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Tuesday, December 16

A NOR'EASTER GIFT WRAPPED FOR CHRISTMAS?


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

As our snow continues to melt, we will turn our attention to a significant pattern shift that will occur next week.  The West coast, which has seen a parade of storms recently, will see upper level ridging occur early next week.  This will help dig an upper level trough over the Eastern third of the U.S. beginning Tuesday or Wednesday.  At the surface, low pressure over the Great Lakes will likely transfer energy to a coastal storm sometime on Christmas Eve day.  This low has the potential to produce a significant Christmas Day snow fall in the Northeast.

Over the next 5 days, long range guidance will vary greatly so at this point it's only speculation.  Once we get to about 84 hours out (Sunday Night) we'll know much more about what type of storm we are dealing with for Christmas.

Hey it's fun to talk about in the mean time, personally I LOVE a Christmas storm.  The last significant one we had in Rochester was back in 2002 when 12.3" fell on Rochester!

163 comments:

  1. Oh good lord I have to travel during the evening on Christmas Eve...well if it comes down to battling my way through 80 miles of hellfire and brimstone then I say bring it on.

    ReplyDelete
  2. U know it has potential if Scott is talking about it this far in advance. He usually does not like to talk about potential storms this far out which I understand.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The GFS shows a Doozy of a storm for Christmas Eve and day and beyond. Slow mover as well. Could be a significant storm with high winds as well. The GFS has been pretty steady showing this storm.

    ReplyDelete
  4. And I'll b in NC :-( Lol. Guess I'll have some shoveling to do when we get home!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey why are you complaining -- folks usually talk about once again we missed out on the big one. So -- you don't get home for Christmas -- big deal. Just enjoy the Winter Snow Storm, or who knows maybe it will be a Blizzard in the Flower City.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Folks you are way ahead of your selves. The chances that this is a big snow storm for Rochester is slim at this point 7 days out. Please do not get people nervous who may be traveling with this false bravado talk and predictions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have every reason to be nervous even at this juncture.

      Delete
  7. This has a much higher chance of being a big rain storm for Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Why should anyone believe the predictions of an Anonymous poster over those whom show their identity?

    Ignore anons predictions!

    ReplyDelete
  9. This has a much higher chance of being a big rain storm for Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No way. Look at the models. It may start as rain but change to snow quickly once the energy transferes to the coast and wraps cold air in.

      Delete
  10. If you look at the ticker at the bottom of 10.2 it is showing mid 40's through Wednesday. So I don't get it. Big snow storm? Big rain is more like it. The weather geeks do this every year. WAIT UNTIL CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!! it will be the big snowstorm of all time. Look, people have to travel. People have to get to church. Can we all make a vow to stop the snow hype. Please.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not a chance of it being rain. It may start out as rain but quickly change to snow.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 17, 2014 at 7:03 PM

      Sorry, but we have had snow or snow storms on or near Christmas for three of past four years. Perhaps the weather geeks do this every year because it happens nearly every year. Lately, at least.

      Delete
  11. On NOAA's website, the 6-10 day outlook shows above normal precip. for us (this is Dec. 22-26th) and temps that are strongly above normal. Like in the 50s.

    So I don't get all the snow stuff.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. are you new to this blog?

      Delete
    2. That changes on a daily basis. Starting next week a BIG pattern change to cold and snowy takes place. The NWS is talking about it and our local METS are talking about.

      Delete
    3. The CPC outlooks show probabilities, not anomalies. And in any event we aren't heading to a strongly above normal temperature regime any time soon.

      Delete
  12. In addition to what the local Mets are saying, the NWS is saying this in their forecast discussion.
    Cold is coming and a high impact event in the NE quarter of the country. Like Scott said, it won't be till around Sunday that we have a better idea.

    EXPECT MID WINTER COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM USHERING IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AROUND
    CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND COMPLEXITY OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN
    FOCUSING ON THE OUTPUT OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS POINTLESS AT THIS
    TIME RANGE...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
    CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. NONETHELESS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
    AROUND THE HOLIDAY APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  13. Somewhere in the NE...

    Let me guess. Binghamton and Albany :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could be, but too early to tell. We were in the sweet spot for the last storm that was supposed to be too far east.

      Patience Grasshopper.

