sunday & today, but late tonight into Tuesday we will step back into winter for a couple of days with rain changing & ending as snow during midday and afternoon.  A minor slushy accumulation is probable Tuesday afternoon, especially on grassy surfaces and hilltops.  Temperatures will drop from near record warmth yesterday & today back into the 30s Tuesday & struggle to get out of the 30s Wednesday despite a good deal of April sunshine!

Temperatures will rebound nicely Thursday & Friday into the 50s & 60s, respectively under more sun, before it turns somewhat unsettled possibly for Easter weekend.  Temperatures will probably be colder for the weekend too, but the weekend is still several days out so it could still change.  Be sure to tune to News 8 throughout the week for the all important holiday weekend updates.

Have a good start to your week everyone!


       

112 comments:

  1. Have a shot at a record low for early Wednesday morning, I believe the record is 22 degrees...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Brace yourself, as you will probably get blasted by blogger who don't like these type of posts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Please stop it we're in spring now stop spreading misinformation and enjoy the warmth boy I sure do love living in a bubble of ignorance derpalerpaderp."

      Let this be my "tact be damned" post for the week.

      Delete
    2. Oh I'm sorry what happened to your rant about winter not being over? If I remember correctly you and couple other anons were pleading that winter will stick around.. well looks like your wrong again.. shocker!

      Delete
    3. Have you seen the forecast for today. Kind of feels like winter to me.

      Delete
    4. 33 degrees with light snow...definitely feels a lot like winter to me. In any event I don't recall ranting that winter wasn't over, and even if I did it wouldn't have been completely incorrect.

      Delete
  3. Chance of an ice storm?

    ReplyDelete
  4. There may be a minor glazing of ice, but there won't be an ice storm. NWS discussion:

    "TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN AS WE NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HOUR. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION."

    ReplyDelete
  5. Looks like a big swath of precipitation coming from our west? Could this be underestimated?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Major slug of heavy precipitation will move through in temperatures well above freezing so the chances of this being underestimated is low.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks Scott just was wondering about freezing rain. We have had a few surprises in the past with ice.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I hear you but skew T profiles don't suggest a prolonged period of freezing rain. Brief but I would put it at .10" at worst.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Okay thanks I am a rookie and not sure what that means but I trust you. Just worried that Anon who predicted the Blizzard may be 2 for 2 with the ice storm prediction.

    ReplyDelete
  10. If the potential were there, I would be talking about it I promise.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Scattered lake enhanced snow showers are occurring across the western Lakes as of now, and that will be the case here as well by later today. If that isn't winter-like then I don't know what would be. Our record low for the 16th is in major jeopardy as well.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hopefully some warmer weather is on its way. Tuesday was like Winter's way of saying goodbye.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Winter never says goodbye, it makes like it's going to before turning back around and running over your freshly planted flower garden, completely tearing it up. Then it flips you the bird and heads off into the dark abyss until November.

      Delete
    2. Okay this made be smile.

      Delete
  13. Today is what all days in April should aspire to be.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Winter not over yet!

    ReplyDelete
  15. 10 day forecast showing mostly average or above temps.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I hope the Easter Bunny didn't get tabbed with a DUI this morning...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Unfortunately the forecast for the week has changed a bit and looksl ike after tomorrow we're gonna be mostly below normal for the next 6 days.

    Cccc, any insight beyond?

    Thanks
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  18. Blocking may set up by the end of April into early May, and the Euro ensembles are hinting strongly at a cutoff low moving close by during that time. This would result in an extended period of cool and showery weather.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What else is new. This horrid pattern has essentially been unchanged for over a year now. Last spring sucked and this one is worse. Same for "summer". We better hope that pacific gets real hot real fast if only to break this mess we are in.

      Delete
  19. I'm beginning to think our long winter is turning into a short summer.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Sal, I too am starting to get a little concerned. We are running mostly below normal temps MTD and it looks like the 10 day fcst has us mostly below normal as well. But we have to temper expectations.

    In my opinion April usually is a frustrating month where winter and summer fight it out and this isn't that unusual.

    I can't say this with authority because I haven't analyzed the climatology data yet, but I don't think Aprils weather defines summer.

    Trying to stay optimistic, but as a winter and summer weather lover the season of mud doesn't have much to offer.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. April is the cruelest month...

