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Monday, September 22

Arrival of Fall = Leaf Peeping Time!

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Say "see ya" to summer! Fall arrives at 10:29 Monday night. As such, it's time to bring back the fall foliage map. While we are just starting to see some shades of yellow and orange in a few trees locally, the best area to see some good fall colors is east of Rochester and into the Adirondacks. Cool nights, and lots of sunshine this week should help the colors pop out a bit more. Perhaps a trip to Letchworth is in the plans for the upcoming weekend? Regardless, enjoy the fabulous weather this week!

66 comments:

  1. Nearly summer-like for awhile starting later this week. Happy summerfall...or would it be fallsummer? Summerautumnfrankenfall...yeah there we go, happy summerautumnfrankenfall everybody!

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  2. That's ok. This is some of the nicest weather of whole year. We'll have 6 months to talk about possible snows. I will stop and smell the ... just starting to change leaves? Fall is so much nicer than early spring in my opinion. Fairly dry. At least initially. People aren't bitter about snow yet.

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    Replies
    1. Couldn't agree more. Spring is often frustrating, as winter and summer fight it out and it gives us the season of mud.

      This September has been mostly stellar.

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  3. This is some awesome fall weather! Generally a great September that will end strong. I guess it's mother nature's way of balancing things out for a poor August.

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  4. I didn't catch the afternoon news but I just read Scott's tweet about him having a "little spell" during the broadcast. Could someone fill me in on what happened perchance?

    NWS Buffalo did a little sneak preview look into the upcoming winter in the Climate section of the discussion. Here is the full text for convenience:

    "THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING A NEUTRAL TO WEAK ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. A SUITE OF THEIR DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WEATHER FOR OUR REGION.

    WHILE THE PHASE OF THE ENSO EVENT (EL NINO VERSUS LA NINA) IS IMPORTANT TO WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK... LOCAL RESEARCH HAS FOUND A MODERATE TO STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSO EVENT AND THE TREND IN TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE `WARMEST` WINTER MONTHS (AS DEFINED BY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE) HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS...WHILE THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FOR HARSH WINTERS.

    SINCE 1950...18 OF THE TOP 20 `COLDEST` WINTERS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE TAKEN PLACE DURING A WEAK TO NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE TELECONNECTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET STREAM PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS FREQUENT INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR AND CAN BE REINFORCED BY A WINTER THAT FEATURES RIDGING ACROSS GREENLAND. SUPPORTING THIS ARGUMENT IS ANOTHER INTERESTING SET OF STATISTICS. SINCE 1950...WE HAVE HAD THREE WINTERS WHERE ALL FIVE WINTER MONTHS (NOV-MARCH) HAVE AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL...AND FIVE WINTERS WHERE FOUR OF THE FIVE MONTHS WERE BELOW NORMAL...ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS.

    WHILE THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT HARSH WINTER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ONE HAS TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN USING JUST ONE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN MAKING LONG RANGE FORECASTING THOUGH. FOR EXAMPLE...A PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOW COULD HELP TO FLATTEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THEREBY NEGATE A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC."

    Summarized: weak El Nino is still expected for winter, colder than normal winter is favored, low confidence due to unforeseeables such as teleconnections. Basically stuff we here at the News 8 Weather Blog have already known for awhile ;)

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  5. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 25, 2014 at 9:35 PM

    Yeah, C(4), this is not news, yet more validation of a pattern that we have seen developing for months. As mentioned previously, last year was solid proof that one teleconnection/pattern/ENSO event does NOT indicate a pattern typically matched to such event.

    I will be interested in seeing the October snowpack reports from Siberia and the Arctic Circle...

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  6. The fall colors are starting to come out.

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  7. This is some crazy good weather! The NWS forecast through next Thursday shows no precip, light winds, sun and 70's. Could we go 10 plus days without rain?

    If I could set a dial for fall weather this would be it!

    Hopefully mother nature is saving the precip and cold air till winter, when it makes us snow lovers happy!

    Andy

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  8. Another week next week without rain. Awesome. This is the best weather imaginable. People will start crying how we need rain. Keep it away.

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    Replies
    1. "People will start crying how we need rain."

      And for good reason...living things kind of need water or else they will die. I'll be enjoying the dry pattern as much as I can, but we'll definitely need rain at some point to make up the expanding deficit.

      Delete
  9. Aw man I had no idea Scott had a pacemaker. Best wishes to him, hope they can get that thing fixed up good.

    Fun fact: the pacemaker was invented by a man from WNY.

    The only thing that would make this pattern better is if it was coming on the heels of a very wet pattern. Unfortunately we've been quite dry for the past month or so, and by the time this highly unusual dry spell breaks we may be talking about minor drought conditions.