      Delete
  14. There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 9 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 17, 2014 at 7:05 PM

      Makes me giggle every time. Not sure why. Perhaps mental health issues.

      Delete
  15. Latest GFS showing a monster LP system going west young man. Did anyone say build an arc?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Who knows what is going to happen but it is pretty amazing that both the Euro and GFS have a storm that is a sub 970 barometric pressure reading. That is a bomb of a storm.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I believe nothing until the great CCCC weighs in with an opinion. He has been unusually quiet about this while as one poster noted Scott unusually posting this early about a potential storm.

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  18. What an absolute monstrosity on these models right now...in fact the 12z GFS nukes it down to 958 mb near Lake Huron. The amount of wind with a storm like that would be astounding. Snow amounts are paltry but enough wind would make a light snow shower look like an all-out blizzard. We're still very early in the game but I think the general scenario is just about set. We're going to see some kind of intense system track over the Great Lakes right around Christmas Eve, possibly bombing out as it moves along. Steady rain would transition over to dry slotting before a period of light wraparound snow and strong wind. The relatively minor rate of snowfall would be severely exacerbated by the wind, leading to significant impacts despite the absence of significant snow amounts. Lake effect off of Erie is also a possibility, but I imagine it would be cellular due to immense shear aloft. In any event the "high impact" wording in the NWS discussion is more than just baseless speculation at this point. Future model runs will probably decrease the storm's intensity and shift its definite track in a multitude of directions, but in all likelihood we're looking at some sort of significant weather for Christmas.

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  19. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro shows in a few hours.

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  20. Yes, GFS BLOWS THIS UP! Warm initially, cold on the backside. If you go by this, we would have heavy rain Christmas Eve, followed by a full-on blizzard Christmas evening...IF you go by this. I hate the be the negative Nancy, but this is still 7+ days out and things will change many times over by Tuesday of next week. So again, we look, hope, and look again every late morning and evening! (I'll be watching with you)!

    Stacey

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    Replies
    1. Believe me, compared to the "too far east we never get storms waaah" crowd you aren't even close to being a negative Nancy. Actually you aren't being negative at all, just keeping things in perspective like we should all be doing (that goes double for you blizzard mark-it-down guy :P ).

      This will be an interesting week's worth of tracking for sure.

      Delete
  21. See post by anon 11:42am?

    ReplyDelete
  22. What's also astounding is that the model depictions have such an outrageously strong storm that it leaves enough confluence to completely shred the one behind it.

    Meanwhile the GGEM has weighed in with a strong coastal, but that model hasn't had a clue for the past few days.

    ReplyDelete
  23. With all this talk about Blizzard and Winter Storm to hit on Christmas Day. Play it safe and begin to look at alternate plans for Christmas Eve and Day. Who wants to be on the roads traveling to relatives in a blizzard -- remember the folks who got stuck on the Thruway when Buffalo got hit. Need to keep that in mind. Start have those conversations now with family -- so they won't be too disappointed, along with yourself, if you are home alone for Christmas and not with them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The situation in Buffalo was completely different from any possible scenario here. I would imagine travel would still be possible even with a worst case scenario, but I do agree that people with travel plans might want to remain flexible with their timing. Also keep in mind that the situation could still evolve to a point where any sensible impacts are relatively minor.

      Delete
    2. Except for people like me, a church musician, who MUST be at work. No choice. I have emailed the priest to find out if we can set up a contingency plan if I can't be there. It is good to know that C. Eve looks more rain than snow. I can drive in rain.

      Delete
  24. All I want for Christmas is my Two White Feet. My Two White Feet!

    kidding. Mostly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Feet yes. Full body coverage, no. People need to travel.

      Delete
    2. Relax. It's way too early to say the sky is falling. Besides we will get what mother nature gives us and she won't be influenced by people on any blog. The key is to listen to the forecast and plan.

      There has only been a few storms over many decades that have been paralyzing to ROC, so odds are on your side.

      Delete
    3. Lets now forget the Blizzard last year.

      Delete
    4. Exactly! So odds are against having a blizzard in back to back years. And I reiterate, it's still too early to get crazy about this.

      Delete
  25. The recent Euro shows the east coast getting warm after Christmas?