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldApril 26, 2014 at 8:52 PM

      Typically, warm / hot summer patterns tend to show themselves by now. I think it will be a below normal summer temperature-wise, at least the first half. All the reports of a hot summer - not sure where they were coming from - no signs of that I can see. Perhaps these reports were driven by the thought that an El Nino may develop?

      Delete
    3. That would be kind of hilarious because the last El Nino we had was one of the major players in the unusually cool summer of 2009.

      Delete
  21. Which is why, when I retire, that I will go south for the month of April. April sucks - too warm for snow and generally too cool, wet and muddy for much quality outdoor activities.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  22. This is typical lousy depressing Rochester weather in Spring. Cloudy, damp, cool with no sun. Next week looks lousy for the whole week with rain every day and no sun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not just Rochester, the entire North East.

      Delete
  23. Hence the reason I despise the month of April. I won't complain about it because it is what it is and we only get one climate...I just wish sometimes that it didn't include such an extended period of sloppy doldrums. The trees being late to regrow their leaves this year isn't exactly helping either.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Chris now in PenfieldApril 26, 2014 at 8:47 PM

    I wouldn't expect the trees to be fully leaved out until mid-May (10-15th) at this point, with the lack of warm days, with an exception here or there.

    ReplyDelete
  25. The internet warned me about taking Aleve so soon after heavy consumption of adult beverages. I did not heed the warnings. Kids, never eat anything containing Naproxen immediately after fun grownup drinky times, or your stomach will hate you forever :<

    The point n' click forecast from the NWS for my location has showers likely or categorical every single 12 hour period from Monday night through the day Thursday. Bleh. At least the middle of the week should be relatively mild, but I'm starting to worry that the long streak of beautiful weather for Imagine RIT is in serious jeopardy. Also totally not a shameless plug or anything, but you all should come on down to Imagine RIT this upcoming Saturday even if the weather stinks. There's plenty of fun indoor stuff like getting an extreme closeup photo of your eyeball and playing Count the Fedoras.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Any hope on the horizon? The 10 day still looks abysmal.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  27. The GFS ensembles start to get a milder look to them after the 10 day period. That's all I can really see right now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope you're right. Thanks!
      Andy

      Delete
  28. While I take it with a grain of salt, the extended forecast from AccuWeather doesn't show us hitting 70 till around May 19. It shows high temps mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s through that period.

    I hope it's wrong-ugh!
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldApril 30, 2014 at 8:41 PM

      You mean, AccuNever? Andy - with your weather prowess proven, I am surprised you would even look at that site!

      Delete
  29. I agree with Andy. The 10 day forecast looks terrible! I really, really hope this is not an indication of the rest of spring, and summer ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I'm more hung up on the 1-1.25 inches of rain on the way from our friendly neighborhood closed low:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

    The operational GFS yields totals closer to 2 inches. Some of the rainfall will be convective (i.e. thunderstorms/thundershowers) in nature especially on the leading edge of the storm system, so I can see spotty 2 inch amounts especially in the southern tier. The GFS ensemble mean has less rainfall than the operational, and is more representative of a blend of most other models (including the usually wet-biased NAM).

    ReplyDelete
  31. We might be in for a gloomy time of it in the foreseeable future, but at least we won't have to worry about potentially not having homes to live in:

    http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/photos-tornado-outbreak-midwest-deep-south-20140427

    ReplyDelete
  32. I think we will have a cool wet Summer. Scott even said that we will not 90 much this summer. I think I will take a vacation to the South.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Let's not have a pity party for ROC. The wx for much of the country is pretty bad. Below normal temps and wet is expected for a large part of country. At least we don't have very severe weather.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  34. Personally I wouldn't mind a cooler summer where we don't hit 90. Wetter than normal doesn't bother me either as long as it's primarily from thunderstorms. Basically just low to mid 70s most of the time with a few brief heat waves that wash away with an outbreak of thunderstorms. I'm really hoping for a repeat of the outbreak from last July, those storms brought strong winds and multiple lightning strikes per second for hours on end where I was. The only downside was that the Lake Erie shadow caused those storms to train and focus initially on Niagara County, which led to some very nasty flooding out that way. I do not wish for a repeat of that particular aspect, otherwise it was some of the best thunderstorm action I'd seen in years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldApril 30, 2014 at 8:39 PM

      That would be Friday, July 19, 2013. I remember because those storms rolled through along the lakeshore in Wayne County around 8:00pm. This was when my rehearsal dinner the night before my wedding at Captain Jack's in Sodus Point. The power went out and we finished our dinner by candlelight. It rained and rained and rained. The wind took down two large tents set up at the location of our outdoor wedding; poor guy who owned the rental company had to come out at 11pm and fix them. We were worried about the weather at the time of our 4:00 wedding on Saturday afternoon, but the cold front had rushed through by then and the weather was literally perfect…about 75 degrees, sun-splashed skies with some light cirrus clouds.

