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Monday, September 8

Can You Feel the Fall Air?

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Monday started a new week, and it felt like we started a new season, too! Temperatures dipped into the mid and upper 40s across WNY. 47° was the official low at the airport, making it the "coldest" we've been since last Spring, specifically May 30th, when it was also 47 degrees. The beginning of this week will be seasonably warm, but a potent cold front slices through WNY Thursday morning, with lows dropping into the mid 40s by the weekend, and we may struggle to make it out of the 50s on Saturday. Do you like fall? I hope so!

18 comments:

  1. I like fall if it's a gradual thing. I love the slow descent into the heart of winter.

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  2. Gonna be down right chilly this weekend. Love fall.

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  3. Hope the forecast is wrong for Saturday. 50's is way too cool for September. Please little or no rain.

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  4. So. Do people thing this will be a colder snowier winter than usual for the Eastern US? What about locally? I've heard that it is supposed to get cold early?

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  5. There will be 2 polar vortexes with wind chills approaching minus 40 for a few days and 2 blizzards within the next 6 months in the Flower City. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  6. Rapid City, SD saw their earliest measurable snowfall on record today at 1.6 inches. Calgary has been crippled by over a foot of dense, wet snow which fell yesterday throughout the day. Pretty freaky that we're already talking about snow in the Lower 48/southern Canada and calendar summer isn't even over yet. Some flakes might even occur as far south as Denver during the overnight. But before anyone interprets that as a sign of things to come for us, it should be noted that we experienced a freak winter pattern during mid October 2006, and didn't get even a whiff of winter for another 3 months afterward.

    I've heard a wide range of predictions for the upcoming winter...anything from very warm to even colder than last winter. As is nearly always the case with extremes, the ultimate truth will likely fall somewhere in the middle. As of now the equatorial Pacific still appears to be on track for weak El Nino conditions to develop, or at the bare minimum a warm neutral phase. That would be a bit more supportive of near to above normal snowfall, barring any calamitously strong and persistent teleconnection phases. Yes, I know I'm saying nothing that I haven't already said over the past few months, but we won't start to see any more predictors reveal themselves until October when Siberian snow cover comes into play.

    Here is something new though: I'm going to chuck up an early hail mary and go with slightly below normal temps and near normal snowfall. We've had a lengthy stretch of abnormal/borderline extreme winters lately, so I pick this one to manifest as a more standard winter and break the streak. This unfortunately entails falling 2 blizzards shy of Anon's 5:33 prediction. Then again, we all got burned last winter when we dared to doubt the crystal ball...

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  7. I was just in the Pultneyville/Williamson area trying to view the northern lights because the sky looked clear when I decided to go. Danged cloud deck sitting right over the lake :< pretty sure there was very little to see anyway. At least Pultneyville is a pretty nice area so that was a plus.

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  8. Scottie thinks we might see flakes in the viewing area before September is over...hhhhnnnnnggggg

    Bills are 2-0...HHHHHNNNNNNGGGGGGNNNGGGGGG

    Good show, I like what I'm seeing out of life lately.

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  9. Is the new kid on the block occupying the noon forecast slot going to make an appearance on the blog? Or has Scott told him enough horror stories to keep him away?

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  10. The NOAA states that this winter will be warmer than normal.

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    Replies
    1. They always do.

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    2. Yeah, warmer by a teensy eensy little tenth of a degree. So essentially near normal temperatures. And as Anon 7:27 correctly states, they always predict a warmer than normal winter. NOAA's seasonal forecasts are the most conservative you'll find, and the only factor they give any serious weight to is the long term trend of global warming. They seem particularly gung-ho on the Western states being warmer than normal though.

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  11. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 19, 2014 at 8:45 PM

    If the western states are going to be warmer, than the eastern states will be colder. That whole trough - ridge thing.

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    1. Then there's also the possibility that they have it completely backwards and instead we're looking at a western trough/eastern ridge pattern. But let's not think about that for now...

      I'm left wondering if it's possible that we could see a ridge on one side of the country with more of a zonal flow/shallower trough on the other side. I seem to vaguely recall some patterns where something like that happened.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 20, 2014 at 10:47 PM

      Can there be ridging and a zonal flow at the same time within the CONUS?

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  12. Looks as if the early fall could be pretty tranquil and relatively mild.

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