    ReplyDelete
  26. i find it completely irresponsible for anyone to be forecasting weather this far out, this is why i watch the buffalo news, they refuse to fall into sensationilism this far out and making people nervous... kevin williams and scott hetsko started forecasting this junk 2 days ago..... gimme a break!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. kw started about a month ago.

      Delete
  27. glenn johnson does'nt do drama so ill be using the wham site for now on.....enough with these hacks... its all about ratings anyhow...tune in at 6 for updates on the BIG christmas storm 7 days out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is funny how you mention this. After WHAM starting broadcasting on FOX at 10, I have been watching more of Glenn Johnson, and though I still like Scott and the team, I find Glenn not one for sensationalism and all the hype concerning the weather.

      Delete
    2. Amen. GJ is the king of nonsensationalism. JN is the king of cliches. And KW pees his pants anytime it is going to snow.

      Delete
    3. Can we stop the meteorologist bashing and just talk about the weather? Didn't you learn in church not to gossip?

      Delete
    4. You are right...I wonder what Governor Cuomo's forecast is.

      Delete
  28. snow dog is a troll, get a life

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  29. This just in. The NWS is saying that this system for the Christmas time frame will be a rain and wind event, with the Winds being the story. Of course like the Weather always does, this could change, but it looks to warm to produce snow.

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  30. I currently see nothing in the way of big snows for WNY over the Christmas holiday. It looks to be a big time wind event here with the heavy snows west into upper lakes area. I am not getting excited at this point in time. It also appears the models are starting to agree on a strong great lakes system over a coastal transfer or take over. Wind driven rain for the holidays :(

    ReplyDelete
  31. These comments are a complete tire fire right now...alright, time to knock some sense into the peanut gallery. NWS discussion:

    "A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

    ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS. MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

    LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST STILL A WEEK AWAY."

    WPC discussion:

    "AFOREMENTIONED 'BUCKLING' OF THE PACIFIC JET ---IN THE OVERVIEW--- ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT/SUN APPEARED TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD WARM FRONT THAT SURGES QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ON MONDAY...THE FAST-MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW---NOSE OF THIS PACIFIC JET CONFIGURATION ALOFT--SUPPORTS THE DEEPENING OF LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND THE BIRTH OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CYCLONE---MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER HALF OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ITS 'MORPHOLOGY' AROUND DAY 6...IN THE MIDWEST---APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF ITS DEPTH AND FORWARD MOTION IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ONE OF THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS IS---CAN THE SURFACE CYCLONE DRAW UPON ENOUGH COLDER...CANADIAN AIR AND PULL THAT COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD FASTER/ENOUGH---TO INTENSIFY AND AMPLIFY---THE ENTIRE PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION---IN TIME FOR THE PEAK CHRISTMAS TRAVEL 'WINDOW'? THE SHORT ANSWER IS---YES. DO THE 17/00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE ALL THE 'MORPHOLOGY' DETAILS "DOWN PAT"---THE ANSWER IS NO. THE 'NO' PART OF THE ANSWER IS ON THE WINTER WEATHER SIDE--AND WHO MAY/MAY NOT SEE A 'WHITE CHRISTMAS' MORNING.

    WHAT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE 17/00Z GUIDANCE IS...THERE WILL BE A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EMERGING AND THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE--WITH A DISTINCT WINTER SIDE---ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY---AND WET SIDE AHEAD OF THE DEEPER---COLD AIRMASS THAT IS RAIN."

    Don Paul:

    "Confidence in a deep, major storm system is growing. Confidence in regional impact remains much lower, as it should be at this stage."

    There you have it...a strong system will very likely impact the Great Lakes around the Christmas time frame, with varying regional impacts still uncertain. Just the facts, no hype involved. Now settle down and play nice.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Some people are wondering how a storm tracking to our west could possibly give us snow. Here's how:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121712/ecmwf_T850_neus_9.png

    A low that deep is going to have a decent amount of wraparound precipitation while subfreezing 850 temps work around the southern periphery of the system, sufficient to produce at least a minor accumulation. We don't need a coastal transfer to get snow, and it's not like those solutions were much better for snow than the current ones anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  33. And as for the warm Atlantic ridge the Euro depicts after the storm, I'm left wondering what would possibly support that kind of thing. A pumped Atlantic ridge is a strong negative PNA signature, but as far as I know we aren't heading into a strong negative PNA regime anytime soon. My guess is that the Euro will de-amplify that particular feature as we draw closer to that time frame.