      Delete
  35. The back edge of the rain shield keeps reforming about 30 miles to our southwest, and thus it is not making any forward progress. Why can't this kind of thing happen with snowstorms :<

    ReplyDelete
  36. Rain, Rain go away!!!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Once again our weather sucks, but it's nothing compared to what's going on in the south. Heavy thunderstorms nearly stalled last night, resulting in floods and death. Not to mention the tornado deaths earlier in week.

    Any change in our prospects for better weather? Scott made a ominous tweet yesterday saying warmer weather coming end of May. At this point I'll accept anything drier.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  38. Have a feeling we will not see any Spring-like weather this year, but will see a cooler, shorter summer, and then into Fall/Winter. What is more concerning is that the Lilacs probably won't even be ready to bloom for the Lilac Festival seeing the extended forecast -- not much above 55-60 degrees for a couple of weeks or so.

    However, someone did say they wished the rain was snow instead; must be having some withdraw symptoms from Winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This weather is actually decidedly spring-like, although I know exactly what you're referring to...sun and warmth rather than rain and chill. I too am worried about the Lilacs. A cool summer seems more likely than a hot one at this point, but its duration remains to be seen.

      Delete
  39. Chris now in PenfieldApril 30, 2014 at 8:42 PM

    Is this El Nino going to form, or what?!?!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The El Nino is already in the process of forming:
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

      Here is the most CFSv2 model outlook for the critical ENSO region up to January 2015:
      http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

      And here is a plume of various other long range models as well as the CFSv2. This is from mid April which is the most current depiction:
      http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/figure4.gif

      It's worth noting that the last time an El Nino was predicted it failed to materialize, despite some outlooks as well as the CFSv2 calling for a moderate to strong El Nino. There are much stronger signals available this time however. One of the more telling signals is the current weakening of the Walker cell over the equatorial Pacific, correlating with weakened/reversed trade winds which encourage El Nino development. Normally with a stronger Walker cell the corresponding stronger trade winds push warmer air and water into the western Pacific, where low pressure develops and cools both the air and water. The cooler air is then transported back east by the Walker cell while the cooler water is transported back east by deep ocean currents which develop in response to the surface water pushing west. Here is a diagram to visualize this:

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/LaNina.png

      With a weaker Walker cell (and thus weaker trade winds) the surface water does not push westward as quickly as before. Instead it rests in place or moves more slowly westward (or even eastward with stronger El Nino episodes) and sunlight is allowed to heat it up more readily, leading to positive SST departures and thus El Nino conditions. Upwelling of cooler water in the critical ENSO region is also weak or nonexistent, since the deep ocean currents that transport the cool water eastward either weaken or fade completely in response to less robust surface water movement. Since we have this process ongoing and strengthening as of now, a complete collapse of the developing El Nino seems rather unlikely. For now, the CPC is going with a >50% probability of an El Nino being in place by some point during the summer, with a CPC/INI consensus indicating the same thing.

      This was originally going to be a much shorter post, but I geeked out :|

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldMay 2, 2014 at 8:06 PM

      I wonder if it will hang around and influence the 14-15 winter…?

      Delete
  40. el Nino means rainy summer?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know of any correlation between El Nino and summer rainfall in our region.

      Delete
  41. So very nice to be seeing the sun for once...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was, but also short lived. Back to rain.

      Delete
  42. Yes it was nice seeing the sun yesterday. It looks like after Sunday the trend is for warmer and dryer.

    Lets hope!
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  43. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg

    Still better than a slow-moving cutoff low.

    ReplyDelete
  44. How about a new update on the blog? It's been almost a month since we have seen an update from the ch. 8 weather team. There is still weather even though the headlines aren't snow and wind. Warm temps and sunshine still constitute "weather" Correct me if I'm wrong,but weather occurs 365 days a year. Let's talk about warm temps and sunshine. It's just as exciting as snow and cold. We heard about blizzards and wind chills for 6 months. Let's turn the corner and talk about warm temps. and summer conditions.



