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Tuesday, June 10

SOAKING SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

A warm front will help send dew point temperatures well into the 60s by Wednesday morning.  Moisture and added lift will result in some soaking showers and storms developing in Western New York over the next 48 hours.  Steering winds will be strong enough so that most showers and storms will move quick so the flood risk area wide is low but still will need to be watched.

A cold front will plow all the humidity off the coast by Friday evening which will leave us with sunshine and lower humidity for Fathers' Day weekend!

60 comments:

  1. Just what we need more rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Not.

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  2. It's be pretty dry. We need some rain.

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  3. Not where I live.

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  4. Unless you are in an area where a thunderstorm parked, we are below average MTD by almost 50%. We've only had measurable rain 2 of the last 18 days before today.

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  5. My dog found a smelly ditch to swim in.. normally the ditch is dry. I must be in one of those areas that storms parked over.

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  6. Scott what the heck does "minty air" imply? Is the air going to smell like mint? Or taste like mint? Will I be able to take a gulp of air and have immediate fresh breath? My weekend plans hinge on clarification of this tweet from you, as my entire budget this week went towards whiskey and blow. Thusly I can no longer afford breath fresheners of my own.

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  7. Good that Rochester missed all the heavy rain this week. Next week looks unsettled again. We just cannot get a week without rain. I think Scott was right on that we will not see many if any 90's this summer. Ok by me.

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    Replies
    1. We can't get a week without rain?!!? Before Weds we had rain only 2 of the previous 18 days!!!

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    2. Much of the region is running a good deal below normal on rainfall for June so far, and KROC has seen measurable rainfall on just 3 days this month.

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  8. Keep the 90's out of here..along with the humidity.

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  9. What happened to the sunny weekend we were supposed to get?????? Most of yesterday was cloudy and very cool and I wake up today and it is overcast again.

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    Replies
    1. Relax it's morning scud.
      Clear and sunny now

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  10. NWS discussion regarding tomorrow night's thunderstorm potential:

    "THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE ON-GOING CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION...IT SEEMS AS IF THE ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE AN MCV...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE AN ALREADY MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL OFFER DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM) OF GREATER THAN 40KTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES IN VCNTY OF 1.75"... THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR STRONG TO SEVERE `HOME GROWN` CONVECTION."

    Relevant paragraph from the latest HWO:

    "STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMING IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING."

    This appears to be the first legitimate threat for severe weather so far this warm season. Previous storm outbreaks have produced isolated severe storms, but no notable severe threat was forecasted for those outbreaks. The discussion goes on to mention that the greatest risk is across the far western counties (think Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Niagara), but also that the entire CWA is included in a general risk area.

    And this tidbit from the discussion only further highlights the woeful state of the current GFS model:

    "THE GFS SEEMS TO BE USELESS IN AIDING WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SAID CONVECTION BECAUSE (LIKE ITS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS) IT IS CHOCK FULL OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...WHICH ARE NOT PRESENT IN THE 3D VAR BASED ECMWF OR EVEN THE NAM."

    That's right, even the perpetually wayward NAM is a superior model for this situation compared to the GFS. As terribly as the GFS tends to handle winter storms, it seems to perform even worse with convective precipitation events. And as per usual, the Euro model trumps the GFS in usefulness thanks to its superior physics package and computing power.

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  11. And for those freaks out there who still pine for snow, consider booking a last-minute trip to Montana:

    "URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
    533 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

    …HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

    .A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AS LOW AS 6000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW OF UP TO A FOOT OR MORE IS LIKELY ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT INCLUDING GLACIER NATIONAL PARK."

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  12. Mesoscale discussion for WNY from SPC:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1038.html

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  13. CCCC,
    Thanks for taking over the blog and keeping everyone updated.
    Ray

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  14. NP Ray :D
    Although to be honest, "everyone" at this point consists of you, me and a small scattering of occasional anonymous posters. Demand for blog material is just about nonexistent outside of the winter season. Kind of a shame.

    That squall line over southern Ontario looks vicious. It'll be approaching our region within the next few hours. Some rogue cells have broken out ahead of it and they look like they mean business as well.

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    1. I should add also that the squall line has produced at least one confirmed tornado.

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  15. SPC is planning on issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1043.html

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  16. CCCC what is the early prediction for our 2014/15 winter?