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  34. Well if you wanted an ideal low track for some serious winter weather in these parts, then the 18z GFS is your best friend. It bombs a low down to 960 mb as it moves northward through eastern NYS, delivering a true blizzard with heavy snow. Before anyone starts waxing poetic about it let me be the first to say that it has absolutely zero support from anything else, ensembles or otherwise. This is probably the start of the usual series of GFS tricks we've gotten used to over the years, and I expect it to produce more crazy solutions through the weekend before it falls back in line with the steady consensus of a Great Lakes track.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GFS idiot dance

      Delete
    2. Thing is that the GFS actually managed to idiot dance its way to being completely correct about this weekend, which is what the post spawning that term was about in the first place. On a related note...

      "I think the no-storm scenario depicted in the GGEM can be safely ruled out..." -Me

      Getting spanked by mother nature is no fun at all -_- thankfully I wasn't alone in that thought so I can share my butthurt with a bunch of other people.
      I'm still setting the odds of the GFS verifying at precisely zero, there is way more stacked against it this time than there was for this weekend.

      Delete
    3. I'm more interested in how this storm reshuffles the atmospheric playing field. Is it the pattern changer that gets me out of this boring, lukewarm pattern? I hope so! Might be a sickness to always be looking over the horizon and not be in awe of what is going on right outside my window. It's how I'm wired though.

      Delete
    4. I have pattern change thoughts in the back of my mind, but my main focus is always on immediate events. Sitting around chasing pattern changes that never came in 2011-12 left a permanent mark on my psyche, to the point where I'm always doubtful about such things until they become imminent. Even when everything looks teed up and I come here to post with confidence that a change is coming, from a strictly emotional standpoint I live in the mentality that the current pattern is the one we will have until the end of time, at least until I can see the winds of change roaring across the plains on something other than a model. It's how I manage to keep this hobby from consuming me during bad patterns, a rare case where divorcing from logic and reason can actually be a good thing. But to echo your sentiments this storm may very well be the one to cause the hemispheric configuration to change in a big way. We can already see signs of that on various global models, all of the teleconnections appear to be winding up for an icy haymaker as this behemoth imposes its will upon a huge chunk of the atmosphere.

      Delete
  35. It now looks like a rainstorm for Christmas Eve and Day for us as this storm now looks to go West of us. That is as of now. Is that what you see CCC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll be cold enough for snow by Christmas morning, with hopefully enough wraparound moisture for accumulating snow. This isn't your standard cutter storm.

      Delete
    2. Lots of snow so I can't go to my inlaws' house on C. Day?

      Delete
  36. All as I will say this far out is that I have never seen really seen a storm with the projected magnitude take a track depicted by the models. There will probably not be a solid consensus between the models until Sunday at the absolute earliest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/.a/6a0148c78b79ee970c017d407a4118970c-pi

      This one won't be such a prolific snow producer though.

      Delete
    2. A little before my time... But thanks for pulling some evidence out. The only way it produces that much snow is if somehow the GFS wasn't smoking crack on the 18z run.

      Delete
    3. And even though it will not happen, the 18z GFS would be up there with the worst snowstorm in Roc history.

      Delete
    4. How much snow does that model run depict?

      Delete
  37. Shocker of the century incoming: the 00z GFS has abandoned the apocalyptic WNY megablizzard from the 18z run. It's back to looking more similar to the other operational models, although it still presents its usual biases of later phasing and weaker shortwaves. A long time ago I noticed another quite peculiar bias in that model that is manifesting yet again with this system: it produces lake enhanced/lake effect snow across northwestern PA despite a WSW flow of air over Lake Erie. For this reason I would recommend not using the GFS for snow maps with this storm, even once it latches onto the eventual final track. It will not at any point have an accurate handle on the lake influence.

    ReplyDelete
  38. The Euro is now on board with a way West track. No white Christmas for us.

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  39. Yes this on all models is going west thus a rain fest for all. Also as predicted has decreased in strength a great deal.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Ok, I am concerned for those responsible for the last three posts as I do not feel you know you West from East. Try using the mnemonic "Never Eat Soggy Worms" and work way clockwise starting at North. Because the models are actually trying to ditch the megabomb scenario and are leaning toward a more traditional double barrel low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately trolls persist.