    ReplyDelete
  45. The only problem is that there really isn't much to analyze about sunshine. There are plenty of things to say when the discussion is about storms. Where exactly does one take a discussion about sunshine? "The sun is out. It looks nice outside." And that's the extent of it. We could talk about the UV index and sun tans and such, but that doesn't seem particularly compelling. Or we could discuss angle of incidence and how it leads to four distinct seasons, but that would put everyone to sleep. Bountiful sunshine is a great thing to have this time of year, it beautifies everything and contributes to more positive moods amongst the populace. But it makes for a less than ideal conversation piece on its own. Mild temps are the same, they feel fantastic to be outside in but that's all you can really say about them (at least during traditionally mild times of the year such as mid/late spring). Plus calm/seasonable weather in general is considered to be a "default" of sorts by most people. Storms, cold snaps and heat waves are considered disruptions, and people generally prefer talking about disruptions over defaults even if that talk amounts to petty complaining. Or an analogy could be that blank stamps are still stamps, but they're a lot less interesting to collectors than stamps with presidents or state flags on them. Warmth and sunshine is essentially the blank stamp of weather.

    I do agree that we need to get a new thread going, especially since we have some unsettled weather and potential thunderstorms to deal with on Friday and Saturday. This thread about the wintry frontal system is so last month...

    ReplyDelete
  46. Kevin Trenberth of NCAR believes that the big question regarding the potential upcoming El Nino isn't "if" but rather "how strong." He is one of the top experts at NCAR, so his word is worth a lot:

    http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2014/05/big-question-this-years-el-nio-how-big-how-destructive/

    The average monthly SOI is beginning to drop after rising rather substantially in April. A monthly SOI consistently at -8 or lower correlates strongly with El Nino conditions. We are currently at 1.77 and dropping, although fluctuations are to be expected:

    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

    ReplyDelete
  47. What does El Nino mean to us hear in ROC?

    I'm encouraged by the trend. This weekend wasn't supposed to be that great early in the week and now it's looking pretty darn good. Hope this continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What El Nino means for us depends on how strong it is and where the strongest oceanic temp anomalies set up. The stronger the El Nino, the more of an impact it will have for us. Still, that impact will be weaker here than it will be in a place such as Australia, and the potential impact of even a strong El Nino could be negated by the presence of persistently strong phases of the important teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA, etc). Such a thing happened during the strong La Nina of 2010-2011, where the typical winter climatology for such an event was completely overridden by the persistently strong negative NAO which characterized that season.

      Delete
    2. So does that mean for a potentially warmer summer/fall or cooler summer/fall or neither?
      Thanks

      Delete
    3. It would probably contribute to a cooler summer, but the influence is weaker during the summer months. Contribution to a warmer/cooler fall depends upon where the strongest temp anomalies are.

      Delete
  48. Still not many leaves on trees or bushes - brown and grey not great colors for Spring. Feels like we have had not much of a Spring

    ReplyDelete
  49. I actually had a dream last night that a new blog topic was finally posted. So disappointed right now -_-

    ReplyDelete
  50. I am quite glad to have looked outside just in time to see the gust front rolling in, because it led to some fun adventures outside with the roommate just now.

    ReplyDelete
  51. This spring sucks so far. The rain is ridiculous and next week looks crappy as well. I hope this is not the way summer will go.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Considering we did not have much of a Spring; have a feeling we should expect the same for Summer. We will then be back in Fall and Winter. Hopefully Winter will not be a cold (polar votex) this time around as it was for this last winter. Could do without the -25+ wind chill. So who knows about Winter; perhaps those who were disappointed to have had one 1 blizzard, can expect more this time around. But Spring -- nope we passed that mark. Summer, have a feeling it will be cool, wet, and short. Oh well, counting down the days til that first snow fall. We can all be envy of those in Denver. Think a Winter Storm in May - now that would be exciting.

      Delete
  52. WPC outlook for 7 day QPF:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

    ReplyDelete
  53. Don't know which is more depressing all this rain, gray skies or having to work on the only days which have been sunny and warm. UGH!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  54. Except for last night, May has been below normal rain and running above average temps. We've had some sun, to a lot of sun, every day since last Weds or Thursday. Not sure there is much to complain about May so far.