    Michael Ventrice believes that the atmosphere has finally begun to reflect an El Nino pattern:
    http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-being-felt-by-the-atmosphere/

    And here's a somewhat alarming statistic: as of this date, September 26th, the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season has produced a grand total of 5 named systems. Things will remain unfavorable for the foreseeable future as well. Low tropical activity in the Atlantic is pretty typical of a developing El Nino, although the fact that we've had less than a half dozen this far into the season probably has more to do with the prevailing pattern rather than the El Nino. If we were dealing with a stronger El Nino as opposed to a (projected) weak event, then I'd say it has more to do with El Nino.

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  10. This will not be good for snow lovers, correct. This will mean a mild winter?

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    Replies
    1. Quite the opposite actually...weak El Nino events tend to produce colder winters in the Northeast. In fact, several of our nastier and snowier winters have happened during a weak El Nino. If we ended up with a strong El Nino instead then we'd be talking about the potential for a mild winter, but at this point the odds of that are negligibly small. And remember, at this juncture we're dealing strictly with low confidence regarding the actual winter season. Many factors have yet to manifest.

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    2. I want to clarify: the odds of a warm winter are NOT negligibly small, I was referring to the odds of a strong El Nino.

      Delete
  11. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 28, 2014 at 8:49 PM

    CCCC - There is some satellite imagery out that shows an above average snowpack in Siberia already - a good sign

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  12. There was some argument last year if the snow build up in September counted. Not sure how that ended.

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  13. Its possible that the snow build up actually matters for the duration of the fall season. I vaguely remember seeing that the snow growth in November could also factor in.

    Completely unrelated: has anyone else ever pondered the possibility that a few of us faceless blog people have encountered each other in real life? Like, Chris is just moseying on down the street in Penfield and then Snowdog zooms by in his souped-up Maserati or something. Or CCCC is in Walmart buying a 400-pack of Genny while Caledonia fights off hordes of frisky women (men?) in front of the registers.

    Or what if this whole blog is just Andrew posting under multiple names?
    What if Andrew was actually Scott the whole time?

    i'm not intoxicated i swear ._.

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    Replies
    1. Andrew now in PenfieldSeptember 29, 2014 at 8:20 PM

      When I talk weather, sometimes I feel like people see me as the Captain on Police Academy who had "DORK" sunblocked on his chest at the beach

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 29, 2014 at 8:21 PM

      ^LOL^

      Delete
  14. I must CCCC that I have often wondered the same thing! And what we really care about is the snowpack in October as this seems to be the best predictor of how our winter might turn out. Chris already mentioned an above average snowpack and I would have to agree that it is a good sign. Models are already hinting at a chunk of pretty cold air visiting our neck of the woods as early as this upcoming weekend...

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  15. WHERE DO YOU GUYS GO FOR WEATHER MODELS. NOAA DOES NOT HAVE THEM ANY MORE. I GET AN ERROR PAGE.

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    Replies
    1. Just verified that the NOAA page still has the GFS and the NAM. Don't know what went wrong for you.

      But while I'm here I'll list out the sites I use:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com (GFS, Euro, NAM and RAP)
      http://meteocentre.com/models (GFS, Euro, NAM, GGEM, RGEM, RAP, SREF maps)
      http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html (RGEM simulated radar)
      http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= (a whole potpourri plus GFS, Euro and GGEM ensemble means)
      http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots (GFS ensemble mean/members)
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem (NAVGEM)
      http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html (GGEM ensemble mean/members)
      http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus (DGEX)
      http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KROC&model=nam&time=current&field=prec (NAM and GFS in graph form)
      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130207&RT=09&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=ROC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.3948150823389&mLON=-78.79436171875&mTYP=roadmap (SREF plumes)

      And just for kicks, I go here for historical surface maps dating back to 1979:

      http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1979.html

      Now everyone can bookmark these and be a massive nerd like me :P

      Delete
  16. Looks like our dry spell is going to be broken by the first strong cutter system of the fall season Friday night. Strong downsloping may severely limit how much rainfall we get, so I have doubts about anything truly substantial. Not an ideal track for high wind either as it tracks NNW across the western Great Lakes, but advisory level gusts aren't out of the question.

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  17. Keep the rain away.

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    Replies
    1. We're running nearly 2 inches below normal on rainfall this month, we kind of really need it to rain. Plants are living things too...

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  18. First of all, I'm glad that Scott made out well today with his pacemaker! Get well quickly, Scott. Secondly, CCCC I love what you said about whether any of us have actually met. I always read the comments on Facebook and wonder if any of them are any of you!! I'm looking forward to reading all of your prognostications this up-coming winter! Bring it on!!!

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    Replies
    1. Now let's hope there aren't any blue wires crossing red ones in that thing...

      I can say with certainty that none of the facebook comments are me, since I don't have a facebook account. Even if I did there would be zero chance anyone could tell it was me, since the name I use here is nowhere close to my real name or even my real gender. I bet that if I go on facebook right now I'll see someone named Snowluver McColdmiser though :P

      Delete
  19. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 30, 2014 at 8:21 PM

    Perhaps the regulars on the blog who are not chiming in from Rochester Psych Center will get invited into the studio and offer our input on the upcoming winter for the Winter Weather Special…??? Hint, hint!