      Delete
  41. Channel 8 beginning to use the words "sizable", "significant", and "substantial" to describe Christmas Eve and Day for snow, cold, and wind. From what they are beginning to say, it will not be a good day to travel. Plus for Scott to begin to talk about this now, also lends some credibility to what is being projected.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow, they are beating Channel 10 at their own game this time. Channel 10 is being very quiet and very non-typically unapocolyptic about this one.

      Delete
    2. I wouldn't say that at all. Sizeable depends on perspective. It is currently projected to be a strong system with high winds, wind driven rain, changing to snow then sharply colder. Wind driven anything with drastic temperature change is fairly sizable and significant, especially when you may be traveling.

      Delete
  42. The Snowdog above was the imposter.

    ReplyDelete
  43. I wait word from The great and all knowing CCCC before I formulate my beliefs. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  44. A few things - first and foremost, this is still 6-7 days out!! The only reason this storm is being talked about (media included) more than a week beforehand is because of the holiday, travel plans, trying to give people somewhat of a heads up and, and yes, "will we have a white Christmas?" Soooo much will still change over the weekend. Yes, it looks like a significant storm. A significant snowstorm?? That we still don't know, and we've been saying that. Happy Holidays & storm hunting, people 😊⛄️

    Stacey

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for bringing some sanity to the board :)

      Delete
    2. Thanks, Stacey. You are awesome!!!!

      I just wish the media would stop the anxiety building, hype-roiling nonsense to drive the ratings up. You guys don't do that, and that is why, even though my wife insists on watching another channel, I look at Channel 8's forecast so I don't have to listen to the hyperbole.

      Delete
  45. Th 12z GFS which is the more accurate run shows is a much weaker LP than yesterday. This is not going to be a significant storm and it will be a rain maker as I said yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Putting "GFS" and "accurate" in the same sentence...what the hell is wrong with you?

      Delete
  46. Been good lately CCCC. Guess we will just have to see what the 1:00 pm Euro spits out today. My guess a much weaker storm and NW.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was "good" for precisely one single non-storm, and it had support from the GGEM as well. Otherwise it's been complete trash as per usual.

      Delete
  47. When in doubt, ride the ensemble means:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121800/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_28.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2014121800&fh=168

    The operationals have suddenly decided to bounce around with this thing and develop a coastal secondary. That's a very new development but would marginally increase our chances of significant snow. I say "marginally" because the operational models haven't had a clue since our storm last week. Meanwhile the ensembles have been painting essentially the same picture for several days in a row. And let's not forget that the relevant shortwaves have yet to be sampled, and probably won't be for at least a few more days. Basically nothing truly important has changed since yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  48. WPC says pooh on the operationals, sticks close to continuity:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbg_conus.gif
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mhwbg_conus.gif
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif

    ReplyDelete
  49. From the NWS out of PHIL; Thought it was interesting about CHristmas EVE/Day storm.

    WHAT IS INTERESTING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS HOW THEY ARE SEEMINGLY WEAKENING THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE LAKES ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER, STRONGER, PIECE OF PAC NW ENERGY TO PRODUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. IF THIS EASTWARD TREND AND CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES WE COULD BE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL

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  50. 12z Euro much weaker storm than yesterday and not a great run. People can relax Christmas Eve and day will be okay.

    ReplyDelete
  51. @whec_kwilliams
    Hmmm. Euro joining ranks of other models...shifting storm's energy east-ups ante for white Christmas in ROC....rain to snow. Still early!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The ever-snowlover can't deal with the fact that the storm is weird. He always is a kid at heart.

      Delete
    2. NWS shows above normal temps (barely in our area) and strongly shows above normal precip. This is a change from yesterday.

      NWS forecast for my town says RAIN C.Eve and cloudy on C. Day. Hmmmm...

      Delete
    3. "Truly I tell you, unless you change and become like little children, you will never enter the kingdom of heaven." - Jesus

      Delete
  52. KW's heart-kid is completely correct. The Euro is definitely more interesting for snow prospects now that it has a coastal instead of a Great Lakes behemoth, the second consecutive run with such a depiction. Starting off with rain is inevitable at this point given the presence of a strong northern stream shortwave, but depending upon the exact scenario a significant snowfall is still on the table once 850s crash to around -6C to -8C. On that note, the latest NWS discussion seems to insinuate that such temps aloft would be "marginal" for snow, which is completely off base unless you're located very close to the lake.