    Has news 8 abandoned this blog for the season? Will it only be used for talking about winter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Below normal. Are you kidding me. I live in Western Wayne county and I have had well over 3 inches so far. Far from below normal. The airport is small area and their measurement skills suck. My back yard is a pond and very soggy. The sun has not been out much at all. Mainly a cloudy May, rainy and damp. I am not sure where you live.

      Delete
    2. Until Tuesday night we were below average for precip in May at ROC. Sure there may be some zip code differences and it's definitely going to get very soggy in the next 24 hrs.

      But what's irrefutable irrefutable is the temps for May so far have been running a above average. Wilson we have had sun every day since last Weds or Thurs.

      Delete
  55. Dantheman
    Hey Scott, John, Stacy how about some input on the Flood Watch and the potential for any more damaging storms!

    ReplyDelete
  56. Stupid auto correct on my 10:01 post. Should say "Also we will have had sun every day since last weds or thurs."

    ReplyDelete
  57. Massena hit 91 degrees today. Major southerly downsloping off the Adirondacks was no doubt the culprit. Other locations in the same region hit the upper 70s to low 80s with lesser downsloping.

    WPC excessive rainfall probabilities:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif

    Unfortunately the axis of heaviest rainfall appears to be aimed squarely at locations that just dealt with major flash flooding, such as Penn Yan. It's very possible that they may have to deal with it a second time.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Penn Yan is getting hit really bad. Surprised no new posting from Channel 8 since beginning of April. Must be they don't care unless it is Winter, snow, or blizzard. Driving into work it is amazing how many yard are already filled with water. Still nothing from 8.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Honeoye Central closed! Water, water everwhere!

    ReplyDelete
  60. As Doctor McCoy examined the blog he said, "it's dead Jim"

    ReplyDelete
  61. And as Blake out of Mitch & Murray followed up he said:

    "A.
    B.
    P.
    A: always B: be P: posting. ALWAYS BE POSTING!
    Always. Be. Posting.

    AIDA, Attention, Interest, Decision, Action.
    Attention: Do I have your attention?
    Interest: Are you interested? I know you are 'cause it's post or walk, you contribute or you hit the bricks.
    Decision: HAVE YOU MADE YOUR DECISION FOR HETSKO
    And action...

    AIDA, you got the readers coming in, you think they came in to get out of the rain? A guy don't come on the blog unless he wants to read. They're sitting out there waiting to give you their attention, are you gonna take it?
    Are you man enough to take it?"

    ReplyDelete
  62. Even with the flooding in Fairport - no new blog posting from Channel 8. Disappointing to say the least.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Official List of Things That Will Happen Before a New Thread from News 8:

    -A Category 5 hurricane strikes Florida
    -Tornadoes ravage the Boston metro area
    -Downtown Phoenix floods from excessive rainfall
    -Earth's magnetic poles complete their long-awaited reversal
    -The dinosaurs rise from the dead and reveal themselves to be angels from an unseen dimension
    -Donald Sterling says something positive about racial minorities
    -Snowdog says something positive about Rochester winters
    -Comcast goes bankrupt, divorces FCC commissioner
    -The sun explodes, WBC pickets its funeral
    -The universe achieves maximum entropy, heat death commences and all physical phenomena cease to occur
    -CCCC quits alcohol forever

    ReplyDelete
  64. Pretty unusual prevalence of heavy storm activity in populated areas over the past few days. Denver metro a few days ago, Albany metro and Philly metro today with crazy hail and tornadoes. Densely populated areas are never immune to major severe activity, but it's quite unusual to have three different mid to large sized metro areas be struck by very powerful storms in such a short span especially outside of the Plains/Midwest. The one near Albany was a supercell too, very rare for the Northeast.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldMay 22, 2014 at 9:47 PM

      Seems to be the more rare, the more frequent lately…

      Looks like we have a cool summer brewing folks. The pattern for J-J-A seems to be set in place. Perhaps mid-to-late August it will change with the influence of the anticipated El Nino. I will be the first to go on the record to predict a milder winter with frequent up and down temps, similar to 94-95 and 97-98. I remember a 70 F day in Feb 1998…I bet we see that again…all dependent upon an El Nino forming AND a less than prominent -NAO and -AO.

      This winter certainly taught me that no teleconnection factor outweighs another…we barely had a negative NAO and AO all winter, yet look at the way the winter turned out due to the placement of the PV…NAO and AO were nearly non-factors. Seems as though the snowpack in October in Siberia is the most reliable predictor we have!