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    Replies
    1. Have you seen the novellas I leave here on a regular basis? The weather segment wouldn't end until sunrise the next day...

      Delete
  20. Some of us are about to see that much needed rain a lot earlier than expected...

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  21. We ended the month over 2 inches below normal in rainfall. Amazing after this very wet summer. We are only .38 above normal for the year. I am sure we will make up for it. We always do.

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    Replies
    1. Actually I think we already mostly made up for it with a dry and warm September.

      Andy

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  22. I look forward the first frost to make my grass go dormant. I have other things to do besides mow it.

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    Replies
    1. Why mow the lawn when you can snow blow the driveway!

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  23. This is just absolutely hilarious, I'm watching King of the Hill right now and in the episode Channel 84 hires a new weather person named Irv Bennett. He just has to be a version of me from a cartoon universe, his essentially eidetic memory of every weather event leaves no other possibility. It's actually scaring me how close his character is to myself. I'm definitely more handsome though XD

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  24. Any guesses on when we think the first snowfall will be. Lets have a friendly competition.

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  25. First flakes or accumulation?

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  26. Chris now in PenfieldOctober 3, 2014 at 7:01 AM

    Considering the pattern "evolution" (not change) coming, then a brief return, then back again…my guess for first flakes would be Nov.1; first snowfall (1" + on ground) would be Nov. 25.

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  27. There will be at least one blizzard and a super sized PV within the next 5 months in the Flower City. Mark kit down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldOctober 3, 2014 at 3:13 PM

      I love it!

      Delete
  28. First flakes: November 8th
    First measurable (0.1"+): November 15th
    First inch or more: November 23rd

    I can see winter as a whole being a bit slow to start.

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  29. Keep an eye on Tropical Storm Simon out in the Eastern Pacific, there's a chance that its remnants could cross the country late next week and deliver heavy rain to the Northeast.

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    Replies
    1. And Typhoon Phanfone.. recurve and it's associated trough in the East the following week. Maybe I will go with first flakes October 15th? Nah..too early. Or is it?

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    2. I feel like some areas could see flakes at some point within the next week or so, otherwise I don't see it happening until November. The second half of October is shaping up to be on the warm side.

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  30. Chris now in PenfieldOctober 3, 2014 at 3:14 PM

    Low pressure heading our way is really kicking up the SE winds around here.

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    Replies
    1. Tell me about it...gusts are over 40 mph at the airport right now. Pre-frontal precip is on our doorstep.

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  31. There will be a major Blizzard in the Flower City by March 15th. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  32. Reminder that the GFS will be undergoing major upgrades in November, which should put it on par with the international model suites.

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  33. The fall colors so far this year are dull.

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    Replies
    1. And here I was told they would be brilliant this year...so much for that idea.

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    2. Aren't they dull because we haven't had any cold, frosty nights?

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    3. Don't know for sure, I'm not entirely familiar with what makes leaf changes tick.

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  34. Sizable snow cover expansion expected across Siberia through the next week or so:
    https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10659209_755820861131841_5462935533235659016_n.jpg?oh=565213ca9ed28f38ede78cf761ced3e7&oe=54B46823

    Latest Euro monthly indicates a mild November followed by a wet (snowy?) December and cold January through March, coupled with a weak El Nino:
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077

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  35. What does the weak El Nino mean for our winter CCCC?

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    Replies
    1. It could translate to a colder and snowier winter than average. Note: COULD, not WILL. As of now though there are more signs pointing towards a cold winter than a mild one. Brett Anderson also seems to be leaning towards a cold winter.

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    2. I want to add, for what has to be the 1000th time and for people who might not be in the know, that neutral ENSO/weak El Nino events tend to correlate more with cold winters than mild ones. Hence why this one "could" translate to a cold winter, with a mild one appearing to be less likely.

      Delete
  36. Spectacular fall day today. Winter can take its time getting here if it wants. Just as long as it gets here eventually

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    Replies
    1. Absolutely, and being where we are it always gets here eventually. By this time on Saturday I'll be basking in the spectacular fall-ness atop NY State's highest point.

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  37. Nice hard frost last night. Looks like a miserable week of clouds and rain though.

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  38. Wife says it is going to be really bad winter because the squirrels are acting crazy. That is all I need. Get ready for a lot of snow and cold she knows.

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  39. My entire body aches like hell but I made it back from the Adirondacks late last night mostly alive. The fall-ness up there wasn't as spectacular as I thought it would be as cloud cover dominated unexpectedly. The summit of Mount Marcy was coated with a thin layer of melting snow, and there were even some light flurries on my way back down. I've decided to make actual use of my Google+ account and uploaded some loosely weather-related photos of the snow cover.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ...except I'm still trying to figure out how to make them actually viewable -_-

      Delete

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