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    1. Warm and snowless

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    2. Still way too early to speculate on the upcoming winter. All I know for sure is that the upcoming El Nino now appears to be trending away from "strong" territory, a change from earlier outlooks. A strong El Nino would've favored a milder winter with below average snowfall, but now with the revised outlooks the door is open for other, less predictable factors (e.g. teleconnections) to exert more of an influence. For the record, weak/moderate El Nino phases tend to produce snowier than average winters around here, especially weak phases. Not sure of any temperature correlation though.

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  17. Chris now in PenfieldJune 22, 2014 at 4:20 PM

    Interesting. I have been out of the loop in regards to El Nino discussions lately.

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  18. Beautiful weekend.

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  19. More GFS hijinks per NWS:

    "BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL POSITION AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIPPLE ALONG IT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND STRONGER WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY... PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. THE GFS AND MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING GREATLY FROM GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH IS CREATING SYNOPTIC SCALE NOISE IN THE MODEL AND FORCING THE FRONTAL WAVE TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND STRONGER THAN WHAT IS REALISTIC. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/ECMWF IDEA WITH A FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH PA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY."

    And again...

    "MODELS DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BUILDS A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PA/SOUTHERN NY ON SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THIS AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-ZEALOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE GFS MODEL...SO HAVE FAVORED THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND."

    Embarrassing.

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  20. Looks like another beautiful weekend coming up. Love it.

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  21. Flash Flood Watch in effect from the Genesee Valley westward. The Year of the Downpour continues.

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  22. Yeah. Downpours is an understatement. It is like we live in the tropics. Rainy summer days are depressing.

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  23. Looks like the GFS was right.

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  24. Gotta love when it's still 80 degrees at 10 pm -_-

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  25. Can I tell you how tired I am of these torrential downpours. I think we picked up 2 inches of rain form those storms yesterday. It is like living in Florida.

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  26. Replies
    1. Hey it is better than the polar votex of this past winter. Would rather have 80 degree weather with humidity vs. -25 degree with snow.

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  27. Great summer so far since about mothers day. I had pretty low expectations based on the cold winter and cold spring and what that had meant in the past for summer.

    Aside from some periodic torrential rains, I say thumbs up!

    Andy

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  28. Charge up your cameras for the 4th because it is going to be absolutely picture perfect.

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  29. Can anyone give me their opinion in what the late afternoon and evening weather will be like in Conesus? It's Ring of Fire night and I have 30 people coming! Some in tents!! The mets have changed their forecast so many times for today that I don't know what to think!!

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  30. Just finished uploading an audio recording of recent blog activity:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg

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  31. You would think that with the recent Thunderstorms and Tornado Warnings; the team would update the blog with something. But then again, it is not winter.

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  32. Plus John is gone and he did a lot of the posts...

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  33. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 17, 2014 at 9:07 PM

    Where did John go?

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  34. Replies
    1. Just a pedantic correction but it's now known as Time Warner Cable News, no longer YNN. Still, I wish John the absolute best of luck at his new place of employment, at the very least he gets to remain in the Rochester area.

      Now we face the major question, truly and most certainly the ultimate conundrum of our time...can the Fearsome Forecaster, the Prideful Predictor, the Mythical Meteorological Marvel Man Scott Hetsko be able to shoulder the enormously gigantic and overwhelmingly massive responsibility of creating new blog topics every two to three weeks? Or will the Weather Wonder Woman, the Feminine Fireball of Forecasting Fury, the Super Skating See-er of Storms Stacey Pensgen be the one to step up to the plate? Tune in next week for the next exciting episode of WEATHER BALL Z.

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  35. Even when John was here..the blog dropped off in the summer. Late fall when snow started becoming possible it would start up again.

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  36. The very wet and cool summer continues. After Friday the weather looks terrible. It is going to be an early fall.

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  37. Anon 3:24 AM what are you talking about? Very wet and cool summer? Really? Where do you get your data from?

    Facts:
    June: 2 degrees above normal. 21 days of fair to partly cloudy skies. 3% above normal sun. 1.25" below normal precip.

    July MTD 0.7 degress below normal (hardly cool). 20 clear/partly cloudy days and only 4 cloudy days. Precip 1.13" above normal, most of which occurred on a couple select days. Most days hardly very wet as you claim.

    Terrible after Friday you say? Saturday and Sunday look like pretty normal summer days-- High of 81 with chance of thunderstorms.

    Early fall you say? It will cool down a bit next week, but how is that not normal and how does that indicate an early fall?

    Nothing annoys me more than peoples skewed perceptions of reality.

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  38. The next week or so should average cooler than normal, but the possibility of a hot spell exists for early August as the western Atlantic ridge may expand over the eastern part of the country. All in all I must say it hasn't been a terrible summer, not too many hot/humid days and plenty of precipitation (although the downpours have started getting obnoxious).

    El Nino is still strongly favored to develop and last through the winter, but recently the upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has diminished the previous positive temp anomalies. Downwelling should begin again soon if it hasn't already, and the warm anomalies should be re-established, but as of now it would seem that the chance of any "Super Nino" or even an ordinary strong El Nino are just about nil. We are now looking at something more along the lines of a weak/moderate El Nino, possibly a Modoki event. The term "Modoki" implies that it would be a basin-wide event, with the warmest anomalies in the central portion of the equatorial Pacific.

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    1. Implications for winter?

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    2. At least five blizzards and possibly a freak sandstorm.

      Kidding aside, a weak/moderate El Nino Modoki would probably favor a snowier than normal winter. A large majority of winters with weak El Ninos have featured average to above average snowfall, with a slight majority for moderate El Ninos. This is, as always, pending the dominant phases of the various teleconnections, which can't be reliably predicted more than a week or two in advance. The potential impacts of a weak El Nino would be stamped out almost entirely by pronounced teleconnection phases.

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  39. July is going to finish well below average with ZERO days at 90 or above in July

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  40. Here we go again. Heavy rain in the forecast. The wet summer continues.

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  41. Around 2 and a half inches of rain so far at the airport for today, and still coming down hard. The most precipitation ever recorded in Rochester on any day in July is 3.33 inches, and the way things are going that record may be toppled today. Removing somewhat from the impressiveness of such a feat would be the fact that the current record was established only 8 years ago, on July 12th 2006.

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  42. Hydroplane crash on 490 this morning:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r4J_c0Iab4

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  43. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 28, 2014 at 6:17 PM

    Totally agree with your early thoughts on the winter, C4x. A moderate to weak El Nino is no match for a dominant teleconnection. A strong AO and NAO are most favorable for a consistently cold and snowy winter in the interior Northeast, but it is a finicky setup to get it just right for us (H over Greenland can't be too far east or west, for example). I learned last winter that an negative EPO can really affect our weather…more so for the midwest! They really got hit with cold and snow last winter - we just got in on the periphery.

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  44. How much rain did everyone get? My rain gauge was full by mid afternoon. More than 5 inches in Greece. Imagine how much snow that would have been ��

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    1. Depending on temperature and other factors, we'd be talking 50-100 inches of snow. Just the thought makes me a little frisky.

      For the past few months I've been in Buffalo AKA the synoptic donut hole of the Northeast, so naturally as this was a synoptic event I was smack dab in the middle of relatively low rainfall amounts compared to surrounding areas. About three quarters of an inch in total. Not that I'm disappointed or anything seeing that those surrounding areas had some pretty substantial flood damage in spots. I read earlier that a spotter in Honeoye came in with 5.50 inches at 11:26 AM, which was a few hours before the moderate/heavy rainfall had ended. I'm really curious to see what their final total is, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being well over 6 inches.

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  45. Its been 15 years or more since my yard flooded like that

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  46. But it has not been a wet cool summer according to Anon July 25th at 8:06. We just had our wettest July in recorded history. This summer has been wet and cool.

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  47. Nice try anon 742, but I posted that days before the record rainfall.

    Perhaps it's a matter of perspective, but a month where 3-4 rainy days made up the vast bulk of the precip doesn't necessarily mean it was a wet month in terms that wetness interfered with a lot of outdoor activities. In absolute precip yes, but most days rain didn't interfere with outdoor activities.

    The facts remain, June was below normal precip. July well above but most came on 1 day followed by three others.

    We've only had 5 cloudy days this month. We've had partial to full sun the other 24... not too bad.

    Before I posted on the 25th, July was less than a degree below normal. Hardly cool unless you'd say that less than a degree above normal would be considered "HOT?" I don't think so.

    As for your proclamation on the 25th@3:24AM that "After Friday the weather looks terrible. It is going to be an early fall." You were dead wrong. Saturday and Sunday were beautiful warm days. Yes Monday through Thursday this week will be cool and but then we warm back up to very normal temps.

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