    Remember when I said to ride the ensemble means earlier? Well the newest means are all further east than before, following the trend established by the operational models. A look at the GFS ensemble members in particular reveals several big hits from cold sector precipitation, but also plenty of whiffs (i.e. rain to scattered flurries). The other major ensembles are also plagued by relatively large member spread. With so much uncertainty in specifics still remaining it would be foolish to latch onto a major snowstorm scenario and equally foolish to latch onto one devoid of snow. The only certainty right now is that the northeastern quadrant of the country will have a travel-disrupting event on its hands.

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  53. thanks, cccc. So basically there will be a storm, but who knows where it will hit.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Does not look good for a white christmas

    ReplyDelete
  55. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 18, 2014 at 9:12 PM

    I've noticed for the FOURTH TIME in a row that a forecasted warm-up (in this case, Tues-Wed) keeps getting reduced in its intensity the closer it gets...

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  56. Scott just on his weather cast did not seem to concerned about a storm on Christmas. Depicted a much different set-up than KW had. Scott had 1 LP pressure tour west while KW has 2 LPs with the one taking over on the coast quickly as the key for snow. Very different thoughts and set-ups.

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  57. Not looking good at all snow lovers and wishers of a white Christmas. I think we will be lucky to see flurries at this point. Christmas Eve will be gross and rainy. Not very Christmas like at all. Christmas day looks to be windy with a few flurries and brown grass. At least we had a white Thanksgiving.

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    Replies
    1. It may never snow again

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  58. What I do not get is how there would not be some serious lake effect snow some where with the winds? Where is our over night model update from the great CCCC?

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  59. I think the winds will be way to strong to get organized lake effect and the positioning of the low will only hit the standard snowbelts if it even forms.

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  60. Is this the real negative Snowdog?

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  61. Those posts above were NOT me!

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  62. I agree - this is a "weird" storm. Monster over the Great Lakes. My gut tells me the coastal storm takes off, which would put us on the colder side for longer, but will it steal the synoptic moisture away, as well? As far as lake effect goes, the wind speed will cut down on how much moisture is picked up from the lakes. I think our "white Christmas" will come from the initial slug of rain changing over to snow on Christmas Eve night, then some additional snow on Christmas. Again, just my "gut feeling" and this weekend's/Monday's runs will be uber important! We'll have a blog update coming today or tomorrow!

    Stacey

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    Replies
    1. And when I say the coastal storm takes off, I meant takes OVER. That is all :)

      Delete
    2. I'm really digging the blog enthusiasm from the News 8 Team this season.

      "Weather" or not we wind up digging on Christmas.

      Delete
  63. To me it looks like the models are back with a stronger primary low that heads west of us and a much weaker secondary low near the mid-atlantic. Not good for us if we want snow. Hopefull we will get some wraparound snow to coat the ground a little.

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  64. Storms that transfer energy have the biggest bust potential. At least it seems that way. Those are the ones that you are expecting 8 inches of snow and get the rug pulled out from under you in real time. You get stuck looking at frozen grass. Not saying that has anything to do with what is coming up..just saying the term "energy transfer" makes me nervous.

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  65. You're right - storms that transfer energy DO have the biggest bust potential, both ways. Those are the ones that can have a really pretty deformation zone and if you get stuck under it, you're "busted" with more snow than forecast. Or, the snow can seemingly skip right over you. It scares you? We're the ones who have to deal with the backlash of having a busted forecast on air - and all of you (and every viewer) busting on us...just saying, in THE most playful way ever :) 12Z GFS still insists on a stronger Great Lakes low and not much transfer to the much weaker coastal. That's just the GFS. One thing that seems constant though, is that the bulk of the moisture from this storm comes with the initial "warmer" surge Wednesday night. That may be our best chance, then a little wraparound/lake effect behind it. Winds are strong, but I think *something* will get started lake-wise.

    Stacey

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    Replies
    1. You should get all the backlash..it's you who controls the weather after all. Said in the second most playful way ever. :) I'm just hoping lake effect isn't the ONLY hope because I'm usually on the outside looking in at that.

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  66. I think these bits from the NWS discussion say all we need to take to heart for now:

    "...SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN..."
    "...COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS..."
    "...THIS COULD CHANGE..."
    "...STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN..."
    "...MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN..."
    "...SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE..."

    Otherwise Stacey is all over this thing right now so I don't have much additional input.

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    Replies
    1. And I agree 100% with the Weather Service, too. We're all just "chatting" here. Absolutely, positively nothing even remotely close to set in stone. Still 5 days out from the start, 6 days out from the snowier part!

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    2. I just hope we HAVE a snowier part...no one sings joyful songs about playing in the mud on Christmas :/

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    3. Dashing through the muck has a ring to it.

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  67. You know what would be just peachy? If NOAA could stop mulling around for like 5 seconds and get some recon flights out there for sampling. Then maybe a good deal of this model ridiculousness would be alleviated several days in advance of a major travel period. Yeah, that would be really swell...

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  68. Thanks for all the input Stacey. It is awesome.

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    Replies
    1. Seconded. It's nice having an actual expert around to provide actual expert analysis.

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    2. Thirded! I love this blog. I'm in no way a weather-nut, nor do I understand a lot of the the technical jargon - my MS is in Education - but I enjoy this blog thoroughly!!!

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  69. here we go with the c.y.a after all the dramatics earlier in the week, i got an idea, how about you dont say anything til its close enough to make a decent forecast? how about an apology to the people that read this blog scott ? people that went out and changed flights or plans they had after your " significant snow" forecast for christmas.... now im seeing flurries. irresponsible is all it is

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    Replies
    1. I got an idea, how about you go back and read exactly what Scott said about the storm potential. Actually, I think I'll bring it to you instead:

      "This low has the potential to produce a significant Christmas Day snow fall in the Northeast. Over the next 5 days, long range guidance will vary greatly so at this point it's only speculation. Once we get to about 84 hours out (Sunday Night) we'll know much more about what type of storm we are dealing with for Christmas."

      It's your own fault for honing in on the "significant snow" part and blatantly ignoring the other details expressing tremendous uncertainty. Now you're here gaslighting because you can't comprehend more than two words at a time. And last I checked we still have a ways to go before Christmas, so there is still a chance for significant snowfall. The real irresponsible behavior is knowing full well that forecast details change drastically outside of 3 to 4 days, yet still altering travel plans well in advance on the grounds of mere speculation. In short, quit blaming the forecaster for your own misjudgement.

      Delete
    2. Hey Anon 12:14, Like others have said, this is a blog with a high degree of speculation of what COULD happen. It's not a Forecast!

      If you or anyone else is such a simpleton to change travel plans based on blogging about events 6-10 days away, then perhaps you also need to pin your name and address on your ugly Christmas sweater so someone can help you find your way home!

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    3. Wow. Who is this jokster. Hopefully Scott and the rest do not listen to stupid statements like the one above.

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    4. What a clown...Dumbest statement ever...

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    5. This weather blog is set up specifically for SPECULATION. For chatter.

      If you want official forecasts go to the forecast page.

      We can't ask News 8 to share their insights, gut feelings, and musing. Then give them a hard time when those gut feelings fall apart a week later.

      Delete
  70. I got an idea. Why don't you stop visiting this Blog if you think it's "irresponsible"? This is a DISCUSSION not a forecast. This blog is supposed to be a place where the Mets can have a DISCUSSION about current/future weather with average Joes like us. If you cancelled plans due to the DISCUSSION on this blog, well, that speaks volumes in your intellect.

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    Replies
    1. anyone that cancels flight plans based on a forecast/analysis that is a week out is not that bright.

      Delete
  71. Does anyone else drive with their blinker on and then get pissed at people honking at them?

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  72. I would rather not plow snow all Christmas day, but I also like a white Christmas. I hate to miss out on any storm but, all storms mean plowing until it is over. I am very divided at the moment. I guess I don't mind if it rains over the Christmas holiday. Family time with our young daughter is worth more than double time.

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  73. The silence is deafening...well I'm glad to report that literally nothing has changed since yesterday, other than the NCEP servers acting wonky all day today.

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  74. Bernie Rayno tweeted that the 18z GFSo showed a definite shift of the upper level low to the SE.

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    1. He also cautioned in his video to keep an eye our for potential lake effect if you're in Buffalo...which I will be starting Wednesday evening \o/

      Personally I don't think 850 temps will be cold enough for pure lake effect, but lake enhancement certainly isn't out of the question. Metro Rochester could get involved in some of that as well with how strong the wind might be.

      Delete
  75. JN on his 6 weather cast said light snow out of this way more rain. When 10 is downplaying you know it is done.

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  76. What happened to this BIG pattern change that was supposed to come as well by Christmas week? Cold and snowy. Not gonna happen. In fact by next Friday we are back in the 40's.

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    Replies
    1. If it said mid teens by next Friday would you be posting like it had already happened? The pattern is changing. Sorry it doesn't meet your criteria of vodka cold and 3 feet of snow immediately.

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  77. No pattern change in fact the cold air is locked up way way up north. Mid to late January we may see the PV back.

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  78. Get ready for a wet not white Christmas. This storm is done unless we have a Christmas miracle. It is way west and there will not a 2nd low transfer.

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    Replies
    1. I think Christmas will be white, just a matter of how much.

      FOLLOWING THE
      FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
      LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
      THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
      LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
      SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
      AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
      CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
      POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

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  79. Definitely a wet Christmas and the advertised pattern change is not going to happen either. I am a little disappointed in both cases but there is nothing we can do about. Weather will do what weather will do. We had a nice sized storm last week. That may be it for quite awhile. We will see.

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  80. merry christmas everyone.....thats what happens when you irresponsibly try to create hype a week out.... significant snow...lmao. channel 8 is the worst. bye bye

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  81. please scroll to top of page and refer to snowdog and cccc initial posts and please dont ever take what these clowns say seriously...horrible and irresponsible

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    Replies
    1. I appreciate their posts, so I will always listen to what they have to say.

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  82. Where is the great CCCC with an update his silence is deafening.

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  83. i have a feeling that the 12z Euro is going to pain a different picture than what has been advertised as the GFS definitely strung out the initial front, yet kept the LP on the same track...

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  84. What picture do you think the Euro will paint Weatherguy?

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    Replies
    1. Further East with a quicker transition to snow, but honestly I'm just taking a shot in the dark based on the 12z GFS.

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  85. Punt formation for me on this one, things haven't been trending favorably for awhile at this point. The current crop of much weaker solutions won't get the job done regarding any appreciable snow. The pattern will definitely shift to a much colder look soon after Christmas but we may have to suffer through one more rainer to get there.

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    Replies
    1. ugh! Rain should be outlawed for Dec, Jan, Feb :)

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  86. CCCC we all saw that coming just hopeful thinking for a white Christmas. Punt it deep and wait until the next series. Mets have all calmed down.

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  87. Punt it 12z Euro NW and weak! Surprised Scott did jump on this possibility way early. He never does that and we see why.

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    Replies
    1. A lot of the model guidance depicted a very strong storm with unusual agreement on track and intensity, plus it's important to give people a heads up with the holiday approaching.

      Delete
  88. Also I'm not going to apologize for the fact that some idiot apparently needs to have his hand held through difficult concepts such as "uncertainty" and "speculation." I'm surprised his caregiver lets him near a computer to post these things, such severe mental handicaps should be more strictly contained than that.

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    Replies
    1. CCCC. You're supposed to be working on Letting it Go.

      The vast majority here appreciate your advanced interpretation of the models. Most of us have the common sense to tell the difference between early speculation and an actual forecast.

      Delete
    2. I tried to Let It Go but the bug up my butt kept thwarting those efforts :/

      Delete
    3. Is this the blog or the official forecast page? Have you ever claimed to be a professional weather forecaster? Do you make money by posting here? Don't stop doing what you do because some people can't seem to grasp pretty simple concepts.

      Delete
  89. I hear you CCCC but we are use to Scott being very cautious and when he posted this people really thought it was a real possibility and it is now going to be ugly rain.

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  90. Not so sure this is a done deal yet. The 12z runs tomorrow and Monday are the final pieces then everything will be sampled at the point.

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  91. I do hope this winter behaves differently as we head into the new year. This Decembers weather has been hard to stomach. Yes the earlier snowstorm was a nice surprise given the weather pattern we where in; however, the rest of December not so nice.

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  92. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 144 hours. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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