      Delete
    2. Thing is that the PV placement may have actually been driven by a teleconnection (EPO) being in the negative phase for most of the winter. The various teleconnections do sometimes mitigate each others effects, or even enhance them, but sometimes we get a case where a single very prevalent one seems to completely take the reins. Curiously, our old friend the NAO has been probably the least influential teleconnection of any of the major ones over the past three winters. The AO was the most significant driver of 2011-12, the PNA during the following winter and the EPO most recently.

      "Seems as though the snowpack in October in Siberia is the most reliable predictor we have!"

      The Siberian snow cover hypothesis is definitely a very promising one at the moment, but still in relative infancy.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldMay 30, 2014 at 7:36 PM

      Correct. I believe the last winter that featured the NAO playing a strong role was 2010-11. It was almost dominant in 2009-10, but we didn't see much of a winter here (at least from a snowfall perspective) because we were 0 for 9 on nor'easters, the result of a PV being too far south, stifling lake effect and steering storms away. Seems as though when the -NAO is the prevalent teleconnection, our winters are consistently cold and snowy. Last winter, being an -EPO season, featured more oscillating temperatures than the general public remembers. You would think last winter featured below freezing temps for months in a row. We had a two week stretch that was above normal, frequently in the 40s, during the first part of January. That was following another warm up in the third week of December. Then we went into the deep freeze for four weeks, before another warm up into the 50s in mid to late Feburary. Overall, it was a long winter, but not without interruptions. 2010-11, 2002-03 on the other hand…had NO warmups, minus a 36 hour stretch in Feb. 2011, where it warmed up and cooled off quickly within a day. I don't believe there was ANY warm up in 2002-03.

      Delete
  65. Chris now in PenfieldMay 22, 2014 at 9:48 PM

    BTW, CCCC - if you haven't tried it or are not a regular…I recommend vodka and 7up with a lemonade, or perhaps just Vodka and lemonade. Great summer drink.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will definitely give that a try. One of my friends accidentally discovered a different delicious drink about a week ago. It's 99 Bananas and Triple sec with cherry coke. I'm not sure what the exact proportions are because the friend just sort of tossed arbitrary amounts in, all I remember is that it was really good. I guess it would make a good summer drink? I dunno, there's banana flavor in it so I suppose that makes it summery. lol

      Delete
  66. would be nice to get a post about the Memorial Day Weekend, even if it were to wish all the bloggers Happy Memorial Day; but not!

    ReplyDelete
  67. It would be nice to have a post by Channel 8's Weather Team about the Holiday Weekend Weather; but oh wait, it is no longer winter and they don't bother with this blog any more; even with the flooding recently and in Fairport. Thought weather reporting was year-round, guess we were wrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol i told you guys they self proclaim there the best weather team in rochester.. clearly they're laughing at us on here.

      Delete
  68. It looks like we may actually see an extended period of dry weather. Amazing!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  69. By extended, how long are you talking? It looks to me like a possible shower this afternoon, then showers again Monday night/Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The forecast looks dry after Tuesday, so I'm guessing that's the "extended dry period" being referenced. At least several days with high pressure building in.

      Delete
  70. Here we go again with potential flooding rain Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is getting so old. Every time my yard starts to Dry we get more crappy rain.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Where is the News 8 team? Is the blog going by the waste side? I hope not we love it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Heard that they do not post during non-winter months, and consider the blog for use during Winter months only. So I guess they should call this the "Winter" Weather Blog.

      Delete
  72. I'm pretty sure they were blogging last summer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Doesn't explain why they have not posted anything thus far, even with all of the recent flooding, like in Fairport. Who cares what they did and did not do last year, we are talking about now.

      Delete
  73. You've not updated the ch. 8 blog in over a month. Did I miss an announcement that it is discontinued?

    On Scott's facebook page, he was asked why there have not been any posting on the Weather Blog recently (see above) and below for his response....

    Scott Hetsko - The primary use of the blog has been when interest peaks during Winter storms. We typically get little or no response in Summer so we focus more on other social media.

    So unless there is something drastic happening, weather wise, I would look for information or updates as to the weather as he states on other social media.

    ReplyDelete
  74. So I can be in the blog and stay up late and watch TV and eat ice cream and Scottie won't yell at me? SWEET

    ReplyDelete
  75. One whole week without rain in Rochester. It is a miracle.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive